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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Well I dont really know what to say about this article right now, would be interested to hear the opinions of other people who have been following the numbers in Italy, the UK and other places.

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: Three reasons why the UK might not look like Italy

Boris Johnson's chief scientific adviser says the UK is four weeks behind Italy, What does that mean?
www.bbc.co.uk

Theres a bunch of stuff that doesnt make all that much sense to me as well as some obvious omissions, but I will sleep on it.
 
Given that even back in the Blair era of the UK-EU relationship, I sometimes noticed things that were painted in the press as being a Blair agenda were actually EU directive based, and that we havent really had time to disentangle from that world yet, I thought I would check out the European Centre for Disease Controls latest update.

Hmmm, maybe its the source of the '4 weeks behind Italy' thing.

The current pace of the increase in cases in the EU/EEA and the UK mirrors trends seen in China in January-early February and trends seen in Italy in mid-February.
Click to expand...

However that is specifically about case increase pacing. And its not the same as saying that we have 4 weeks until we resemble the current state of affairs in Italy. For example in regards the future, it actually says:

The speed with which COVID-19 can cause nationally incapacitating epidemics once transmission within the community is established, indicates that in a few weeks or even days, it is likely that similar situations to those seen in China and Italy may be seen in other EU/EEA countries or the UK.
Click to expand...

There is some other interesting stuff in there too but its a little late for me to be plucking more bits out to quote right now.

www.ecdc.europa.eu

Rapid risk assessment: Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: increased transmission in the EU/EEA and the UK – sixth update

Since ECDC’s fifth update on novel coronavirus published on 2 March 2020 and as of 11 March, the number of cases and deaths reported in the EU/EEA and the UK has been rising, mirroring the trends seen in China in January-early February and in northern Italy in late February. If this trend...
www.ecdc.europa.eu www.ecdc.europa.eu
 
Email from CEO went around today saying a patient had potential CV exposure (didn't say whether staff or relative source of potential exposure) , all non essential staff to discuss with line manager working from home.

I've sorted out work laptop and vpn dongle to pick up tomorrow, looks like WFH Monday onwards

Fucking furious schools not being closed, considering keeping daughter off school from Monday
 
Maybe I'm being overly cynical, but I suspect Hunt is just starting to position himself for a leadership bid once Johnson's handling of the CV crisis fails completely.

Being PM is still a worthwhile goal, even if it's of a country devastated by plague, with its population reduced by many millions and all public infrastructure in tatters.
 
andysays said:
Maybe I'm being overly cynical, but I suspect Hunt is just starting to position himself for a leadership bid once Johnson's handling of the CV crisis fails completely.

Being PM is still a worthwhile goal, even if it's of a country devastated by plague, with its population reduced by many millions and all public infrastructure in tatters.
Click to expand...

Not being cynical at all. This, this, and one million times this.
 
andysays said:
Maybe I'm being overly cynical, but I suspect Hunt is just starting to position himself for a leadership bid once Johnson's handling of the CV crisis fails completely.

Being PM is still a worthwhile goal, even if it's of a country devastated by plague, with its population reduced by many millions and all public infrastructure in tatters.
Click to expand...
He looked shaken though, I hate him and all of them but I believed he’s worried.
 
killer b said:
Hes probably just got some friends and loved ones who are more likely to die if this is a wrong call surely?
Click to expand...


Some of the very first cases were in his constituency, Haslemere and Farnham. For all his myriad faults, he is a local MP who was born here, schooled here and still lives here. So possibly feels a bit more responsibility to his constituents than an MP parachuted in like Gove or Johnson.
 
Buddy Bradley said:
BBC being shit at challenging the CSO about why the UK's tactic are so completely different to the rest of Europe.
Click to expand...

The journo's questions at yesterday's briefing were poor to say the least - nothing about the behavioural science aspect of the strategy for example, which basically inferred that people will not do what is asked of them.

Interesting to wake up and see that I tend to agree with Hunt - we live in strange times...
 
sorearm said:
Email from CEO went around today saying a patient had potential CV exposure (didn't say whether staff or relative source of potential exposure) , all non essential staff to discuss with line manager working from home.

I've sorted out work laptop and vpn dongle to pick up tomorrow, looks like WFH Monday onwards

Fucking furious schools not being closed, considering keeping daughter off school from Monday
Click to expand...

Yeah. We took our kids out today for the duration. Both myself and Mrs Bendy are self-employed and both of us are already being badly hit by the situation in terms of work coming in so there's no danger of there not being someone at home to look after them :(
 
I think the strategy is slowly sinking in - 'herd immunity' so a significant majority of us contract the virus suffer mild symptoms recover and develop immunity and bingo transmission problem alleviated...a somewhat different approach from elsewhere. Re the large gatherings how does the CSO know there is more chance of catching it in the pub then at a football match - where is his evidence? Seems a lot of organisations are doing the job for the government anyway...
 
