Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Aladdin]

Yep. We are heading for absolute disaster.

Local hospital here had 178 people on TROLLEYS in A and E on Sunday.
There are 7 general beds left in the second biggest hospital in Munster.
We are completely fucked.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

All this talk of who's taking the most tests. Or trying to compare with this time last year, shouldn't the first metric be percentage of those tested who turned out to be positive?

Then one would have one number that "works' across all times and places.

Does this happen? Have I been missing it?

I don't think it would, no.

That would work if the testing was allocated by random sampling. In reality though it's way more complicated than that, most notably people getting tested because they actually feel ill, then beyond that all sorts of reasons - proximity to others who have it, job roles, travellers, people going to concerts, self selecting safety-first screenings, etc etc. I'm not sure it would even be possible to pick out reliable figures out of all that lot to be honest but certainly a simple % positive figure wouldn't do it.

 

[_Russ_]

Music venues are slightly different here in Ireland .. they seem to not have a difficulty with covid passports.

Nightclubs on the other hand have been doing nothing BUT whinging about having to check covid passports and saying the restrictions are "unworkable".
It's pathetic.
They (owners) whined about being closed despite being paid well by gov covid supports.
Now they can open.. albeit with a number of restrictions such as
..no bar queues...table service only...masks on when moving about in the club. But masks off when seated with your group or dancing. I dont get why its ok to dance on a packed dancefloor while unmasked? But that's another thing.

Their understanding of the word "disaster " comes from having to possibly employ extra staff!!
The nightclubs opened last Friday for the first time since March 2020. Queues were waiting 2 hours to get into them. They have been PACKED. They're also charging more for entry. I am 100% certain the owners are taking in more money than ever.

So fuck them. And their ignorant pathetic reference to their "disaster".

11 ICU beds left in the entire country.
That's the real disaster.

TBF quite a number of restaurant and Cafe owners are the same type of character,
motivated by the same things and with the same priorities just a bit more considered in who they employ at the Coal face

 

[kabbes]

All this talk of who's taking the most tests. Or trying to compare with this time last year, shouldn't the first metric be percentage of those tested who turned out to be positive?

Then one would have one number that "works' across all times and places.

Does this happen? Have I been missing it?

That only works if the population being tested is randomly sampled as a cross section of the whole society. The moment you start having criteria for who you test, you introduce bias into the statistics

 

[kabbes]

I don't think it would, no.

That would work if the testing was allocated by random sampling. In reality though it's way more complicated than that, most notably people getting tested because they actually feel ill, then beyond that all sorts of reasons - proximity to others who have it, job roles, travellers, people going to concerts, self selecting safety-first screenings, etc etc. I'm not sure it would even be possible to pick out reliable figures out of all that lot to be honest but certainly a simple % positive figure wouldn't do it.

Oh snap, I hadn’t seen this

 

[elbows]

The ONS survey that leads to weekly headlines such as '1 in 50 people were estimated to have had Covid last week in England' is based on random population sampling. There is inevitably still bias because some people are more likely to agree to participate than others, but its still something useful.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) in private residential households in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, including regional and age breakdowns. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, UK Health...

www.ons.gov.uk

As for percentage positivity, plenty of the charts in the weekly surveillance report involve that measurement. Its a useful guide to trends and whether enough testing is being done.

National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2021 to 2022 season

National influenza and COVID-19 report, monitoring COVID-19 activity, seasonal flu and other seasonal respiratory illnesses.

www.gov.uk

And as I've said many times before, I also compensate for any changes in attitudes to testing etc by relying more on hospital admission stats. Only have to wait about a week to see the positive test figure trends show up in hospital admissions data.

 

[bimble]

This NHS test and trace ‘failed its main objective’, says spending watchdog

Says that more than 60 % of people who experienced covid symptoms never got tested.
That is a huge number.

 

[sojourner]

Oh ffs, my big brother's got it now Thank god he had his AF all sorted a few months back, and his asthma pretty much under control He's been uber cautious too. My best mate's only just recovering from 2 weeks in bed with it too - 10 years younger than me and double jabbed.

