Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[cupid_stunt]

I was talking to my mum in NI last night, the situation is very grim indeed. She says hardly anyone is following the rules, the shops are packed and lots of people are saying they will refuse the vaccine.

I hope what's happening at the hospitals will get people to take it more seriously, I mean, FFS -

Hospital capacity across the region stood at 104% on Tuesday.

At one point outside Antrim area hospital, 17 ambulances containing patients were lined up outside the emergency department. Doctors were treating patients in the car park.

Wendy Magowan, director of operations at the Northern Trust, said one patient had waited 10 hours in an ambulance overnight.

Northern Ireland: patients treated in car parks as hospitals overflow

Ambulances formed queues outside several hospitals as the region’s circuit-breaker lockdown fails to stop rise in Covid-19 cases

www.theguardian.com

 

[2hats]

Smart money appears to be on N501Y with the H69/V70 double deletion.

Now dubbed VUI - 202012/01 (Variant Under Investigation) by PHE.

 

[platinumsage]

137,897 vaccinated so far. It's likely we will only get weekly figures as they are using the existing weekly flu vaccination stats system.

 

[kabbes]

I wonder if that means fully vaccinated with two doses or just started with one dose

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

I wonder if that means fully vaccinated with two doses or just started with one dose

It'll be one dose. IIRC it's a 3 or 4 week gap to the second dose. Then a week for that to be fully effective.

I'm not sure if there's any interim protection from the first dose. Possibly they're deliberately not suggesting that in case people get over confident.

 

[Chairman Meow]

Am I missing something? Its going to take a bloody long time to vaccinate everyone who needs it at that rate, especially if two doses are required.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Am I missing something? Its going to take a bloody long time to vaccinate everyone who needs it at that rate, especially if two doses are required.

Well I think so yes - it's week one, there's not really any reason to expect that the rate will be set in the first week and that's it. You'd expect that rate to increase as things get geared up, particularly assuming the Oxford vaccine is approved.

 

[zora]

Yes, you might have missed the discussions where it's been spelt out that it's going to take a while. Problems with the cold chain etc of this first available vaccine, as well as availability of doses are well documented.
It was always going to take some time to sort out the logistics and get enough vaccines, BUT what I would say is that because of that it would be good if another big effort was made to suppress the virus in other ways (the old test, trace, isolate, using new test technologies in joined up ways etc etc).

 

[Spandex]

Am I missing something? Its going to take a bloody long time to vaccinate everyone who needs it at that rate, especially if two doses are required.

The key bit in that tweet is: That number will increase as we have operationalised hundreds of PCN (primary care networks)

Because, yes, while 137,897 sounds a big number it'd take over 7 years to vaccinate everyone they plan to vaccinate at that rate...

 

[Chairman Meow]

Well I think so yes - it's week one, there's not really any reason to expect that the rate will be set in the first week and that's it. You'd expect that rate to increase as things get geared up, particularly assuming the Oxford vaccine is approved.

Fair enough!

 

[cupid_stunt]

Am I missing something? Its going to take a bloody long time to vaccinate everyone who needs it at that rate, especially if two doses are required.

They only have limited supplies of vaccine so far, and IIRC there's only 50 odd hospitals & about 100 GP operated vaccination centres so far, that will be scaled up as more doses become available, especially if the Oxford one is approved.

In Sussex only a Brighton hospital has the vaccine ATM, my SiS tells me Worthing will be in the next batch of hospitals, because they have a freezer that can handle it.

She actually retired last year, went back p/t to help in the lab earlier this year, is due to finish again this month, but has agreed to go on the 'staff bank' in case they need her next year, and has also volunteered for the training so she can help with vaccinations, have to say the family is well proud of her.

 

[Cloo]

I was pleased to see some numbers at least - I would expect it to pick up and apparently the 137k doesn't include some GP vaccinations that started on Monday

 

[planetgeli]

Cardiff vaccination centre closed. Nine staff test positive.

 

[prunus]

Am I missing something? Its going to take a bloody long time to vaccinate everyone who needs it at that rate, especially if two doses are required.

It is going to take some time. Even the target is only a little over 1/3 of the population by the end of 2021, and, well, this government’s record on hitting targets is as you know.

e2a: as per this report COVID-19: Less than half of UK population could be vaccinated in 2021, spending watchdog says

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

It is going to take some time. Even the target is only a little over 1/3 of the population by the end of 2021, and, well, this government’s record on hitting targets is as you know.

Is it? I haven't seen that anywhere. From what I can tell they've been a bit cagy about targets but Hancock was definitely talking about the majority being vaccinated by Easter at one point.

