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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

sheothebudworths said:
I get all of that but I can't help but think that the time to start flattening the curve is absolutely being driven by reasons which are not about minimising the cost to lives.
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I share your cynicism, but we don't know, do we? It might prove to be right. It might prove to be wrong.

It is kind of staggering the way Johnson stood there and basically said 'get ready to bury some loved ones'.
 
Orang Utan said:
So the UK is basically a giant laboratory right now. Thanks Boris.
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One consequence of this govt's approach is how the lack of central action plays out on the ground. I work at a university and it looked like yesterday we were seeing a sector wide shift towards closing down/moving things online. Found out today my institution are not closing and have had a series of email about continuing the 'business critical' aspects of the work (ffs). So, some universities have staff working from home but essentially self isolating, whereas we are trooping in... anxious about risks etc. Similarly, I got a phone call from my Mum's care home last night to say they were in lockdown, so no visitors. Then got another call today to say they are not. In such circumstances, how can you have the slightest bit of confidence that staff working there haven't got undiagnosed virus (they need the money and, hey, we ain't fucking testing anyway!). The woman who rang me said they were getting no advice. This really is a strategy of letting it play out/let it rip.
 
sheothebudworths said:
That article looks bonkers (on pretty much every point), based on the testing we have done so far along with the rules/restrictions for current testing.
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You may be right .. personally I am grasping at any idea / hope that Britain may not fully follow Italy. In part because it seems such a doomsday scenario, if Britain follows then why not Spain France Germany - the full 27 EU countries, etc, then not just us but Europe really would be in the shit.
 
The idea of allowing this run through the population so as to develop herd immunity is frightening.
One of the wealthiest countries in the world is going to allow 1/4 million at risk citizens die?
A vaccine could be in place by next March. But no...the British government cant delay things for the sake of older or sicker people?
Am I being too simplistic about this?
 
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Sugar Kane said:
The idea of allowing this run through the population so as to develop herd immunity is frightning.
One of the wealthiest countries in the world is going to allow 1/4 million at risk citizens die?
A vaccine could be in place by next March. But no...the British government cant delay things for the sake of older or sicker people?
Am I being too simplistic about this?
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I don't think you are being too simplistic. I believe Britain has / had choices as to how we respond to this, although the further along the present trajectory we go, the less options we will have.
 
elbows said:
Certainly the flattening the curve stuff is not some weird UK-only thing, its in EU planning documents and was touted by experts before we reached the point where governments in this part of the world had to act/reveal their plans. Its just the timing of it that seemed rather out on a limb in this weeks press conferences.
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What I don't understand is how they think doing nothing is flattening the curve.

If we lock down now, we're still Italy in 2 weeks-ish. If we do basically nothing (the current situation), then we're going to have the biggest peak except possibly USA. They're saying let's flatten the peak, but in actual fact are going for short, sharp shock, IMO.
 
I'll get back to you on that shortly.

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Why is the UK not shutting schools like other countries?

The government's top scientists are ploughing a different furrow to that of many other countries.
www.bbc.co.uk

There are undoubtedly some who do disagree with the strategy. But there is an acceptance by such critics that Sir Patrick and Prof Whitty are the ones in the hot seat, having to make the biggest calls they have made in their professional lives. So the science community is prepared to give them the benefit of the doubt and not speak out, for now at least.
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This is a lie. Some are already speaking out.
 
Sugar Kane said:
The idea of allowing this run through the population so as to develop herd immunity is frightning.
One of the wealthiest countries in the world is going to allow 1/4 million at risk citizens die?
A vaccine could be in place by next March. But no...the British government cant delay things for the sake of older or sicker people?
Am I being too simplistic about this?
Click to expand...

They are hoping to delay the peak until summer, so the NHS is in a better situation to cope.

Delay the peak longer, and it ends up being in the winter, when the annual joy of flu arrives, and even more people will die.
 
Fez909 said:
What I don't understand is how they think doing nothing is flattening the curve.

If we lock down now, we're still Italy in 2 weeks-ish. If we do basically nothing (the current situation), then we're going to have the biggest peak except possibly USA. They're saying let's flatten the peak, but in actual fact are going for short, sharp shock, IMO.
Click to expand...

Either their computer model is shit, or we have made incorrect assumptions about the timing and their 4 weeks is closer to reality than our 'days-2 weeks', or they were being misleading with the way they spoke about 4 weeks and that isnt really the timing they expect.

Also have to factor in that 'doing nothing' hasnt exactly been their approach. Close to nothing at times, but there have been some things, and there were a few more today than yesterday (eg local elections being cancelled).

Plus there is the hard to measure impact of the mitigation that people and organisations have decided to do themselves.

