Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[planetgeli]

Oh ffs
You are making the point that WG made decisions just to be different to englund, can you not see that they are just making their own decisions? (however muddled)

Muddled for sure. Glad we agree on something (so simply illustrated by massive immediate U-turns).

But yes. I do believe some of those decisions are being made to show a contrast with the UK government, rather than a deeply thought out strategy.

Like the local lockdown Llanelli received. The first 'town' lockdown in the UK. Done 'because' Llanelli's figures went over 100 per 100,000 cases. Now, two months on, the county Llanelli is in has cases rising above 350/100,000. Three and a half times worse than the Llanelli local lockdown. So where is the consistency now? Where's the lockdown, local or otherwise? Where is this deeply thought out strategy?

There isn't one. So yes, I conclude those earlier moves were a knee-jerk response to be seen to be doing something, something the UK wasn't. If it wasn't that then why does Carmarthenshire now have no new policy, no lockdown, not even a firebreak, when things are 3.5 times worse?

 

[ddraig]

Muddled for sure. Glad we agree on something (so simply illustrated by massive immediate U-turns).

But yes. I do believe some of those decisions are being made to show a contrast with the UK government, rather than a deeply thought out strategy.

Like the local lockdown Llanelli received. The first 'town' lockdown in the UK. Done 'because' Llanelli's figures went over 100 per 100,000 cases. Now, two months on, the county Llanelli is in has cases rising above 350/100,000. Three and a half times worse than the Llanelli local lockdown. So where is the consistency now? Where's the lockdown, local or otherwise? Where is this deeply thought out strategy?

There isn't one. So yes, I conclude those earlier moves were a knee-jerk response to be seen to be doing something, something the UK wasn't. If it wasn't that then why does Carmarthenshire now have no new policy, no lockdown, not even a firebreak, when things are 3.5 times worse?

You conclude, in your opinion

 

[2hats]

He was very coy about saying anything about the new variant that would allow nerds to instantly know which strain and mutations they are referring to with all this new variant talk.

Smart money appears to be on N501Y with the H69/V70 double deletion.

May have increased ACE2 affinity and able to evade some antibodies. Not likely to evade most of the new vaccines though. Has been seen elsewhere before, so I understand.

 

[Cloo]

Great, my parents are flying back on Thursday to one of the worst rates in London (Enfield) - probably just as well they'll need to quarantine. Have offered to drop shopping over on Weds night, though my mum is sufficently organised that she may well have ordered a shop in for their arrival some time ago.

 

[elbows]

Smart money appears to be on N501Y with the H69/V70 double deletion.

Soon to be known as the GrinS:N501Y that stole Christmas. Or at least maybe thats the emergency backup plan on the u-turn excuses/get the public to take things seriously front.

 

[elbows]

Hold my beer, says Whitty...

View attachment 243530

This was just him covering the same sort of territory that posters like me are on about when we mention selection pressure on the virus if we get to the point where lots of people are immune to common strains via vaccination. The mutations are random but those that just happen to offer an advantage such as being able to infect lots of people that are otherwise protected, would have a hefty advantage, which could cause them to dominate.

So its just standard theory really. And a lot of these experts will have long presumed that the most likely future for this virus is of it continuing to lurk on the scene, requiring ongoing vaccination programmes where the vaccine evolves whenever the virus evolves sufficiently to require a new vaccine strain selection. ie plenty of things in common with flu vaccination programmes. So when the press start asking vaccine questions in response to the new strain talk of today, this subject is part of the questioning and so the experts will end up going over aspects that arent actually one of their greatest concerns with this new strain.

 

[elbows]

Smart money appears to be on N501Y with the H69/V70 double deletion.

May have increased ACE2 affinity and able to evade some antibodies. Not likely to evade most of the new vaccines though. Has been seen elsewhere before, so I understand.

Yes, cheers for the info. I note that one of the things Whitty was trying to describe today was the difficulty in being able to easily tell the difference between a strain that is being seen more and more because it has some actual advantage, and a strain that is only being seen more and more because it was in the right place at the right time, ie somewhere that a lot of spread of the virus was happening for other reasons, and that strain had no built in special advantage that lead to its explosion in numbers.

