Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
SpineyNorman
Inappropriate content removed
Who the fuck is kirsty allsopp?
She does those house buying programs on TV where a young couple (he's a freelance dog walking consultant and she paints flowers on tiles) have a budget of £850,000 for their starter home in Battersea.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Her own property company folded IIRC. So obviously a great source of advice on the subject. What sort of fuckwit you'd have to be to lose money in the housing market in this day and age I've no idea.
E2a: that was the other one, Phil. She's still a twat though.
Last edited:
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
She also has those "craft" programs on at Christmas and flogs the "craft" kits.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Daughter who lost her dad to coronavirus reveals horrific online abuse
One troll told her she should be 'hanged' for 'questioning our Government'
Absolute bootlicking scum
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Isn't she the one who smashed up her kids' iPads?
ETA: Yes, existentialist, she is. Well remembered, you clever chap. Kirstie Allsopp leaves Twitter over iPad row
ETA: Yes, existentialist, she is. Well remembered, you clever chap. Kirstie Allsopp leaves Twitter over iPad row
And the one who flies business but sends her kids to the back in cattle.
I fear though, we are moving away from the crux of the thread.
elbows
Well-Known Member
elbows
Well-Known Member
Revealing language:
From BBC live updates page 15:46 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53675591
More revealing language:
From BBC live updates page 15:46 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53675591
More revealing language:
Bank of England boss Bailey backs end of furlough scheme
UK economy is still set for worst performance in 100 years according to the UK's central bank.
www.bbc.co.uk
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
56.1%? That's very precise.
clicker
nanook rubs it....
I read the 1st somewhere else too and thought it odd.
It feels to me as though currently we're like lab rats. We're being told to behave in x way and the results are being monitored.
But come the 1st of Sept (?) thousands of new rats are going to be released into our maze and the results will be monitored.
I can understand why it's experimental, but can only hope any necessary actions are taken sooner rather than later if the results indicate they're needed.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
40 new cases this week in the area I work. Shit.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
Leeds Council announces these 'key actions' in Leeds 'coronavirus cluster' areas
Leeds Council has announced a series of 'key actions' to take place in communities which have a 'cluster' of coronavirus cases.
www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk
BCBlues
Lend us a Twenner
Leeds Council announces these 'key actions' in Leeds 'coronavirus cluster' areas
Leeds Council has announced a series of 'key actions' to take place in communities which have a 'cluster' of coronavirus cases.
Very similar actions being taken in Sandwell where local track and trace teams are performing so much better than Hancox half hour brigade.
Why Sandwell has a 'mini lockdown' and when it will end Why Sandwell has a 'mini lockdown' and when it will end
Cloo
Banana for scale
Quite interesting and encouraging discussion here:
Drs saying the hospital admissions and serious cases still actually very low, so maybe some hope that better identification (and maybe implication virus is losing strength) might indicate we are on a path to just be able to live with it sooner rather than later. Though obviously, still far fewer people going into work, kids not at school etc, and I don't know if it could just all be a bit less severe in warmer weather?
But they make the important point that the data needs to be looked at in context - not just rising infection, but hospital admissions and deaths.
Drs saying the hospital admissions and serious cases still actually very low, so maybe some hope that better identification (and maybe implication virus is losing strength) might indicate we are on a path to just be able to live with it sooner rather than later. Though obviously, still far fewer people going into work, kids not at school etc, and I don't know if it could just all be a bit less severe in warmer weather?
But they make the important point that the data needs to be looked at in context - not just rising infection, but hospital admissions and deaths.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The virus losing strength is a complex subject, especially since many of the things that might look like the virus losing strength are about our perceptions rather than the strength of the virus. Now is the wrong moment for me to try to find signs of this that could be separated from all the other stuff that affects perceptions and current levels of hospital admissions, intensive care cases and deaths.
The current number of cases is nothing like the number of cases we had during the terrible part of the first wave. We dont have good real numbers from that initial period because the testing regime was so crap, but for a while it was possible for authorities to overlook and underestimate the number of cases, which was very large, without having their incorrect views very quickly corrected by hospital data. By the time that changed and even they couldnt miss the horror, it was rather late and infections had spiralled to scary high levels. The surveillance situation is quite different now, and we can pick things up at much lower levels, long before I would expect them to show up in terrible ways in hospital data. And when I say long before Im not just talking about the one to several weeks lag between infections and hospital admissions/deaths, I also mean at levels that may never lead to anything that shows up in hospital data later, especially if we act appropriately when infection increases are detected in a particular place.