 

[Carvaged]

RIP Nanna, who died today. She'd had Covid twice and survived that and been vaccinated, but ultimately lost her marbles completely during the lockdown isolation in the care homes, which hit her bad and caused her immense distress and sadness. They'd just locked down once more yesterday due to another infected patient taken in from hospital, but let us in to see her just before she went.

 

[Sue]

Sorry to hear that Carvaged. Look after yourself. X

 

[teuchter]

Case rates now appear to be suggesting some decline. And hospital admissions giving the impression of levelling off.

The numbers are still quite wildly different in different parts of the UK though.

 

[manji]

Anecdotal of course and take it as you want.But I was speaking to a Professional involved in the COVID effort and he was saying that the authorities are expecting to see a drop in cases as the vaccination, testing, etc. levels out.
The other comment was most people who would have died from it come off the reporting

 

[Aladdin]

Sorry for your loss Carvaged .. very sad

 

[Elpenor]

Sorry to hear that Carvaged

Someone on another forum I frequent passed away today too.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Case rates now appear to be suggesting some decline. And hospital admissions giving the impression of levelling off.

The numbers are still quite wildly different in different parts of the UK though.

View attachment 294552View attachment 294553View attachment 294554

7-day average of reported new cases are down -9.8%, but tests conducted are down -8.3%, school half-term in play.

 

[elbows]

The rhetoric from the government of Wales is especially heavy, and not without good reason

Scrapped Covid rules could be brought back to allow Wales to have a "normal" Christmas, First Minister Mark Drakeford has warned.
New measures are already being brought in to tackle Wales' high Covid rates - the worst in the UK.
Covid passes will be extended to cinemas, theatres and concert halls from 15 November as part of the plans.
Pubs, restaurants and cafes might also require passes if infections climb, amid a "wider repertoire of actions".

At Friday's coronavirus briefing, Mr Drakeford said about 2,000 cases of a new and possibly more transmissible form of the Delta variant have been identified in Wales.
The infection rate in Wales is currently the highest it has ever been, Mr Drakeford added.

"This is largely being driven by very high levels of infections in younger people and among family members and close contacts at home," he said.
"Mistakes at a private laboratory in England, which resulted in thousands of people wrongly being told their tests were negative may have further fuelled the growth in cases in south east Wales, where rates are highest."
He added: "All this means the pandemic is far from over."

This scenario also provide new opportunities to further note the absurdities of state systems and their labels. Being at 'alert level zero' when hitting record breaking numbers is quite the spectacle.

"We need to take more action now to strengthen the measures we have in place at alert level zero to prevent coronavirus spreading even further and more people falling seriously ill," said Mr Drakeford.
"None of us wants to see a return to restrictions but if rates continue to rise, the cabinet will have no choice but to consider raising the alert level at the next review."

Covid: Wales' restrictions could return to save Christmas

Cinemagoers will need Covid passes next month, but Mark Drakeford says he may have to go further.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[StoneRoad]

"Bingo" 'save christmas' was the last buzzword on the diagonal for my bingo card !

 

[teuchter]

The ONS survey that leads to weekly headlines such as '1 in 50 people were estimated to have had Covid last week in England' is based on random population sampling. There is inevitably still bias because some people are more likely to agree to participate than others, but its still something useful.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) in private residential households in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, including regional and age breakdowns. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, UK Health...

www.ons.gov.uk

As for percentage positivity, plenty of the charts in the weekly surveillance report involve that measurement. Its a useful guide to trends and whether enough testing is being done.

National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports: 2021 to 2022 season

National influenza and COVID-19 report, monitoring COVID-19 activity, seasonal flu and other seasonal respiratory illnesses.

www.gov.uk

And as I've said many times before, I also compensate for any changes in attitudes to testing etc by relying more on hospital admission stats. Only have to wait about a week to see the positive test figure trends show up in hospital admissions data.

Interesting to look at the numbers by age. It's clear that it's not people in their 20s and 30s I should be avoiding right now.



And this visualisation over time is quite good:

Coronavirus (Covid-19) Infections by Age and Country

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[elbows]

Some Covid booster doses brought forward

Care home residents are among those able to get their their Covid vaccine sooner.

www.bbc.co.uk

Most people will still get their third dose of a coronavirus vaccine six months after their second.
But a change in clinical guidelines in the UK means some - such as care home residents - will be able to get their next dose after a five month gap.
The aim is to ensure more people's immune systems are topped up before winter.
The concern is even small dips in vulnerable people's immunity will affect the NHS's ability to cope this winter.

