Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Supine]

No, it doesn't. It really, really doesn't.

You need to form a hypothesis first not just pick out random correlations with no logic behind them.

In this instance as you point out there are many potential variables that can confound a comparison between Tory and Labour voters. Age being one of them. It's not possible to draw the conclusion that "Labour voters are less likely to be vaccinated" without at least attempting to control for those factors.

If you still don't believe me I suggest you do some reading

Source:

Correlation does not imply causation - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

I don’t think you are applying the right type of analysis to this. The heat map shows older people are fully vaccinated. There is lots of survey data that shows older people vote conservative. No need for any kind of cause / effect required.

 

[Cat Fan]

I don’t think you are applying the right type of analysis to this. The heat map shows older people are fully vaccinated. There is lots of survey data that shows older people vote conservative. No need for any kind of cause / effect required.

Ok, but then you should say old people are more vaccinated not Tory voters are more vaccinated. Voting intention has nothing to do with it

 

[Supine]

Ok, but then you should say old people are more vaccinated not Tory voters are more vaccinated. Voting intention has nothing to do with it

Older people are fully vaccinated and they are statistically more likely to have voted conservative in elections.

Now they are safe lets have the virus rip through the 20-40 year olds who don’t have full protection and have a higher probability of voting Labour.

How is that?

 

[Cat Fan]

Scare tactics. Be afraid

What? Do you think Sajid Javid is faking getting Covid to scare people?

That's a bold career move.

 

[Cat Fan]

Older people are fully vaccinated and they are statistically more likely to have voted conservative in elections.

Now they are safe lets have the virus rip through the 20-40 year olds who don’t have full protection and have a higher probability of voting Labour.

How is that?

Perfect cheers!

 

[Storm Fox]

The way Johnson was looking earlier this week, it wouldn't surprise me if he had a second bout.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

 

[MickiQ]

I am pretty sure Darth Javid like all Sith Lords can channel the Dark Side to heal himself
Mrs Q and I have had our first day trip out today since before the pandemic began, When we got back our new next door neighbours at No 5 were having a family party with at least a dozen adults and six or seven children.
There are or were (judging by the directions the different sounds were coming from) at least 2 other parties going on within earshot range of the Q residence. Clearly plenty of people are not waiting for Freedom Day and letting the good weather go to waste.

 

[hash tag]

What? Do you think Sajid Javid is faking getting Covid to scare people?

That's a bold career move.

It's possible. I wouldn't trust them nor put it past them

The way Johnson was looking earlier this week, it wouldn't surprise me if he had a second bout.

Has Johnson got another dose



Of covid. They have been in contact

 

[little_legs]

 

[Smangus]

Cunt probably turned his app off...

 

[Yossarian]

So after three weeks in the job, Javid has COVID, half the country has COVID, all restrictions are being lifted, and the prime minister is in quarantine?

It's almost impressive, I don't think even Chris Grayling could have fucked up on the same scale.

 

[weepiper]

The Health Secretary and the Prime Minister both have to self isolate for the first week after 'Freedom Day' and therefore won't be available to talk to the press or be questioned in Parliament?

 

[two sheds]

The Health Secretary and the Prime Minister both have to self isolate for the first week after 'Freedom Day' and therefore won't be available to talk to the press or be questioned in Parliament?

but also

 

[l'Otters]

For people who want to upgrade their masks for whatever reason, there's a few to pick from at the mo;

NPR Cookie Consent and Choices

www.npr.org

I've been wearing three layer well fitted cloth masks in most contexts, and double mask with an N95 with a 2 layer cotton one over the top when things feel a bit more on top virus wise (public transport, eg).

 

[elbows]

 

[cupid_stunt]

Johnson & Sunak have both been contacted by test & trace.

However, they will not be isolating.

A Number 10 spokesperson said: "The prime minister and chancellor have been contacted by NHS Test and Trace as contacts of someone who has tested positive for COVID.

"They will be participating in the daily contact testing pilot to allow them to continue to work from Downing Street.

"They will be conducting only essential government business during this period."

'Important everybody sticks to same rules': PM makes U-turn on isolation and urges caution on eve of unlocking

Downing Street had said Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak will be taking in a pilot scheme whereby they will be tested daily and so do not have to quarantine - but that plan has now been scrapped.

news.sky.com

 

[Buddy Bradley]

How does that remotely make any sense? If you tested positive, you HAVE Covid. What's the point of seeing whether letting you spread it to other people is a good idea or not?

