Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[_Russ_]

Meanwhile, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, which provides advice to the government, said

If infection rates and hospitalisations went down it would be "very encouraging", but if they started going up it would be "a different situation completely".

Thank Fuck we have these highly paid knowledgeable experts to explain this shit

 

[elbows]

I like Shaun Lintern, especially when he is not impressed by the summer situation and bullshit framing.

 

[iona]

Topcat probably accounts for a few thousand of the differences

Topcat's vaccine info probably has its own separate database spreadsheet by now

 

[existentialist]

Topcat's vaccine info probably has its own separate database spreadsheet by now

It might run out of rows

 

[2hats]

Surprise! Imperial REACT reports highest prevalence yet seen. Mainly driven by schoolchildren.

REACT study records highest coronavirus prevalence yet | Imperial News | Imperial College London

New data from the Imperial-led REACT coronavirus monitoring programme reveal the highest number of infections since the study began in May 2020.

www.imperial.ac.uk

The prevalence rose across ages and in almost all regions from September to October 2021, with infections estimated to have been highest on 19/20 October, consistent with Pillar 2 testing data. However, the latest data show a recent fall with a reproduction number (R) below 1. This is similar to the pattern of infections observed this time last year when infections dropped at half term, after which they rapidly grew again. However at the time, the prevalence of infection was lower than current rates, at 1.30%.

 

[zahir]

Thread from Deepti Gurdasani

 

[StoneRoad]

Yeah, that's not a surprise.
When OH was teaching full-time, the two weeks after half-term always seemed to be peak cold/flu season.

Taking this drop in cases over half-term as the calm before the storm ...

I'm hoping for my booster in a couple or three of weeks, so until that's in my arm and my system has responded, I'm taking things very, very carefully.

 

[rubbershoes]

What utter crap. The dead end of 'progressive' politics. Someone who endorsed years of attacks on the working class gets a pass, or even tributes, because he did not support Brexit. Vile is absolutely accurate to describe someone who repeatedly voted to push workers into poverty while enriching his class.

The anti-working class nature of the progressive alliance/die-hard remainiacs in full view again.

Er.. wrong thread

 

[elbows]

I've put this sort of data in my posts before, because I was unhappy that the media were mostly focussing only on the unvaccinated.

Latest deaths in recent weeks by vaccine status: (from https://assets.publishing.service.g...31157/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-44.pdf )



Anyway now that there is focus on not enough people getting boosters, it is no surprise to suddenly see the media paying attention to this sort of data, eg:

With life slowly returning to normal in the UK, and most restrictions lifted, here are some statistics that might seem surprising.

Over the last month, 4,409 people over 50 were admitted to English hospitals after testing positive for Covid - despite having two doses of a vaccine. And 2,148 men and women in that age group lost their lives.

Will complacency damage Covid booster rollout?

Millions of over-50s and others have had a third jab - but could they have been rolled out more quickly?

www.bbc.co.uk

Those stats should not actually be surprising but I'm sure they are to people who had been relying on the media to paint the picture.

 

[souljacker]

This weeks Zoe video from Tim Spector is suggesting we are past the peak of the latest wave and suggests this was the last peak of 2021.



Good news I suppose but deaths and hospitalisations are still high.

 

[StoneRoad]

Actually, I think this dip in cases, and hospitalisations and deaths, is probably a temporary artefact of schools being on half-term. Especially as the autumn half-term in schools can be spread out over several weeks.

eg Scottish schools - pupils off 8th to 19th October.
vs
NE England [Durham, Gateshead & Newcastle] - broke up 22nd October & go back on 1st November.

These are the official LEA dates, but "INSET", occasional days and being an academy or a private school that has freedom to set their own holidays can alter the dates. Some years Gateshead & Newcastle use non-overlapping but adjacent weeks.

I am fully expecting the cases to stay at the currently unacceptable high level, and possibly get a lot worse once the "half-term affect wears off ...