 

[clicker]

Do people still need to sit for 15 mins after the vaccine, to monitor adverse effects? They knew this would slow things down due to space.
If so, and they don't show any adverse effects, the 15 min waiting time may be waived for the second dose. That would speed up the process.

 

[Numbers]

On the BBC just now, the Four UK nations agree to continue Christmas rule relaxation.

 

[Espresso]

Easter Sunday is 4th of April, so that's more or less sixteen weeks away.
If they want to vaccinate everyone over 50 by then, lets say that's twenty five million people.
If twenty five million people need two jabs, that means fifty million vaccinations in sixteen weeks.
That's nearly half a million injections every day of the week between now and Easter.

Doesn't seem likely to me.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

Easter Sunday is 4th of April, so that's more or less sixteen weeks away.
If they want to vaccinate everyone over 50 by then, lets say that's twenty five million people.
If twenty five million people need two jabs, that means fifty million vaccinations in sixteen weeks.
That's nearly half a million injections every day of the week between now and Easter.

Doesn't seem likely to me.

Plus you'd need the first doses to have been completed four weeks before so even trickier.

Agreed, I don't expect anything anywhere near that fast. Even a competent government would struggle with that. I am curious about how they see the numbers panning out though even if you have to be sceptical about them meeting it.

 

[planetgeli]

"You can meet with three households"

"But we'd rather you didn't meet with three households"

Consistent in their inconsistency, you have to give them that.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

"You can meet with three households"

"But we'd rather you didn't meet with three households"

Consistent in their inconsistency, you have to give them that.

That Matt Lucas impression of Johnson is still bang on isn't it, however many months down the line it is now.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Is it? I haven't seen that anywhere. From what I can tell they've been a bit cagy about targets but Hancock was definitely talking about the majority being vaccinated by Easter at one point.

No fucking way we vaccinate everyone by easter

 

[Spandex]

Looking at the testing system might give a clue to what's possible for vaccinations. It took a while to get going, and there were some bumps along the way, but they've been doing somewhere around 300,000 tests a day for the last few months, with a theoretical 'capacity' of somewhere between 500k and 600k.

Will we hear a lot about vaccination capacity from the government while the actual figures lag behind?

 

[Ms Ordinary]

Last week my Dad (84) was offered appointments via his GP for both his Covid Vaccinations - 1 next week & then another 3 weeks later.
Although his first appointment has now been postponed until January as he carries an epipen & there were some issues with people with severe allergies being vaccinated & they want to see how that pans out. (His allergy is to wasp stings).

 

[prunus]

Is it? I haven't seen that anywhere. From what I can tell they've been a bit cagy about targets but Hancock was definitely talking about the majority being vaccinated by Easter at one point.

I am sure I read in the news this morning that they were aiming for 25m people vaccinated by the end of 2021, but danged if I can find it now, so either I imagined it or it’s been removed from the [Guardian|BBC] website, possibly because it’s not true . Will edit original post.


Edit: Ah no here we go, national audit office report:

[The NAO] said NHS England and NHS Improvement "is planning on the assumption it could vaccinate up to 25 million people with two doses throughout 2021".

COVID-19: Less than half of UK population could be vaccinated in 2021, spending watchdog says

 

[Buddy Bradley]

If that's true, it seems counterintuitive to be vaccinating the elderly and at-risk first - surely you'd want to vaccinate the demographics that are the most likely to spread the virus around the most? No idea what that might mean in practice - kids, service industry workers, something like that, maybe. The number of people that the average 85-year-old interacts with is going to be far less than your average bus driver though.

 

[20Bees]

Just heard the last few minutes of PMQ on LBC Radio. Wales going for two families, five days. Johnson apparently said jolly stuff about Mariah Carey...

 

[weepiper]

On the BBC just now, the Four UK nations agree to continue Christmas rule relaxation.

Nicola Sturgeon pretty unequivocal that it's a bad idea during her lunchtime press briefing. Scottish Government advice is 'don't do it, but if you must do it, do it only on one day, two households better than three, and don't travel'.



I'm not sure this is agreeing in the way Boris Johnson is suggesting

 

[SpookyFrank]

Am I missing something? Its going to take a bloody long time to vaccinate everyone who needs it at that rate, especially if two doses are required.

Vaccinating everyone isn't even a blue-sky objective at this point.

 

[2hats]

If that's true, it seems counterintuitive to be vaccinating the elderly and at-risk first - surely you'd want to vaccinate the demographics that are the most likely to spread the virus around the most? No idea what that might mean in practice - kids, service industry workers, something like that, maybe. The number of people that the average 85-year-old interacts with is going to be far less than your average bus driver though.

Sterilising immunity is not a taken, indeed is not being presumed, hasn't even been established in trials, might not even occur to any effective degree (in early vaccines). This has been discussed before.