 

[cupid_stunt]

How does that remotely make any sense? If you tested positive, you HAVE Covid. What's the point of seeing whether letting you spread it to other people is a good idea or not?

They haven't tested positive, they are just close contacts of Javid, who has.

It's early, you probably need another coffee.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

They haven't tested positive, they are just close contacts of Javid, who has.

It's early, you probably need another coffee.

Ah, I misread Sunak as Javid for some reason. You're right, it's too early.

 

[bimble]

What's the current state of evidence on masks, by the way? Is there strong evidence of significant benefit or is it more marginal? I realise that I wouldn't have an answer to this quesroom if challenged on it.

I just read this, its another 'scientists beg people to keep wearing masks' piece.

must admit that this, to me, looks pretty crappy:

"This point was backed by Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia. “Most studies are observational and prone to all sorts of biases, but taken together there is a consistent finding towards face coverings having benefit both in protecting others if the wearer is infected and also to protect the wearer from others,” he told the Observer. “Estimates vary but they probably reduce transmission somewhere between 10 and 25%."

10-25% reduction thats it? So if i'm sat next to a covid person and we both have masks on i only have perhaps a 90% change of catching it instead of 100? that is pretty marginal.

 

[Cat Fan]

I just read this, its another 'scientists beg people to keep wearing masks' piece.

must admit that this, to me, looks pretty crappy:

"This point was backed by Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia. “Most studies are observational and prone to all sorts of biases, but taken together there is a consistent finding towards face coverings having benefit both in protecting others if the wearer is infected and also to protect the wearer from others,” he told the Observer. “Estimates vary but they probably reduce transmission somewhere between 10 and 25%."

10-25% reduction thats it? So if i'm sat next to a covid person and we both have masks on i only have perhaps a 90% change of catching it instead of 100? that is pretty marginal.

When they say transmission they mean R number, so e.g. if it's 20%, reduce from R= 1.2 to R=1.0. Or from R=5 to R=4.

It's fairly significant but not a complete game changer on its own. Other measures needed too.

 

[bimble]

its a lot less than i thought tbh. Maybe masks have taken on a signicance they don’t really warrant just because they’re something very visible that we can do.

 

[Cat Fan]

its a lot less than i thought tbh. Maybe masks have taken on a signicance they don’t really warrant just because they’re something very visible that we can do.

Yeah, I think it's pretty low impact compared to say a full lockdown. But the "cost" is far lower, so for most scientists it's a no brainer.

 

[Supine]

Don’t worry, the numbers are not comparable. Wearing a mask is significantly more protective than the overall impact on R at the population level.

 

[Cat Fan]

There are also masks and masks, cloth ones worn loosely or not properly covering both the mouth and nose are fairly ineffective.

The N95 ones are much better. But something is still better than nothing.

 

[gentlegreen]

I find that photo terrifying.
That sort of density definitely demands a proper mask.

Those of you who normally travel by tube, how many times a year do you get a 3 day in bed type virus ?

For me, working in a university - but able to cycle there and back - most years it was just once - though I often felt I was sickening for something.
Those of us in IT were particularly vulnerable because of the area we covered.

Given I've been masked since last April, I don't yet know if I ever caught viruses in the supermarket ...

 

[Cat Fan]

Sweden has been mask free the whole pandemic (outside of some healthcare and care home settings, and rush hour on public transport) and their outcome hasn't been hugely different to other European countries, one can argue. (Better than some, worse than others.)

They are definitely the outlier though.

Sweden says no need for face masks as COVID-19 deaths top 7,000

Sweden has not needed face masks yet, a top health official said on Thursday, as deaths from the pandemic climbed above 7,000 and a day after the World Health Organization (WHO) expanded recommendations for when masks should be used.

www.reuters.com

 

[purenarcotic]

- this is a very useful thread regarding masks (and how to improve the fit given we now know it’s airborne). I have always struggled with mask fit and looping the straps does nothing for me. I now use N95 but there is a gap under my chin. I expect masks are made to fit men’s faces…

 

[Cat Fan]

I find that photo terrifying.
That sort of density definitely demands a proper mask.

Those of you who normally travel by tube, how many times a year do you get a 3 day in bed type virus ?

For me, working in a university - but able to cycle there and back - most years it was just once - though I often felt I was sickening for something.
Those of us in IT were particularly vulnerable because of the area we covered.

Given I've been masked since last April, I don't yet know if I ever caught viruses in the supermarket ...

Very rarely 3 day in bed, but I used to always catch colds from commuting on densely packed trains and since lockdown I've not had more than a single 24 hour cold.