Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[MrSki]

Johnson can sit in a hot office on zoom all week like much of the rest of the country

Is there a pool at Chequers? Where he is holed up for the duration.

 

[elbows]

Because of whats happened with Scotlands number of positive cases, I am paying particular attention to their weekly report.

It looks like a situation where wastewater testing adds a significant new dimension to the picture:

The number of locations where the levels of Covid in wastewater are monitored has increased to 110 sites around Scotland. In contrast to Covid-19 case records, virus shedding into wastewater is a biological process. This means that wastewater data is unaffected by factors that impact whether testing is done. The level of wastewater (WW) Covid-19 levels continued to rise rapidly, reaching the highest levels observed. Increases are seen in a broad range of local authorities. At Hatton, which covers Dundee, wastewater levels in the last week rose to extremely high levels, substantially higher than in January. While this displays a large amount of variability, this shows a clear departure from case trends and represents the highest levels recorded in a major site.

So I can claim that Scotlands number of positive cases has peaked, but that doesnt mean the underlying reality is of a simple peak already having happened.


In terms of contact patterns during summer/while sschools are on summer holidays, this is how they describe that picture:

Changes in patterns of mixing and adherence to restrictions will impact on future case numbers. The Scottish Contact Survey measures times and settings that people mix where they could potentially spread Covid2. From this survey we can say that average contacts have decreased by approximately 18% in the last two weeks (comparing surveys pertaining to 17th June - 23rd June and 1st July - 7th July) with a current level of 3.8 daily contacts. Contacts within the work and other setting (contacts outside of the school, home and work) have decreased compared to two weeks prior by 37% and 13% respectively. Average contacts within the home setting have remained at similar levels over the same period. Mean contacts across all age groups have shown a reduction in comparison to two weeks prior with those aged between 18-29 reporting the largest decrease of 37%. The biggest decrease in interactions is seen between those aged 18-49 with those under 18, decreasing by at least 55%.

In their words there is considerable uncertainty about future projections. Maybe things will be a little clearer in a weeks time.

Coronavirus (COVID-19): state of the epidemic - 16 July 2021

This report brings together the different sources of evidence and data about the Covid epidemic to summarise the current situation, why we are at that place, and what is likely to happen next.

www.gov.scot

 

[elbows]

In the absense of a narrative about wastewater Covid levels in England, we'll have to treat any peak in positive cases found through the testing system with some caution. Would expect school holidays to impact on the testing system quite rapidly. If they dont start talking about how that compares to wastewater levels, we'll have to wait extra weeks to judge the situation via hospital admissions, and population survey testing systems like the ONS one and REACT.

 

[Orang Utan]

might keep him from trying to cheat on his missus for a few days

you jest but it could be one reason all those senior Tories were so keen to end lockdown

 

[elbows]

The extent to which wastewaster indicators are a bit laggy (eg reflecting all people currently infected, not just trends in the very latest infections) is not totally clear to me by the way. Need to take that into account when judging peaks etc using wastewater surveillance.

 

[ska invita]

88.6% of COVID-19 cases here are Delta

As they were here a few weeks back ... Would expect Portugal to follow similar trajectory to UK if your overall rules are similar to ours (though we also had schools to do incubation, whereas Portugal now has school holidays)

 

[platinumsage]

The extent to which wastewaster indicators are a bit laggy (eg reflecting all people currently infected, not just trends in the very latest infections) is not totally clear to me by the way. Need to take that into account when judging peaks etc using wastewater surveillance.

Lots to think about if comparing to January too. For example the delta variant and/or vaccination might affect the level of virus a person excretes into the sewage system.

 

[Dystopiary]

I'm sure part of the reason vaccination rates are low in some areas isn't because people are choosing not to get vaccinated but because many simply aren't able to access the system themselves and don't have the support to help them do so.

Yeah, I reckon that too. Glad the receptionist was decent though. Nice one for helping the guy.

 

[elbows]

Lots to think about if comparing to January too. For example the delta variant and/or vaccination might affect the level of virus a person excretes into the sewage system.

Yes, although I'm mostly interested in this sort of surveillance being able to detect peaks, rather than for comparing sizes of different waves peaks.

 

[The39thStep]

As they were here a few weeks back ... Would expect Portugal to follow similar trajectory to UK if your overall rules are similar to ours (though we also had schools to do incubation, whereas Portugal now has school holidays)

Rules here are law rather than advice or reccomendations , even so similar pattern ie lare number of cases and some pressure on hospitals whislt they bump out the vaccines.

 

[2hats]

So I can claim that Scotlands number of positive cases has peaked, but that doesnt mean the underlying reality is of a simple peak already having happened.

Some locations trending up to 300 million gene copies per person per day in the last week. Transient disparity Dec/Jan might suggest this is down to test availability/uptake, though innate viral property can not necessarily be ruled out (assuming sampling methodology is consistent). e2a: Or perhaps transient populations.

 

[glitch hiker]

This is the context of the Whitty comment about scary numbers. Mostly the usual attempts to explain exponential growth.

Maybe this is simplistic, but couldn't he have said this on the 12th?

 

[Cat Fan]

View attachment 279229 View attachment 279228
Some locations trending up to 300 million gene copies per person per day in the last week. Transient disparity Dec/Jan might suggest this is down to test availability/uptake, though innate viral property can not necessarily be ruled out (assuming sampling methodology is consistent).

