Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[clicker]

I was on London Overground yesterday and almost everyone was wearing a mask (I saw one guy without on the platform at Stratford but he could have put it on when he got on the train).

There were a few noses poking over here and there but not loads and I do feel a bit sorry for people with big noses. It does make them a lot harder to wear. Maybe that's why they were only worn widely in Japan and China before.

I like the Overground, it usually feels airy. Was it busy or comfortable?

 

[editor]

Meanwhile in Brixton: jam-packed, all night party without a mask in sight.

 

[Cloo]

Interesting figures for Barnet - there has been quite a lot of stuff saying that cases were rising fast and watch out - I've been following them intermittently on BBC site and it was at 24 reported in one week about a fortnight ago, but this 8, down two from the week before that. Makes me wonder if that apparent 'spike' might have been, say, a single family gathering where a batch of people were traced and tested and found positive, rather than indicative of a wider upwards trend. Although one would expect with a group of that size for it to have spread wider unless they were only seeing one another.

 

[maomao]

I like the Overground, it usually feels airy. Was it busy or comfortable?

It was fine. Busy time on a Saturday so would normally be packed from Romford > Stratford with little hope of getting a seat on the way back. Didn't have to sit too near to anyone in either direction and certainly not next to anyone. Plenty of people about but like an off peak weekday not like 6pm on a Saturday. Only saw the new crossrail style trains which are very open inside too.

Westfields was surprisingly busy. I only popped in for a wee though, I can't take more than a few minutes of that place anyway.

 

[Teaboy]

There seems to be another push happening from the usual suspects to get everyone back to work because we can now treat the virus fine, its no longer a big issue, herd immunity is just around the corner etc etc.

With this is mind I find it interesting what is happening with my partner's current employer. They have a Central London office and back at the start of June they decided to reopen it but only at 20% of its usual capacity and only for those who wanted to use the office. Everyone could continue to work from home if they wised. The 20% was quickly filled up and they've been running like that for a couple of months.

In the last couple of weeks they have tried to increase this to 40% capacity with very few takers. It seems that only around 20% of their workforce have any desire to return to the office. Obviously different industries and different companies will have their own staff demographics but if the numbers are similar with other places there is a battle brewing.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Interesting figures for Barnet - there has been quite a lot of stuff saying that cases were rising fast and watch out - I've been following them intermittently on BBC site and it was at 24 reported in one week about a fortnight ago, but this 8, down two from the week before that. Makes me wonder if that apparent 'spike' might have been, say, a single family gathering where a batch of people were traced and tested and found positive, rather than indicative of a wider upwards trend. Although one would expect with a group of that size for it to have spread wider unless they were only seeing one another.

I think this is what we're seeing, yes. Overall levels are down now such that single superspreader events can stand out. Been following at the local level in London and this random up-down has happened more than once. The worst-affected borough changes pretty much weekly.

tbh the media are not helping with this at all. I've seen various headlines about 'surges' that are nothing of the kind.

 

[Artaxerxes]

tbh the media are not helping with this at all. I've seen various headlines about 'surges' that are nothing of the kind.

Even more than usual this pandemic has exposed how poor the medias reporting is, very little information, a heavy focus on Sensation and Fear Mongering and attempts to grab headlines at the cost of in depth reporting.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Even more than usual this pandemic has exposed how poor the medias reporting is, very little information, a heavy focus on Sensation and Fear Mongering and attempts to grab headlines at the cost of in depth reporting.

Yep. And across the board. The BBC has been one of the worst offenders.

 

[brogdale]

 

[gosub]

M62 lorry fire closes motorway both ways over 'explosion' fears - 4 hour traffic jams.

North of England: local restrictions... local lockdowns clearly very different to what we went through earlier in the year. I live about a mile from a motorway but you can still hear the traffic noise on a quiet day, and we had a few of those

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Meanwhile in Brixton: jam-packed, all night party without a mask in sight.

View attachment 225745

Haven't we been here before with these moral panics about outdoor gatherings?

 

[SpookyFrank]

Even more than usual this pandemic has exposed how poor the medias reporting is, very little information, a heavy focus on Sensation and Fear Mongering and attempts to grab headlines at the cost of in depth reporting.