Also contains this info:

The government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) estimates the protection against needing hospital treatment for a Covid infection:

• falls from 95% three months after getting the second doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca to 75% after six months
• falls from 99% three months after getting the second doses of Pfizer/BioNTech to 90% after six months

The SAGE document featuring this and other figures in various tables is here, from the batch of documents released a little over a week ago:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1029794/S1411_VEEP_Vaccine_Effectiveness_Table_.pdf

When it comes to deaths rather than hospitalisations, it says:

For the AstraZeneca vaccine, less of a reduction in protetction is observed against mortality than against symptomatic disease and hospitalisation. At 0- 3 months protection is 95%, falling to 90% at 4-6 months and 80% for 6+ months. For Pfizer, effectiveness is estimates at 99%, 95% and 90% for the same periods. For Moderna data are not yet available. (New update) .

And its probably worth noting this detail too:

Waning against severe disease, including hospitalisations and deaths, is much more limited and is most evident in older age groups and clinical risk groups from around 20 weeks following the second dose. For these groups, the actual level of protection is likely to be lower than the figures presented in the consensus VE table, which are for the population at large.

 

[2hats]

Interestingly, studies are currently underway to investigate if vaccination then infection yields a similar "supercharged" hybrid immunity response as that arising from infection then vaccination.

Some initial data on this here. TLDR: yes, immunity appears to be boosted to degrees (though beware confounders, small sample size, insert usual preprint disclaimer).

 

[Cat Fan]

Interesting to look at the numbers by age. It's clear that it's not people in their 20s and 30s I should be avoiding right now.

View attachment 294672

And this visualisation over time is quite good:

Coronavirus (Covid-19) Infections by Age and Country

www.ons.gov.uk

Only if they are teachers. My friend who is a teacher is basically running a testing centre at his school because so many are testing positive.

 

[_Russ_]

It's clear that it's not people in their 20s and 30s I should be avoiding right now

I wouldnt be too sure about those figures, its an age group that has less chance of being symptomatic and hence less likely to be getting a test

 

[ddraig]

Fuckng positive LFT before event tonight!! :/
off for proper test

 

[Cat Fan]

I think it's the sweet spot of being recently Pfizer vaccinated, +less likely to come into contact with secondary school age children, where the virus is spreading fastest

 

[teuchter]

I think it's the sweet spot of being recently Pfizer vaccinated, +less likely to come into contact with secondary school age children, where the virus is spreading fastest

And possibly having had their own peak in infections a few months back.

 

[elbows]

I wouldnt be too sure about those figures, its an age group that has less chance of being symptomatic and hence less likely to be getting a test

The data in question is based on random household sampling, so not having symptoms isnt a factor. The ONS get everyone in the participating households to take a test.

And via the more traditional testing route, plenty in that age group did show up very clearly some months ago. Numbers in that age group fell off a cliff once the Euros were over and they havent mounted a very strong comeback since.

However I would caution that even in the age groups which show lower rates in the ONS survey, that still translates to plenty of people. I havent done my graphs based on age groups of people testing positive via normal testing recently, but I will at some point in the next 2 or 3 days.

 

[_Russ_]

Thanks Elbows, yea the Random testing regime means the figures have more validity than I was thinking

 

[Dogsauce]

Some initial data on this here. TLDR: yes, immunity appears to be boosted to degrees (though beware confounders, small sample size, insert usual preprint disclaimer).

Just to make sure, I’m doing two shots/infection/two shots. Doubt there will be numbers for that.

 

[Dogsauce]

Only if they are teachers. My friend who is a teacher is basically running a testing centre at his school because so many are testing positive.

My sister in law has just started doing supply work again after a few years off for childcare.

To me, people doing supply work at the moment in Covid-riddled schools are basically like those people they got to clear the debris off the roof at Chernobyl.

 

[Chilli.s]

My sister in law has just started doing supply work again after a few years off for childcare.

To me, people doing supply work at the moment in Covid-riddled schools are basically like those people they got to clear the debris off the roof at Chernobyl.

Without the high pay rates