Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[littlebabyjesus]

Speaking of numbers, Hancock today seemed keener to bring up Johnsons original 250,000 tests target than his own 100,000 a day one. I think he wanted to demonstrate the scale of their ambition without the pesky timetable, since time has nearly run out for his target.

It'll be a million a day soon. Meanwhile, back in the real world, it's currently at about 20,000.

This was Dominic Raab five days ago

I've set the goal of 100,000 tests a day by the end of this month and I'm delighted to say that the expansion of capacity is ahead of plans, even though demand has, thus far, been lower than expected.

Fuck me. 'ahead of plans'. They're actually doing super-well! Better than even the high standards they set themselves.

The operation was a success. Unfortunately the patient died.

 

[PD58]

Looks like Panorama have been digging...missing kit, reclassifying Covid-19 etc etc - it would be hard to make this stuff up...

UK failed to stockpile crucial protective kit

Just seen posted above...but worth reading twice!!

 

[2hats]

Speaking of numbers, Hancock today seemed keener to bring up Johnsons original 250,000 tests target than his own 100,000 a day one. I think he wanted to demonstrate the scale of their ambition without the pesky timetable, since time has nearly run out for his target.

Given some trained healthcare workers can struggle to swab a subject correctly, consistently for the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test, I would guess having random members of the public performing the nasopharyngeal swab on themselves (step 2) is more about trying to hit targets rather than striving for accuracy and collecting useful data.

 

[zahir]

Given some trained healthcare workers can struggle to swab a subject correctly, consistently for the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test, I would guess having random members of the public performing the nasopharyngeal swab on themselves (step 2) is more about trying to hit targets rather than striving for accuracy and collecting useful data.

Is self-testing happening anywhere else or is it just in the UK?

 

[elbows]

Given some trained healthcare workers can struggle to swab a subject correctly, consistently for the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test, I would guess having random members of the public performing the nasopharyngeal swab on themselves (step 2) is more about trying to hit targets rather than striving for accuracy and collecting useful data.

I also wont be surprised if they are deliberately building a backlog of swabs that are waiting to be processed, so that they can process a huge batch on one day to hit the target for at least a single day.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I also wont be surprised if they are deliberately building a backlog of swabs that are waiting to be processed, so that they can process a huge batch on one day to hit the target for at least a single day.

My first thought on that was 'don't be so absurd', but quite a few tests are done on dead people, aren't they? Could hold those back a few days without harming anyone. Would also give them some nice low death figures in the lead-up to the glorious Day of the 100,000 Tests, as 31 April 2020 will be known from hence forth.

 

[elbows]

I havent thought that much about it, and there are a few different tests that are probably subject to some lag already. I dont even know as they are competent enough to try to hit it on a single day in the way I describe, I was just speculating. We'll see, but given that there are a number of different areas of capacity bottleneck that can affect their total throughput, some manipulation to temporarily work around that is something I will still keep in mind.

So far I have no reason to think they would want to manipulate a particular days death figures. There isnt much to gain from that, its the trends that matter on that one, and we are already used to seeing weekend-related dips.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I wasn't being entirely serious, but this stuff is hard to satirise because reality pops up and trumps your imagined absurdity, as with the Raab quote above.

 

[frogwoman]

How many self tests are being done compared to normal ones? Self testing seems like it could well go wrong especially as it seems quite painful

 

[Humberto]

They fucking know what they've got to do. Reduce deaths short and long term number 1. Why aren't they going for the most aggressive countermeasures possible?

 

[The39thStep]

I don't know if he's barking up the right tree, but I don't think it's Starmer's job at the moment to be in step with the mood of the country - it's to expose the failing and incompetence of the government.

I agree which makes it odd that one of his opening topics was about plans to end the lockdown

 

[Dogsauce]

I also wont be surprised if they are deliberately building a backlog of swabs that are waiting to be processed, so that they can process a huge batch on one day to hit the target for at least a single day.

Is the target ‘number of samples taken’ or ‘number processed in lab’? I think what they’ll actually do is claim they have the capability to take 100,000 (by some kind of dishonest extrapolation of the fastest time achieved in some location or other) but that not that many people turned up so it‘s all OK. Big cheers from the friendly press and so on.

