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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

killer b said:
This thread speculating on the government's strategy is interesting (it is speculation, but looks like he's got it about right to me)

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"Kids generally won’t get very ill, so the govt can use them as a tool to infect others when you want to increase infection. When you need to slow infection, that tap can be turned off – at that point they close the schools. "

sorry but this is utter bollocks.
 
I don't understand the figure of 60% for herd immunity. If there are 4 out of 10 people with the virus and one of those 4 coughs on you then you're buggered.
 
all this herd immunity shit is completely irresponsible nonsense. it's shocking. there is no proof at all that those who recover from having covid-19 develop immunity. i cannot believe people are swallowing this dangerous, inhuman, criminal shit from the tories. they are literally saying they are ok with killing half a million people, maybe more. it's unbelievable.
 
killer b said:
This thread speculating on the government's strategy is interesting (it is speculation, but looks like he's got it about right to me)

Click to expand...

One thing you'd think they'd need for that strategy would be accurate figures on infections and the patterns of transmission. But they don't seem keen on getting that information. And as he says, 'a key issue during this process is protection of those for whom the virus is fatal. It's not clear the full measures there are to protect those people. It assumes they can measure infection, that their behavioural expectations are met - people do what they think they will'. No emergency hospitals/intensive care units being built afaik. Similarly, the government's strategy so far has almost been to ensure it gets into care homes and the like.
 
MrSki said:
Has there ever been a virus where herd immunity has naturally occurred to remove the threat without there being a vaccine? Surely it only works with vaccination?
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Aren’t there quite a few diseases that you only have once and after that have an immunity to? Like chicken pox (though I’m aware that a few people do get it again)
 
killer b said:
This thread speculating on the government's strategy is interesting (it is speculation, but looks like he's got it about right to me)

Click to expand...


Problem is it relies on some huge assumptions... Big ones would be:

  • Outcomes in healthy/young people. 60% of the UK population is around 40m people... That is one fuck of a lot of risk.
  • Necessity of isolating at risk population. We will absolutely be fucking bad at doing this.
 
The whole approach seems strange to me - I'd have thought you'd want as few people to get it as possible so as not to overload the NHS, until a vaccine/treatment is developed.

Jeremy Hardy's image does keep coming to mind though that Johnson, affable buffoon that he seems to be, would be quite happy herding people into rugby stadiums and machine gunning them. Just the old and infirm though :thumbs:
 
treelover said:
These mutual aid groups look promising, not just the usual suspects, shop owners, self employed, all sorts really

however, they seem focused on when vunerable people are self isolating, not preparing, stock piling, etc

local labour parties don't seem to be doing anything.
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I'm in a neighbourhood/ward mutual aid group, and the Newcastle one. Both are less than than 10 hours old! At the moment the focus is on leafleting local houses and flats/contacting through social media people in the area who may want to join or think they may need help at some point. Labour party councillors are in the neighbourhood group. There is a call-out is for donations to a local foodbank - and community centres which get food donations to give away are encouraging people to ask neighbours if they want items picked up. More organised preparations could happen, or individuals may ask for help with shopping now (even if they are not symptomatic or officially isolating) - but we have only been going for a few hours, so its up to whats needed/what people feel they can do.
 
thats great, i am likely to be needing the one in my area very soon

Btw, looks promising is what is says, it has great potential, but other things have collapsed and people left out, i have documented it on here as have others, some nasty crap on here at times.
 
Well whatever the government were trying to do with their strategy, I dont think lots of newspapers declaring that Johnson has had to u-turn already was part of the plan.

Still, this needs to be just the first u-turn of many in order to deal with the full range of complaints about their approach.

Mind you, I still dont think this weeks NHS reconfiguration and preparations are very indicative of a government that really thinks we are 4 weeks behind Italy. I still watch the data nervously for signs, and I suppose they may yet try to qualify their 4 weeks remarks differently to how they let them be interpreted at the last press conference.
 