It will likely be based on basic stuff such as enclosed spaces with much poorer ventilation having increased potential for spread. But the full picture needs to include travel and the mixing of people from different areas.

Their justification for not banning large public gatherings did seem to rely on the idea that people would 'go to the pub to watch the football game instead'. Leading to the obvious suspicion that there was still some risk from the outdoor event and the associated travel, and they had to contrast that with the greater risk from pubs etc in order to justify their stance.
 
I do think though, purely from the comms perspective (again) irrespective of the media’s inadequacy, the government is starting to lose control of the situation.

Significant numbers of people are taking children out of school, some universities have decided to close (or go onliine, as far as they can, but this is often not feasible) and others will follow today and early next week, students are in any event voting with their feet (particularly international students) and just heading home to be with families.

They didn’t want to cancel sport but the spread amongst the professional football community has meant it has been cancelled anyway on its own authority (so much for ‘pubs’), and there is huge pressure in the unions for significant (and if necessary illegal) coordinated action to force the hands of employers. The GMB is demanding that the government nationalise the private healthcare sector and seize their beds. In a crisis like this you’ll find that policy will be popular with every Tory voter who doesn’t have top-end private health insurance, and even some of them.

The keep calm and carry on thing isn’t going to work at a communications level in a globalised world and the danger for the government is they become seen as an incompetent, complacent, irrelevance as sectors make their own arrangements. One of the problems with political leadership is you do have to set the agenda; if you consistently refuse to do this, others will.

That’s aside from the broader questions of ‘nudge’/Cummings vs. the epidemiologists.
 
elbows said:
How fancy can behavioural science be in regards to reverse psychology?

Is it possible they are trying to work on several levels at once, and have factored in the idea that people might actually take more personal steps to reduce the spread if they think the government isnt going far enough?
Click to expand...
I think at least that they are definitely factoring in that a certain proportion of people will hear the message of 'next week we may be imposing these tighter restrictions on you' and start doing those things themselves now.
 
Fuck this times a million:

Analysis
By Nick Triggle
Health correspondent
The worst health crisis in a generation. Lives will be lost. All this is true. But what got missed in the government's coronavirus message - understandably, given the scale of the challenge - is that we should also get on with our lives.

We should keep calm and carry on (while following the advice, of course). At the moment, there are two basic things to do - wash our hands regularly and isolate if we develop symptoms.
Click to expand...

We should still go out, play sport, attend events and keep children in school. Why? Short of never leaving your home and the rest of the household following suit, it's impossible to eliminate the risk of getting the virus. It's circulating.

Even if you skip your trip to a concert or the theatre, you may well catch it on your way to work or when you do the weekly shop.
Click to expand...

This virus is with us now. And it will be for the foreseeable future. Only when we have a vaccine or if herd immunity develops - if enough of the population is exposed to it - will we have protection.

There will no doubt be a time when drastic measures are needed - to flatten the peak, protect the most vulnerable at the time of highest risk and stop the NHS getting overwhelmed - but it's not now. That's the clear message.
Click to expand...

www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: UK measures defended after criticism

The government defends its coronavirus plans as confirmed cases rise to 798.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
elbows said:
Fuck this times a million:







www.bbc.co.uk

Coronavirus: UK measures defended after criticism

The government defends its coronavirus plans as confirmed cases rise to 798.
www.bbc.co.uk
Click to expand...

Baffling... there genuinely seems to be an attitude of ‘don’t worry, we brits are above all this’. And so much internally contradictory shit being spouted. We were never at ‘delay’, we just moved straight to ‘let it run’.
 
elbows said:
How fancy can behavioural science be in regards to reverse psychology?

Is it possible they are trying to work on several levels at once, and have factored in the idea that people might actually take more personal steps to reduce the spread if they think the government isnt going far enough?
Click to expand...

Anecdotally I’ve not met anyone worried about it (at all), except some of my older, better informed relatives. I’ve not noticed fewer people in supermarkets, or in the centre (of Sheffield).
 
Thanks for the messages and offers of support everyone, I really appreciate it. I have tried to make sense of the info from work compared to the info from government and the media and I feel a lot less stressed today. It's going to be tricky but we will get through it. My brother lives a lot closer to my mam so he does more of the heavy lifting but me and my kids go every week and get her shopping and whatnot. She's remarkably fit considering she's 85 and had a hell of a tough life but we are still worried what might happen if me and my brother have to isolate ourselves. I think I will have to meet up with him and make a plan.
Working from home today, still waiting for instructions for next week but hey it's only 2 pm and we finish in a couple of hours so plenty of time :mad:
 
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