 

[elbows]

Is the target ‘number of samples taken’ or ‘number processed in lab’? I think what they’ll actually do is claim they have the capability to take 100,000 (by some kind of dishonest extrapolation of the fastest time achieved in some location or other) but that not that many people turned up so it‘s all OK. Big cheers from the friendly press and so on.

There have been a few signs already of them testing how 'demand side excuses' will go down, I think I commented on this once, it might be part of the mix. But it also comes across as especially absurd. Absurdity is admittedly often to be found in this country, but I dont know if its the look they really want right now. There might be too much groaning!

They might also be planning to have other testing pillars come online and get added to the couple we are already used to seeing daily numbers from. Perhaps a bit of all of the above, and then perhaps still some way away from the target, but sort of closer than it looked like we could possibly muster for ages?

 

[Dogsauce]

Does this seem right? If it is Starmer hasnt hit the right spot has he?

View attachment 209374

nobody going to comment that this is quite a leading question, bordering on push-polling? Makes an assumption that the situation will get clearer and that we don’t have enough information to make decisions now.

 

[editor]

So the NHS wants to go it alone. If it burns battery life, people aren't going to use it.

Apple and Google are expected to release their contact tracing technology to developers tomorrow. But the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) says it won’t use the Apple-Google model, BBC reports. While the two tech companies are working on a “decentralized” approach, in which the contact tracing matches will happen on users’ devices, the NHS is opting for a “centralized” model, in which the matching and alerts happen via a computer server.

Apple and Google have promoted the decentralized approach as a way to protect users’ privacy from authorities and hackers. According to the BBC, the NHS believes the centralized approach will allow it to more easily audit the system and adapt it as new scientific evidence comes in.

Another potential drawback, is that the centralized approach may eat up more power. Apple’s solution lets the contact tracing happen in the background, but the UK’s app has to be woken up every time the device detects another nearby device running the same software, BBC explains.

UK’s NHS won’t use Apple-Google approach to COVID-19 tracking

The NHS is opting for a "centralized" approach to contact tracing, opposed to the "decentralized" Apple-Google model.

www.engadget.com

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Is the target ‘number of samples taken’ or ‘number processed in lab’? I think what they’ll actually do is claim they have the capability to take 100,000 (by some kind of dishonest extrapolation of the fastest time achieved in some location or other) but that not that many people turned up so it‘s all OK. Big cheers from the friendly press and so on.

It's all just more deflection. Deflection away from the abysmal number of tests being carried out today, which is the number that actually matters - tests that actually exist. The press is being generally appallingly weak on this subject. The BBC repeats the government line that the UK cannot test like other countries cos we don't have the pre-existing infrastructure as fact, not reported from the govt, just plain fact. This was the excuse given wrt Germany. But what about the dozens of other countries that are testing far more than the UK? Portugal has a more advanced laboratory system than the UK? And Switzerland and Austria and Norway and Italy and Spain, etc, etc, etc. They are getting away with deflection and outright lies.

As for the 'demand' excuse, well words fail me. No country had a pre-existing logistical infrastructure to carry out these tests at these levels, yet dozens of other countries have been many times more successful in this endeavour than the UK. What's their excuse for that?

 

[sheothebudworths]

Is the target ‘number of samples taken’ or ‘number processed in lab’? I think what they’ll actually do is claim they have the capability to take 100,000 (by some kind of dishonest extrapolation of the fastest time achieved in some location or other) but that not that many people turned up so it‘s all OK. Big cheers from the friendly press and so on.

'Capacity' has seemed to be the most recent measure - easily the largest - means fuck all when you don't have enough staff to test.
Reality now is that it falls to individuals to self test, without any professional input.
Have to hope that it'll bump up actual numbers of health staff needing to be tested for eg, but there's not much to be taken from the numbers when there's no commitment to how they're taken.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

As dogsauce says, 'capacity' is just a piece of bullshit until it's actually been demonstrated. I would call that out as just an outright lie - having the staff to carry out the tests is an integral part of 'capacity'.

 

[gosub]

Is Richard E Grant off his tits tonight or is it a normal thing

 

[sptme]

Read the small print:

The number of tests includes:
i. Tests conducted with a result
ii. Tests posted out to an individual at home.

Why are those in (ii) being counted just now? Surely they should be counted when the samples are returned and tested otherwise there is a risk of double counting?

