Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[kropotkin]

Am I missing something here? So many people stating that we need to wait for a vaccine as herd immunity won’t work. Isn’t a vaccine just a low dose of the virus which then builds immunity? But as there isn’t one and won’t be one for ages, far too long to have people self isolating, the only way is to let the least vulnerable get it and hope that the most vulnerable can be kept away from it until most people are immune and hope there is the capacity to treat as best they can those most affected by it?

That is exactly the strategy, yes. Their plan is to institute the strict regime of distancing only to reduce the tidal impact of cases hitting the nhs (i.e. severe cases requiring inpatient therapy/ palliation) rather than to prevent spread. They've clearly modeled that containment cannot work and we are all going to get it eventually.

 

[SpookyFrank]

A glimpse of what is actually planned:

Love to know what they think people can do to prepare for that.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

That is exactly the strategy, yes. Their plan is to institute the strict regime of distancing only to reduce the tidal impact of cases hitting the nhs (i.e. severe cases requiring inpatient therapy/ palliation) rather than to prevent spread. They've clearly modeled that containment cannot work and we are all going to get it eventually.

It can’t be contained. Post above yours, by Lord Camomile sums it up. My mother in law has locked herself away for two weeks now, she’s gonna get bored of it soon enough though, or may even think, ‘Why am I trying to prolong my life if it must be a life of isolation?’

There clearly are no easy answers, but all this shutting everything down which is happening across Europe and the US can only go on for so long, people will get bored, but before that they must eat, and pay their rent and so on. Isolation will see the numbers dip, but as people come out the numbers will rise again.

I think I am kind of agreeing with government policy

But a plus is Johnson’s premiership is fucked. It’s built on his hardcore getting Brexit done, but no one gives a fuck anymore and he’s tasked with dealing with something really serious that is out of human control. Cunt looks rough as fuck right now.

 

[agricola]

Am I missing something here? So many people stating that we need to wait for a vaccine as herd immunity won’t work. Isn’t a vaccine just a low dose of the virus which then builds immunity? But as there isn’t one and won’t be one for ages, far too long to have people self isolating, the only way is to let the least vulnerable get it and hope that the most vulnerable can be kept away from it until most people are immune and hope there is the capacity to treat as best they can those most affected by it?

What you are missing is Dan Hodges, Toby Young or one of the others writing exclusively in the Mail tomorrow to tell you that after the Black Death struck, everyone left alive had immunity to it. The greatest victory in English history then followed!

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

What you are missing is Dan Hodges, Toby Young or one of the others writing exclusively in the Mail tomorrow to tell you that after the Black Death struck, everyone left alive had immunity to it. The greatest victory in English history then followed!

Not sure what you are getting at, have no idea who those people are?

 

[Shechemite]

That is exactly the strategy, yes. Their plan is to institute the strict regime of distancing only to reduce the tidal impact of cases hitting the nhs (i.e. severe cases requiring inpatient therapy/ palliation) rather than to prevent spread. They've clearly modeled that containment cannot work and we are all going to get it eventually.

it goes against a lot of what I believe in about care (I detest the ‘recovery approach’), but ‘encouraging personal responsibility’ (which isn’t this context cannot just be shouting at service users to stop self harming, and must include supporting those with severe cognitive/mood/communication difficulties to process and remember what they need to do) is going to need to be done.

we are going to need to have people recognising that there are things that they need to and should do, and to develop and implement public health communication for those who need that information to be communicated in a way they they can process and understand and in a way that doesn’t cause anxiety and distress

sorry if that is garbled.

 

[Shechemite]

I mean I’ve completely mad now and am in full ‘your people need you @MadeInBedlam’ (intrusive thoughts are fun).

The OCD symptoms (ie if you don’t do x then awful things will happen to people) happens periodically, but I guess this time going onto war footing could actually be useful

 

[Shechemite]

A few people of us are going to create material/training for staff/servcie users (the aim being for there to be material that explains clearly, but that is also reassuring). Happy to be told if it’s a daft idea (now is really not the time to be precious about this stuff)

 

[agricola]

Not sure what you are getting at, have no idea who those people are?

I envy you

 

[treelover]

Some appalling comments on the Owen Jones article, poor deserve it basically, bad eating habits, obesity, drinking, smoking, some moving to eugenics

 

[sihhi]

That is exactly the strategy, yes. Their plan is to institute the strict regime of distancing only to reduce the tidal impact of cases hitting the nhs (i.e. severe cases requiring inpatient therapy/ palliation) rather than to prevent spread. They've clearly modeled that containment cannot work and we are all going to get it eventually.

