Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[SpookyFrank]

3 households to 2 would surely make some difference I’d hope. I’d have preferred if they’d started with 2 households and worked their way up to 3 if the rate of infection/hospital admissions were not continuing to increase

I honestly think in most cases changing it to zero other households would be less upsetting than changing it to one other household. Like my dad and his wife have five kids between them, plus partners and grandkids. The grandkids all have separated parents who also see them and who have their own bubbles/households/workplaces with however many other people. Currently they're planning to have my sister and niece plus my stepsister for christmas. Changing the rules so only one of those could visit would create more strain on a family that's already been through the wringer of late, and which is even on a good day a tenuous alliance between my dad's clan and his wife's. Then you've got my mum and her fella, and a slightly different version of the same ugly mess there.

Me and Mrs Frank are staying home. It's simple and fair and it doesn't involve me driving so I can have as much port as I like.

 

[clicker]

I wish the message, if there had to even be one, was that no one needs be alone (unless they don't mind.) No more.

No faffing about with 2 or 3 bubbling households. No travelling across the country, because Boris has said Aunty Ethel is allowed x number of visitors.

If you travel it's to join a single person household. And likewise a single person household can travel to you. Anything else hold fire a month.
Yes, bound to be valid exceptions.

 

[elbows]

Looking at today's figures, they have a seriously big problem.

New cases are up 28.7% in the last 7-days, patients admitted to hospital up 14.7%, total patients in hospitals is a whopping 17,329 - that's well up from the 12,286 on the 31st Oct., when Johnson announced the second 'lockdown'.

Speaking of figures, one of the reasons I used the hospital stats off the NHS site rather than the dashboard ones was because the number of patients in hospital in England and English regions tended to be lower on the dashboard for reasons I didnt look into. Other reasons inclde the NHS version including additional data, and also the dashboard numbers tending to be one day behind the NHS ones.

Anyway there is now one less reason for me not to use the dashboard ones, because as of 11th December they have finally switched to using exactly tthe same numbers as the NHS site for Covid-19 patients in hospital beds. They are still a day behind though. Here is a graph showing the numbers before and after the switch.

 

[thismoment]

I wish the message, if there had to even be one, was that no one needs be alone (unless they don't mind.) No more.

No faffing about with 2 or 3 bubbling households. No travelling across the country, because Boris has said Aunty Ethel is allowed x number of visitors.

If you travel it's to join a single person household. And likewise a single person household can travel to you. Anything else hold fire a month.
Yes, bound to be valid exceptions.

yes, I agree with this.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I wish the message, if there had to even be one, was that no one needs be alone (unless they don't mind.) No more.

No faffing about with 2 or 3 bubbling households. No travelling across the country, because Boris has said Aunty Ethel is allowed x number of visitors.

If you travel it's to join a single person household. And likewise a single person household can travel to you. Anything else hold fire a month.
Yes, bound to be valid exceptions.

I 've now changed my mind. This is the only sane, and fair, way of doing it.

 

[Sue]

So what do we reckon? Are they going to stick with the current relaxation over Christmas, tighten it up a bit or or u-turn (no doubt at the last minute when massively forced into it)?

 

[thismoment]

I’ll say that they’ll stick to the current relaxation and tell us all to be sensible

 

[LDC]

So what do we reckon? Are they going to stick with the current relaxation over Christmas, tighten it up a bit or or u-turn (no doubt at the last minute when massively forced into it)?

I think they'll stick to it unfortunately, and just advice people to use 'common sense' and to 'be careful' as some kind of opt out. I think it'll be very hard to reverse the guidelines now tbh.

 

[Sue]

I think they'll stick to it unfortunately, and just advice people to use 'common sense' and to 'be careful' as some kind of opt out. I think it'll be very hard to reverse the guidelines now tbh.

I agree. Unfortunately.

 

[elbows]

So what do we reckon? Are they going to stick with the current relaxation over Christmas, tighten it up a bit or or u-turn (no doubt at the last minute when massively forced into it)?

I want at least 3 more days hospital data before I guess. Seeing what a few more days worth of press coverage and political pressure looks like might also help my guesswork. Although if I push this too far I might miss the window of opportunity to guess.

 

[killer b]

Screeching u-turn, Johnson to make a speech peppered throughout with his trademark 'alas!' from Downing Street tomorrow or Thursday

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I'm trying to work out what the maximum possible cock-up situation would be, but when I do, it'll be that.

 

[maomao]

Screeching u-turn, Johnson to make a speech peppered throughout with his trademark 'alas!' from Downing Street tomorrow or Thursday

Johnson can't do two things at once and he's busy getting Brexit done. Meanwhile, Gove's in charge and this is probably the nearest he'll get to a chance to commit mass murder so he'll make sure as many die as possible.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Of course the flipside of 'nobody needs to be alone' should be that if you have a safe, warm home and food in the fridge and someone to not be alone with already you can give someone else in a less happy situation a present by staying home and leaving as much leeway as possible for those who need to travel/mix to do so. If you squint at it from the right angle it's actually quite a lovely idea.

