Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[chilango]

Were you only allowed out on your own, or could you go for a walk with someone from your household?

Household iirc.

 

[cupid_stunt]

We knew things were getting very serious in Wales, now England is offering to help Welsh hospitals, by taking non-covid patients.

The UK Government has offered to take non-Covid patients from Welsh hospitals to ease the pressure as cases of coronavirus threaten to overwhelm the health service.

In a letter to the First Minister Mark Drakeford, the UK Health Secretary Matt Hancock and the Welsh Secretary Simon Hart said that they were "concerned" by the rising rates in Wales, and offered support "so we can get on top of this disease together".

"We stand ready to support Welsh hospitals through mutual aid of patients across the border where this is needed due to undue strain on healthcare provision."

England offers to take non-Covid patients to ease pressure in Welsh hospitals | ITV News

It comes as some health boards in Wales announced that non-urgent appointments would be rescheduled due to rising demand on the service. | ITV News Wales

www.itv.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

BBC TV News - 'Number 10 says it still intends to allow household mixing over Christmas, but guidance is being kept under constant review.'

Getting ready for a U-turn?

 

[killer b]

Number of covid-19 patients in hospital in England using data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

View attachment 243609

Looking at this graph, I cant see how they're going to be able to push on with Christmas as it's currently planned. U-turn this week.

 

[planetgeli]

Things are (and have been for a while now) much worse in Wales. And there is no U-turn planned here. Nobody wants to be the one that cancels Christmas. I think politicians care more about politics than they do about health. It's Christmas tradition and festivities vs graphs few are reading and an unquantifiable number of deaths that haven't happened yet.

With every day that passes I'd argue it's less likely there will be a U-turn.

I'd love to be proved wrong. In any sane world I'd be proved wrong.

 

[andysays]

Yeah, I would be utterly amazed if the planned easing of restrictions over Xmas is abandoned or even scaled back.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Things are (and have been for a while now) much worse in Wales. And there is no U-turn planned here. Nobody wants to be the one that cancels Christmas. I think politicians care more about politics than they do about health. It's Christmas tradition and festivities vs graphs few are reading and an unquantifiable number of deaths that haven't happened yet.

With every day that passes I'd argue it's less likely there will be a U-turn.

I'd love to be proved wrong. In any sane world I'd be proved wrong.

And the govt’s “flexible friends” in the media, especially the BBC are playing along - notice they were focusing on the death figures in bulletins today - (“encouraging”) was the word the propagandist sap used - rather than the infections and hospitalisation - because the death figures have a 2 week plus lag on the infections and hospitalisation they are still showing the slight benefit of the November “semi lockdown” rather than the infections and hospitalisations which probably show what the infection state of play was 5-7 days ago.

 

[belboid]

I hope they do uturn, but they won’t. We’re meant to be going down to mrsb’s family in Tottenham but I really don’t think we should be doing. SIL currently has COVID, and two young kids to pass it on to (and a hubby). Mum has dementia and dad has menieres so an infection could all too easily be crippling if it doesn’t kill them.

I can’t really say much as mrsb thinks it’s just me not wanting to go to her folks. Which is partly true, but I’d still prefer them not to die.

 

[teuchter]

I can’t really say much as mrsb thinks it’s just me not wanting to go to her folks. Which is partly true, but I’d still prefer them not to die.

this scenario, I'm guessing, will be a common one...

 

[cupid_stunt]

I am not convinced they will change restrictions over Christmas, but I wouldn't rule it out, things seem to be moving at a pace.

Sky News has just reported that the cabinet office minister is to hold a call this afternoon with devolved nations over restrictions for Christmas.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Looking at this graph, I cant see how they're going to be able to push on with Christmas as it's currently planned. U-turn this week.

Anyone with an ounce of sanity can see a u-turn is required and we need a lockdown of some description over Christmas.

Sanity seems to be in short supply in government though, so I’m not going to hold out much hope.

 

[chilango]

There's a lot of noise casting doubt on the Christmas easing being broadcast right now.

I wouldn't rule out some sort U-turn at this point. Just depends if the public mood can be nudged towards it a bit.

Obviously the Government will want to avoid the blame for it being laid on their crap tiers and pointless mockdown, but also a widespread refusal to follow any tightened Christmas period restrictions will be disastrous.