That difficulty is certainly the main reason that my attempts to explore the genome side of this pandemic (via data and analysis done purely by other people, I dont have the skills) have not lead me to any interesting conclusions so far.

edit, oops there was a tweet I meant to include in this post, here it is:

 

[elbows]

One Brexit & pandemic moment in time via trending twitter tags.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky News reporting that Gavin Williamson has served notice on Greenwich to keep their schools open, under threat of them being taken to the High Court and getting issued with an injunction.

 

[nagapie]

Sky News reporting that Gavin Williamson has served notice on Greenwich to keep their schools open, under threat of them being taken to the High Court and getting issued with an injunction.

My son is at a Greenwich school. At the weekend we received notice they would close. This evening we received notice that they will reopen.

 

[cupid_stunt]

My son is at a Greenwich school. At the weekend we received notice they would close. This evening we received notice that they will reopen.

That would be because of this breaking story, I've got a link now.

Government launches legal action against Greenwich school closures

Education secretary uses emergency Covid legislation for first time over London council’s plans

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

Sky News reporting that Gavin Williamson has served notice on Greenwich to keep their schools open, under threat of them being taken to the High Court and getting issued with an injunction.

Their amazing planning and priorities for winter season was to get the NHS to focus most of its effort on getting routine stuff going, and to force education to open in person at all costs.

And because they have had to u-turn on so much so many times, they seem to have decided to make education the battleground, their area of no surrender, a priority they would rather deliver in corrupt and useless form than do the right thing that involved an obvious u-turn and obvious economic implications. It seems only the magnitude and shock of the first wave, and the further shock of their experts having got the timing estimates all wrong, that forced their hand on education the first time. Now winter is testing it, and the government response is classic tory shit. They also know that school holidays will soon come anyway, and they can make temporary use of that when trying to ignore uncomfortable data. But then next year they wont have that automatic holiday wiggle room again for a while, so their stubbornness will be tested again.

 

[planetgeli]

My son is at a Greenwich school. At the weekend we received notice they would close. This evening we received notice that they will reopen.

Carmarthenshire. December 3rd.

In a letter sent to parents, signed by both executive board member for education, Glynog Davies, and director of education and children’s services, Gareth Morgans, they admit that it is a “very challenging” time for the county’s schools but that the decision has been made to keep them open.

The letter states: “I am aware that there has been discussion in the press in regard to the pressures on the education system and suggestions in regard to the last week of term.

“Having considered all the evidence and the scientific advice available, I write to confirm that our schools remain open until December 18 as planned.

Carmarthenshire December 11th

Secondary schools will close from today

And that was after threatening disciplinary action on a Head who closed her school on Dec 9th.

 

[elbows]

A man who crossed the Irish Sea from Scotland to the Isle of Man "on a jet ski" to visit his girlfriend has been jailed for breaching Covid-19 laws.
Douglas Courthouse heard 28-year-old Dale McLaughlan took four-and-a-half hours to travel from the Isle of Whithorn to Ramsey on Friday.
McLaughlan, from North Ayrshire, made the crossing despite having never driven a water scooter before.
He admitted arriving unlawfully on the island and was jailed for four weeks.

Covid: Man jailed for Scotland-Isle of Man water scooter crossing

Dale McLaughlan travelled across the Irish Sea on a water scooter to see his girlfriend, a court hears.

www.bbc.co.uk

Sounds a bit like a Milk Tray advert gone wrong (yay more dated references). And all because the island hates Covid-19.

 

[Aladdin]

In a statement, Mr Hancock said: "Over the last few days, thanks to our world-class genomic capability in the UK, we have identified a new variant of coronavirus which may be associated with the faster spread in the South of England."

Kind of reads a bit show offy?

