maomao
普費斯
It fits a family of four with luggage when it has to. I just meant that maybe that was why they'd had some pressure to provide guidance.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
I mentioned it briefly
I can't see TFL arresting someone for pushing a wheelchair or buggy, either. Bu it's professionally designed and printed, not just someone scrawling a handwritten notice.
I just thought it was mildly amusing that on a sign for a lift they'd completely forgotten about some of the people who most need to use lifts. Like putting out bike stands with a notice saying "do not chain bikes here."
teuchter
je suis teuchter
And 4,329,277 people every day not catching covid on the train.I'm not sure that research is as reassuring as they think it is. According to the Office of Rail and Road there were an average of 4,329,670 UK rail journeys per day in the quarter to the end of March (which includes the run up to and beginning of lockdown). If there is a 1-in-11,000 chance of catching C-19 on the train, that would mean 393 people catching Covid on the train every day
Meanwhile about 400 people are injured in road traffic accidents every day, covid or not. 70 of them seriously and 5 of them killed.
And every day 460 people die of heart disease.
Numbers, eh.
The numbers that you quote don’t grow exponentially, whereas the numbers for a virus that spreads do, so it’s not really appropriate to compare a relatively static 400 to a number that will likely grow exponentially.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
This is blatantly industry propaganda bollocks as opposed to anything to do with science. It's not going to be possible to meaningfully model how Covid 19 will spread on a train because we don't have an accurate picture of how it spreads in any environment. It will, of course, be possible to run something you call modelling and get any result you like depending on the assumptions you input.
ska invita
back on the other side
Yeah a massive difference between trains now (sunny outside, windows open, with lots of space, never have to sit next to anyone) compared to winter, windows closed, train rammed, condensation on the windows etc...
teuchter
je suis teuchter
At the moment it's not growing exponentially. Do these numbers (if they are correct) suggest that if more people started travelling by train, we would be pushed back into exponential growth?
The point is relative risk isn't it? Unless no-one does anything at all, there are going to be re-infections. How does travelling on a train compare to going to the shop or a restaurant or a cinema? If it's low risk compared to these other things then it doesn't make sense to encourage people to eat out, whilst also restricting the mobility of a section of the population by giving them the impression that travelling by public transport is unsafe.
And keeping people off public transport has costs in terms of public health too.
Yeah it's just modelling and might be wrong. But so might assumptions about a bunch of other activities.
What's more interesting than the modelling to me is that contact tracing hasn't led back to public transport being a spreading event like other things have.
There have also been studies in Paris and New York that fail to show any correlation between use of the metro, and reinfection rates, I believe.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I believe they are attempting to do a bunch of different simulations with different types of train, occupancy levels and so on.
The one quoted assumed a fully A/C train - no openable windows at all, so I don't think the season would actually make much difference. I think they were also assuming a train that's busier than many are at the moment.
In March pre-lockdown, the numbers exploded exponentially in London. After lockdown, it stopped in its tracks. Something has to account for that — it can’t be that all behaviours were equally harmless. It’s notable to me that whilst bars, shops and restaurants are open and people are spending time together, one thing that hasn’t yet returned to normal is people commuting into the capital... and that infection rates also aren’t growing again.
When I was commuting, trains were properly PACKED packed. Not just standing room only but everybody pushed against each other. There is no AC on any SW train I would take and the windows are tiny and only open a crack. And I’d be on that train for an hour. It doesn’t take much imagination to think that such an environment might just possibly have been a driver of the infection rate.
So yes, if trains are empty at the moment, I can believe they would be relatively safe. But you can’t just say “everybody back on the train now” and expect it to remain that way.
When I was commuting, trains were properly PACKED packed. Not just standing room only but everybody pushed against each other. There is no AC on any SW train I would take and the windows are tiny and only open a crack. And I’d be on that train for an hour. It doesn’t take much imagination to think that such an environment might just possibly have been a driver of the infection rate.
So yes, if trains are empty at the moment, I can believe they would be relatively safe. But you can’t just say “everybody back on the train now” and expect it to remain that way.
I don’t think this is necessarily true. Yes, the overall numbers are low and it is currently safe to do many things, including traveling on a train now and again, and people are being more cautious than before and any growth may be minimal at present and difficult to see in the numbers for the country as a whole, but the growth that is happening around the country is still likely to be exponential.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
This is supposed to be the 'easy time' as it were; before the winter hits and people are inside more, before coughs and colds are more common, before schools go back, etc. and yet we're still seeing a growth in cases, and local lockdowns with what looks like more of them on the way. I think fatigue with obeying social distancing measures is well set in too, and it's going to be a struggle to reverse that. I just can't see this winter being anything except another (and longer) disaster like March, April, and May were this year.
I did my second pub visit last night. Initially booked an outside table for a meal, and then happened to go past the pub on the way out of town for a swim and walk and the garden was packed full of people. Cancelled that booking and went to another quieter pub. Sat outside at a table, and the set up was mostly pretty good. No sign of contact details being taken or asked for though. Maybe the fact they had our name and phone from the booking was enough...?
My bet is pubs will be shut again before schools go back. And how the fuck are schools going to open in any way that isn't regularly disruptive for them? All it'll need is one positive test in a class/year group and then they'll be a load of kids and households self isolating, and/or one person with a cough or temp and then a load of people self isolating and getting tested. Repeatedly. That only need to happen a few times within one school each term and it'll all be a confused and chaotic mess.
