Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
That was floating around as an opinion from the very earliest days - that Covid-19 will become just another flu, that we all have to try to avoid, get vaccinated against, but inevitably flares up every year.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
tbh while it's useful to zoom right in and see clusters, once you've zoomed in so far that you're catching clusters of 20-30 that signify doubling or tripling of cases, you may often be finding a single 'superspreader' event. Watching for a bit longer, you can then see that come down again. I've been following London for a while and since overall levels have been low around the start of June, this kind of randomly distributed up-down movement at the level of individual borough has happened several times.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I'm still mostly using ONS+NRS+NISRA numbers for deaths. There hasnt been a daily number, by date of actual death, thats been over 50 since the 9th July. It was more like 25-30 by the 2nd half of July.
I would guess the numbers you've been looking at are hampered by extreme lag, and many of the deaths they are reporting happened ages ago. I have to wait longer to see ONS data, but at least it correctly attributes deaths to the right date.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Gotta say I'm a bit perturbed by this controversy about the death numbers that the government has mentioned, saying they are over reported or something? It seems extremely unlikely especially since it was so hard to get tests at the height of the pandemic. What do you think about that?
maomao
普費斯
Some doctors are still terrible for doling out the antibiotics for no reason. I took my son to hospital with croup last year and the doctor spent five minutes explaining it was a viral infection and then started writing a prescription for antibiotics. I told her 'what you just said means he doesn't need that' but I still sort of felt guilty for refusing medicine for a one year old (he got better very quickly without them though).
The guidelines are here. I did look at them at the time and I think (I’m not absolutely sure) that they’ve been changed to be more cautious about prescribing antibiotics.
ETA: I presume my antibiotic prescription would come under this:
It does say:
ETA: I presume my antibiotic prescription would come under this:
It does say:
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I know the question was for elbows but as far as I can see it was just Hancock clutching at straws. I think it was the PHE numbers that were initially counting covid deaths as anyone who had died after testing positive. The problem being is that they may have died weeks or months later of something unrelated.
Obviously accurate data is important but the way he ordered an urgent enquiry just smacks of desperation. There is other data available than PHE, ONS being the obvious one but those numbers don't appear to paint a better picture. Hancock is out of his depth and desperate.
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
If he wasn't a horrible Tory cunt I'd feel sorry for Hancock tbh. As well as being totally out of his depth he must know his even more useless boss will have him marked down for a high profile sacking the moment he needs a convenient victim to offer up. If I was him I'd tell Johnson to stick it and quit tbh.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I didnt care to think about it that much because I wasnt relying on those particular numbers anyway. And they were always likely to get pissed off with those numbers at some point because of the amount of lag in them, they are still catching up with some of the cases that actually died ages ago, making their current reported numbers for recent days look worse. ONS doesnt suffer from that issue, and also still has an overall total that is much higher than the UK daily reported one, which is the main reason I stopped paying attention to the daily reported one.
Those issues aside, they moaned because they were envious of how the likes of Scotland have been able to report numerous days with no deaths. And so the fact we were reporting deaths including deaths where the positive test came a long time before the death was seized on as the main reason and they wanted to find a way to remove that issue. They said they were goin to stop publishing the numbers whilst they fixed this issue, but I'm not sure they ever did stop reporting in the end.
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frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Thats what I thought, my impression was that he wanted to find a way to change the number to make himself look better but I thought it might just be me being a conspiracy theorist lol.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Its not entirely unreasonable that when comparing different nations the numbers for each nation should be formulated using the same methodology. So if the other UK nations werent counting deaths that would have been counted in England, its a fair point. But they made too much of it and there are other lag issues too that make the daily number look worse than the current situation actually is.
I prefer the ONS etc methodology anyway, of counting deaths where COVID-19 was mentioned on the death certificate. When that is applied to the likes of Scotland via their NRS numbers, there have been an additional trickle of deaths there that have not been reported in the daily Scottish briefings. But still some days in the last month with 0 deaths in Scotland.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Preston is going into lock-down now.
www.mirror.co.uk
Preston added to north of England local lockdown list after surge in cases
The seven-day rate of new cases in the Lancashire city has risen from 20.3 per 100,000 people to 32.8 - with Public Health England data showing a surge in other northern areas such as shows as Manchester and Oldham
www.mirror.co.uk
not a trot
Well-Known Member
Just been having a chat with the neighbours over the fence. Their son, in his 20s, works in a body repair workshop. He was saying that since they returned to work, the guys have noticed the cleaning of the office, toilets and tearoom has been cut from 5 nights a week to just 2 nights. One of the guys complained about the smell in the tearoom coming from the bin where waste food etc is disposed of. Guy was given a large black sack and told to empty the bin on a daily basis when the cleaner hasn't been in. Turns out the company has a new director who bought into the company last year and is using covid as an excuse to make cutbacks. I asked about a Union rep, Paul, neighbours son just shrugged and said not allowed. Cuntish behaviour, cutting back on cleaning whilst this shitty virus is doing the rounds.
I don’t think it’s fair to blame just Hancock. I think there are many people who are keen to play down the situation and to claim that the official figures are over reported by just 1 person based on their reporting methods helps them in their view that it’s all an over reaction even if the official figures are probably understated by 10,000
I can't imagine how that's possible. I wonder where they're all staying actually, I think the language schools usually rely a lot on people hosting them in their homes, but that doesn't seem like it would be particularly popular at the moment.
maomao
普費斯
Home stays are rare and cost more. They mostly go in uni halls off season.
Cloo
Banana for scale
I'm assuming that's the most likely outcome tbh.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
I'm not sure that research is as reassuring as they think it is. According to the Office of Rail and Road there were an average of 4,329,670 UK rail journeys per day in the quarter to the end of March (which includes the run up to and beginning of lockdown). If there is a 1-in-11,000 chance of catching C-19 on the train, that would mean 393 people catching Covid on the train every day
maomao
普費斯
I'll just send my two year old up in his buggy first then shall I?
ash
Inittogether
Oh and how about some blind people or wheelchair users, people with learning disabilities etc who need to be accompanied.
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