Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Am I right in assuming this is just the peeps who present to a hospital?

Announcement of ending of previous testing regime was only yesterday, so probably still catching up with tests ordered under that system, and I suspect there might be additional devil in the detail. Especially since its possible that part of the point of announcing changes to testing were to reduce the amount of the worried well who were expecting to be tested and could flood the system.

I will see if I can find greater clarity on that.

 

[elbows]

I havent found the complete answer yet, but there are several clues in this document (updated March 12th) regarding priority of testing during periods of significant demand:

COVID-19: guidance for sampling and for diagnostic laboratories

Information for clinical diagnostic laboratories regarding safety, sampling and packaging specimens associated with COVID-19.

www.gov.uk

Group 1 (test first): patient requiring critical care for the management of pneumonia, ARDS or influenza like illness (ILI)†, or an alternative indication of severe illness has been provided, for example severe pneumonia or ARDS

Group 2: all other patients requiring admission to hospital* for management of pneumonia, ARDS or ILI

Group 3: clusters of disease in residential or care settings, for example long term care facility, prisons, boarding schools

So group 3 gives some indication of non-hospital cases that they still envisage testing.

 

[elbows]

Another BBC attempt to explain the UK stance:

14:46 on their live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51866403

Pallab Ghosh
Science correspondent, BBC News

Many countries are taking tough measures such as school closures, cancelling mass gatherings and severe travel restrictions. But the UK has adopted relatively modest controls. The difference can be explained partly by the fact that some of the countries are further into their epidemics.
Computer simulations indicate Britain is in the early stages. Its top scientists believe it is too soon to impose severe restrictions .
Such limitations might last several months and risk “self-isolation fatigue”, with people leaving their homes when the epidemic reaches its height. Many elderly people, who are particularly at risk of developing severe symptoms, are already isolated.
Cutting them off from their communities now, when the risks are still relatively low, would create unnecessary difficulties for them.
School closures have also yet to be announced. Such measures are effective for controlling serious flu epidemics, but Covid-19 seems to affect children less.
In addition, school closures would take many much needed NHS staff away from their jobs while they look after their own children.

 

[Steel Icarus]

All-college email. Training Monday and Tuesday covering all aspects of teaching and communication from home in readiness. This time next week I think we'll be shut down, as I've thought for a while now.

 

[Steel Icarus]

798 positive, increase of 208.
3007 tested in 24hrs.

35% increase.

 

[prunus]

35% increase.

The daily increases are going to become less useful as a measure of anything, other than a function of the number of tests really, as they focus the testing regime on those likely to be positive.

 

[Steel Icarus]

The daily increases are going to become less useful as a measure of anything, other than a function of the number of tests really, as they focus the testing regime on those likely to be positive.

Yeah, I know. I just like the numbers. These are two weeks old though are they not?

 

[Callie]

Announcement of ending of previous testing regime was only yesterday, so probably still catching up with tests ordered under that system, and I suspect there might be additional devil in the detail. Especially since its possible that part of the point of announcing changes to testing were to reduce the amount of the worried well who were expecting to be tested and could flood the system.

I will see if I can find greater clarity on that.

Kind of yes. No more community testing of mild cases. Self isolate. Call 111 only if in need of medical assistance. Testing for those "admitted" to hospital with respiratory symptoms.

 

[Callie]

I havent found the complete answer yet, but there are several clues in this document (updated March 12th) regarding priority of testing during periods of significant demand:

COVID-19: guidance for sampling and for diagnostic laboratories

Information for clinical diagnostic laboratories regarding safety, sampling and packaging specimens associated with COVID-19.

www.gov.uk

So group 3 gives some indication of non-hospital cases that they still envisage testing.

If testing capacity allows

 

[elbows]

What about medical staff being tested? (eg after exposure to a positive patient or when there is strong suspicion of nosocomial spread).

Are we still going to see exceptions to the new regime, eg will we still hear of public figures testing positive even if they are not hospitalised?

 

[Flavour]

I cannot believe the UK government is saying they're fine with potentially half a million people dying. What utter scum.

 

[elbows]

I cannot believe the UK government is saying they're fine with potentially half a million people dying. What utter scum.

I wasnt surprised they took this approach in terms of what they are actually doing with policy, but I have expressed plenty of surprise this week that they have so publicly and unambiguously nailed themselves to that mast. They've not given themselves any cover at all, they've not tried to pretend that they are taking the same approach as other countries, and they've gone on the record with some of their modelling assumptions that everyone will be able to test the validity of in the coming weeks.

 

[Edie]

Another BBC attempt to explain the UK stance:

14:46 on their live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51866403

I was impressed by Johnson and the scientific and medical advisors yesterday. I thought the position was well explained and rational. Basically: wash your hands, flatten the curve, herd immunity, and timely social distancing measures to avoid social fatigue.

 

[cupid_stunt]

All May elections have been called off.

That'll pissed off Rory Stewart.

 

[kropotkin]

Am I right in assuming this is just the peeps who present to a hospital?