Unless the number of the various vaccinations increases significantly. [I hope the aim is for at least 90% double jabbed, plus the booster/3rd jabs well before the winter solstice]

 

[elbows]

Last time he did a good news video featuring happy predictions he then had to spend subsequent months making gloomy videos because he initially thought the arrival of Delta wouldnt even be a proper wave but rather 'only a ripple'. Not that people here ever seem to post his bad news videos, only the ones that predict good news that I then have to pick apart.

Anyway he isnt the only person suggesting that sort of picture is what will happen next. And what he said in that video is not as mind-numbingly stupid as his 'only a ripple video' from months ago. These predictions could turn out to be accurate, although I'm certainly not banking on it.

I suppose I'll have a quick and somewhat sloppy attempt to explain what probably lies behind such predictions, because the way that things have oscillated around for months means that we certainly cannot take a drop in cases for a short period to be a clear indicator on its own that things will keep going in that direction, especially when some of the drop is half-term related:

I suppose they are basing their opinions on some or all of the following assumptions about factors:

People being a bit more careful again since the mood music changed and the threat seemed more real again due to personally hearing of more people they know getting infected.
Holidays etc temporarily breaking the momentum of the virus in a way that it wont bounce back from straight away.
Better immunity picture due to millions of people already having caught the virus in recent months, removing themselves from the pool of potential new victims.
The booster programme.
Various modelling exercises seem to indicate a sustained drop coming if certain variables match what they fed into the models, but there is more variation when it comes to whether and when there will be another peak, eg over Christmas/New year.

Anyway like I said they might be right, but I can only be fully convinced by what actually happens, and I still need some more weeks before my own opinion starts to firm up on this as more real world data comes in after the half-term effect has had a full chance to wear off.

 

[ddraig]

So my self isolation meant to be up tonight tomorrow but had a text from track and trace saying thanks for isolating until the 9th?!? Which is from date of PCR not symptoms

 

[Elpenor]

You can now book your booster online once you are 5 months after your second jab.
You can only book it for a date 6 months after jab 2 still.

Presumably England only.

You need to start your booking again - Book a coronavirus vaccination - NHS

www.nhs.uk

 

[RileyOBlimey]

You can now book your booster online once you are 5 months after your second jab.
You can only book it for a date 6 months after jab 2 still.

Presumably England only.

You need to start your booking again - Book a coronavirus vaccination - NHS

www.nhs.uk

Cheers for that.

 

[Mation]

You can now book your booster online once you are 5 months after your second jab.
You can only book it for a date 6 months after jab 2 still.

Presumably England only.

You need to start your booking again - Book a coronavirus vaccination - NHS

www.nhs.uk

Thank you. I last checked yesterday, and was told I can't book yet. Then saw the BBC news item about it, saying it would be possible for me* to book from Monday. However, I just tried again, based on your post, and successfully booked for next week.

* I'm an 'over-50', and will be 6-months post dose 2 in a couple of weeks.

E2a: my booked date is about a week shy of 6 months.

 

[miss direct]

You can now book your booster online once you are 5 months after your second jab.
You can only book it for a date 6 months after jab 2 still.

Presumably England only.

You need to start your booking again - Book a coronavirus vaccination - NHS

www.nhs.uk

Thank you very much for sharing that. I'm most likely going abroad early next year to work for a while and would really like to have had my booster. I'll book as soon as the five months are up.

 

[Wilf]

I was just about to post the booking link above. I've just used it and managed to get a booster next Saturday, which is 3 or 4 days less than 6 months. Can't wait to get it, as a boost to actual immunity but also to self confidence for going out and doing things.

 

[20Bees]

You can now book your booster online once you are 5 months after your second jab.
You can only book it for a date 6 months after jab 2 still.

Presumably England only.