I'm going to dig into the European Centre for Disease Control documents again shortly, there is plenty to compare and contrast with in there.
 
cupid_stunt said:
They are hoping to delay the peak until summer, so the NHS is in a better situation to cope.

Delay the peak longer, and it ends up being in the winter, when the annual joy of flu arrives, and even more people will die.
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They're thinking the first wave will enable herd immunity. But the cost is going to be high in terms of mortality.
If there is a second wave then you end up with another problem.

"First do no harm" seems to have been gone out the window.
😥

"Many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time" Boris Johnson.
 
elbows said:
I'll get back to you on that shortly.

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Why is the UK not shutting schools like other countries?

The government's top scientists are ploughing a different furrow to that of many other countries.
www.bbc.co.uk



This is a lie. Some are already speaking out.
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They definitely are. Even on Today this morning, which had the standard Brit mainstream editorial line of "well maybe the government is right when it says something entirely different to basically everyone else", whenever they interviewed a scientist or doctor the latter tended to say "uh yeah this is not what I'd recommend/what I did/what the science says".
 
Fez909 said:
What I don't understand is how they think doing nothing is flattening the curve.

If we lock down now, we're still Italy in 2 weeks-ish. If we do basically nothing (the current situation), then we're going to have the biggest peak except possibly USA. They're saying let's flatten the peak, but in actual fact are going for short, sharp shock, IMO.
Click to expand...

They seem to be building up the herd immunity thing, more than they're focussing on flattening the curve, for now.
The message is people will die - but that we're then better protected from it returning later.
But that all seems to be based on a guess as to how widely it has already spread too, while testing is also being limited and where the daily rise in cases doen't really reflect the number os suspected cases being tested, even.
I understand why testing is limited - that you have to have the capacity to test - but it feels a bit like a roll of the dice, in terms of predicting numbers of the existing spread.

I hope I haven't got loads of that wrong.
 
elbows said:
Either their computer model is shit, or we have made incorrect assumptions about the timing and their 4 weeks is closer to reality than our 'days-2 weeks', or they were being misleading with the way they spoke about 4 weeks and that isnt really the timing they expect.

Also have to factor in that 'doing nothing' hasnt exactly been their approach. Close to nothing at times, but there have been some things, and there were a few more today than yesterday (eg local elections being cancelled).

Plus there is the hard to measure impact of the mitigation that people and organisations have decided to do themselves.

I'm going to dig into the European Centre for Disease Control documents again shortly, there is plenty to compare and contrast with in there.
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They are doing far far less than what it sounds like in the press conferences. We're now in stage 2 and they've said wash your hands, and don't go on a cruise if you're old, and stay at home if you have viral symptoms. That's very very mild mitigation.

What I do wonder though is they might still be right, and it could be that their model says there's no way to avoid all the deaths, or even flatten the curve enough to make a difference, so short sharp shock is actually the 'best' outcome. As we all [should] know, scientific modelling is not a politics-free zone. If your model weights the economy as equal to human cost, well...

I think we're going in hard on purpose, despite what they're claiming.

The stuff you keep talking about in regards to knowing soon if their numbers are right: the main one to check after the fact is the excess deaths. We know it's variable how many die, depending on how overwhelmed the health service is (the height of the peak and the duration of epidemic over the health service's capability). They're claiming 1% now. Italy's is way higher currently (I know, I know, can't compare while we still have active cases...but it looks bad). China's was higher than we thought, but still chance for a 2nd wave/rebound there.

I think we might see much higher levels in this country with this approach, unless something changes soon.
 
sheothebudworths said:
They seem to be building up the herd immunity thing, more than they're focussing on flattening the curve, for now.
The message is people will die - but that we're then better protected from it returning later.
But that all seems to be based on a guess as to how widely it has already spread too, while testing is also being limited and where the daily rise in cases doen't really reflect the number os suspected cases being tested, even.
I understand why testing is limited - that you have to have the capacity to test - but it feels a bit like a roll of the dice, in terms of predicting numbers of the existing spread.

I hope I haven't got loads of that wrong.
Click to expand...
It sounds like you've got it all right to me : building up herd immunity means letting people get infected by doing little.
 
The Mirror of all places:
The authorities want "herd immunity" to protect us against future waves of the bug, but have twisted the phrase and its purpose. It no longer means a vaccinated population protecting its most vulnerable from an outbreak, but a population with rampant infection, killing off its vulnerable members at speed. They're worried about 3 years' hence; this year has been written off already.
Click to expand...
www.mirror.co.uk

Who's going to survive the coronavirus? The ones who listen to their instincts

Boris Johnson can't be trusted, the experts are divided, and you're right to be worried, says Fleet Street Fox. So use your common sense to beat the pandemic
www.mirror.co.uk www.mirror.co.uk
 
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