Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Kaka Tim]

how long do people think the government can keep to their back of a fag packet plan of breezy optimism (bar death of a few thousand loved ones) , "herd immunity" and er .. wash you hands? I fully expect we will be in full on lockdown mode in a week or two - as death rates spiral and people start to panic. People, businesses and organisations are already taking their actions in this regard.
This is a situation that is crying out for comprehensive state intervention across pretty every areas of the economy and public sphere - with a fully detailed plan on how to protect the most vulnerable and maximise NHS resources (very much including staff). Also making sure people can get food - and pay the rent. Unlike Italy - they've had fucking weeks to plan this.
I hope im wrong - but it reeks of Johnsons and dominic wormtongue's approach of lazire faire improvisation with a side order of sociopathic lack of concern for public safety (see also - their brexit strategy).
They're are dozens of measures they could be taking now short of "lock down" - but not even seen so much as a fucking poster giving basic advice on slowing infection.

 

[elbows]

The National Education Union has written to the prime minister to ask why the government has decided not to shut schools to help reduce the spread of the virus and asking for "fuller disclosure" of the models it has used during its decision-making process.

And the '4 weeks behind Italy' thing seems to have started giving way to something with more wiggle room, at least for those at the BBC whose job seems to be to explain and justify the governments stance.

Analysis, By Nick Triggle, Health Correspondent.

Instead, the logic of the move is to relieve pressure on the emergency services in attendance. It was always envisaged that this would be done when we started seeing significant rises in the number of cases - that is thought to be at least a few weeks away.

If the government acts sooner than that - next week as seems to be suggested - it marks a change in approach already. Officials may feel they have been bounced into it sooner than planned by the decision of the Premier League and others to cancel events - or the fact other nations have taken the steps.

But if they are still working on a longer time frame, nothing much has changed since Thursday.

Coronavirus: UK deaths double in 24 hours

Ten more people have died after testing positive for the virus, NHS England says.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Hundreds of members of the scientific community have sent two open letters to the British government, voicing their concerns about the government’s response to the coronavirus outbreak.

One comes from 198 academics in the field of maths and science , calling for urgent measures of social distancing across the UK.

It says: “Going for “herd immunity” at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary.”

Another letter has been signed by 164 behavioural scientists. It raises concerns about the idea of ‘behavioural fatigue’ - the idea that if the public are instructed to take preventative measures too early, they’ll eventually revert back to prior behaviour.

The letter suggests that this has been a cornerstone of British government policy on coronavirus and sheds doubt on the evidence behind this.

“While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about “behavioural fatigue” or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances,” it says.

“If “behavioural fatigue” truly represents a key factor in the government’s decision to delay high-visibility interventions, we urge the government to share an adequate evidence base in support of that decision. If one is lacking, we urge the government to reconsider these decisions,” it ends.

5m ago 15:26

I'm glad people didnt wait for the '4 weeks behind Italy' stuff to be proven true or false, before pointing out the other problems with their approach. And no amount of bullshit from the state broadcaster, or laughable appeals from some quarters on this forum to trust the government, could hope to overcome this.

 

[SpookyFrank]

how long do people think the government can keep to their back of a fag packet plan of breezy optimism (bar death of a few thousand loved ones) , "herd immunity" and er .. wash you hands? I fully expect we will be in full on lockdown mode in a week or two - as death rates spiral and people start to panic. People, businesses and organisations are already taking their actions in this regard.
This is a situation that is crying out for comprehensive state intervention across pretty every areas of the economy and public sphere - with a fully detailed plan on how to protect the most vulnerable and maximise NHS resources (very much including staff). Also making sure people can get food - and pay the rent. Unlike Italy - they've had fucking weeks to plan this.
I hope im wrong - but it reeks of Johnsons and dominic wormtongue's approach of lazire faire improvisation with a side order of sociopathic lack of concern for public safety (see also - their brexit strategy).
They're are dozens of measures they could be taking now short of "lock down" - but not even seen so much as a fucking poster giving basic advice on slowing infection.

If the plan is what many seem to think it is, basically keep 'lockdown' in the toolbox for an as-yet-undetermined 'peak' time (never mind the fact we won't know where the peak is until we've already gone past it) so as to minimise economic disruption, then blinking too soon would basically undermine the whole thing and the end result would be indistinguishable from a half-arsed, too-late version of Italy's response.