 

[Wilf]

Covid: Man jailed for Scotland-Isle of Man water scooter crossing

Dale McLaughlan travelled across the Irish Sea on a water scooter to see his girlfriend, a court hears.

www.bbc.co.uk

Sounds a bit like a Milk Tray advert gone wrong (yay more dated references). And all because the island hates Covid-19.

Apart from him being a fuckwit, as an aside, stories like this give you a real sense of how people's brains are wired differently in terms of risk. 'Never been on a jet ski? Fancy a 25 mile open see journey on your own? Yeah, why not?'

 

[weltweit]

Apart from him being a fuckwit, as an aside, stories like this give you a real sense of how people's brains are wired differently in terms of risk. 'Never been on a jet ski? Fancy a 25 mile open see journey on your own? Yeah, why not?'

I hope he at least had a compass ..

 

[Badgers]

Dutch going into full lockdown till 19/01
Germany till the 10/01

 

[Supine]

Dutch going into full lockdown till 19/01
Germany till the 10/01

We do it later and pay the price

 

[Badgers]

We do it later and pay the price

This (also posted in Xmas Bubble thread) seems sensible to me.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Dutch going into full lockdown till 19/01
Germany till the 10/01

Plus the Czech Republic is going into a partial lockdown, and Italy is considering further restrictions too.

The Netherlands and the Czech Republic have said they will follow Germany into strict second lockdowns over the holiday period, with Italy weighing similar measures to avoid a fresh surge in coronavirus infections over Christmas and new year.

In a rare television address, the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, said non-essential shops and businesses, gyms, museums, cinemas and theatres would close for five weeks after the country’s seven-day new case average rose by more than 40% in the past week.

Bars and restaurants in the Netherlands have been closed since mid-October but the partial lockdown has not slowed the spread of the virus enough, Rutte said, as anti-lockdown protesters booed and whistled outside his office.

They are closing schools too.

Netherlands and Czech Republic to enforce strict Christmas lockdowns

Countries follow Germany’s lead to try to stem cases, as Italy weighs up similar measures

www.theguardian.com

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

The British (English) government, with its supine, tailending “opposition” now appears to be doing whatever it can to kill as many of us as possible, wreck the NHS and destroy what is left of the economy before the vaccines have a chance to change the situation. At least that is what it looks like.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

The British (English) government, with its supine, tailending “opposition” now appears to be doing whatever it can to kill as many of us as possible, wreck the NHS and destroy what is left of the economy before the vaccines have a chance to change the situation. At least that is what it looks like.

Must still be more money that can be made out of it, somehow.

 

[Supine]

The British (English) government, with its supine, tailending “opposition” now appears to be doing whatever it can to kill as many of us as possible,

Don't blame me!

 

[Cloo]

We do it later and pay the price

Yup, they'll do it by February but then we'll still be struggling in March while other countries are sorting their shit out.

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Must still be more money that can be made out of it, somehow.

Less “Disaster Capitalism” than “Complete and utter catastrophe capitalism”

 

[flypanam]

Apologies if this has been posted but the Sunday Times insight team wrote a long piece at the weekend, it’s got my blood boiling but worth a read if only to further demonstrate how utterly cavalier Johnson and the rest are, makes me think the Brexit brinkmanship on Sunday was to hide this story https://archive.vn/UWnAm

 

[Teaboy]

It strikes me that testing capacity is going to come under some serious strain over the next week to ten days, especially in the South East. Clearly infection rates are very high but I imagine there will also be a fair amount of people who don't have symptoms but will want a negative test before they head off to see family at Christmas.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Yup, they'll do it by February but then we'll still be struggling in March while other countries are sorting their shit out.

I doubt we'll enter lockdown no matter the death toll. Not after the difficulty entering first times. Government has made it clear that no lives matter

 

[Teaboy]

I doubt we'll enter lockdown no matter the death toll. Not after the difficulty entering first times. Government has made it clear that no lives matter

I can easily see there being a repeat of November's 'lockdown'. In fact I think it very likely. There really isn't that much difference from tier 3 anyway and millions are either living with that or will be very shortly anyway.