Easy to get to 100k tests this way. Bung em in the post. Job done.

 

[Marty1]

If I was in the UK this world be the first sign of a light at the end of the tunnel

Coronavirus: Greggs to begin reopening shops amid lockdown

The bakery chain plans to reopen a limited number of outlets next month in a "controlled trial".

www.bbc.com

No sign of McDonalds opening their drive-thru yet.

Is McDonald's drive thru really reopening and when will McDonald's open again?

Just want her back...

metro.co.uk

Their coffee is superb.

 

[cupid_stunt]

As dogsauce says, 'capacity' is just a piece of bullshit until it's actually been demonstrated. I would call that out as just an outright lie - having the staff to carry out the tests is an integral part of 'capacity'.

I am sure this was posted at the time, but worth re-posting, as it illustrates there was massive under use of capacity even back on 17th April, at the Milton Keynes 'super lab'.

A scientist testing for coronavirus at the Government’s first “super lab” says staff are being sent home early because there is so little to do and work is like a “leisurely jog rather than a marathon”.

Gianmarco Raddi, a molecular biologist volunteering at the Milton Keynes “Lighthouse Lab”, said as few as 1,000 swabs have been analysed for Covid-19 in a single day, dramatically lower than the “tens of thousands” it was told it would be processing.

Despite the minister saying each laboratory would have “industrial capacity” to test samples from patients and frontline NHS staff each day, Mr Raddi has told how academics and lab technicians are sent home after just four hours because so few swabs are being sent there for analysis.

He asked: “We are ready. Why aren’t we being sent more swabs?” He continued: “Our shifts were meant to be excruciating 12-hour marathons. In reality, they are more like laid back morning jogs.”

“We were promised 5,000 samples ‘to begin with’,” he continued. “We never saw those numbers. They told us we should prepare for a 24-hour operation, but we are done in four or five [hours].”

Coronavirus 'super lab' staff sent home early due to so few samples sent for testing

Over a week since the first of three 'super labs' was opened, a volunteer reveals how staff are being sent home early due to so few tested

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Dogsauce]

E t

'Capacity' has seemed to be the most recent measure - easily the largest - means fuck all when you don't have enough staff to test.
Reality now is that it falls to individuals to self test, without any professional input.
Have to hope that it'll bump up actual numbers of health staff needing to be tested for eg, but there's not much to be taken from the numbers when there's no commitment to how they're taken.

the other aspect is that the test centres are in out of town locations, and you have to go there in a car for the process to work (so you are isolated from staff at the test centre). In places like London car ownership is pretty low, plus you have to be actually well enough to drive there. That will thin out the numbers testing, and bias the population sampled more towards the ‘worried well’. They need to be bringing this into communities more, though I can see that being difficult to manage in terms of keeping people away from each other, you don’t need to encourage sick people to leave their homes. I suspect there will be a high number of negatives from the drive-through places for this reason, I hope they don’t build policies based on the low number of positives.

 

[danny la rouge]

Please give this some consideration. I’ve just discovered from relatives in Australia that what we call lockdown they call lock up. Is this a Northern/Southern Hemisphere plughole direction type anomaly?

 

[Yossarian]

Please give this some consideration. I’ve just discovered from relatives in Australia that what we call lockdown they call lock up. Is this a Northern/Southern Hemisphere plughole direction type anomaly?

Has their government's response been a massive fuckdown?

 

[danny la rouge]

Has their government's response been a massive fuckdown?

Their government always fucks under the workers.

 

[Petcha]

There's currently another poor Tory minister being demolished on ITV by Piers Morgan for fans of that kind of thing. I'm impressed they keep putting these people up for this.

 

[danny la rouge]

There's currently another poor Tory minister being demolished on ITV by Piers Morgan for fans of that kind of thing. I'm impressed they keep putting these people up for this.

If it made any difference they wouldn’t.

 

[teqniq]

'London is so strange and sad': the sacked hospitality workers sleeping rough

 

[Petcha]

If it made any difference they wouldn’t.

This one was particularly hapless. The worst so far. She had never even heard of the exercise the government ran four years ago simulating a pandemic. It was toe curling. I imagine she's gone for a stiff drink after that. I agree it might not make much difference to publicly humiliate these people every morning but it's still immensely satisfying watching the incompetent shitstains endure it.