Of course the fact that, as you say, they're not even taking relatively simple measures short of total lockdown does rather argue against there being any kind of plan at all.

Who fucking knows. Even if the government told us exactly what their plans were, either it would be a pack of lies or it would all get changed around on the hoof anyway.

 

[treelover]

how long do people think the government can keep to their back of a fag packet plan of breezy optimism (bar death of a few thousand loved ones) , "herd immunity" and er .. wash you hands? I fully expect we will be in full on lockdown mode in a week or two - as death rates spiral and people start to panic. People, businesses and organisations are already taking their actions in this regard.
This is a situation that is crying out for comprehensive state intervention across pretty every areas of the economy and public sphere - with a fully detailed plan on how to protect the most vulnerable and maximise NHS resources (very much including staff). Also making sure people can get food - and pay the rent. Unlike Italy - they've had fucking weeks to plan this.
I hope im wrong - but it reeks of Johnsons and dominic wormtongue's approach of lazire faire improvisation with a side order of sociopathic lack of concern for public safety (see also - their brexit strategy).
They're are dozens of measures they could be taking now short of "lock down" - but not even seen so much as a fucking poster giving basic advice on slowing infection.

Labour have been cautious about too much criticism on the plans as don't want to be seen as 'weaponing the issue' but Ashworth has been quite good, but now time for the robust bit to begin

I have just lost my main carer, gone back home from college to S.A, its near impossible to get carers even now, been in touch with the mutual aid groups, but it is not the same.

 

[elbows]

If the plan is what many seem to think it is, basically keep 'lockdown' in the toolbox for an as-yet-undetermined 'peak' time (never mind the fact we won't know where the peak is until we've already gone past it) so as to minimise economic disruption, then blinking too soon would basically undermine the whole thing and the end result would be indistinguishable from a half-arsed, too-late version of Italy's response.

Like I said earlier, they fucked up some of the comms regarding the peak, they were not intending to wait till we reached the peak. They were, like many other countries, going to wait till they had their indications that we were beginning to rapidly accelerate up the first epidemic curve. But they decided to describe it in their own special way, half-arse a load of measures, and say things about timescales which shook people who had been looking at the numbers faith that they would get the timing right at all.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who was scratching my head about the timing they were indicating, even before they started saying stuff about us being 4 weeks behind Italy. For example the press has been talking for some time about the emergency government legislation, and the proposed timetable was always said to be 'the end of March'. At the start of March this timetable sounded unrealistic and late, let alone now.

 

[treelover]

Hundreds of members of the scientific community have sent two open letters to the British government, voicing their concerns about the response to the coronavirus outbreak.
One comes from 198 academics in the field of maths and science, calling for urgent measures of social distancing across the UK.
It says: “Going for ‘herd immunity’ at this point does not seem a viable option, as this will put NHS at an even stronger level of stress, risking many more lives than necessary.”
Another letter has been signed by 164 behavioural scientists. It raises concerns about the idea of “behavioural fatigue” – the idea that if the public are instructed to take preventative measures too early, they’ll eventually revert back to prior behaviour.
The letter suggests that this has been a cornerstone of British government policy on coronavirus and sheds doubt on the evidence behind this.
“While we fully support an evidence-based approach to policy that draws on behavioural science, we are not convinced that enough is known about ‘behavioural fatigue’ or to what extent these insights apply to the current exceptional circumstances,” it says.
“If ‘behavioural fatigue’ truly represents a key factor in the government’s decision to delay high-visibility interventions, we urge the government to share an adequate evidence base in support of that decision. If one is lacking, we urge the government to reconsider these decisions,” it ends.

from the G updates

 

[SpookyFrank]

'Behavioural fatigue' is a funny way of saying 'not enough resources to survive for long periods with no income'.

 

[Plumdaff]

'Behavioural fatigue' is a funny way of saying 'not enough resources to survive for long periods with no income'.

Amen. An extended period of, if not lockdown, but strong social distancing, would involve state intervention that is a complete anathema to this government. Guaranteeing income and jobs, increasing funding massively to local government and social care, likely need for industrial substitution, and so on. They may be forced into this down the line, my fear is they will move far too late on purely ideological grounds.

 

[elbows]

In normal times I would probably not link to a Tom Peck article, but since he seems to have taken the idea that behavioural science may involve reverse psychology and ran with it, I will.