I dunno, there was a genuine 'holding the government to account' phase. IIRC it lasted from a Tuesday evening all the way to Wednesday lunch.

 

[editor]

Haven't we been here before with these moral panics about outdoor gatherings?

It's not a 'moral panic' but a local observation. These parties have been going on for months and months, and given the fact that people from ethnic minority backgrounds are "disproportionately" dying with coronavirus, I think it's OK to voice a concern or two. I certainly don't want to find myself in the epicentre of a new outbreak

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It's not a 'moral panic' but a local observation. These parties have been going on for months and months, and given the fact that people from ethnic minority backgrounds are "disproportionately" dying with coronavirus, I think it's OK to voice a concern or two. I don't want to find myself in the epicentre of a new outbreak

You think people from certain ethnic minority backgrounds have been disproportionately dying with coronavirus cos block parties? Any evidence of that at all?

 

[editor]

You think people from certain ethnic minority backgrounds have been disproportionately dying with coronavirus cos block parties? Any evidence of that at all?

I was rather hoping that you'd grown out of such wilful and childish misrepresentation. I clearly made no such claim. And at least half of the party takes place indoors, inside the underground car park - and it went on for about 12 hours. I'd say that's a bit of a risk, especially when it's taking place several times a week. What do you think?

Why are more people from BAME backgrounds dying from coronavirus?

People from ethnic minorities have been impacted more by coronavirus, but why?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[kabbes]

There seems to be another push happening from the usual suspects to get everyone back to work because we can now treat the virus fine, its no longer a big issue, herd immunity is just around the corner etc etc.

With this is mind I find it interesting what is happening with my partner's current employer. They have a Central London office and back at the start of June they decided to reopen it but only at 20% of its usual capacity and only for those who wanted to use the office. Everyone could continue to work from home if they wised. The 20% was quickly filled up and they've been running like that for a couple of months.

In the last couple of weeks they have tried to increase this to 40% capacity with very few takers. It seems that only around 20% of their workforce have any desire to return to the office. Obviously different industries and different companies will have their own staff demographics but if the numbers are similar with other places there is a battle brewing.

Yes, I think this is right. Our office has opened on a voluntary basis at 50% capacity from today but zero of my team members have taken up the option. It really seems to be younger people in flat shares or living at home who primarily want to go into the office.

I saw a news item on Bloomberg a few days ago that baked this up with some statistics too, which I forget now. But I do remember the proportion returning to the office in London is less than half that of other major European cities such as Paris. Lots of reasons for that, but it’s worrying the London local authorities.

 

[editor]

Some encouraging signs in Wales

No deaths and 12 new cases in Wales
No new coronavirus deaths have been reported in Wales, meaning the total number of people who have died with the virus there remains at 1,579.
A further 12 cases of Covid-19 have been recorded in the most recent 24-hour period by Public Health Wales.
UK-wide figures will be published later today.

There were no new deaths reported by Public Health Wales on 13 occasions in July (July 6, 10, 12, 13, 16, 18, 20, 21, 23, 24, 25, 27 and 28) and twice previously this month on August 3 and 9.

Wales records no new coronavirus deaths for second day in a row

There have been 12 new cases reported

www.walesonline.co.uk

 

[Sue]

Yes, I think this is right. Our office has opened on a voluntary basis at 50% capacity from today but zero of my team members have taken up the option. It really seems to be younger people in flat shares or living at home who primarily want to go into the office.

I saw a news item on Bloomberg a few days ago that baked this up with some statistics too, which I forget now. But I do remember the proportion returning to the office in London is less than half that of other major European cities such as Paris. Lots of reasons for that, but it’s worrying the London local authorities.

Yes, all this. My company has quite a lot of youngsters who live in flat shares etc but even then, not that many have taken it up. I think something like 90/350 are back but the vast majority of those are only doing a couple of days a week in the office.

 

[teuchter]

Yes, I think this is right. Our office has opened on a voluntary basis at 50% capacity from today but zero of my team members have taken up the option. It really seems to be younger people in flat shares or living at home who primarily want to go into the office.

I saw a news item on Bloomberg a few days ago that baked this up with some statistics too, which I forget now. But I do remember the proportion returning to the office in London is less than half that of other major European cities such as Paris. Lots of reasons for that, but it’s worrying the London local authorities.

