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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Fez909 said:
What I do wonder though is they might still be right, and it could be that their model says there's no way to avoid all the deaths, or even flatten the curve enough to make a difference, so short sharp shock is actually the 'best' outcome. As we all [should] know, scientific modelling is not a politics-free zone. If your model weights the economy as equal to human cost, well...

I think we're going in hard on purpose, despite what they're claiming.
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But they told us that the main reason to flatten the peak was to allow NHS capacity to cope. So they have set themselves up to be judged a failure very rapidly if they intend to let infections surge ahead!

The stuff you keep talking about in regards to knowing soon if their numbers are right: the main one to check after the fact is the excess deaths. We know it's variable how many die, depending on how overwhelmed the health service is (the height of the peak and the duration of epidemic over the health service's capability). They're claiming 1% now.
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Initially I will just focus on the 4 weeks claim, I wont wait for the full dataset to become apparent. Either number of cases, or, if the change in testing regime scuppers that, I'll just look at the increasing rate of reported deaths and evidence of hospitals being overwhelmed as a sign we are 'now like Italy'.

Anyway, the ECDC documents. Problem is once I've just read one it contains so much info that I dont know where to start in regards talking about it here. Please take a look. I will come back in a bit with a couple of highlights.

 
My son arrived home a little while ago to see an ambulance outside our door - very panicked. They brought out a neighbour two doors down who was coughing a lot.
My daughter is asleep at the moment - she's had daily headaches and some heart fluttery stuff (which she's had before - locum suggested eating less chocolate).
I'm fairly sure that she is having tension headaches and some subconcious worry - although she insists she's not panicking (or that, if she is, it's about some other, understandable, unrelated housing etc issues) - but I have held off from making a GP appointment.
It's very small stuff, comparatively (I have done some 5,4,3,2,1 grounding exercises with her and we've sat in my bed watching some easy going programmes etc and I will keep an eye) but it's another consequence, I think, of a lack of direction.
Do you proceed as you normally would, or should you be really mindful of the fact that you're not in normal days, iykwim, and use instinct above what you imagine will be standard advice, so as to avoid hogging the system?
I've found it difficult to balance that with making her feel I am doing shit, too.
I do also get the usefulness that schools have in providing some of that calmness and care, too and I don't mean to be all about the schools, or the kids (I'm still way more worried about their capacity to silently pass it on) just how that branches out through society.
 
sheothebudworths said:
My son arrived home a little while ago to see an ambulance outside our door - very panicked. They brought out a neighbour two doors down who was coughing a lot.
My daughter is asleep at the moment - she's had daily headaches and some heart fluttery stuff (which she's had before - locum suggested eating less chocolate).
I'm fairly sure that she is having tension headaches and some subconcious worry - although she insists she's not panicking (or that, if she is, it's about some other, understandable, unrelated housing etc issues) - but I have held off from making a GP appointment.
It's very small stuff, comparatively (I have done some 5,4,3,2,1 grounding exercises with her and we've sat in my bed watching some easy going programmes etc and I will keep an eye) but it's another consequence, I think, of a lack of direction.
Do you proceed as you normally would, or should you be really mindful of the fact that you're not in normal days, iykwim, and use instinct above what you imagine will be standard advice, so as to avoid hogging the system?
I've found it difficult to balance that with making her feel I am doing shit, too.
I do also get the usefulness that schools have in providing some of that calmness and care, too and I don't mean to be all about the schools, or the kids (I'm still way more worried about their capacity to silently pass it on) just how that branches out through society.
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I'm struggling with this atm. I have a clubnight booked next week (I'm running it) that I want to cancel, but everyone else thinks should go ahead.

I think they think I'm over-reacting, but I'm worried at their lack of concern.

It's hard to know what to do, and even though I've been 'nerding' out on this story since January, I still don't have a clue what the right thing is.

Carrying on as before does not feel right to me, though.
 