I did my second pub visit last night. Initially booked an outside table for a meal, and then happened to go past the pub on the way out of town for a swim and walk and the garden was packed full of people. Cancelled that booking and went to another quieter pub. Sat outside at a table, and the set up was mostly pretty good. No sign of contact details being taken or asked for though. Maybe the fact they had our name and phone from the booking was enough...?
My bet is pubs will be shut again before schools go back. And how the fuck are schools going to open in any way that isn't regularly disruptive for them? All it'll need is one positive test in a class/year group and then they'll be a load of kids and households self isolating, and/or one person with a cough or temp and then a load of people self isolating and getting tested. Repeatedly. That only need to happen a few times within one school each term and it'll all be a confused and chaotic mess.
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existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Still, at least no kid will be creative or evil enough to fake Covid-19 symptoms to get out of English, or just for larfs...
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Yeah, that crossed my mind too. It's a license to skive!
I am cautiously optimistic that things won't get quite as disastrous as they were in March/April in that I hope that measures (closures, wfh etc) to reduce spread would be taken sooner, and that people's minds might get refocussed a bit.
I do worry that it might be a pretty long, dark, boring and lonely winter though.
And am also utterly baffled how this schools thing is supposed to work. In the words of my fave virologist, and I quote loosely "School is basically one big ongoing mass-gathering"
Wrt to schools I also wonder if the fact that so many children have siblings in other year groups doesn't make mockery of the idea of closed-ish bubbles, and of course teachers moving between them? Will be interesting to see what happens in Germany over the next couple of weeks. School reopened last week in one of the states, come Friday two schools had to close again for the next couple of weeks due to one identified case each. Schools in four more states are set to open this week (summer hols are always slightly staggered across the different states in Germany).
I do worry that it might be a pretty long, dark, boring and lonely winter though.
And am also utterly baffled how this schools thing is supposed to work. In the words of my fave virologist, and I quote loosely "School is basically one big ongoing mass-gathering"
Wrt to schools I also wonder if the fact that so many children have siblings in other year groups doesn't make mockery of the idea of closed-ish bubbles, and of course teachers moving between them? Will be interesting to see what happens in Germany over the next couple of weeks. School reopened last week in one of the states, come Friday two schools had to close again for the next couple of weeks due to one identified case each. Schools in four more states are set to open this week (summer hols are always slightly staggered across the different states in Germany).
clicker
nanook rubs it....
Maybe the once, until they realise they're being sent home to isolate as opposed to a sneaky Greggs and a wander around Primark. The phone call to the parents will no doubt make that clear .
I wonder if schools will all do temperature checks before the kids enter the buildings? It'd be something at least to protect staff and students.
It's all gone quiet on the how do we open schools safely front.
The workers using public transport at the moment must be dreading September.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I wouldn't say "everybody back on the train" and it might be that certain types of overcrowded commuter trains do pose a risk.
We basically don't know though, do we?
London hasn't gone back to normal yet. Pubs and restaurants may be open to some extent but a large number of people (me included) are only really wanting to visit them when there's outside seating. No nightclubs open. Lots of people still avoiding crowded indoor environments and minimising time spent in shops. Many people who were previously working in offices still not doing so.
Meanwhile, people have started using buses and trains again, but they aren't as busy as before.
So across the board there is only a partial return to normality. I don't think there's anything that lets us say much about transport risk relative to other things.
By the way when I was looking at numbers around the London peak, I think I noticed that the london commuter belt didn't seem to be following the same pattern, which you might expect it to do if commuter travel was a major driver of infection. Of course it's only a portion of the population in those places which commutes though.
clicker
nanook rubs it....
Trains are fine, buses getting busy and I've avoided the tube. Central London still ghost towny, evenings especially. It's a pleasure to walk around though.
Eta when I say buses getting busy, they're nothing like normal times, but you'll be nearer people than on a train. Most people wearing a mask.
elbows
Well-Known Member
We arent going to get an exact picture of risk from particular scenarios compared to others.
We do get a glimpse of such things when it comes to bus driver death risk, although again there are other contributing factors, but there are good reasons why they are described as being on the front lines.
Daughter urges inquiry into Covid-19 deaths of bus drivers in England
Call comes after report says earlier lockdown could have saved lives in London
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Thanks. Yeah I no intention of getting the tube, probably get a couple of buses and walk the rest of the time. I'll be Hackney/Dalston way with a venture to Stoke Newington, easy enough distance wise to walk about.
I am finding that most people in buses are not wearing masks. I'd say half are and half of those have their noses sticking out or are wearing them round their chins.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Yup.
maomao
普費斯
I was on London Overground yesterday and almost everyone was wearing a mask (I saw one guy without on the platform at Stratford but he could have put it on when he got on the train).
There were a few noses poking over here and there but not loads and I do feel a bit sorry for people with big noses. It does make them a lot harder to wear. Maybe that's why they were only worn widely in Japan and China before.
There were a few noses poking over here and there but not loads and I do feel a bit sorry for people with big noses. It does make them a lot harder to wear. Maybe that's why they were only worn widely in Japan and China before.
Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
I've got a big schnozz and I don't have any problems
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