Yes, as we've now moved to not community testing (so if symptomatic, no test, stay at home and isolate for 7 days), and only testing hospitalised (first part of the new groups-to-test definition - "requires hospitalisation") patients.

 

[elbows]

I was impressed by Johnson and the scientific and medical advisors yesterday. I thought the position was well explained and rational. Basically: wash your hands, flatten the curve, herd immunity, and timely social distancing measures to avoid social fatigue.

I am guilty of independently explaining on this forum the rationale behind this sort of approach, sometimes before the government did. So I know what you mean. But, unless they are being overly clever with the behavioural psychology and are using reverse psychology to get people to 'take more personal steps and responsibility because the government is perceived as doing too little', they've gone for an extreme version of this approach, and some people such as myself are very nervous about the timing assumptions they have indicated publicly. My anxiety levels have been elevated since they said that they think we are 4 weeks behind Italy, but either way I'm not going to look forward to finding out whether they are right on that or not. If the answer to that takes 4 weeks or more to become clear, I will be overjoyed.

 

[sheothebudworths]

I was impressed by Johnson and the scientific and medical advisors yesterday. I thought the position was well explained and rational. Basically: wash your hands, flatten the curve, herd immunity, and timely social distancing measures to avoid social fatigue.

I get all of that but I can't help but think that the time to start flattening the curve is absolutely being driven by reasons which are not about minimising the cost to lives.

 

[Edie]

I get all of that but I can't help but think that the time to start flattening the curve is absolutely being driven by reasons which are not about minimising the cost to lives.

I’m not that cynical I don’t think mate.

 

[elbows]

Alternative possibility (not sure, cant rule it out I suppose):

They are actually still more in tune with other countries such as EU ones than the choice of rhetoric suggests. With just a few main differences:

School closures - they probably realise the NHS is in worse staffing shape than some other countries, and that the knock on effects on healthcare workers from closing schools right now is something they cannot stand the burden of at this particular stage. Alternatively, they are actually planning more imminent measures on this front but dont want to telegraph that move yet.

Other closures and restrictions - they wanted as many events as possible to be cancelled by the organisers and participants, rather than government. And for the stuff that government will mandate, they want to do a bit every day or so, rather than all at once.

Timing - they've decided on a particular public communication strategy that I dont fully understand, and the actual timing of some stuff wont be as far off as they were trying to suggest in press conferences this week.

Certainly the flattening the curve stuff is not some weird UK-only thing, its in EU planning documents and was touted by experts before we reached the point where governments in this part of the world had to act/reveal their plans. Its just the timing of it that seemed rather out on a limb in this weeks press conferences.

 

[sheothebudworths]

I’m not that cynical I don’t think mate.

You're not - but I am.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Alternative possibility (not sure, cant rule it out I suppose):

They are actually still more in tune with other countries such as EU ones than the choice of rhetoric suggests. With just a few main differences:

School closures - they probably realise the NHS is in worse staffing shape than some other countries, and that the knock on effects on healthcare workers from closing schools right now is something they cannot stand the burden of at this particular stage. Alternatively, they are actually planning more imminent measures on this front but dont want to telegraph that move yet.

Other closures and restrictions - they wanted as many events as possible to be cancelled by the organisers and participants, rather than government. And for the stuff that government will mandate, they want to do a bit every day or so, rather than all at once.

Timing - they've decided on a particular public communication strategy that I dont fully understand, and the actual timing of some stuff wont be as far off as they were trying to suggest in press conferences this week.

Certainly the flattening the curve stuff is not some weird UK-only thing, its in EU planning documents and was touted by experts before we reached the point where governments in this part of the world had to act/reveal their plans. Its just the timing of it that seemed rather out on a limb in this weeks press conferences.

One of the other countries that announced school closures yesterday (I can't remember which!) had a plan to keep some schools open, effectively for child care - so kids who have parents who can't stop work etc.

 

[rookwood]

I’m not that cynical I don’t think mate.

It’s not cynical; in one the early reports (possibly Tuesday/Weds) in the Times on the behavioural modelling they were open about incorporating other factors such as how to avoid skiving into their modelling. Nudge theory wasn’t built for this.

 

[Orang Utan]

So the UK is basically a giant laboratory right now. Thanks Boris.

 

[lizzieloo]

I bet you all just googled "nosocomial "

 

[prunus]

I bet you all just googled "nosocomial "

I did indeed and now I have a marvellous new word in my lexicon

 

[quimcunx]

coronavirus - improving vocabularies since 2020.

 

[elbows]

Ha, I normally shy away from using that word as there is too much jargon already, but now I'm glad I did.

 

[lizzieloo]

Ha, I normally shy away from using that word as there is too much jargon already, but now I'm glad I did.

me too

 

[littlebabyjesus]

All May elections have been called off.

That'll pissed off Rory Stewart.

Oh no it won't. Khan was headed for a landslide. It'll piss off Khan!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I bet you all just googled "nosocomial "

I keep reading that a no-so-comical. And I guess it isn't.