MrSki said:
Has there ever been a virus where herd immunity has naturally occurred to remove the threat without there being a vaccine? Surely it only works with vaccination?
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Herd immunity can build up naturally, and I am under the impression that the phenomenon was recognised before mass vaccination was much of a thing. Whether that particular name for it was used at the time I dont know.

Epidemics are linked to levels of immunity within communities. Whether this immunity was acquired via vaccination or via catching the illness doesnt matter so much to the underlying theory. If we look at some illnesses that we dont vaccinate against, such as the other coronaviruses which cause a portion of the seasonal colds humans experience, there are often some quiet years where there are far less infections, interspersed with years where lots of people get infected. This probably relates to immunity levels within the communities in question. Levels of immunity within the population builds up when there is widespread infection, but with those coronaviruses our immunity starts to wane after a while, so eventually overall immunity within a population falls below the level required for herd immunity to have a strong effect, and the virus will have a chance to have a busy season again. Then the cycle can repeat. Nobody actually knows for sure if the same sort of thing will happen with this new coronavirus.
 
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MrSki said:
Yes but chicken pox is still around. Herd immunity has not worked for that.
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I don't think that they are claiming that herd immunity will eliminate the virus, but that it will dampen it's severity. I thought they were expecting covid to become a seasonal infection. Look at the effects diseases like measles, flu, chicken pox and smallpox had on native Americans (killed around 90%), compared to Europe, where they may have killed many but didn't eradicate most of the population. In that sense, herd immunity 'worked'.
 
Re our gov's strategy i think it might be a bit like this:
There is no way for them to 'win' with this - if they were to go all out right now (close and cancel everything) and that works and so there isn't a disaster, people will think it was a pointless overreaction (see YK2) and resent it. If it doesn't work and people still die, so that everyone will still at least know someone who gets sick and probably a large proportion of us will still get sick all at the same time then thats even worse for the gov.
What I think they are probably trying to do (aside from prevent nhs being absolutely obviously overwhelmed if they can) is keep the impression that there is a plan unfolding and that they have a series of measures kept in reserve to employ one after the other and thereby keep a semblance of control which people may find reassuring, instead of 'using up' all the tools in the box now and then just having to stand there with nothing left to announce apart from frightening statistics.
If they were left like that at this early stage they'd have already lost everyones trust completely. Which would be properly dangerous for them not just politically but also law and order-wise, if thats not too alarmist.
Another bit that I think must be part of their thinking is bloody brexit. They were elected on that promise to Get It Done, and have said just yesterday that they do not intend to delay. Seems mad to me but it will be a factor - if they flatten that curve too much, this thing could roll on into next spring with their voters busy worrying about the virus and their sick relatives etc, which would be a disaster for Johnson and co.
 
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bimble said:
👆paywall can you c&p?
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Here you go

Police will be able to detain infected people and schools could be forced to stay open under a package of powers being announced next week to tackle the coronavirus pandemic.

Emergency laws to help to limit the spread of the virus will be introduced after the number of people infected in Britain rose by 200 in 24 hours to 798. The measures, seen by The Times, will also let councils lower standards in care homes to deal with staff shortages.

The legislation, which ministers intend to push through parliament in two weeks, will equip the government to deal with the disease. Ministers believe that the virus will infect the majority of the population, and the laws will stay in place for two years.



The government will be given the power to halt “any vehicle, train, vessel or aircraft”. Ministers will be able to close ports if there are “insufficient resources” to retain border security through customs and immigration officers falling sick.


There are further measures to speed up cremations and burials. “In a reasonable worst-case scenario the death management industry will be rapidly overwhelmed,” the government said in a draft. “There is a significant gap in body storage requirements to ensure we are prepared for the reasonable worst-case scenario.”

Next week Boris Johnson will follow Scotland and Ireland by banning gatherings of more than 500 people, including football matches, concerts and festivals.
The move came less than 24 hours after the prime minister rejected the proposals. They are designed to reduce pressure on the health service and the police as the pandemic reaches its peak, rather than to slow Covid-19’s spread.

