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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Using the incredibly crude, yet historically surprisingly effective, measure of 'take Italy and add 14 days' is still only a couple of days out for the UK. Italy passed 20,000 hospital deaths announced on 13 April. UK passed that figure 12 days later. Given that the UK's population is 10 percent bigger than Italy's, we're still pretty much on course to be more or less 'as bad as Italy'.
 
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just looking at your curves elbows (sorry, can't help it ;)) we look a lot flatter in the tail of the "peak" so far... :(

I want one more week of that data before commenting much on that aspect. And as I said I want to look at it regionally as well, because in some countries it seems like a couple of regions bore the brunt of their epidemic wave.

The other problem is, as 2hats has said, the quality of the data and the time required for a better picture to emerge. I have a reasonable handle on the different sorts of UK death statistics, and the ones I used for those graphs are my 'least favourite' in many ways. And I am not as familiar with any specific issues with the similar data from certain other countries. But for comparisons sake at this stage, thats the data I had to use.

Total excess mortality data, which eliminates any issues with Covid-19 not being on the death certificate when it should be, are the numbers I will ultimately place most emphasis on. But its even earlier in the collection of those, so again we are still some way away from me being able to use those properly.
 
Another thing to bear in mind is that the various peaks represent quite different heights when measured per head of population. Spain's peak is the highest of all. It may look to be coming down quite sharply from there, but that is a very high high - about a third higher than the UK's high. If one country has had a particularly intense outbreak in one place, that might show itself as a sharp peak followed by a steep decline. But that might not reflect anything much to do with policy - it may simply reflect the intensity of infection in one particular area over one period of time. It's consistent with the idea that health services in Spain were overwhelmed at one particular point in certain areas, which they were. Germany, which was never overwhelmed, has peaked off in a very level way. But its peak is around 1/6 the height of Spain's peak.
 
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Same shit as when they tried peddling similar theories a week ago, and you tried to point out the distortions in their analysis. A curious poster indeed, with an agenda I intend to look into a bit.
An agenda, or just overextending by declaring that their hypotheses are facts? I think those are interesting hypotheses in that post, tbh, if they are taken only as hypotheses.
 
To be fair other XR branches seem as horrified by this as everyone else on the planet View attachment 203239
Motherboard/Vice suggests it was the work of “an anonymous white supremacist group called the Hundred-Handers, which was recently active in the UK”.

A recent Guardian article cites a report by Zinc (formerly Breakthrough - the arms-length private sector comms agency favoured by the psyops spooks of RICU) which claims “far-right organisations are using the crisis to impersonate other groups... Fake Extinction Rebellion flyers have been found in several cities in the UK proclaiming “Corona is the cure – humans are the disease”.

Edit: I see there is a thread on Zinc's ‘This is WOKE’ campaign.
 
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You said small trial here, then large scale trial abroad. I was wondering why the large one won't be here.


I heard something about this on the radio (maybe the Radio Four Worldwide coronavirus update) that said it’s possible that the background level of the virus in the U.K. isn't enough to give a good indication of how protective the vaccine would be. They need to try it in a population that’s very exposed and vulnerable, high R0 number, to get a good idea of how effectively protective it is.
 
I heard something about this on the radio (maybe the Radio Four Worldwide coronavirus update) that said it’s possible that the background level of the virus in the U.K. isn't enough to give a good indication of how protective the vaccine would be. They need to try it in a population that’s very exposed and vulnerable, high R0 number, to get a good idea of how effectively protective it is.
I touched on this in my original post (and previous) - the concern is that if isolation is effective in the UK (as we obviously would like it to be), then too few of the subjects would get exposed to the virus during the window of the trial for sound conclusions to be drawn. It's not ethical to infect them intentionally so one has to rely on chance infection in the community; you also want to get better evidence of how the vaccine performs in a natural community setting, as the population go about their everyday activities (for some notion of 'everyday', such as it is now). We have apparently driven Re down across various cohorts, so there is a distinct possibility that the UK trial alone may either take much longer to come to a conclusion or even not deliver clear results at all. To come to a credible conclusion, for the study to be rigorous, they may need more subjects in a higher Re environment.
 
Another thing to bear in mind is that the various peaks represent quite different heights when measured per head of population. Spain's peak is the highest of all. It may look to be coming down quite sharply from there, but that is a very high high - about a third higher than the UK's high. If one country has had a particularly intense outbreak in one place, that might show itself as a sharp peak followed by a steep decline. But that might not reflect anything much to do with policy - it may simply reflect the intensity of infection in one particular area over one period of time. It's consistent with the idea that health services in Spain were overwhelmed at one particular point in certain areas, which they were. Germany, which was never overwhelmed, has peaked off in a very level way. But its peak is around 1/6 the height of Spain's peak.

I've used NHS England deaths by date of death, leaving out the last 5 days of data, to graph the picture by region.