You need to start your booking again - Book a coronavirus vaccination - NHS

www.nhs.uk

Many thanks for that, I tried about a week ago and couldn’t proceed. Booked for 1 December, my second dose of AZ was on 23 May and I’m glad to get the booster before silly season at work (supermarket checkout) really kicks off with seasonal temps and students back for the holidays. The regular youngsters have been quickest to abandon their masks so it’ll be interesting to see if those returning for the first time since summer will still wear theirs. Customers often comment that mask use, in both staff and customers, and frequent cleaning, is noticeably better than at any other store in the area, which is good, but we are soon to follow the other stores and introduce cleaning stations for customers to do their own trolley and basket handles. We’re told that the Perspex screens at checkouts will remain at least until the end of the year, we hope they’re permanent!

 

[Sunray]

Actually, I think this dip in cases, and hospitalisations and deaths, is probably a temporary artefact of schools being on half-term. Especially as the autumn half-term in schools can be spread out over several weeks.

eg Scottish schools - pupils off 8th to 19th October.
vs
NE England [Durham, Gateshead & Newcastle] - broke up 22nd October & go back on 1st November.

These are the official LEA dates, but "INSET", occasional days and being an academy or a private school that has freedom to set their own holidays can alter the dates. Some years Gateshead & Newcastle use non-overlapping but adjacent weeks.

I am fully expecting the cases to stay at the currently unacceptable high level, and possibly get a lot worse once the "half-term affect wears off ...

Unless the number of the various vaccinations increases significantly. [I hope the aim is for at least 90% double jabbed, plus the booster/3rd jabs well before the winter solstice]

There is going to be a point where all the school children have had it, so immune, natural immunity lasts quite a while.
Can't keep passing it around so expect it to start coming down.

 

[elbows]

BBC articles about where we are at are a lot better when not written by Nick Triggle. And they seem to have been using him less for this sort of thing recently.

Its still a bit surreal seeing Woolhouse quotes that are sensible and cautious.

Where are we at with Covid?

There is a constant stream of data around the virus - so where do we stand at the moment?

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[elbows]

Wales got there first in terms of using Christmas in their rhetoric, but I see Javid has now done the same.

Covid: Ten million boosters now given in UK but more needed - PM

It is vital people get their "lifesaving" third jab to ensure protection in winter, Boris Johnson says.

www.bbc.co.uk

Includes some indication of why they are bothered by the current situation, in that the article says about 30% of over-80s havent had the booster.

 

[StoneRoad]

That 30% of over 80s still to have their boosters would be doubly worrying if they had had AZ for their first two jabs.

 

[Weller]

ok so not really sure right place but Im confused about self isolating rules now and not much help from arsey workplace only been there 2 months
basicly last week picked up a "bug" bad chest really bad cough last wednesday that was obv going around in workplace despite me wearing mask and keeping distance from idiots because already had a bad case of covid year ago home lateral l flow test was negative wed am and Im double jabbed
Told owner was getting worse so going home to get pcr tested and self isolate , for family and workmates safety as well as my own as was near constant cough something I rarely get then left despite them being unhappy about what I thought was rules and right thing to do , thurs morning was much worse so didnt go out or get booked in for pcr test until sat morning , still rough now and coughing fits little energy etc but have had negative nhs pcr test back last hour , instructions are not clear on if i can now go out or when should

Anyone help with confusing gov info and if I can or should go out or have to keep self isolating
workplace dont seem to care how many get ill but obv dont pay whilst off

Please feel free to move or delete if in wrong thread etc

 

[Artaxerxes]

Covid has really cemented my hate for Christmas tbh.