Tom Peck: The plan worked. Johnson told us to carry on and now we’re in coronavirus lockdown

All they had to do was get the least trusted man in the nation’s history to tell us that any kind of mass attempt at isolation would be counterproductive, and already it’s like ‘I Am Legend’ out there

www.independent.co.uk

It can only have been the nudge unit’s idea to get the least trusted man in the nation’s history to tell us that any kind of mass public lockdown would be counterproductive at this stage. Because 20 minutes later, it was immediately like I Am Legend out there.

It is well known in behavioural psychology circles that people are far more likely to keep to rules they have set for themselves than those that are imposed on them from the top down, so deploying Johnson to instil the required levels of blind panic by telling everyone there’s no need to panic is truly a stroke of genius.

I have speculated about that before, but I have taken no time to explore the literature on behavioural psychology.

Also in that article:

Two weeks ago, Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of Italy’s Democratic Party, posted a picture of himself, having an early evening drink in a Milan restaurant, alongside the words, “we need normality”.

Zingaretti is now in isolation having contracted coronavirus.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I have speculated about that before, but I have taken no time to explore the literature on behavioural psychology.

You have to be careful with that stuff as at least 50% of the entire field is baseless voodoo nonsense.

 

[treelover]

Petition: Implement UK lockdown for preventing spread of COVID19

The UK needs to follow suit the containment procedures of countries that have been greatly affected by COVID19 such as Italy. The UK should restrict unnecessary travel between towns and cities. Travel permitted should only be for work or emergencies. Public gatherings should also be discouraged.

petition.parliament.uk

petition calling for lock down, over 100,00 sigs already

 

[maomao]

I think when they say 'herd immunity' they're using it as a euphemism for 'just let the fuckers die'.

 

[quimcunx]

'Behavioural fatigue' is a funny way of saying 'not enough resources to survive for long periods with no income'.

Tbf it won't just be that.

 

[treelover]

We're about to learn a terrible lesson from coronavirus: inequality kills | Owen Jones

Thanks to a decade of austerity, the Tories have ensured the pandemic will hit the poor the hardest, says Guardian columnist Owen Jones

www.theguardian.com

Owen Jones back on form, it will really expose 40 years of neglect

 

[Kaka Tim]

Amen. An extended period of, if not lockdown, but strong social distancing, would involve state intervention that is a complete anathema to this government. Guaranteeing income and jobs, increasing funding massively to local government and social care, likely need for industrial substitution, and so on. They may be forced into this down the line, my fear is they will move far too late on purely ideological grounds.

Yep - exactly this.

 

[elbows]

You have to be careful with that stuff as at least 50% of the entire field is baseless voodoo nonsense.

Such as the joys of the 'human' branches of science.

 

[Shechemite]

Owen Jones back on form, it will really expose 40 years of neglect

 

[Part-timah]

Yes.

There seems to have been a move from "trust the experts" to "Cummings/Johnson dastardly plans" neither view is helpful or accurate. The UK government does seem to be pursuing a different strategy to other countries but science no more said that the UK approach was right on Thursday than it says it is wrong today.
There quite clearly is a scientific argument behind the governments actions. Whether it is the "right" one or not who knows but this sort of simplistic view of science and individualised politics does not provide any understanding.

It’s an excuse. Look at the extensive criticisms from experts in their field. The BBC is doing its best to spin it but Boris and Cummings are not fit for managing this.

 

[treelover]

I hope councils set up hand washing stations around cities, towns, now, very few public toilets, etc

and get the funds to do so.

 

[elbows]

A glimpse of what is actually planned:

 

[clicker]

Yes , I can see them now not planning on reopening until September. I think they're trying to hold out for an Easter shut down, but it's late this year.

 

[MrSki]

The Irish take on the British response.

 

[elbows]

The Irish take on the British response.

I finally ended up quoting parts of an EU document that give more info about the current state of the situation, the planned responses to it, some very large similarities to aspects of the UKs plans and public communication, and some key differences that have lead to the UKs version going down very badly.

They ended up in a different thread, so please forgive me linking to my own posts:

#3,628
#3,630

(its the 2nd link that is most directly relevant but the first ones quotes might help with context and understanding the EUs evolving stance).