So, they've got to try and shift and reframe and so on if they want to get away with tightening. I think we're seeing some tentative attempts at that this morning without - yet - any commitment.

 

[cupid_stunt]

One assumes it'll need all four nations to agree, which in turn would give cover to Johnson for cancelling Christmas.

The leaders of all four UK nations will discuss plans for Christmas this afternoon after Downing Street said a relaxation of coronavirus restrictions is being kept "under constant review".

Boris Johnson's spokesperson said it remains the government's "intention" to allow up to three households to mix for five days over the Christmas period, but would not give a cut off point for when people can be confident that the arrangements will stay in place.

Asked repeatedly, he said: "We have set out the Christmas guidance and we have been clear around the need for people to remain cautious and vigilant throughout the Christmas period...

"As we have done throughout the pandemic we keep all advice under constant review."

UK nations to 'reconvene' on Wednesday to discuss Covid Christmas rules | ITV News

Boris Johnson's spokesman said it remains the government's "intention" to allow up to three households to mix for five days over the Christmas period

www.itv.com

 

[elbows]

And the govt’s “flexible friends” in the media, especially the BBC are playing along - notice they were focusing on the death figures in bulletins today - (“encouraging”) was the word the propagandist sap used - rather than the infections and hospitalisation - because the death figures have a 2 week plus lag on the infections and hospitalisation they are still showing the slight benefit of the November “semi lockdown” rather than the infections and hospitalisations which probably show what the infection state of play was 5-7 days ago.

No the BBC story is just part of the normal timing of news - every Tuesday the ONS figures for England & Wales come out and a story is written about them.

And on this occasion at the end of the story they make it clear what is likely to happen next:

People dying from Covid in this period are likely to have caught the infection in the first half of November after cases peaked.

Since then cases continued to drop, before starting to climb again over the last week or so, particularly in the south east, which prompted the government to move London and some surrounding areas into tier three.

That suggests the next few weeks could see Covid deaths going down and then up again in the coming weeks.

High death rate 'may be starting to fall'

Total deaths in the UK have been 20% above normal in recent weeks, but that figure has now dropped.

www.bbc.co.uk

I actually think that its plausible the government doesnt want to formally change the Christmas rules, but came out with the stuff about a new strain yesterday in part to get the mood music in the media to change a bit. Because if they keep the Christmas rules in place but manage to encourage less of the population to take advantage of them, that serves the agenda a bit without an overt u-turn. Not that I exclude the possibility that they will realise this is still not enough, panic, and u-turn on Christmas. But certainly in terms of newspaper front pages today, I think they got what they were after with that. The BBC really didnt play along with that strain stuff much so far though, they downplayed it when they covered it yesterday. And there are other reasons for them to go on about the new strain, such as excusing their Southern tier fuckups and trying to counterbalance the loss of vigilance that stems from vaccine good news.

If the tabloids start calling it the Grinch strain then the Christmas game is probably up.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Resistance to any Xmas changes are already coming out of Wales, despite the fucking mess there, Mark Drakeford, 'the original 4 nation agreement was hard won, and I'll not lightly put it aside.'

 

[killer b]

Things are (and have been for a while now) much worse in Wales. And there is no U-turn planned here.

U turns are never planned, they just happen. They're a panicked response to changing or unexpected (or totally misjudged) circumstances.

It doesnt look to me like they have the wiggle room for another week of growth followed by 5 days of seeding it all out across the country before we hit those hard limits elbows talks about.

 

[wtfftw]

If I were wanting to not change my mind on schools or household bubbles etc I could see myself restricting travel. Like you can have your bubble but you can't travel to it.

 

[planetgeli]

U turns are never planned, they just happen. They're a panicked response to changing or unexpected (or totally misjudged) circumstances.

Really? They just happen in an instant, these policy decisions? Johnson will wake up one day and go 'bang'! ?

Boris Johnson 'planning part-U-turn' on kids' school meals after public outrage

Matt Hancock appeared to hint at more cash over the Christmas holidays - after even some of the 322 Tories who voted down Marcus Rashford's campaign hit out. But will it be enough?

www.mirror.co.uk

Etc.