I'm a bit nervous about the graphs because this data is still incomplete in various ways, and I have to be careful to consider other possible variations between regions, eg what if reporting delays are worse in some regions, and what if the picture of who is actually admitted to hospital varies across regions?

Regardless of those concerns, you can probably still see some thing in these charts which demonstrate the scale of epidemic in different places having an impact on the subsequent shape.

Too many graphs that will make this post a bit long, so I'm going to stick them behind a spoiler tag.

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I mentioned before, and there are no graphs, just anecdotal but 2 weeks ago I was seeing as many as 2 ambulances rushing to attend per half hour but for the past week numbers have seemed more normal. Maybe even less than normal which may be mixed news as it suggests people are not calling when otherwise they would. Also nb that
a couple of times I've seen lights but not sirens during the day now so might not be alerted to some if I'm not looking windowward. Also also NB not all ambulance calls lead to admission 2 weeks ago or now.
 
All these graphs!


If you take out the "spike" on April 10th then does it appear that the number of new infections each day in the UK is just not falling?


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All these graphs!


If you take out the "spike" on April 10th then does it appear that the number of new infections each day in the UK is just not falling?


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Problem with looking at the UK's new cases is the miserable rate at which the UK has been testing. So testing is slowly ramping up now, meaning they will be finding more cases than they were. That means that a levelling off probably represents a decline in the infection rate. But we can't be at all sure cos the testing has been so badly handled.

If they ever do get to testing 100,000 per day, within a week or so of that level of testing being reached, we should hopefully start to get a true idea of where we're at from testing results. Otherwise, number of hospital admissions and deaths are better measures, albeit with a longer time lag.

This graph on hospitalisations is a decent measure of where we are with infection rates. London well down, everywhere else gradually coming down, except Northern Ireland - there may be some special local issues there: it's gone from very low to a bit worrying in the last couple of weeks.

SAThosp_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.PNG
 
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I think there is also some risk of some people getting depressed about the slow decline, in part because they are comparing it to the peak. If it is instead compared to what the deaths per day would have been expected to do if there had been no measures and changes in behaviour, the difference now compared to what it likely would have been is still staggering.
 
This graph on hospitalisations is a decent measure of where we are with infection rates. London well down, everywhere else gradually coming down, except Northern Ireland - there may be some special local issues there: it's gone from very low to a bit worrying in the last couple of weeks.

SAThosp_trans_NvBQzQNjv4BqqVzuuqpFlyLIwiB6NTmJwfSVWeZ_vEN7c6bHu2jJnT8.PNG

It matches with what was shown in my regional hospital death graphs pretty well too, so probably no need for me to repeat that exercise very often. Plus the hospital data obviously has less lag, though it does have some obvious errors from time to time (mostly missing data from specific hospitals on specific days).

I want to look into the Northern Ireland thing, I currently know nothing at all. I will want to check whether there has been a change in admissions policy there for a start I suppose.
 
It matches with what was shown in my regional hospital death graphs pretty well too, so probably no need for me to repeat that exercise very often. Plus the hospital data obviously has less lag, though it does have some obvious errors from time to time (mostly missing data from specific hospitals on specific days).

I want to look into the Northern Ireland thing, I currently know nothing at all. I will want to check whether there has been a change in admissions policy there for a start I suppose.
Aside from the NI anomaly, they are encouraging figures. At last week's zoom doctor's conference thing, there was agreement that two conditions at least need to be met for lockdown to ease. First, capacity needs to be freed within the NHS in case of a second spike, and second, a test and trace regime needs to be in place. The latter still depends on our useless government pulling its finger out, but it is at least a controllable; the former isn't directly a controllable, but is coming together.
 
The answer regarding the Northern Ireland data was contained in the notes included with the spreadsheet version of the data.

"The Northern Ireland data is a cumulative count of the number of hospital admissions. It is not comparable with the other data".

They also removed Northern Ireland from that graph today, probably just as well.
 
I imagine district nurses are pretty busy at the moment, especially as lots of their patients were discharged from hospital at the beginning of this.
Around here district nurses were desperately understaffed before this pandemic. Patients need to be seriously ill and bedridden to get cover from the service. Practice nurses in local medical centres were being used by post-op patients and recently discharged patients. Of course all this has stopped too due to the current crisis.
 
Deaths-per-Day continues to tell a fascinating story. The attached chart uses NHS England statistics from Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

  • If the broad lockdown were replaced by a policy of promptly testing everyone with symptoms, isolating positive cases and tracing and isolating their contacts, then deaths-per-day would fall much more rapidly from 25-days forward of the implementation of that policy

This is the nub of moving forward, yet given the track record to date on testing I cannot see us having a system/procedures in place that (i) quickly identifies those with symptoms and tests immediately (ii) ables us to identify contacts fast enough before possible further transmission (iii) monitors the isolation anytime soon - can you?
 