I'm looking forward to office rental prices plummeting in the city so that I can rent myself a floor of a skyscraper for £200/month.

 

[elbows]

I note that the seroprevalence surveillance (antibody stuff) section from the weekly surveillance report includes this:

For the second week running, we have observed a small rise in the number of samples in the equivocal range, which suggests waning immunity may be a contributing factor to the lower prevalence. Overall the proportion of samples in the equivocal range (assay results 0.8 to 1.1) increased from 0.6% during June to 1.1% during July.

From the August 7th report available at National COVID-19 surveillance reports

This report also reminds me that we have not managed to prevent all care home outbreaks.



As far as the watch-list for regions with increasing cases detected go, Swindon is the one thats shown to have the worst trajectory by this measure. But the data used is already some days out of date, and the most recent picture there is slightly more mixed on the government dashboard.

 

[quimcunx]

More renting people at my work are interested in moving further out for more room or going home to family abroad and working from there than returning to the office. Unfortunately they've been unable to make plans for the former because management have been tardy in planning for longer term wfh. And they have claimed were not insured for people working from home abroad during covid. They have agreed to look at that again after mass grumbling.

 

[Maltin]

More renting people at my work are interested in moving further out for more room or going home to family abroad and working from there than returning to the office. Unfortunately they've been unable to make plans for the former because management have been tardy in planning for longer term wfh. And they have claimed were not insured for people working from home abroad during covid. They have agreed to look at that again after mass grumbling.

I imagine that there might be tax implications for that too.

 

[pesh]

My wife's workplace is the same, it's been partially open for a couple of months due to there being aspects of their business that can't be done at home but the offices themselves have been shut since lockdown.
a couple of younger people in flatshares and living at home with their parents have asked about going back into the office but everyone else from management down has been against it. They're saying they'll look at the situation again in October, but yeah, it really looks like WFH will remain an option for them, and a very popular one.

 

[quimcunx]

I imagine that there might be tax implications for that too.

No one looking to move abroad permanently just visit family for a month or two instead of not visiting family or making 2 trips.

 

[Maltin]

No one looking to move abroad permanently just visit family for a month or two instead of not visiting family or making 2 trips.

I don’t think it matters whether it is permanent or not, just possible tax risks about employees working from a different country. I’m not aware of what exactly the tax risks are but our company has to be careful of who is working from where.

 

[andysays]

On the subject of changes to working patterns etc, here's an interesting article speculating about where we might be in a few years

This is what coronavirus will do to our offices and homes

 

[Artaxerxes]

On the subject of changes to working patterns etc, here's an interesting article speculating about where we might be in a few years

This is what coronavirus will do to our offices and homes

Well in favour of One Carriage per Passenger in the world of the future.

 

[redsquirrel]

Yes, I think this is right. Our office has opened on a voluntary basis at 50% capacity from today but zero of my team members have taken up the option. It really seems to be younger people in flat shares or living at home who primarily want to go into the office.

I saw a news item on Bloomberg a few days ago that baked this up with some statistics too, which I forget now. But I do remember the proportion returning to the office in London is less than half that of other major European cities such as Paris. Lots of reasons for that, but it’s worrying the London local authorities.

FT collected some data on 'economic recovery' (obvious usual caveats apply) but general trend backs up this picture.

 

[elbows]

Goodbye to the shitty celtralised top-down contact tracing approach!

Coronavirus: Contact tracers to be reduced by 6,000 in England

The rest will focus on reaching positive cases and their contacts in local areas, alongside local teams.

www.bbc.co.uk

But critics will see it as the latest example of the government departing from its centralised approach to tackling the outbreak. In June the government had to abandon its idea of using a national app to identify potentially infected people - because it didn't work.

Now, the top-down, high-tech strategy for contact tracing is making way for what seasoned local public health officials describe as old-fashioned "shoe leather epidemiology".

This relies on people with local knowledge collecting information by going door-to-door on foot.

 

[andysays]

View attachment 225987

Well in favour of One Carriage per Passenger in the world of the future.

One of the changes they suggest is that work times will be staggered to avoid everyone travelling on the train at the same time, but each passenger having their own carriage seems a little optimistic