My conclusion at the moment, which I am always willing to revisit, is that actually the UK approach has much in common with the EU stuff. Indeed we are probably still using the EU stuff but with a couple of twists in public communication, and publicly stated timescales, that have blown up in the UK governments face over the last couple of days.

I will include my final EU document quote from those posts here, because I believe it indicates the key difference between the EU stuff, and what the UK has told its public:

The evidence for the effectiveness of closing schools and workplaces, and cancelling mass gatherings is limited. However, one modelling study from China estimated that if a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including social distancing, had been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier in the country, the number of COVID-19 cases could have been reduced by 66%, 86%, and 95%, respectively, together with significantly reducing the number of affected areas.

That is a very large 'however', and it is the failure of the UK to focus on that bit that has lead to their plans going down so badly. Indeed they have implied stuff that makes us think their timing decisions are off in a different world, one where there will be many needless deaths.

 

[sihhi]

What this article explains is probably driving some of the decision making, trying to buy us a few weeks

'Unlike anything seen in peacetime': NHS prepares for surge in Covid-19 cases

Hospitals cancel non-urgent operations in unprecedented shutdown of normal activity

www.theguardian.com

I do also see the argument about immunity. Its a calculated risk that rests on the assumption that when the countries being hugely restrictive lift their restrictions it all kicks off again and the people you just protected die anyway.

Has this assumption been tested? That things are kicking off in China again after the return to work has started.

The herd immunity argument goes against virological sense since antibodies against other coronvidae do not last very long, chasing this where no vaccine exists is wrong.

A virus needs 70% of exposure in a given population. But how can 70% be exposed if not by the NHS being overpowered because a fifth of that 70% need hospitalisation, so over what timeframe is the 14% to enter hospital? It's a monstrous gamble.

 

[HoratioCuthbert]

I can’t remember what thread, but thanks for the mutual aid idea. I had my head up my arse for ages probs due to self enforced minimal comms, and was like “it’s just flu” (although in my defence I think the flu is serious shit)
Floated the idea amongst Orcadians this evening and got a speedy and positive response from loads already in 15 minutes, naturally cause people are pretty awesome given a chance. And I’m going to speak to the senior tomorrow about what’s happening in our care home, plans etc. Aye anyway I went in earlier for a chat but someone had fallen- ambulance, chaos. My mum’s work is already in lockdown(mad props Inverness) but ours is not.
Thanks to urban and Frogwoman and other randoms for disturbing my trance. Also pray for me when the schools close faaaackin ‘Ell. I.... just will not think about it right now. Can’t!

 

[sihhi]

A glimpse of what is actually planned:

I have seen twitter explain that this will be cushioned around the summer break.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Am I missing something here? So many people stating that we need to wait for a vaccine as herd immunity won’t work. Isn’t a vaccine just a low dose of the virus which then builds immunity? But as there isn’t one and won’t be one for ages, far too long to have people self isolating, the only way is to let the least vulnerable get it and hope that the most vulnerable can be kept away from it until most people are immune and hope there is the capacity to treat as best they can those most affected by it?

 

[Supine]

And lol at the antivaxer I saw on fb ranting about the cure not being ready yet!

 

[Lord Camomile]

Elderly could be quarantined for four months to combat coronavirus | ITV News

According to a government source, the perception ministers are reluctant to make difficult decisions to battle the virus is wrong. | ITV National News

www.itv.com

People over 70 will be instructed by the government to stay in strict isolation at home or in care homes for four months, under a "wartime-style" mobilisation effort by the government likely to be enforced within the next 20 days.

Other measures already being planned include:

• the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
• the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
• temporary closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings;
• emergency manufacture by several companies of respirators that would be necessary to keep alive those who become acutely ill;
• the closure of schools for perhaps a few weeks, but with skeleton staff kept on to provide childcare for key workers in the NHS and police.

According to a senior government source, the perception that ministers are reluctant to make difficult and costly decisions to battle the virus is wrong. It is simply that the chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance are waiting for the optimal time to force restrictions on our way of life that will be very painful.

They are deeply worried that some older people will simply die at home from neglect, after they are quarantined, so want to start the quarantine as late as possible - some time within the next five to 20 days.

My dad is not going to quarantine himself for four months. He's got various underlying health conditions, so if he gets it I am properly worried about his chances.

And fuck their "wartime-style" bullshit