Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[SpookyFrank]

Yeah, same, massive increase in cases in exactly my postcode. FFS.

Where are you folks getting this data btw? I'd like to know what's going on round here.

 

[zahir]

This gives weekly cases by local authority, not by postcode though. Cornwall is still very low.

Coronavirus near me: are UK Covid cases rising in your local area?

Latest updates: how has Covid-19 progressed where you live?

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

Interesting analysis of test & trace here, it's a paywall but I think you should get two free articles a month without registering:

I see the app is back in the news again:

Coronavirus: England's contact-tracing app readies for launch

The app will use QR barcode scans as well as Bluetooth handshakes to determine if users are at risk.

www.bbc.co.uk

On the point mentioned in this quote, I do wonder if, as well as the obvious limitations to bluetooth as a guide, they are concerned about the implications of such a scale of virtual contact tracing. Do they fear that it will potentially wipe out large numbers of, for example, medical staff, from the workforce in certain situations which, if they were handing manually rather than via app automation, they would have been able to fudge?

But it appears that Baroness Harding and others in charge of the NHS Test and Trace team still do not believe enough progress has been made to rely on Bluetooth signals to direct users to self-isolate for a fortnight.

 

[elbows]

This gives weekly cases by local authority, not by postcode though. Cornwall is still very low.

Coronavirus near me: are UK Covid cases rising in your local area?

Latest updates: how has Covid-19 progressed where you live?

www.theguardian.com

Can also see cases per local authority on a daily basis using the dashboard, in the cases section, and then by clicking the dropdown near top of page to change location. Here is an example for Leicester.

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

As for data by postcode, I'm not sure. I've seen some data per ward before but I've forgotten where it was and it didnt seem to be updated very often. I think there was a version for deaths but also one for cases. edit - oh weekly cases in this format are on the map that is linked to from the lower right section of the cases part of the dashboard I just mentioned. But since its only weekly its a bit behind at the moment, curently showing week of 27th July-2nd August. View map

 

[Fruitloop]

The language schools are open again in Cambridge, looked like hundreds of youth from mostly Spain standing very close to each other outside one that I walked past last night. I'm struggling to imagine how this isn't a really bad idea.

 

[Dogsauce]

The language schools are open again in Cambridge, looked like hundreds of youth from mostly Spain standing very close to each other outside one that I walked past last night. I'm struggling to imagine how this isn't a really bad idea.

presume they’ve all quarantined for 14 days?

 

[Dogsauce]

As for data by postcode, I'm not sure. I've seen some data per ward before but I've forgotten where it was and it didnt seem to be updated very often. I think there was a version for deaths but also one for cases. edit - oh weekly cases in this format are on the map that is linked to from the lower right section of the cases part of the dashboard I just mentioned. But since its only weekly its a bit behind at the moment, curently showing week of 27th July-2nd August. View map

Nothing west of Weston-Super-Mare on that map. No wonder locals of Devon and Cornwall want to keep people out. Surprising how clear some areas are.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Haven't watched the video but this came up in an interview I listened to last night. The interviewer said something like, "well infections are going up but hospitalisations and death are still low." The answer was yes, but the people getting infected now will be in hospital and die in 1-2 months so there's a time lag we need not to be complacent about.

Also percentage of positive tests going up, so amount of positive tests not down to just more testing.

And no, afaik no treatment for non-hospital non-critical cases. Nothing beyond self care anyway.

It's not just a case of hospitalisations and deaths remaining low. They're continuing to fall. And this isn't just the pattern here in the UK. Lots of countries across Europe have seen new cases creeping up for a few weeks now without that showing up in deaths.

I wouldn't jump to conclusions as to why that is, but it doesn't fit well with previous patterns from time of diagnosis to time of hospitalisation. Taking Spain as the example, the worst-affected areas in the recent spike such as Catalunya and Aragon have been higher for around three weeks now. That isn't showing up with a surge in hospitalisation and death. There's been barely a blip.

 

[zahir]

It's not just a case of hospitalisations and deaths remaining low. They're continuing to fall. And this isn't just the pattern here in the UK. Lots of countries across Europe have seen new cases creeping up for a few weeks now without that showing up in deaths.

I wouldn't jump to conclusions as to why that is, but it doesn't fit well with previous patterns from time of diagnosis to time of hospitalisation.

Shielding the elderly and vulnerable may be working quite well by now. I seem to remember there was speculation early on about viral load being a factor in how seriously people are affected, so I wonder if infection controls, masks and general caution might be having an effect on this.

 

[two sheds]

The outcome of a 111 call for me was a prescription for an inhaler and some antibiotics.

Blue (salamol) inhaler or steroid? And that and antibiotics for symptoms of cv?

 

[LDC]

1-2 months? Thats not the amount of lag we've been encouraged to think about in this regard before. More like a few weeks. If I include the extreme end of estimates for an incubation period, I suppose I could start to get closer to a month, but not 2 months. If I was only talking about the people who spend ages in intensive care before passing away then I could obviously stretch that a bit further, but it would show up in the intensive care figures earlier than that.

I guess they were giving the outside longest time. <Anecdote warning> The person that I know that died was unwell for 2 months (home>hospital>ventilator>ECMO>dead), but guess there's a large variable depending on treatment.

 

[LDC]

Blue (salamol) inhaler or steroid? And that and antibiotics for symptoms of cv?

Cover the possibility that it might be asthma, COPD, or a bacterial infection that's causing the shortness of breath/whatever. Pretty standard.

 

[two sheds]

Cover the possibility that it might be asthma, COPD, or a bacterial infection that's causing the shortness of breath/whatever. Pretty standard.

blue then for short term

 

[zahir]

Blue - the same as for asthma. At that point I’d been having breathing difficulties so I think the logic was that the inhaler might be some help. I’m not sure about the reason for the antibiotics as they’re not going to affect a virus. Maybe there’s a concern about secondary infections, or they’re trying to cover the possibility of the symptoms being due to something else entirely.