I dont have a good number for how many of the deaths would be missing from the picture if we have a great handle on hospital and care home infections during any major wave or general resurgence of the virus, but it was a fairly large proportion of cases in the first wave so I'd expect that to make a difference next time if we can hold onto those infection control gains.
The possibility that more people are better able to fight off infection in the summer for a number of possible reasons cannot be excluded either.
There is plenty to be happy about with the current hospital data. It shouldnt be used as a reason to be more relaxed about what measures we take from now on though. We should keep an eye on it but premature conclusions on this front could be a disaster, so some of the nerves will have to remain until we see what a winter is like. And I would still use hospital data if I wanted to try to convince someone with too much of a 'its all over' attitude that the daily realities of the virus are not insignificant. For example hospital admission numbers are very low compared to the first peak, but we are still talking about 142 patients admitted in the UK in a day, and that number is limited by the fact the numbers for all UK nations except Wales that are being stuck on the uk dashboard are only confirmed cases. And I can look at the numbers for Wales and speculate in my mind about what Englands number would be like if it included suspected cases.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk
As for Scotland, I can add something to the picture by looking at their data for the number of suspected COVID-19 ambulance attendances and number of suspected COVID-19 patients taken to hospital using table 3 of the first spreadsheet on the following site. Or at least I used to be able to, now that I look again they stopped providing this data after the 20th July entry so I'm now in the dark on that and this does not impress me. Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot
But yeah, nothing I am trying to say here is designed to paint a grim picture of the current hospital situation. It does not surprise me given the current number of infections we have. Lockdown and various other measures were far too late last time so we shouldnt be judging the need to act and keep the virus transmission levels down by the standards that were used the first time around. But that also means that when we hear about spikes that have alarmed the authorities enough that they impose measures on a particular location, we should not automatically expect to see a few weeks later a notable rise in very ill people and deaths.
There are other possibilities too but its way too early for me to think I could pick them out from the stuff I already described.
The current number of cases is nothing like the number of cases we had during the terrible part of the first wave. We dont have good real numbers from that initial period because the testing regime was so crap, but for a while it was possible for authorities to overlook and underestimate the number of cases, which was very large, without having their incorrect views very quickly corrected by hospital data. By the time that changed and even they couldnt miss the horror, it was rather late and infections had spiralled to scary high levels. The surveillance situation is quite different now, and we can pick things up at much lower levels, long before I would expect them to show up in terrible ways in hospital data. And when I say long before Im not just talking about the one to several weeks lag between infections and hospital admissions/deaths, I also mean at levels that may never lead to anything that shows up in hospital data later, especially if we act appropriately when infection increases are detected in a particular place.
I dont have a good number for how many of the deaths would be missing from the picture if we have a great handle on hospital and care home infections during any major wave or general resurgence of the virus, but it was a fairly large proportion of cases in the first wave so I'd expect that to make a difference next time if we can hold onto those infection control gains.
The possibility that more people are better able to fight off infection in the summer for a number of possible reasons cannot be excluded either.
There is plenty to be happy about with the current hospital data. It shouldnt be used as a reason to be more relaxed about what measures we take from now on though. We should keep an eye on it but premature conclusions on this front could be a disaster, so some of the nerves will have to remain until we see what a winter is like. And I would still use hospital data if I wanted to try to convince someone with too much of a 'its all over' attitude that the daily realities of the virus are not insignificant. For example hospital admission numbers are very low compared to the first peak, but we are still talking about 142 patients admitted in the UK in a day, and that number is limited by the fact the numbers for all UK nations except Wales that are being stuck on the uk dashboard are only confirmed cases. And I can look at the numbers for Wales and speculate in my mind about what Englands number would be like if it included suspected cases.