Others might have taken my post to acknowledge Drakeford's intransigence as highlighted by cupid_stunt above. But you carry on with your pedantry. It's all good.

 

[planetgeli]

But yes, I hope Johnson does wake up one day and go bang.

 

[Artaxerxes]

One assumes it'll need all four nations to agree, which in turn would give cover to Johnson for cancelling Christmas.

UK nations to 'reconvene' on Wednesday to discuss Covid Christmas rules | ITV News

Boris Johnson's spokesman said it remains the government's "intention" to allow up to three households to mix for five days over the Christmas period

www.itv.com

I swear this one of the few times they’ve actually bothered to consult with the devolved nations

 

[killer b]

Really? They just happen in an instant, these policy decisions? Johnson will wake up one day and go 'bang'! ?

Boris Johnson 'planning part-U-turn' on kids' school meals after public outrage

Matt Hancock appeared to hint at more cash over the Christmas holidays - after even some of the 322 Tories who voted down Marcus Rashford's campaign hit out. But will it be enough?

www.mirror.co.uk

Etc.

Others might have taken my post to acknowledge Drakeford's intransigence as highlighted by cupid_stunt above. But you carry on with your pedantry. It's all good.

It isn't pedantry - just saying the lack of apparent planning for a u-turn isn't any indication a u-turn won't happen. Iirc on the morning - or certainly the afternoon before - the last national lockdown was announced the government were absolutely clear there wasn't going to be a lockdown. And then, there was.

 

[killer b]

You are right that sometimes there's some softening up beforehand though, which is what we're most probably seeing now

 

[Wilf]

Given the rises in cases now and then we have the Xmas relaxations which will make that surge worse I can't see it being as long as January before things are 'bad' again and we need some kind of national level restrictions.

I do think there's a fair amount social, business, and cultural pressure on the government for this Xmas relaxation, I don't think it's as simple as them being careless. Plenty of people I know were going to significantly break the restrictions anyway, so I can see the argument that providing some sort of guidelines for people has advantages.

Meanwhile: NTIA warns more than 5,000 New Year’s Eve illegal parties may take place

In terms of the behavioural nudges and guidelines, I think we are somewhere between the 2 quotes above. Setting aside my hatred of the neoliberal scum - that wasn't easy - government do have a role in terms of setting some kind of framework in the middle of a crisis. I agree with LDC that they have to do something in terms of Christmas, particularly as it is the single most risky period in terms of household mixing and the rest. The problem is the government don't have the kind of roots in communities that create anything beyond top down advice and rules. Governments don't generally, neoliberal ones even more so. That means any kind of relaxation will play out as individualism and consumerism. Basically, the January sales scrum + a desperate hedonism on New Year's Eve.

= more dead.

 

[andysays]

I hope they do uturn, but they won’t. We’re meant to be going down to mrsb’s family in Tottenham but I really don’t think we should be doing. SIL currently has COVID, and two young kids to pass it on to (and a hubby). Mum has dementia and dad has menieres so an infection could all too easily be crippling if it doesn’t kill them.

I can’t really say much as mrsb thinks it’s just me not wanting to go to her folks. Which is partly true, but I’d still prefer them not to die.

Under normal circumstances, I'd suggest meeting up if you were coming to Tottenham, but not this Xmas

 

[The39thStep]

In terms of the behavioural nudges and guidelines, I think we are somewhere between the 2 quotes above. Setting aside my hatred of the neoliberal scum - that wasn't easy - government do have a role in terms of setting some kind of framework in the middle of a crisis. I agree with LDC that they have to do something in terms of Christmas, particularly as it is the single most risky period in terms of household mixing and the rest. The problem is the government don't have the kind of roots in communities that create anything beyond top down advice and rules. Governments don't generally, neoliberal ones even more so. That means any kind of relaxation will play out as individualism and consumerism. Basically, the January sales scrum + a desperate hedonism on New Year's Eve.

= more dead.

It’s not just the government, Labour don’t have any alternative narrative or the means to communicate one even if they had . Having said that millions will be careful at Xmas and New Year .

 

[elbows]

Resistance to any Xmas changes are already coming out of Wales, despite the fucking mess there, Mark Drakeford, 'the original 4 nation agreement was hard won, and I'll not lightly put it aside.'

