Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[killer b]

Apologies if this has been posted but the Sunday Times insight team wrote a long piece at the weekend, it’s got my blood boiling but worth a read if only to further demonstrate how utterly cavalier Johnson and the rest are, makes me think the Brexit brinkmanship on Sunday was to hide this story https://archive.vn/UWnAm

Cheers for this - that's quite a piece.

 

[teuchter]

Following an encouraging-looking month or so, a change in trajectory is now visible in the ZOE estimates

 

[chilango]

Of course there will be another lockdown of some sort. The only question is whether they can manage to put it off until after the New Year.

 

[Artaxerxes]

I can easily see there being a repeat of November's 'lockdown'. In fact I think it very likely. There really isn't that much difference from tier 3 anyway and millions are either living with that or will be very shortly anyway.

I have low expectations from the government and at every stage they've not met them so I figured if I started exceptionally low maybe this time they'll give me a pleasant surprise.

 

[LDC]

Given the rises in cases now and then we have the Xmas relaxations which will make that surge worse I can't see it being as long as January before things are 'bad' again and we need some kind of national level restrictions.

I do think there's a fair amount social, business, and cultural pressure on the government for this Xmas relaxation, I don't think it's as simple as them being careless. Plenty of people I know were going to significantly break the restrictions anyway, so I can see the argument that providing some sort of guidelines for people has advantages.

 

[Teaboy]

Given the rises in cases now and then we have the Xmas relaxations which will make that surge worse I can't see it being as long as January before things are 'bad' again and we need some kind of national level restrictions.

Interesting that you use the word "surge" there. I found out yesterday that there is a construction project going on in Cambridge which is falling under the nightingale hospital set up. They are literally calling the construction project "Project Surge".

 

[LDC]

Interesting that you use the word "surge" there. I found out yesterday that there is a construction project going on in Cambridge which is falling under the nightingale hospital set up. They are literally calling the construction project "Project Surge".

Yeah, I was chatting with someone last night, and we deliberated about the use of 'wave'. Concluded that waves needed a trough between them, and what we were likely to see was a second lot of infections that pushes the current growing wave higher than it would otherwise have been, so not easily viewable and distinguishable on a simple plotted graph of time and rates of infections/deaths/etc. So we settled on 'surge' to describe that. Rock n roll Monday night.

 

[magneze]

Given the rises in cases now and then we have the Xmas relaxations which will make that surge worse I can't see it being as long as January before things are 'bad' again and we need some kind of national level restrictions.

I do think there's a fair amount social, business, and cultural pressure on the government for this Xmas relaxation, I don't think it's as simple as them being careless. Plenty of people I know were going to significantly break the restrictions anyway, so I can see the argument that providing some sort of guidelines for people has advantages.

This doesn't make sense to me. Sure some people will break it anyway, but better to go with a guideline of 'don't do it' rather than 'it's ok'.

 

[LDC]

This doesn't make sense to me. Sure some people will break it anyway, but better to go with a guideline of 'don't do it' rather than 'it's ok'.

I'm not saying I agree with it, but it is a common response to lots of things like this, even on a smaller level. Plenty of people give guidelines for all sorts of dangerous things that people 'shouldn't do' like IV drug user needle exchanges, letting teenagers drink alcohol at home under supervision, etc.

I assume (maybe stupidly) that it has been discussed by the behavioral lot in SAGE as well, and they have some input into thinking it might be 'better' than an outright ban...?

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Two leading medical journals have said the UK government's plan to ease Covid rules over Christmas is a "rash decision" that will "cost many lives".

Place your bets on the u-turn timing

 

[prunus]

I assume (maybe stupidly) that it has been discussed by the behavioral lot in SAGE as well, and they have some input into thinking it might be 'better' than an outright ban...?

Reading the Sunday Times article linked above I’m not sure one can any more assume that any part of the government’s responses or actions is informed by any kind of science, behavioural or otherwise. I get the feeling none of it is joined up any more, ministers etc are just saying what they think with varying degrees of ignorance.

 

[magneze]

I'm not saying I agree with it, but it is a common response to lots of things like this, even on a smaller level. Plenty of people give guidelines for all sorts of dangerous things that people 'shouldn't do' like IV drug user needle exchanges, letting teenagers drink alcohol at home under supervision, etc.

I assume (maybe stupidly) that it has been discussed by the behavioral lot in SAGE as well, and they have some input into thinking it might be 'better' than an outright ban...?

Perhaps they've even thought that the current strategy of making it seem like it would happen and then banning it is more effective than banning it.