Fez909 said:
I'm struggling with this atm. I have a clubnight booked next week (I'm running it) that I want to cancel, but everyone else thinks should go ahead.

I think they think I'm over-reacting, but I'm worried at their lack of concern.

It's hard to know what to do, and even though I've been 'nerding' out on this story since January, I still don't have a clue what the right thing is.

Carrying on as before does not feel right to me, though.
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Me too. Wish I could get my dad to take it seriously but he went to the gym this morning. He's been coughing this evening :rolleyes:
Suppose I might as well go back to work on Monday - what's the point of self quarantining if he's not?
 
Herd immunity seems to be crucial, well...

Herd immunity only works if most people in the population are vaccinated (for example, 19 out of every 20 people need to be vaccinated against measles to protect people who are not vaccinated). If people are not vaccinated, herd immunity is not guaranteed to protect them.

A quote from this...https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/herd-immunity
 
Fez909 said:
I'm struggling with this atm. I have a clubnight booked next week (I'm running it) that I want to cancel, but everyone else thinks should go ahead.

I think they think I'm over-reacting, but I'm worried at their lack of concern.

It's hard to know what to do, and even though I've been 'nerding' out on this story since January, I still don't have a clue what the right thing is.

Carrying on as before does not feel right to me, though.
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I get it.
It gets tricky judging your own sense of responsibility, against the expectations of others (for fun, for work, because you have no choice financially and because of the impact on others health, ultimately).
 
What this article explains is probably driving some of the decision making, trying to buy us a few weeks

www.theguardian.com

'Unlike anything seen in peacetime': NHS prepares for surge in Covid-19 cases

Hospitals cancel non-urgent operations in unprecedented shutdown of normal activity
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

I do also see the argument about immunity. Its a calculated risk that rests on the assumption that when the countries being hugely restrictive lift their restrictions it all kicks off again and the people you just protected die anyway.
 
Fez909 said:
I'm struggling with this atm. I have a clubnight booked next week (I'm running it) that I want to cancel, but everyone else thinks should go ahead.

I think they think I'm over-reacting, but I'm worried at their lack of concern.

It's hard to know what to do, and even though I've been 'nerding' out on this story since January, I still don't have a clue what the right thing is.

Carrying on as before does not feel right to me, though.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think this is partly what's frustrating me about the gov approach. There are arguments for their policies, aspects of them at least. But for their approach to work you need a high degree of fairly complex individual responsibility. One that will vary from person to person depending on their exposure to people who may be vulnerable (and of course sometimes they won't actually know). The advantage of the blanket measures that other countries are imposing is that they're pretty easy to understand, or actually force people to avoid situations where you might get a substantial and rapid outbreak (by banning events etc).

Point being that here there seems to be an expectation that people should just sort that out for themselves... But this is the UK, and we're shit at community cohesion and responsibility. And not very good at absorbing complex messages either... The general response among my friends is 'who gives a shit? just another cold'. And seeing that reflected more widely. I think most wouldn't bother self-isolating, and haven't really had clear messages to do so. I mean I know Johnson has said you should... but it's all couched in terms of 'we advise' and the like, and offset by the blase attitude of his advisors. I'm self-employed (as are most of my friends) so don't know how that's reflected in the wider work environment. But it does just seem weird that most seem to be doing business as usual.
 
Orang Utan said:
Me too. Wish I could get my dad to take it seriously but he went to the gym this morning. He's been coughing this evening :rolleyes:
Suppose I might as well go back to work on Monday - what's the point of self quarantining if he's not?
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I do think it's shit that we expect elderly people to just stay in and suck it up because they are most at risk, while kids quietly/easily carry it and spread it around and there is no movement to reduce that impact.
I KNOW I would be really fucked off about that, if I were him.
Do you think he would respond better to it being about him not passing it on, than he would about his own risk?
 