It's against all WHO advice, it's hellish.

 

[IC3D]

I think the plan might be lockdown when the hospitals are full and hope for the best.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I envy you

As any right thinking person would

 

[sheothebudworths]

That is exactly the strategy, yes. Their plan is to institute the strict regime of distancing only to reduce the tidal impact of cases hitting the nhs (i.e. severe cases requiring inpatient therapy/ palliation) rather than to prevent spread. They've clearly modeled that containment cannot work and we are all going to get it eventually.

In effect then, the herd immunity (vs waiting for a vaccine stuff) is really not the issue?
It IS solely down to 'the curve' and when you choose lock down, so as not to overwhelm health services?
(That makes sense, obviously, but also doesn't, re the '4 weeks behind Italy' stuff, cos we're clearly not.)

So is it balancing a wider spread, more quickly, against the hope that some immunity, however short-lived, buys that extra time, instead of locking down earlier?

I'm sorry to ask you questions - you must be knackered and you don't need to answer - but I'm way more interested in what you, and our other NHS workers here, feel is right, than the confusing messages coming from the gov.

 

[Orang Utan]

Some appalling comments on the Owen Jones article, poor deserve it basically, bad eating habits, obesity, drinking, smoking, some moving to eugenics

do yourself a favour and don't read the comments.

 

[Steel Icarus]

do yourself a favour and don't read the comments.

Pretty much applies to anything

 

[Orang Utan]

Pretty much applies to anything

true enough
I can't resist other shit, but if I read the comments I would go round the bend even more

 

[Jeremiah18.17]

Govt and advisers they are hiding behind now coming under attack from academics and professionals in relevant fields on both herd immunity strategy ( which they now appear to be backing off from and blaming on Vallances “bad messaging” - though the proposed “law to force schools to stay open” is a bit of a tell that this was not just about messaging - school openings and closing appear to be envisaged as a tap to reduce and increase community spread) and also their (ab)use of behavioural theory to justify delaying advice on social distancing and closures.
Coronavirus: Scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

Coronavirus: Some scientists say UK virus strategy is 'risking lives'

More than 200 scientists write to the government calling for tougher measures to tackle Covid-19.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[kropotkin]

In effect then, the herd immunity (vs waiting for a vaccine stuff) is really not the issue?
It IS solely down to 'the curve' and when you choose lock down, so as not to overwhelm health services?
(That makes sense, obviously, but also doesn't, re the '4 weeks behind Italy' stuff, cos we're clearly not.)

So is it balancing a wider spread, more quickly, against the hope that some immunity, however short-lived, buys that extra time, instead of locking down earlier?

I'm sorry to ask you questions - you must be knackered and you don't need to answer - but I'm way more interested in what you, and our other NHS workers here, feel is right, than the confusing messages coming from the gov.

Well, I have to say i'm not a public health specialist or an epidemiologist. I'm a clinician- that is my speciality.
I have to trust that my colleagues doing other things know what they are doing.
So, I'm guessing here a lot, but my interpretation is that the hope for a degree of spreading post-infective immunity (and thus a smaller pool of people passing on the virus) is part of the plan, but that the mainstay is to only use the social distancing measures as a way of restricting the flow of sick into the health system.

 

[weltweit]

Interesting, a letter from UK scientists saying do more do it sooner etc

 

[sheothebudworths]

Well, I have to say i'm not a public health specialist or an epidemiologist. I'm a clinician- that is my speciality.
I have to trust that my colleagues doing other things know what they are doing.
So, I'm guessing here a lot, but my interpretation is that the hope for a degree of spreading post-infective immunity (and thus a smaller pool of people passing on the virus) is part of the plan, but that the mainstay is to only use the social distancing measures as a way of restricting the flow of sick into the health system.

Yes, of course.
As an individual with absolutely no medical knowledge, I sort of cycle back again as to when that right time comes etc, then - but that's got to be getting very old for you and I really, really appreciate your reply, while you're just working through this.
I don't suppose that helps and it must be very hard for you all, even harder that normal (and even more difficult while you're also dealing with armchair knobheads like me looking for details that you really don't have time to think about and/or provide).
Thank you for the work that you do.

 

[kropotkin]

Thanks, but we aren't superheroes, we're just trained to do this particular job. It's a great job, and I for one wouldn't do anything else for a living.
Right now everything is as normal, but there is a growing pervasive anxiety. I'm impatient for it to start so we can just get on with it. We can only do what we can do

 

[Red Cat]

Well, I have to say i'm not a public health specialist or an epidemiologist. I'm a clinician- that is my speciality.
I have to trust that my colleagues doing other things know what they are doing.