 

[Numbers]

Screeching u-turn, Johnson to make a speech peppered throughout with his trademark 'alas!' from Downing Street tomorrow or Thursday

We think the same here.

If it is to change we’d prefer to know early. We don’t have massive plans but we do have plans, and both us here and the family we plan on seeing have started separate isolation protocol.

 

[killer b]

Johnson can't do two things at once and he's busy getting Brexit done. Meanwhile, Gove's in charge and this is probably the nearest he'll get to a chance to commit mass murder so he'll make sure as many die as possible.

Gove (if that Times article is to be believed) is one of the more lockdown favouring members of cabinet, so if he's running it then perhaps it might look a bit better...

 

[elbows]

Screeching u-turn, Johnson to make a speech peppered throughout with his trademark 'alas!' from Downing Street tomorrow or Thursday

Last time they did a big lockdown u-turn I was waiting for the word alas and it nearly didnt come, think it only came out in response to a press question in the end.

The scene is certainly well setup should they decide to go for the u-turn option. Theres various new problems and restrictions in European countries to point to, they already introduced the new strain angle, and much of the press sentiment is primed. And there is plenty of compelling data showing doom.

 

[chilango]

I think they'll announce that they're sticking to it, urge caution and warn of consequences down the line...

...then early next week do a panicked U-turn once it's well and truly too late.

 

[chilango]

Gove (if that Times article is to be believed) is one of the more lockdown favouring members of cabinet, so if he's running it then perhaps it might look a bit better...

I'm running with a working assumption that Gove will take over as PM early next year once Johnson has "got Brexit done"/succumbed to long Covid/gone into rehab some sort.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The 4 nations are 'meeting' again tomorrow, which is also when any changes to the tier system are due to be announced, so I guess any changes will be rolled into that.

 

[killer b]

I'm running with a working assumption that Gove will take over as PM early next year once Johnson has "got Brexit done"/succumbed to long Covid/gone into rehab some sort.

I've been saying 'gove's next' since Cameron, and I've been wrong each time. Maybe this will be his moment to shine - certainly it felt like a subtext of that times piece was to cast Gove (and handjob) as the sensibles, and perhaps to launder Cummings somewhat.

 

[planetgeli]

I want at least 3 more days hospital data before I guess. Seeing what a few more days worth of press coverage and political pressure looks like might also help my guesswork.

The 4 nations are 'meeting' again tomorrow, which is also when any changes to the tier system are due to be announced, so I guess any changes will be rolled into that.

N.Ireland said the Christmas announcement will be on Thursday.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm running with a working assumption that Gove will take over as PM early next year once Johnson has "got Brexit done"/succumbed to long Covid/gone into rehab some sort.

Applied to be steward of the grytviken hundreds

 

[William of Walworth]

N.Ireland said the Christmas announcement will be on Thursday.

Wales also due to make some sort of announcement on Thursday (17th) -- as I'm sure you know

No doubt that will become The Xmas Announcement, even though it was just deemed a 'review' of current restrictions, before.

 

[Artaxerxes]

I think they'll announce that they're sticking to it, urge caution and warn of consequences down the line...

...then early next week do a panicked U-turn once it's well and truly too late.

And then blame the public for flouting rules in the new year

 

[mr steev]

Our council are now advising people not to mix at christmas - they did similar before the tier system when we had a local lockdown (which was pushed as a way to stop us being put into tier 3 - which happened anyway). The advice is if you really must mix with another household then to isolate for 10 days before (which is great if you have that option!!)

 

[elbows]

Grim in Northern Ireland:

Covid-19: Ambulance queues 'at all NI emergency departments'

There were long queues at Antrim Hospital but the situation has now improved.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Chairman Meow]

I was talking to my mum in NI last night, the situation is very grim indeed. She says hardly anyone is following the rules, the shops are packed and lots of people are saying they will refuse the vaccine. Meanwhile my relative who works in Altnagelvin hospital is on her knees. And Xmas is going to make everything so much worse, as even if they tighten the rules, mum says most people she knows won't comply. Thankfully my mum is a sensible sort and is staying away from everyone. Even my idiot stepbrother is covid denier, even though his bloody wife had it!

 

[William of Walworth]

People were speculating earlier up about whether there'll be pre-Xmas announcements of rule-toughening.
(ETA : I mean properly strict rule-toughening, nit just urging people to behave )

Some were saying there won't, the Government are too stupid/incompetent.

Both of which the Tories are, obviously.
But the figures are becoming so horrendous that Govt. will IMO be forced into imposing stricter rules for Xmas and beyond -- in all the nations, too.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Grim in Northern Ireland:

Covid-19: Ambulance queues 'at all NI emergency departments'

There were long queues at Antrim Hospital but the situation has now improved.

www.bbc.co.uk

That makes depressing reading.

I bet the Republic, having done well bringing the second wave under control, are pissed of with how the North has handled it.