This is the nub of moving forward, yet given the track record to date on testing I cannot see us having a system/procedures in place that (i) quickly identifies those with symptoms and tests immediately (ii) ables us to identify contacts fast enough before possible further transmission (iii) monitors the isolation anytime soon - can you?

So much for learning from the German approach then :facepalm:
 
Saw some mad driving on a big dual carriageway in east London recently. High-performance BMWs, Mercs etc racing each other, jumping in and out of lanes, never seen so much of that before on one stretch. Half-empty roads are like a dream come true for them.
This is happening on residential supposedly 20mph streets in S London too. Especially but not exclusively late evening. It's mostly relatively expensive looking cars and it's mostly young men at the wheel. It's bringing out some quite strong tyre-slashing urges in me. What's particularly worrying about it is that the roads generally being quieter means that there are more vulnerable road users out and about. Kids on bikes for example. Elderly people (or anyone) crossing a road that seems quiet and at a place that seems safe until one of these cars suddenly appears at 50 or 60mph. Something very nasty is likely going to happen. I would like the police to leave sunbathers alone and take some of these drivers in and charge them. Make a load of publicity about it and make it clear it's totally socially unacceptable.
 
This is happening on residential supposedly 20mph streets in S London too. Especially but not exclusively late evening. It's mostly relatively expensive looking cars and it's mostly young men at the wheel. It's bringing out some quite strong tyre-slashing urges in me. What's particularly worrying about it is that the roads generally being quieter means that there are more vulnerable road users out and about. Kids on bikes for example. Elderly people (or anyone) crossing a road that seems quiet and at a place that seems safe until one of these cars suddenly appears at 50 or 60mph. Something very nasty is likely going to happen. I would like the police to leave sunbathers alone and take some of these drivers in and charge them. Make a load of publicity about it and make it clear it's totally socially unacceptable.

That is indeed totally unacceptable. (It seems incredible that still within living memory are times when it was considered safe for children to play on the road in many urban residential streets.)
 
planes flying over this morning seem almost back to normal pre-corona intervals, a very noticeable increase as of today - what is going on?
 
Testing run by Serco (read the thread)



I did a drive-through test on Saturday afternoon. Quite a long process, 1hr50 from joining the queue of cars to leaving. Most of the time you had to keep your car windows closed and engine off, so got pretty uncomfortable in the heat. A lot of the staff working seemed to be military.

There were four ‘checkpoints’, one to check/confirm your attendance (check ID, scan QR code from your phone), one where they issued the testing kit (in a plastic bag stuck under your wipers) and one where they gave instructions via phone on how to test yourself and dropped the test kit through your passenger side window. You then parked up in a parking bay and did the test, held the bag up to the window so someone could check you had everything in the bag correctly, then sealed the bag. This was then dropped in a bin at another checkpoint. At the exit someone was holding up a sign telling you to register the test.

a few things to note:

1. Take hand sanitiser (I had some in car already) as you need to clean hands before testing, though I think they might supply this if you don’t have some - it wasn’t specified in the attendance instruction.

2. The instruction sheet has very small text, it’s been printed at six sheets per page size, it was a struggle for me to read even with my reading glasses, which luckily I’d brought with me. There are nine pages of fairly dense instructions, separate sections for if you’re doing the test on others or having the test administered by staff. This could be more concise, and I don’t know who decided to try and get it all on a single sheet of A4.

3. There is muddled information about registration, something was mumbled at the first or second checkpoint about not needing registration instructions as I had the QR code (from applying online), yet at the end they really seemed to emphasise registering your test number. I had no details on how to do this, so had to call the enquiries number which is hard to get through on (usually cuts off after one ring). When I eventually got through and went through my details with them they said I didn’t need to do anything as I’d had the QR code (which is what I suspected).

No results or further communication from them yet, but they did say 48hrs to five days for results.

The queue of cars was much smaller when I left.

Have they given any further info on how many were tested on recent days? Wondering how that 100,000 target is looking. I reckon they might make it, as if they were in doubt about pulling it off they would have played the ‘Boris back to work’ card later in the week to distract from this failure.

(I am aware that the original ‘target’ was a bit dishonest as it was supposed to have included antibody testing with kits, which could easily be deployed at a large scale had they worked - so they’ve ended up having to work hard to get near this figure with conventional testing, which is a bonus really)
 
The instruction sheet. As mentioned, text is small, and you also have to read pages across in two rows, which isn’t immediately obvious. Wonder if someone was trying to save paper/money?

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planes flying over this morning seem almost back to normal pre-corona intervals, a very noticeable increase as of today - what is going on?
I noticed a few planes coming over yesterday. Nowhere near 'normal' levels but the first time I've seen several in the course of the day for a few weeks.
 
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