Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[two sheds]

Aside from pay and conditions for nurses, and conditions for doctors.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

"How could I be fucking the NHS? It saved my life!"

Bluster, lie, bluster, lie, bluster, lie.

 

[Wilf]

The instruction sheet. As mentioned, text is small, and you also have to read pages across in two rows, which isn’t immediately obvious. Wonder if someone was trying to save paper/money?

View attachment 209217

Printing something that will be unreadable to a significant portion of the middle aged to elderly is staggering.

 

[2hats]

test yourself

Hmm. Public self-swabbing for a RT-PCR test, you say?


* Ponders false negatives *

 

[elbows]

To misquote Johnson, we are now at the phase where we wrestle the invisible mugger to the ground and then stick swabs up their nostrils.

 

[planetgeli]

elbows or 2hats do you have (or know where I can find) a breakdown of the UK deaths (from hospitals obviously) in terms of age demographics?

TIA

I've just seen indications the peak for all deaths was April 8th but for under 60s was April 11th btw. Would lockdown explain the difference? Or what?

Again, thanks.

 

[elbows]

elbows or 2hats do you have (or know where I can find) a breakdown of the UK deaths (from hospitals obviously) in terms of age demographics?

TIA

I've just seen indications the peak for all deaths was April 8th but for under 60s was April 11th btw. Would lockdown explain the difference? Or what?

Again, thanks.

There is a tab on the daily NHS England spreadsheet that has the numbers per day of actual death in hospital, by age ranges.

Download the latest one with 'total announced deaths' in its title from this page:

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations

www.england.nhs.uk

ONS data that lags more but goes beyond hospitals is also available, a new version will be out tomorrow so I will mention it again then.

As for differences in peak timing, there are too many variables, and the differences, especially in the younger age groups, involve too small numbers which further decreases confidence. Plus there could be differences in how quickly different ages progress to serious illness and death. And I certainly wouldnt try to build any sort of case for anything based on a couple of days difference in peak deaths.

 

[Artaxerxes]

And... I saw first hand how marvellous the NHS is. The idea that it is in crisis is a despicable lie.

"If I as the PM used got queue jumping special VIP treatment via the NHS then everyone else must be fine!"

 

[LDC]

Hmm. Public self-swabbing for a RT-PCR test, you say?


* Ponders false negatives *

Yeah, I've been wondering about poor test technique for the self tests. I've swabbed a couple of people and it's not pleasant (even to do tbh) and I imagine the chance of poor quality swabs if you do yourself is very, very high.

 

[planetgeli]

There is a tab on the daily NHS England spreadsheet that has the numbers per day of actual death in hospital, by age ranges.

Download the latest one with 'total announced deaths' in its title from this page:

Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations

www.england.nhs.uk

ONS data that lags more but goes beyond hospitals is also available, a new version will be out tomorrow so I will mention it again then.

As for differences in peak timing, there are too many variables, and the differences, especially in the younger age groups, involve too small numbers which further decreases confidence. Plus there could be differences in how quickly different ages progress to serious illness and death. And I certainly wouldnt try to build any sort of case for anything based on a couple of days difference in peak deaths.

Thank you, that's really helpful. Don't suppose there's another for Wales? (If not, why not btw?)

 

[elbows]

Thank you, that's really helpful. Don't suppose there's another for Wales? (If not, why not btw?)

Every nation does it their own way, I cannot say why some are better than others.

Wales has a dashboard that will show deaths by actual day of death (rather than reporting date). But it doesnt include the same data broken down by age.

Tableau Public

public.tableau.com

There could be other sources for all I know, half the battle was trying to find these reports over time as nations changed their systems of reporting.

Certainly the ONS data includes Wales. But at this stage a lot of their data that is broken down by age etc, will only give weekly figures, not daily. And its often broken down by one criteria or another, not both, so you are more likely to see figures per age group per week that include England & Wales merged together as one number. And there are delays, so the report from last Tuesday, whilst covering the week ending April 10th, will have lower numbers for that period than tomorrows version will show.

Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional - Office for National Statistics

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes the most up-to-date figures available for deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19).

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[frogwoman]

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/to...navirus-briefing-toby-helm-observer-1-6625055

Bit worrying.

Sunday Times

reporters were reportedly prevented from asking questions at the latest briefing after the newspaper claimed 10 Downing Street “sleepwalked” into the coronavirus epidemic, and revealing how Boris Johnson failed to attend five COBRA meetings in the lead up to the outbreak.



The Observer’s political editor Toby Helm wrote: “I am told Downing Street also barred Sunday Times from asking questions at its briefing because they dared to criticise government’s response to coronavirus. Surely not so in an advanced democracy.”



He also reported accusations that the government would prevent journalists who criticised the move from asking questions.



Twitter users were shocked, with one posting: “Typical cunning Cummings tactics. This guys is single handedly killing British democracy. That why he is on SAGE as well. To prevent sensible advise ever arriving in No 10.”

 

[elbows]

Why has north Wales only just announced a month's worth of deaths in one go? Seems bizarre. This now leaves Hywel Dda (my board) and Powys as the outliers with apparently only 14 deaths between them. Or are they suddenly going to announce chunks of deaths in the coming days?

These figures throw up a new sick joke almost every day.

Here we go with an explanation:

Coronavirus: Virus deaths error blamed on system 'glitch'

One health board "decided not to use" a reporting system set up for the Welsh NHS.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[SpineyNorman]

"How could I be fucking the NHS? It saved my life!"

Bluster, lie, bluster, lie, bluster, lie.

This is why he really needed to die.

 

[Azrael]

Well, he seems to be saying the right things, let's hope his actions match those words.

