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Moderate confidence has apparently changed to high confidence.

The government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) has upgraded its confidence that the new variant spreads more easily, the group's chair has said.

Prof Peter Horby told a Science Media Centre briefing: "We now have high confidence that this variant does have a transmission advantage over other virus variants that are currently in the UK."

Minutes from a meeting on Friday said the group, which advises the UK government, had "moderate confidence" in this.

Another Nervtag member, Prof Neil Ferguson, from Imperial College London, told the briefing there was strong evidence the new variant is 50% more transmissible than the previous virus.

He also said there was a "hint" the new variant infects children more.

"There are other epidemiologically interesting trends with the virus, there is a hint that it has a higher propensity to infect children... but we haven't established any sort of causality on that, but we can see that in the data," he said.

From BBC updates page at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55392619
 
All...? :hmm: You lack imagination, Senor.
i daresay there'll be some blather about how this can't happen to him, that he's not without resources and he'll pay anything to put off the dreadful fate that approaches, that he's the father of a dozen children, give or take, and it would be inhuman deprive his offspring of their pa, that he's really very sorry and so on. but all i want to hear is that final shriek of despair as he recognises the futility of any further attempt to escape his inexorable fate
 
i daresay there'll be some blather about how this can't happen to him, that he's not without resources and he'll pay anything to put off the dreadful fate that approaches, that he's the father of a dozen children, give or take, and it would be inhuman deprive his offspring of their pa, that he's really very sorry and so on. but all i want to hear is that final shriek of despair as he recognises the futility of any further attempt to escape his inexorable fate
I was thinking along classic self-criticism lines...
 
This higher propensity to infect children...how easily can they infer that when children are the only people allowed to have contact anyway..? Genuine question.

They're not though, loads of adults are mixing in all sorts of ways as shown in the age demographics of infections. Anyway, the data would be worked out with the variables like that in mind. It's one of the things they're not so sure about afaik, should know more in days ahead.
 
So, what do we reckon? Tier 4 for everyone incoming?

If not now, I think very soon, yes. This is very big news though, a overnight (pretty much) realization that the R has jumped up to 0.9, with rates in infection out of control in a number of areas in the country. Also no clarity on the severity and fatality of this new strain yet, but still the infection rate jump is enough to potentially cause more deaths on its own.
 
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