 

[two sheds]

Nothing west of Weston-Super-Mare on that map. No wonder locals of Devon and Cornwall want to keep people out. Surprising how clear some areas are.

That's hopeful, I'd heard cases are on the rise because of tourists/second home owners coming down here.

 

[Orang Utan]

Is there a possibility that this pandemic might become an endemic, and we’ll just have to learn to live with it?

 

[LDC]

Blue - the same as for asthma. At that point I’d been having breathing difficulties so I think the logic was that the inhaler might be some help. I’m not sure about the reason for the antibiotics as they’re not going to affect a virus. Maybe there’s a concern about secondary infections, or they’re trying to cover the possibility of the symptoms being due to something else entirely.

General medicine, something going on? Throw a load of things at it and one of them might help, or they'll just get better anyway. If nothing does help then investigate further...

(Apologies to GPs!)

 

[LDC]

Is there a possibility that this pandemic might become an endemic, and we’ll just have to learn to live with it?

Uneducated guess is that is highly likely.

 

[two sheds]

General medicine, something going on? Throw a load of things at it and one of them might help, or they'll just get better anyway. If nothing does help then investigate further...

(Apologies to GPs!)

I've got (I presume) a bacterial infection which I've been resisting treating with antibiotics for a couple of weeks now, I may succumb and open the packet.

 

[LDC]

Where are you folks getting this data btw? I'd like to know what's going on round here.

There's stuff on the phe.maps.arcgis.com website by postcode but you have to register as well. Think might be not public access though.

 

[Dogsauce]

That's hopeful, I'd heard cases are on the rise because of tourists/second home owners coming down here.

Not sure how complete the data is - for example Bristol only shows about ten cases across a few districts, but last week there was a ‘cluster’ at a concrete batching plant in Avonmouth, off the top of my head it was something like 32 people testing positive. Possible the confirmed results haven’t made it to that week’s data set yet. Also possible they might be registered by home address, and a lot of people working around that way come over the bridge from Wales (which isn‘t part of the map/data coverage).

 

[elbows]

Is there a possibility that this pandemic might become an endemic, and we’ll just have to learn to live with it?

Thats what normally happens to pandemic viruses, although learning to live with it after its been around for years is usually a very different proposition to dealing with the initial pandemic. But thats usually because the immunity picture has massively changed by then, and its unclear quite what that will look like with this coronavirus due to immunity perhaps not lasting long. Even so we would expect the burden to be different because of treatments, vaccines, and a big chunk of the most vulnerable already having been killed by it. Plus even if immunity wanes, it still ends up being a different picture to one where the entire population has never experienced the virus before.

 

[elbows]

Not sure how complete the data is - for example Bristol only shows about ten cases across a few districts, but last week there was a ‘cluster’ at a concrete batching plant in Avonmouth, off the top of my head it was something like 32 people testing positive. Possible the confirmed results haven’t made it to that week’s data set yet. Also possible they might be registered by home address, and a lot of people working around that way come over the bridge from Wales (which isn‘t part of the map/data coverage).

I expect it is indeed by home address, and Im pretty sure it isnt by infection cluster location. But these are mostly assumptions on my part.

 

[frogwoman]

Thats what normally happens to pandemic viruses, although learning to live with it after its been around for years is usually a very different proposition to dealing with the initial pandemic. But thats usually because the immunity picture has massively changed by then, and its unclear quite what that will look like with this coronavirus due to immunity perhaps not lasting long. Even so we would expect the burden to be different because of treatments, vaccines, and a big chunk of the most vulnerable already having been killed by it. Plus even if immunity wanes, it still ends up being a different picture to one where the entire population has never experienced the virus before.

Most people still haven't had it yet have they?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Most people still haven't had it yet have they?

The US is working on hard on making sure everyone gets it.

 

[elbows]

Most people still haven't had it yet have they?

Indeed not, so what I'm describing there is not the current situation, its just what tends to eventually happen with pandemic viruses, eventually they arent novel for humanity anymore and so the implications of them are different. Which doesnt mean nobody suffers and dies, just that the numbers game is different and this makes a big difference to perceptions of the virus.

 

[xenon]

Where are you folks getting this data btw? I'd like to know what's going on round here.

I've been using this on the BBC site as it is a simple text layout. Might lack detail for some.

Covid inquiry: The UK pandemic in numbers

Explore the data on how the coronavirus pandemic unfolded in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[frogwoman]

Indeed not, so what I'm describing there is not the current situation, its just what tends to eventually happen with pandemic viruses, eventually they arent novel for humanity anymore and so the implications of them are different. Which doesnt mean nobody suffers and dies, just that the numbers game is different and this makes a big difference to perceptions of the virus.

And even if there is no lasting immunity doctors would be a lot more familiar with the virus and how to treat patients and so on i guess .

It's hard to say how far away from that scenario we are though.

 

[Orang Utan]

Where are you folks getting this data btw? I'd like to know what's going on round here.

ArcGIS Web Application

phe.maps.arcgis.com

 

[cupid_stunt]

I've been using this on the BBC site as it is a simple text layout. Might lack detail for some.

Covid inquiry: The UK pandemic in numbers

Explore the data on how the coronavirus pandemic unfolded in the UK.

www.bbc.co.uk

That only offers data for top tier local authority, for me - West Sussex County Council, the link elbows provided takes it down to lower tier local authority.

This link is for the Worthing Borough Council area, anyone can select their local area by using the arrow down link, next to Worthing at the top of the page.

UKHSA data dashboard

Overall summary of the respiratory viruses in circulation within the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk