Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Depends on mutation rates. Any acquired immunity is only good for as long as it's more or less the same virus going round that you've already fought off. Also it's not just a question of live or die, some people who survive will have permanent respiratory damage that will make them more vlunerable in future.

Sadly that may not even be the biggest factor when it comes to human immune systems and coronaviruses. I am still not happy with the amount of study of other coronaviruses that was done in normal times, but it appears human immunity to coronaviruses isnt that good, it seems to fade even if the virus hasnt changed in a big way. There will always be small changes to viruses, but coronaviruses dont mutate as quickly as influenza ones because they have a duplication error correction system (which isnt perfect but does reduce the mutation rate). So its a big shame that there seem to be other reasons human immune systems cant maintain immunity against coronaviruses for long periods.

 

[elbows]

Yeah, as I've said before any talk of figures comes with huge caveats but we're going to be talking huge numbers, and if the gov are waiting for this peak before closing the country it's going to be ages isn't it? Potential for a lot more vulnerable people to get it. I reckon we could manage six months of shutdown given the right mindset. But it's almost "deal with it"

In addition to whatever mistakes they have made with policy and assumptions and modelling, I'm pretty sure they fucked up the communication on this point. It might have gone better if the graph slideshow hadnt broken at the last press conference.

None of the stuff about pressing down and flattening/stretching out the epidemic curve works if you wait till the top of the peak before you do anything. There is no way even this government were claiming that. The point they were trying to make is that they were planning to wait until they were at the point where the curve was really taking off. Thats why some of the detail they were getting into wasnt single dates, it was ranges, periods, either side of the very peak. The language I would have used would be to impose the most stringent measures once the first epidemic wave was underway, and I would set some threshold for defining that moment.

 

[planetgeli]

last time i looked the number of tests carried out was less than 1000

945 with 60 positives

 

[Red Cat]

Of course behavioural science is going to be part of infection control amongst a large population.

 

[muscovyduck]

So how do we speed up the shutdown (if that’s we need to do)

If you can, do the following:

Call in sick to work, even if you're not

Slow down work as much as possible on health and safety grounds, eg refuse to take short cuts with hand washing, cleaning of environment/objects etc

Refuse overtime/cover work

Push back against complacency -refuse to engage in conversations about how it's a hoax or an over reaction, if someone is coughing at you ask them not to

Stop giving your custom to non-essential services, eg bars and cafes. Yes, even the independent ones. Small business doesn't mean ethical business.

Act calm and rational as you go about this, do not give the fuckers amunition to call you a drama queen etc. Be wary of people looking for arguments, pick your battles

Show solidarity with your colleagues if they are fighting similar battles

Help people in the community research laws and guidance, eg online or access legal advice

 

[redsquirrel]

I think the drive to attribute every vainglorious or opaque decision by the government to Dominic Cummings is a mistake tbh.

Yes.

There seems to have been a move from "trust the experts" to "Cummings/Johnson dastardly plans" neither view is helpful or accurate. The UK government does seem to be pursuing a different strategy to other countries but science no more said that the UK approach was right on Thursday than it says it is wrong today.

It adds that Boris is callous and that the choices he makes are not necessarily grounded in science.

There quite clearly is a scientific argument behind the governments actions. Whether it is the "right" one or not who knows but this sort of simplistic view of science and individualised politics does not provide any understanding.

 

[Fez909]

Yes, even the independent ones. Small business doesn't mean ethical business.

Lots of bars and clubs on Instagram are rightly nervous about this, and saying how they've put safety procedures in place etc.

Of course, they can't, and it's going to affect a lot of great places to go out. Sad, but I don't see what consumers can or should do to help.

It should be the government stepping in to suspend business rates, force landlords to put in measures to prevent evictions etc.

 

[agricola]

Some rise in cases in Swansea overnight (Wales gives its figures in the mornings). Swansea University rumoured to be closing. My partner, who works at UWTSD, had to detail work from home arrangements yesterday.

Aberystwyth is self isolating as well (and has been since 1900).

 

[redsquirrel]

Call in sick to work, even if you're not
......
Stop giving your custom to non-essential services, eg bars and cafes. Yes, even the independent ones. Small business doesn't mean ethical business.

How long are you going to do this for? How long should people not go to cafes/pubs? 2 months? 6 months? A year?
And what if you call in sick to work now only to find you've used up all your sick pay when you need it later in the year?

 

[muscovyduck]

How long are you going to do this for? How long should people not go to cafes/pubs? 2 months? 6 months? A year?
And what if you call in sick to work now only to find you've used up all your sick pay when you need it later in the year?

If you can, do the following:

 

[redsquirrel]

.

I'm skeptical that telling people not to use "non-essential" services is helpful, it may even be harmful, isolating people even more.

 

[Shechemite]

Wasnt going to post this bit it is very worrying, it is in manageralise, but its a reply to a request on how disabled and sick people(DASP) will cope in a pandemic, was meant to be about those on direct payments, but reply is about care homes I think, but basically saying
lower levels of outbreak would be managed by the care company in the same way as any other bout of illness or significant staff shortages, and if it gets worse than this, there is a city-wide group who plan for these eventualities. They seem confident that these plans would cover it.

I don't think their plans will, many disabled and sick people can't even get care or carers at present, what happens when their carers, if they ahve any, get sick.

thanks

 

[muscovyduck]

I'm skeptical that telling people not to use "non-essential" services is helpful, it may even be harmful, isolating people even more.

Question I was replying to is how we get everything shut down as quick as possible, I appreciate there's nuances regarding whether that's actually a good idea or not

 

[andysays]

10 more deaths in one 24 hour period, almost doubling the total.

 

[Shechemite]

Of course behavioural science is going to be part of infection control amongst a large population.

True

 

[Shechemite]

Question I was replying to is how we get everything shut down as quick as possible, I appreciate there's nuances regarding whether that's actually a good idea or not

exactly.

if we want a shutdown we accept it will be brutal to do so

if we don’t want a shutdown we accept it will be brutal not to do so.

 

[SpookyFrank]

How long are you going to do this for? How long should people not go to cafes/pubs? 2 months? 6 months? A year?
And what if you call in sick to work now only to find you've used up all your sick pay when you need it later in the year?

Or you realise you need to get paid in oder to have food and stuff.

 

[Callie]

"As of 9am on 14 March 2020, 37,746 people have been tested in the UK, of which 36,606 were confirmed negative and 1,140 were confirmed as positive. 21 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died. "

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

www.gov.uk

 

[quimcunx]

I've been multiplying by 1.3 last few days that's a jump of more than 1.4. More testing? Or escalation?

 

[SpookyFrank]

"As of 9am on 14 March 2020, 37,746 people have been tested in the UK, of which 36,606 were confirmed negative and 1,140 were confirmed as positive. 21 patients who tested positive for COVID-19 have died. "

UKHSA data dashboard

Showing public health data across England

www.gov.uk

Fag packet maths says we're likely to be at 12,000 cases a week from now, assuming testing can keep up.

 

[Fez909]

I've been multiplying by 1.3 last few days that's a jump of more than 1.4. More testing? Or escalation?

Way more testing.



From here:

 

[Callie]

I've been multiplying by 1.3 last few days that's a jump of more than 1.4. More testing? Or escalation?

Testing has increased 24960 on monday, 26261 (+1301) , 27476 (+1215), 29764 (+2288), 32771 (+3007), 37746 (+4975). I dunno how to review those figures in terms of increase in cases per number of tests (?percentage pos vs tested?). Everyone wants their results yesterday and some tit has told people it only takes 24 hours so I have been explaining to people why they will not have their result in 24 hours most of this morning.

 

[Callie]

Also the number of tests may not be the true picture - while testing moves away from the centralised public health labs and more labs can perform the test the more difficult it is to keep track - positives are reported urgently to public health but actual test numbers and negatives not so much (labs don't have the facility/resource to quick zap this sort of thing to anyone that wants it).

 

[Steel Icarus]

42.8% rise

 

[extra dry]

Germany is close behind with the third oldest population in the world but with over 1100 cases and no deaths yet.

Genitics?

 

[elbows]

Genitics?

Germany, like the UK, is entering a crucial period where the number of deaths is expected to start increasing quite rapidly. Its started happening as expected, but its still a little soon to demonstrate with a series of numbers. Unfortunately Spain and to a slightly lesser extent France are a bit further ahead of Germany and the UK.

Number of UK deaths and rate of increase so far is roughly consistent with us being about 2 weeks behind Italy. I have not looked at other countries numbers for today yet, but no real reason to expect any divergence from the expected trends

 

[extra dry]

Germany, like the UK, is entering a crucial period where the number of deaths is expected to start increasing quite rapidly. Its started happening as expected, but its still a little soon to demonstrate with a series of numbers. Unfortunately Spain and to a slightly lesser extent France are a bit further ahead of Germany and the UK.

Number of UK deaths and rate of increase so far is roughly consistent with us being about 2 weeks behind Italy. I have not looked at other countries numbers for today yet, but no real reason to expect any divergence from the expected trends

Right, I do keep up with current events, around 5% death rate which is horrific for all. Communities are going to need all the help they can.

Good luck everyone.

 

[bellaozzydog]

Eton and Harrow closed, who would have thunk it

 

[SpookyFrank]

Eton and Harrow closed, who would have thunk it

Meanwhile state schools are apparently going to be forced to remain open on penalty of legal action. I don't even need to bother adding the bit about one rule for them do I?

 

[Orang Utan]

There's probably cultural reasons why it's spreading more in some countries than others. More so in countries that kiss each other's cheeks when greeting, less so in more formal and/or fastidious countries.