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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Heard immunity has been discarded. The CDC have changed their tune. Was 70%, then 80% then 90%, now, oh well.
ONS are saying 90%+ of people in the UK have antibodies so we should have hit heard immunity by now. ONS stats

Clearly not there, I'm guessing never will be.
 
Heard immunity has been discarded. The CDC have changed their tune. Was 70%, then 80% then 90%, now, oh well.
ONS are saying 90%+ of people in the UK have antibodies so we should have hit heard immunity by now. ONS stats

Clearly not there, I'm guessing never will be.

Until we have an effective vaccine, this plague is going to grind on.

I would think that such a vaccine will be with us within a year.
 
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Has Sasaferrato's post time-travelled from 18 months ago :hmm:
More likely just variations of opinion about what really counts as 'effective vaccine'.

The current vaccines enabled much less action to be taken against the virus in other ways, its just the UK pushed this to extremes and encouraged overly simplistic thinking. Well I say UK, England was especially bad, though I'm still not going to give a gold star to the other UK nations.

I still think its better not to think about this in terms of 'the virus going away' but rather the ramifications of the virus gradually changing due to an increasingly complex picture involving a mix of immunity through infection, repeated vaccination, increase in available treatments etc etc.
 
7 day averages for positive cases by specimen date for England, with a couple of the most recent days chopped off since those figures arent complete yet.

Screenshot 2021-11-16 at 18.46.jpg
 
Heard immunity has been discarded. The CDC have changed their tune. Was 70%, then 80% then 90%, now, oh well.
ONS are saying 90%+ of people in the UK have antibodies so we should have hit heard immunity by now. ONS stats

Clearly not there, I'm guessing never will be.

Welcome to the new high-kill, high-rage economy.
 
Until we have an effective vaccine, this plague is going to grind on.

I would think that such a vaccine will be with us within a year.
Odd.

Remember that vaccines don't prevent infection , you do.
What your asking for is a more effective immune system.
Are you perfect, and therefore is your immune system? No. So what your asking for may or also may not be possible.
 
Odd.

Remember that vaccines don't prevent infection , you do.
What your asking for is a more effective immune system.
Are you perfect, and therefore is your immune system? No. So what your asking for may or also may not be possible.

In which case, why is it possible for polio, smallpox and diphtheria?

I think you have the wrong end of the stick, vaccines enable the body to make antibodies, and to remember the intruder, so if it comes again, antibodies can be manufactured in quantity.

Measles infection generally gives lifelong immunity, you are also unlikely to have had the same cold twice. A lot of immunity is by exposure to things like the cold, societies which have not had contact with those illnesses are hit very hard if they are introduced.

To say vaccines don't prevent infection is not accurate, they don't in themselves, but the antibody stimulus they engender does.
 
In which case, why is it possible for polio, smallpox and diphtheria?

I think you have the wrong end of the stick, vaccines enable the body to make antibodies, and to remember the intruder, so if it comes again, antibodies can be manufactured in quantity.

Measles infection generally gives lifelong immunity, you are also unlikely to have had the same cold twice. A lot of immunity is by exposure to things like the cold, societies which have not had contact with those illnesses are hit very hard if they are introduced.

To say vaccines don't prevent infection is not accurate, they don't in themselves, but the antibody stimulus they engender does.
All this. And there is precedent for vaccines which need to be "topped up" - tetanus being one obvious example, not counting 'flu, which is more about the variety of strains of 'flu out there, and their tendency - like Covid - to mutate, and, at least in the case of 'flu viruses, "escape" the protection of the vaccine by failing to trigger an immune response.

It's odd how so many people think as if the whole world of vaccine development is something that only just happened...
 
All this. And there is precedent for vaccines which need to be "topped up" - tetanus being one obvious example, not counting 'flu, which is more about the variety of strains of 'flu out there, and their tendency - like Covid - to mutate, and, at least in the case of 'flu viruses, "escape" the protection of the vaccine by failing to trigger an immune response.

It's odd how so many people think as if the whole world of vaccine development is something that only just happened...

Yep, tetanus, BCG, TABT... Yellow Fever however is now recognised as a one off. (one of or one off?)
 
The new 'Delta+ variant' appears to be even more infectious than the original Delta variant, and now accounts for over 1 in 10 cases in the UK, according to the latest REACT study, that's the bad news.

On the plus side it appears to be less likely to cause symptoms.

A mutation of the Covid-19 Delta variant which has been found to be more infectious is now responsible for one in 10 Covid cases in England.

The latest results from a REACT-1 study by Imperial University found that the AY.4.2 variant, which is more infectious but less likely to cause symptoms, is growing at a rate of 2.8 per cent a day.

Tests carried out between 19 October and 5 November on more than 100,000 people in England showed that 11.8 per cent carried the variant.

However, the data showed only a third of those with the AY.4.2 variant had the common Covid symptoms of fever, persistent cough or a loss or change in taste or smell compared to 46 per cent of people with the original form of the Delta variant.

They were also less likely to show any other symptoms.

 
Daily hospital admissions/diagnoses for the regions of England.

I've not dug into positive cases by region recently but I believe that there are the expected parallels with this hospital data, eg North East showing the most obvious declines and London and the South East flatter or showing more signs of renewed growth. Probably in part due to what happened earlier in this wave in the different regions, eg the North East maybe now has a bit less remaining potential for the virus. But need to take into account things like variations in half term timing too, and the fact the North East is coming down from a higher level in the first place.

Screenshot 2021-11-19 at 18.09.jpg
 
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