I dont think what he said is a genuine sign of resistance, he is just trying to make noises that appeal to some, but he is very far from ruling change out. eg:

"The choice is a grim one, isn't it," he said. "I have read in my own email account over the last couple of days heart-rending pleas from people not to reverse what we have agreed for Christmas.

"People who live entirely alone, who have made arrangements to be with people for the first time - they say to me that this is the only thing that they have been able to look forward to in recent weeks.

"And yet we know, if people do not use the modest amount of additional freedom available responsibly, then we will see an impact of that on our already hard-pressed health service.

"So I think the choice is an incredibly difficult one. At the moment we have a four-nation agreement. I will discuss that later today, we will look at the figures again together."

From BBC live updates page at 14:09 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55313964

 

[elbows]

It’s not just the government, Labour don’t have any alternative narrative or the means to communicate one even if they had . Having said that millions will be careful at Xmas and New Year .

Keir Starmer calls for ‘urgent review’ of Christmas coronavirus rules

Pressure is piling on the Government to rethink the Christmas rules

www.standard.co.uk

Labour leader Sir Keir is urging Mr Johnson to convene an emergency Cobra meeting in the next 24-hours to reconsider the current guidance.

Dear Prime Minister,
It has become increasingly clear over recent days that the tier system you introduced two weeks ago has failed to control transmission of Covid-19. Sadly, it does now appear that the Government has - once again - lost control of infections, putting our economy and our NHS at grave risk in the new year.

This will be a source of great anxiety for people across the country, who have made so many sacrifices to keep families, loved ones and communities safe. The fantastic work of scientists and others in developing a vaccine has been a tremendous achievement for our country and allowed us to all feel hopeful again. But we have been brought back down to earth with a thud as the grim possibility of an increasingly bleak winter comes into view.

I welcomed the fact that the Government had sought a four-nation approach on the arrangements over the Christmas period. I understand that people want to spend time with their families after this awful year, but the situation has clearly taken a turn for the worse since the decision about Christmas was taken. It serves no-one for politicians to ignore this fact.

It is my view that you should now convene COBRA in the next 24 hours to review whether the current relaxation is appropriate given the rising number of cases. If you conclude with Government scientists that we need to take tougher action to keep people safe over Christmas, then you will have my support.

Any further tightening of restrictions will obviously be deeply disappointing to many across the country. Many will have already started planning for Christmas and would have held on to the prospect of a happy day with family and loved ones to get us through these tough months. But the public do not want false reassurance, warm words or ducked challenges from their Prime Minister. They want leadership.

This is a critical moment for our country. The tiered system has not kept the virus under control and has left us with precious little headroom. Put simply, if you take the wrong decision now, the ramifications for our NHS and our economy in the new year could be severe.

Our country has already seen one of the worst excess death rates in Europe and the worst recession of any major economy. This was not inevitable, but a failure to take the tough decisions at the right time. The Government was too slow at the start of the pandemic and in September, when it was clear we needed a circuit break over half-term, you chose to ignore the scientific advice and delayed the inevitable until November.

I am urging you to not repeat that same mistake now. Your priority should be a safe Christmas, which allows a healthy and prosperous new year.

Yours sincerely

Keir Starmer

Leader of the Labour Party

 

[brogdale]

You are right that sometimes there's some softening up beforehand though, which is what we're most probably seeing now

Yep.
There has to be a chance that Johnson's 'plan' was to put it out there that he'd 'given us Xmas' with the reserve position that it could be 'scaled-back' withdrawn if/when the numbers went wrong (our fault). No-one can ever say we didn't want to give you all a happy, family Xmas just like they used to be....

 

[The39thStep]

Keir Starmer calls for ‘urgent review’ of Christmas coronavirus rules

Pressure is piling on the Government to rethink the Christmas rules

www.standard.co.uk

That’s just the same top down communications tbh . It’s focus is on what the government does not citizens.

 

[bimble]

I’ll be very surprised if they announce a u-turn on Christmas , even though u turns are their favourite manoeuvre.
As said before I think the impact would be fairly minimal due to people ignoring the government now, whilst he, Johnson, just wants so badly to be liked that he’d resist making this particular announcement with all the pathetic self interested short termist might at his disposal.