Maybe as he was so ill, it has made a difference on what would have happened otherwise.

While I've no interest in the Prince Hal redemption arc the press has written for Johnson (minus any admission of fault, naturally), there was some very interesting language in that speech: continuing to "suppress" the virus, keeping its R rate below one, and cautioning against losing control and allowing a second peak. The opposite of merely slowing the spread to keep the NHS within capacity and generate "herd immunity".

None of which says anything about their ability to make it work, of course, but at least the stated intent has changed.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

While I've no interest in the Prince Hal redemption arc the press has written for Johnson (minus any admission of fault, naturally), there was some very interesting language in that speech: continuing to "suppress" the virus, keeping its R rate below one, and cautioning against losing control and allowing a second peak. The opposite of merely slowing the spread to keep the NHS within capacity and generate "herd immunity".

None of which says anything about their ability to make it work, of course, but at least the stated intent has changed.

He's been shown a video of Angela Merkel.

(not even joking - bet that's what's happened)

 

[PD58]

Well...an interesting choice for the first public question!

 

[Azrael]

He's been shown a video of Angela Merkel.

(not even joking - bet that's what's happened)

Exactly what I was thinking!

Credit where it's due to Wales and Scotland for preempting Whitehall and publishing strategies that unequivocally committed to suppression of the virus via aggressive contact tracing and isolation. The government now know that if they want to continue with a "four nations" strategy, containment must be its objective.

 

[planetgeli]

Here we go with an explanation:

Coronavirus: Virus deaths error blamed on system 'glitch'

One health board "decided not to use" a reporting system set up for the Welsh NHS.

www.bbc.co.uk

I know, I saw this earlier. Unbelievable isn't it?

For anyone not following, north Wales, run by Betsi Cadwaladr health board, who are in special measures (i.e failing, and supposedly being monitored because they are failing) had reported no deaths up until last week. On Friday they suddenly announced 84 deaths. Here's why.

"When the epidemic first started earlier this year, Public Health Wales put in place a new electronic reporting system for health boards to use.

"That was to pull together the numbers so that we had an accurate figure.

"Betsi Cadwaladr decided not to use that system and used a different system.

Pushed on why it was not noticed until last week, he added: "The epidemic was moving east to west and south to north, we did expect to see a small number of deaths and cases up in the north.

"It's just that the trend was bigger than expected and that's what triggered the question as to whether reporting was being accurately done which has lead to this review."

They've been in special measures since 2015. Guess they're not moving out of them anytime soon.

 

[planetgeli]

Well...an interesting choice for the first public question!

FFS.

"Can we hug our grandchildren?"

"Depends."

Jesus wept.

 

[PD58]

FFS.

"Can we hug our grandchildren?"

"Depends."

Jesus wept.

...and can be difficult to answer says Hancock - really!! Have not watched a briefing for a few days...they are still so poor. Backslapping about building a bunch of hospitals that we appear not to need yet but still no idea of any plan, testing nowhere near the target and trace & track still at the idea stage...just let's hope the select committees get on top of this.

Further, capacity it seems is all about number of beds - nothing about the stress and strain on the individual staff over the last two months, which never seems to get mentioned in the capacity context.

 

[Chilli.s]

Anything about world travel and quarantine and testing at entry yet? What with that being the way the thing spreads round the world.

 

[elbows]

Anything about world travel and quarantine and testing at entry yet? What with that being the way the thing spreads round the world.

It will become a more pressing issue when they get the domestic numbers down much below the current level, and when the next phases of response have to be activated. The issue has already come up, for example I think Scotland are pressuring to have this stuff done properly in future, and they need the UK government to get their act together on that front. So there are murmerings about it out there. But its hard for me to predict when anything will actually be fully addressed by this government, it has to be closer than it was, but perhaps still some weeks of waffle away.

edit - oh I see it did come up in the press conference questions, a somewhat similar answer to what I just said was given.

 

[elbows]

Whitty didnt want to touch Vallances '20,000 deaths would be a good outcome' with a bargepole, or provide a new figure, when it came up in questions today. Vallance was not there to squirm over it.

 

[Azrael]

While border security may be a reserved power, nothing to stop Scotland mandating 14 days quarantine right now under devolved health powers. Nor, for that matter, setting up a compulsory testing station immediately after customs.

 

[two sheds]

While border security may be a reserved power, nothing to stop Scotland mandating 14 days quarantine right now under devolved health powers. Nor, for that matter, setting up a compulsory testing station immediately after customs.

Close the border

Tamar Bridge too.

 

[Azrael]

But ask Berwick if they wish to be liberated first.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

While border security may be a reserved power, nothing to stop Scotland mandating 14 days quarantine right now under devolved health powers. Nor, for that matter, setting up a compulsory testing station immediately after customs.

There is a middle way here as well, between doing nothing and doing a Korea, which is to have mandatory testing, with as fast a turnaround as possible and of course quarantine until the results come back, and to allow people in if they come back negative. That may not be enough if you're aiming right now for total elimination, but it's enough to make a difference with suppression, R0 and reseeding the population.

 

[two sheds]

But ask Berwick if they wish to be liberated first.

Freedom for Northumbria

 

[Azrael]

There is a middle way here as well, between doing nothing and doing a Korea, which is to have mandatory testing, with as fast a turnaround as possible and of course quarantine until the results come back, and to allow people in if they come back negative. That may not be enough if you're aiming right now for total elimination, but it's enough to make a difference with suppression, R0 and reseeding the population.

Testing alone would be better than nothing, but as tests are imperfect, would also add on the quarantine period as a safety net.