That's my position too.

I'm a mental health clinician, in which I have some expertise. irl, I'm trusted with this, and I have a responsibility to use my experience, my training and my skills as well as I can. I too feel I have to trust that others know what they're doing, as much as is possible.

eta i know this is very different to medicine but more about knowing the limits of your specialism

 

[two sheds]

Grrrrr I went out and bought some ibuprofen on Thursday because of something I read on urban

Anti-inflammatories may aggravate Covid-19, France advises

French minister says patients should take paracetamol rather than ibuprofen or cortisone

www.theguardian.com

 

[elbows]

Grrrrr I went out and bought some ibuprofen on Thursday because of something I read on urban

Anti-inflammatories may aggravate Covid-19, France advises

French minister says patients should take paracetamol rather than ibuprofen or cortisone

www.theguardian.com

Although the explanations offered by France so far are somewhat generalised, anyone here is who familiar with the whole ACE2 thing with this coronavirus probably wont need to do much research in order to pick up on one possible reasoning behind the concern over Ibuprofen.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Thanks, but we aren't superheroes, we're just trained to do this particular job. It's a great job, and I for one wouldn't do anything else for a living.
Right now everything is as normal, but there is a growing pervasive anxiety. I'm impatient for it to start so we can just get on with it. We can only do what we can do

I did think quite hard about that post. I can quite imagine that it's not normal, or helpful, to have an influx of gushing responses to you doing your every day job, particularly when it's a profession you've chosen (as opposed to a job you just find yourself doing/have to do through circumstance) but where I recognise the training you might put yourself through, or the long hours.
Fwiw, I try quite hard to value my own role, the impact I can have (cos I can) and the part it plays in our society.
I think all of our roles have already changed/will likely change and/or continue to change - and that we will just make those shifts forwards (because what else do you do) - but I still decided to post it because I AM appreciative of the additional work (whether that's pratical, or emotional) that others might take on. I am grateful and I know the NHS has only continued to operate because of it's staff.

I'm not going to stop thinking of you all, while I do my bit, too and I'm trying very hard not to be over the top, I promise, but y'know, suck that praise up - cos you deserve it.

 

[two sheds]

Although the explanations offered by France so far are somewhat generalised, anyone here is who familiar with the whole ACE2 thing with this coronavirus probably wont need to do much research in order to pick up on one possible reasoning behind the concern over Ibuprofen.

I also get asthma which means I should be careful about taking ibuprofen. I usually take lemsip if I have a cold which works really well - that's got paracatemol so fewer problems.

 

[redsquirrel]

It’s an excuse. Look at the extensive criticisms from experts in their field. The BBC is doing its best to spin it but Boris and Cummings are not fit for managing this.

Sorry what is an excuse? The fact that there is criticism of the approach the UK gov is following does not indicate that the approach is not based on science. That's how science works - on any subject where there are so many unknowns there is going to be strongly contested alternative positions. And of course here where scientific decisions are inevitably political there is going to be more disagreement.

I don't have the knowledge or background to comment on when or how it is best to move to a lockdown and I'm highly critical of the - just listen to the experts - line. The response society makes will be political and so people should have a say in how such a response.
But equally to say that the CMO and CSO and all the people working under them are just developing scientific excuses for Johnson/Cummings is no more helpful. This is very much a state (and capital) response.

 

[Part-timah]

Sorry what is an excuse? The fact that there is criticism of the approach the UK gov is following does not indicate that the approach is not based on science. That's how science works - on any subject where there are so many unknowns there is going to be strongly contested alternative positions. And of course here where scientific decisions are inevitably political there is going to be more disagreement.

I don't have the knowledge or background to comment on when or how it is best to move to a lockdown and I'm highly critical of the - just listen to the experts - line. The response society makes will be political and so people should have a say in how such a response.
But equally to say that the CMO and CSO and all the people working under them are just developing scientific excuses for Johnson/Cummings is no more helpful. This is very much a state (and capital) response.

The gov scientists would have presented options. Boris and Cummings have made their choice. This choice is criticised by many experts including the fucking WHO. You know loony, tinfoil mentalist at that org.

Are you aware of what scum those pair are? You know Boris idealises the mayor in Jaws?

 

[platinumsage]

Interesting, a letter from UK scientists saying do more do it sooner etc

I suggest checking who the letter is from. Turns out "229 scientists" is a bunch of random mathematicians and students. There's even a glaciology teaching fellow in there. I am very surprised the BBC lent it such weight. It seems none of these scientists have done any science related to the things they are criticising.