The emergency laws will enable police and immigration officers to detain people “for a limited period” if there are concerns that they could be infected. The government will have the power to direct schools and nurseries to stay open if they are closed unnecessarily by teachers and staff and to close them as the pandemic peaks. The care given to the elderly could also be stripped back. Local authorities will be able to offer reduced levels of care to people in their homes or in care homes as long as it does not lead to “serious neglect or harm”.
It could mean that people receive support with washing and cooking once a day rather than twice. The move is intended to protect local authorities from legal challenge for failing to fulfil their statutory duties.
The government stopped short of banning care home visitors despite concerns that there could be high fatality levels if elderly people caught the virus. Official estimates are that one in 12 people over 80 who catch the virus will die.


Next week’s legislation allows the government to relax registration requirements for doctors, social workers and pharmacists to enable those who have recently retired to return to the health service. Care workers who have almost finished their qualifications will also be allowed to register.
Doctors will be able to provide a medical certificate detailing the cause of death without seeing the body of the deceased. Senior health professionals other than doctors will be allowed to sign off death certificates, and the requirement for coroners to hold jury inquests will be lifted. Ministers will relax the terms of the Mental Health Act to require fewer doctors in clinics so they can be diverted to help hospitals.
The government has not declared an effective “state of emergency” by enacting powers under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, which would enable ministers to force through legal changes without parliamentary approval.
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bimble said:
Re our gov's strategy i think it might be a bit like this:
There is no way for them to 'win' with this - if they were to go all out right now (close and cancel everything) and that works and so there isn't a disaster, people will think it was a pointless overreaction (see YK2) and resent it. If it doesn't work and people still die, so that everyone will still at least know someone who gets sick and probably a large proportion of us will still get sick all at the same time then thats even worse for the gov.
What I think they are probably trying to do (aside from prevent nhs being absolutely obviously overwhelmed if they can) is keep the impression that there is a plan unfolding and that they have a series of measures kept in reserve to employ one after the other and thereby keep a semblance of control which people may find reassuring, instead of 'using up' all the tools in the box now and then just having to stand there with nothing left to announce apart from frightening statistics.
If they were left like that at this early stage they'd have already lost everyones trust completely. Which would be properly dangerous for them not just politically but also law and order-wise, if thats not too alarmist.
Another bit that I think must be part of their thinking is bloody brexit. They were elected on that promise to Get It Done, and have said just yesterday that they do not intend to delay. Seems mad to me but it will be a factor - if they flatten that curve too much, this thing could roll on into next spring with their voters busy worrying about the virus and their sick relatives etc, which would be a disaster for Johnson and co.
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Tbh, it seems to me that the uks government approach is a combination of snmart arseness based on some very risjy assumptions about 'herd immunity' whilst trying to wing it. Im shocked at the lack of clear planning or advice. They are likely to be caught out by events. I cant see their plan surviving the (inevitable) big rise in cases and fatalities over the next few weeks.
 
MadeInBedlam said:
top doctors keeping off the trains View attachment 201620
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I don't understand this.
Healthcare professionals are the most at - risk group in society in terms of probability of catching the virus. Not necessarily in terms of mortality (although I know of at least two itu doctors currently ventilated in Italy) but in terms of getting infected. The patients in the community with the highest viral load-the sickest people - come to doctors. Those of us (and nurses, HCAs etc) in the hospital environment may as well not do anything to reduce our risk of getting it if we are going to continue working (I am fully committed to working through this).
Our risk is to others, and that's the only reason I see to take any social distancing measures
 
The forcing schools to stay open thing, even if there's legislation passed there's no way it will be enforceable. Are the police going to go door to door rounding up kids and dragging them in? Are headteachers going to be taken to court, and prosecutors argue that some fag-packet law is more important than upholding a duty of care?

This does all suggest that someone has calculated how long a full lockdown can be sustained, come up with a pretty small number (I'd guess four weeks) and then realised that if they start too early they'll have to lift the lockdown at the worst possible time.
 
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