Cid said:
Yeah, I think this is partly what's frustrating me about the gov approach. There are arguments for their policies, aspects of them at least. But for their approach to work you need a high degree of fairly complex individual responsibility. One that will vary from person to person depending on their exposure to people who may be vulnerable (and of course sometimes they won't actually know). The advantage of the blanket measures that other countries are imposing is that they're pretty easy to understand, or actually force people to avoid situations where you might get a substantial and rapid outbreak (by banning events etc).

Point being that here there seems to be an expectation that people should just sort that out for themselves... But this is the UK, and we're shit at community cohesion and responsibility. And not very good at absorbing complex messages either... The general response among my friends is 'who gives a shit? just another cold'. And seeing that reflected more widely. I think most wouldn't bother self-isolating, and haven't really had clear messages to do so. I mean I know Johnson has said you should... but it's all couched in terms of 'we advise' and the like, and offset by the blase attitude of his advisors. I'm self-employed (as are most of my friends) so don't know how that's reflected in the wider work environment. But it does just seem weird that most seem to be doing business as usual.
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I think this is changing rapidly tbf. Last week, I think everything you say here was true. But this has escalated very quickly and anybody turning up at work with cold symptoms is going to get sent straight home and asked wtf are you doing. I think the social stigma of not self-isolating is taking a strong hold tbh.

Nothing to do with anything the govt has done, mind. I think most people are taking their lead from other sources and even other governments.
 
I've been wondering what my neighbours have been thinking.
I had ordinary flu 2 weeks ago and I don't mess around when I need to cough.
 
I do wonder how many of the ‘we are being given too much responsibility’ brigade would be happy if we went into lockdown.
 
littlebabyjesus said:
I think this is changing rapidly tbf. Last week, I think everything you say here was true. But this has escalated very quickly and anybody turning up at work with cold symptoms is going to get sent straight home and asked wtf are you doing. I think the social stigma of not self-isolating is taking a strong hold tbh.

Nothing to do with anything the govt has done, mind. I think most people are taking their lead from other sources and even other governments.
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This 100% would NOT be the case in the school kitchen I work in (where there are a huge number of disciplinaries taking place, throughout the school, which have already been dragged out for months, which look like money saving exercises to me). No WAY any of us would be comfortable to call in with cold symptoms and self-isolate for a week (and we're employed by the council and have good but overwhelmed, union representation).
 
These mutual aid groups look promising, not just the usual suspects, shop owners, self employed, all sorts really

however, they seem focused on when vunerable people are self isolating, not preparing, stock piling, etc

local labour parties don't seem to be doing anything.
 
Wilf said:
One consequence of this govt's approach is how the lack of central action plays out on the ground. I work at a university and it looked like yesterday we were seeing a sector wide shift towards closing down/moving things online. Found out today my institution are not closing and have had a series of email about continuing the 'business critical' aspects of the work (ffs). So, some universities have staff working from home but essentially self isolating, whereas we are trooping in... anxious about risks etc. Similarly, I got a phone call from my Mum's care home last night to say they were in lockdown, so no visitors. Then got another call today to say they are not. In such circumstances, how can you have the slightest bit of confidence that staff working there haven't got undiagnosed virus (they need the money and, hey, we ain't fucking testing anyway!). The woman who rang me said they were getting no advice. This really is a strategy of letting it play out/let it rip.
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Yes the big problem with this woolly approach is that workplaces will do the minimum the govt guidance allows. So at the minute me and my wife (different companies) are just being told... Don't worry, basically just carry on as normal but wash your hands more, don't come to work if you feel ill, normal sick policy applies.

Even though I and the team I'm in and many others are PERFECTLY CAPABLE of working from home, they're still not encouraging it because they don't have to according to the guidance. Apparently it wouldn't be "fair" to the people who can't work from home.

All they've done is say, don't take business trips that aren't necessary. No outside visitors unless it's necessary (in an office of 500, how much is that really going to reduce the risk?).
 
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