 

[Teaboy]

Two leading medical journals have said the UK government's plan to ease Covid rules over Christmas is a "rash decision" that will "cost many lives".

Place your bets on the u-turn timing

I can't see it personally. They've started to dig in on certain things, not taking the really easy and obvious decision to close the schools a few days earlier is the best example of this. That decision will needlessly cost a lot of lives for no discernible gain.

I can't see them shifting ground on the Christmas plans unless something really major happens in the next few days.

 

[maomao]

They will not shift on Christmas. And because it will involve kids from the covid ridden school system mixing with grandparents people will die. There was absolutely no reason for Williamson to force London boroughs back to school except not wanting to be seen to be responding to Kahn's demands.

 

[editor]

I'm expecting January to be a total shower of shit with a long full-on lockdown piling on the misery.

 

[Teaboy]

I'm expecting January to be a total shower of shit with a long full-on lockdown piling on the misery.

I was fairly relaxed about the Christmas situation at the end of November. I'm less so now given how fast things are moving. At a guess I'd say those of us in tier 3 are going to be in it for the long haul and there will be many more joining us.

 

[miss direct]

I'm expecting January to be a total shower of shit with a long full-on lockdown piling on the misery.

Can it really be any worse (I mean of course cases and deaths can and probably will go up, but in terms of restrictions)? I mean what can they shut that isn't already shut, or wasn't already shut last month?

 

[elbows]

Can it really be any worse (I mean of course cases and deaths can and probably will go up, but in terms of restrictions)? I mean what can they shut that isn't already shut, or wasn't already shut last month?

Schools etc, and a broader range of workplaces. And right now non-essential retail is open, which is just one of many differences right now compared to the november national restrictions.

 

[prunus]

Can it really be any worse (I mean of course cases and deaths can and probably will go up, but in terms of restrictions)? I mean what can they shut that isn't already shut, or wasn't already shut last month?

All the shops except food and medicine. Gyms, outdoor sports. No meeting of anyone anywhere. No going outside for anything except essential reasons. Schools and colleges. There’s plenty further to go than tier 3

 

[Orang Utan]

Can it really be any worse (I mean of course cases and deaths can and probably will go up, but in terms of restrictions)? I mean what can they shut that isn't already shut, or wasn't already shut last month?

The places that were shut in the full lockdown - non-essential shops, libraries, gyms etc

 

[elbows]

Reading the Sunday Times article linked above I’m not sure one can any more assume that any part of the government’s responses or actions is informed by any kind of science, behavioural or otherwise. I get the feeling none of it is joined up any more, ministers etc are just saying what they think with varying degrees of ignorance.

Theres one thing I can still be reasonably sure of because its been true all the way along so far - there are levels of hospitalisation that force them to act and do giant u-turns.

 

[miss direct]

I really can't see schools being closed. The government seem absolutely determined for that not to happen, despite the chaos it's caused all term.

 

[miss direct]

That's what I mean though - so basically the same as last month.

 

[elbows]

Number of covid-19 patients in hospital in England using data from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[miss direct]

All the shops except food and medicine. Gyms, outdoor sports. No meeting of anyone anywhere. No going outside for anything except essential reasons. Schools and colleges. There’s plenty further to go than tier 3

But were those even the rules in the spring? (Sorry, wasn't in the UK so didn't follow the rules closely, too busy trying to keep up with the very strict rules where I was)

 

[editor]

Can it really be any worse (I mean of course cases and deaths can and probably will go up, but in terms of restrictions)? I mean what can they shut that isn't already shut, or wasn't already shut last month?

Retail can close so you can't even buy a pointless jumper from TK Maxx to cheer yourself up.

 

[editor]

Meanwhile: NTIA warns more than 5,000 New Year’s Eve illegal parties may take place

 

[cupid_stunt]

But were those even the rules in the spring? (Sorry, wasn't in the UK so didn't follow the rules closely, too busy trying to keep up with the very strict rules where I was)

Basically, yes.

Although off licences, banks & post offices, garages (not sales showrooms) were allowed to stay open.

 

[chilango]

But were those even the rules in the spring? (Sorry, wasn't in the UK so didn't follow the rules closely, too busy trying to keep up with the very strict rules where I was)

In Spring schools, Unis, shops, gyms we're all shut.

You were only allowed out for an hour a day or something to for a walk/run etc.

No meeting other people at all.

 

[miss direct]

Were you only allowed out on your own, or could you go for a walk with someone from your household?