 

[Cloo]

As far as I can tell, the government's 'plan B' for COVID is no more than people who are being careful and are able to do are doing at the moment - wearing a mask in public indoor places and not going into work (which is what I'm doing). And those who aren't doing it are unlikely to start doing either again, I think there's just now a critical mass against even bothering - not actively 'not complying', just government messaging and enforcement is so laissez faire that people just... can't even.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

ok so not really sure right place but Im confused about self isolating rules now and not much help from arsey workplace only been there 2 months
basicly last week picked up a "bug" bad chest really bad cough last wednesday that was obv going around in workplace despite me wearing mask and keeping distance from idiots because already had a bad case of covid year ago home lateral l flow test was negative wed am and Im double jabbed
Told owner was getting worse so going home to get pcr tested and self isolate , for family and workmates safety as well as my own as was near constant cough something I rarely get then left despite them being unhappy about what I thought was rules and right thing to do , thurs morning was much worse so didnt go out or get booked in for pcr test until sat morning , still rough now and coughing fits little energy etc but have had negative nhs pcr test back last hour , instructions are not clear on if i can now go out or when should

Anyone help with confusing gov info and if I can or should go out or have to keep self isolating
workplace dont seem to care how many get ill but obv dont pay whilst off

Please feel free to move or delete if in wrong thread etc

Pretty sure that the current UK rules are:
if double vaccinated you only need to self isolate after a positive PCR test

 

[Mation]

ok so not really sure right place but Im confused about self isolating rules now and not much help from arsey workplace only been there 2 months
basicly last week picked up a "bug" bad chest really bad cough last wednesday that was obv going around in workplace despite me wearing mask and keeping distance from idiots because already had a bad case of covid year ago home lateral l flow test was negative wed am and Im double jabbed
Told owner was getting worse so going home to get pcr tested and self isolate , for family and workmates safety as well as my own as was near constant cough something I rarely get then left despite them being unhappy about what I thought was rules and right thing to do , thurs morning was much worse so didnt go out or get booked in for pcr test until sat morning , still rough now and coughing fits little energy etc but have had negative nhs pcr test back last hour , instructions are not clear on if i can now go out or when should

Anyone help with confusing gov info and if I can or should go out or have to keep self isolating
workplace dont seem to care how many get ill but obv dont pay whilst off

Please feel free to move or delete if in wrong thread etc

[Withdrawn] [Withdrawn] Stay at home: guidance for households with possible or confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) infection

www.gov.uk

If you have a negative COVID-19 PCR test result after being tested because you had symptoms

If your PCR test result is negative but you still have symptoms, you may have another viral illness such as a cold, flu or a stomach bug. You should stay at home until you feel well and for at least 2 more days if you have had diarrhoea or vomiting. Seek medical attention if you are concerned about your symptoms.

You can stop isolating as long as:

• you are well and have not had diarrhoea or vomiting for at least 2 days
• no one else in your household has symptoms
• no one else in your household has tested positive for COVID-19
• you have not been advised by NHS Test and Trace that you are legally required to self-isolate.

That says keep isolating if you're still unwell, even after a negative PCR test.

 

[elbows]

I dont have a HSJ subscription so I cant actually read these articles but I felt the need to post the headlines anyway.

‘This is far worse than January – the vaccine hasn’t saved us this time’

"We should all be rated inadequate." The call HSJ received on Sunday lunchtime from one of the most respected chief executives in the NHS carried an air of desperation.

www.hsj.co.uk

Leaked recording of ‘scared’ CEO says major hospital ‘ceasing to function’

The chief executive of a major teaching trust has told an internal meeting he is 'anxious and scared' that its main acute site is under so much pressure it 'is ceasing to function as a hospital'.

www.hsj.co.uk

 

[SpookyFrank]

I dont have a HSJ subscription so I cant actually read these articles but I felt the need to post the headlines anyway.

‘This is far worse than January – the vaccine hasn’t saved us this time’

"We should all be rated inadequate." The call HSJ received on Sunday lunchtime from one of the most respected chief executives in the NHS carried an air of desperation.

www.hsj.co.uk

Leaked recording of ‘scared’ CEO says major hospital ‘ceasing to function’

The chief executive of a major teaching trust has told an internal meeting he is 'anxious and scared' that its main acute site is under so much pressure it 'is ceasing to function as a hospital'.

www.hsj.co.uk

Gimme a sec I'll try and c&p them.

E2a: Seems I only have access up to 2017. As you were.