UKHSA data dashboard
Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK
As for Scotland, I can add something to the picture by looking at their data for the number of suspected COVID-19 ambulance attendances and number of suspected COVID-19 patients taken to hospital using table 3 of the first spreadsheet on the following site. Or at least I used to be able to, now that I look again they stopped providing this data after the 20th July entry so I'm now in the dark on that and this does not impress me. Coronavirus (COVID-19): trends in daily data - gov.scot
But yeah, nothing I am trying to say here is designed to paint a grim picture of the current hospital situation. It does not surprise me given the current number of infections we have. Lockdown and various other measures were far too late last time so we shouldnt be judging the need to act and keep the virus transmission levels down by the standards that were used the first time around. But that also means that when we hear about spikes that have alarmed the authorities enough that they impose measures on a particular location, we should not automatically expect to see a few weeks later a notable rise in very ill people and deaths.
There are other possibilities too but its way too early for me to think I could pick them out from the stuff I already described.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
I guess if people have access to early treatment testing positive isn't necessarily going to result in disaster or a bad illness even if they have something else making them susceptible. Additionally at the height of the pandemic it was (and still is in eg parts of the USA) hard to get a test so the sickest patients ended up being tested I guess
elbows
Well-Known Member
Is anyone who doesnt develop a bad illness from it actually getting any treatment? I am out of date, and so in my mind I still think of the situation where people arent encouraged to seek treatment unless their condition deteriorates, but that might not be how things are done anymore, I dont know.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Vast majority of cases (over 80 percent) now found by pillar 2 so not people seeking hospital treatment. Hospitalised cases now at about 1000 and falling everywhere from 20000 peak. Average deaths in hospital now under 10 a day.
I'm a little puzzled by the 50 or so deaths per day still outside hospital. This is out of line with the rest of Europe. I don't know if that's a reporting issue or a real difference.
It has to be encouraging that the various spikes and local hotspots both here and elsewhere in Europe are not translating into hospitalisations and increased deaths. Whatever the explanation, it is encouraging. Measuring by serious cases there is no second spike anywhere in Europe atm.
Fwiw Zoe Covid did its weekly update today and estimates daily new symptomatic cases to be falling again after a small increase. Down to 1500 from 2000.
I'm a little puzzled by the 50 or so deaths per day still outside hospital. This is out of line with the rest of Europe. I don't know if that's a reporting issue or a real difference.
It has to be encouraging that the various spikes and local hotspots both here and elsewhere in Europe are not translating into hospitalisations and increased deaths. Whatever the explanation, it is encouraging. Measuring by serious cases there is no second spike anywhere in Europe atm.
Fwiw Zoe Covid did its weekly update today and estimates daily new symptomatic cases to be falling again after a small increase. Down to 1500 from 2000.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
I wonder how much vitamin D is playing a role in keeping things safe at the moment, seem to recall there was a lot of talk adequate levels of that seemed to help deal with it back in the start of this.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Haven't watched the video but this came up in an interview I listened to last night. The interviewer said something like, "well infections are going up but hospitalisations and death are still low." The answer was yes, but the people getting infected now will be in hospital and die in 1-2 months so there's a time lag we need not to be complacent about.
Also percentage of positive tests going up, so amount of positive tests not down to just more testing.
And no, afaik no treatment for non-hospital non-critical cases. Nothing beyond self care anyway.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Yeah, same, massive increase in cases in exactly my postcode. FFS.
The outcome of a 111 call for me was a prescription for an inhaler and some antibiotics.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Interesting analysis of test & trace here, it's a paywall but I think you should get two free articles a month without registering:
www.spectator.co.uk
Is our test-and-trace system ready to stop a second spike?
We are going to hear a lot about Test, Trace and Isolate (TTI) in coming weeks, as we approach autumn and fears of a second wave of Covid-19 grow. Now we have moved away from national lockdown but do not yet have a vaccine, the test-and-trace system is our main bulwark against a resurgence of
www.spectator.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
1-2 months? Thats not the amount of lag we've been encouraged to think about in this regard before. More like a few weeks. If I include the extreme end of estimates for an incubation period, I suppose I could start to get closer to a month, but not 2 months. If I was only talking about the people who spend ages in intensive care before passing away then I could obviously stretch that a bit further, but it would show up in the intensive care figures earlier than that.
Similar threads