Certainly doesn't look like cases have peaked then?

 

[2hats]

Certainly doesn't look like cases have peaked then?

Cases have peaked. Infections maybe, maybe not.

 

[elbows]

View attachment 279229 View attachment 279228
Some locations trending up to 300 million gene copies per person per day in the last week. Transient disparity Dec/Jan might suggest this is down to test availability/uptake, though innate viral property can not necessarily be ruled out (assuming sampling methodology is consistent).

I'm melting in the heat, can you point me to the source of that graph? Thanks very much!

 

[2hats]

I'm melting in the heat, can you point me to the source of that graph? Thanks very much!

Sorry. Same source I mentioned upthread. Latest issue (number 60) from the Scottish Government - Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland.

 

[elbows]

Thanks. I note this stuff:

In Seafield, levels rose to almost 250 Mgc/p/d with a sample taken on 2nd July. However, three subsequent samples were tested and showed a decline in levels from that peak, with the two most recent samples giving an estimate of around 60 Mgc/p/d. This approximates the pattern in cases, albeit in a more exaggerated manner.

Some other sites, including Nigg (covering Aberdeen) and Dalmuir (covering parts of Glasgow), show a similar pattern of a large increase in one sample followed by a reduced second sample. Taken together, however, this still represents a week to week increase in average WW Covid-19 levels. This sort of rapid (intra-week) change in levels is difficult to capture in aggregated statistics for weekly or fortnightly intervals. It is too early to tell if these reductions in WW Covid-19 levels will be maintained.

So I'd say there are tentative signs of peak in that data too, but need to wait longer to see if that picture solidifies.

 

[glitch hiker]

Isabel Bullshit tweeted thus




My feeling is that it ought be reported

 

[FridgeMagnet]

NB: I have no idea about all this html bollocks here.

Just post the link to the tweet. There's a system which automatically generates the embed code (using the OEmbed API, if you're interested).

 

[bimble]

i think the people who would be impressed by her tweet have already deleted it tbh. If the comments on DM are any indication of anything at all, deleting the App has the cool thing to do for a while now.
It's all voluntary really, all of it, and always has been. I don't think anything much is changing tomorrow for the same reason.

 

[Cat Fan]

Cases have peaked. Infections maybe, maybe not.

Could be too early to say on both, no? I take your point though.

 

[BillRiver]

i think the people who would be impressed by her tweet have already deleted it tbh. If the comments on DM are any indication of anything at all, deleting the App has the cool thing to do for a while now.
It's all voluntary really, all of it, and always has been. I don't think anything much is changing tomorrow for the same reason.

I agree with you in terms of people wearing masks, using the app, etc.

I think those that have been will continue to do so, mostly, and those that haven't been will continue not to.

What scares me (apart from the R number already!) is the numbers of people having to return to work in person, having to use public transport to do so, and above all - the people going to pubs, bars, and nightclubs from tomorrow onwards.

I'm seeing stuff on social media from the latter group that's really worrying me.

 

[elbows]

Could be too early to say on both, no? I take your point though.

Cases is used to describe people who have tested positive, so for Scotland it is safe to make that particular claim.

Next Wednesdays release of hospital admissions data for Scotland is probably the next opportunity to talk about this.

 

[bimble]

I agree with you in terms of people wearing masks, using the app, etc.

I think those that have been will continue to do so, mostly, and those that haven't been will continue not to.

What scares me (apart from the R number already!) is the numbers of people having to return to work in person, having to use public transport to do so, and above all - the people going to pubs, bars, and nightclubs from tomorrow onwards.

I'm seeing stuff on social media from the latter group that's really worrying me.

Yeah you're right. It is not going to continue the same because the choices are widening & people are being forced back to work.

 

[elbows]

But also the virus has less fresh victims to find, less unvaccinated people, and school holidays impact R.

A mess of different factors pulling in different directions.

 

[elbows]

Also for example the rather large number of infectious people at the moment vs the rather large number of people who are self-isolating.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I disable the app scanning regularly. It doesn't account for the situation - in fact, since it judges partially based on signal attenuation, it's more likely to ping outdoors than indoors - and I only ever stay in once place for any length of time either (a) at home alone or (b) outside in super-ventilated areas, where my sitting at a table behind someone who then goes on to get covid means that my exposure risk is effectively zero, regardless of what the distance and time algorithm says. I turn it back on for public transport and other situations which are indoors.

eta: what I don't do is delete it. There's no point. If it pings you and you delete it then it will ping you again if you re-install it. It's not legally mandatory for you to obey it if it pings. And if you don't have the app you can't sign into anywhere that needs a QR code sign-in, not that anyone will be doing that from tomorrow I guess.

 

[IC3D]

The venue will ask for a phone number or except another member of your group logging in, that's if they even ask. I've never been refused entry for not having it.

 

[FridgeMagnet]

The venue will ask for a phone number or except another member of your group logging in, that's if they even ask. I've never been refused entry for not having it.

It's just a little quicker to scan, and you don't get pinged from scanning anyway.

 

[Cat Fan]

Cases is used to describe people who have tested positive, so for Scotland it is safe to make that particular claim.

Next Wednesdays release of hospital admissions data for Scotland is probably the next opportunity to talk about this.

I'd be interested to see if it's the true peak or just a false dawn, given what the infection numbers are supposedly saying.

TL;Dr agree with what you said #40472