Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Given how wound up I get by the absolute bullshit myths that are repeated to this day about how well the NHS coped and gave care to those who needed it, I am pleased that such shit does not sound like its a feature of this book:

Failures of State review – never forget the Johnson government's Covid disasters

A damning assessment, by investigative journalists Jonathan Calvert and George Arbuthnott, of the handling of the pandemic by the British government

www.theguardian.com

There are lesser-known horrors in the catalogue too. The authors are keen to explode the comforting narrative that the NHS coped with the pandemic even at its peak, and that everyone got the care they needed. They report that some hospitals were forced to ration treatment according to a set of guidelines that struck doctors and nurses as “Nazi-like”, denying intensive care to those who scored too high on three metrics: age, frailty and underlying conditions. Whole categories of people – the old, the weak, the disabled – were denied the critical care that might have saved their lives.

Incredibly, the guidelines were so rigorously enforced that in one Midlands hospital, dozens of intensive care beds lay empty, kept free for younger, fitter patients, while those over-75 were left dying on regular wards, without even being offered non-invasive ventilation. It meant that of the patients who died at the height of the pandemic in April, just 10% had received any intensive care.

I shall probably get that book. Hopefully it also covers the number of people who didnt even seek NHS care, or were put off by 111 or otherwise denied admission.

 

[Supine]

Reusable masks anyone? What about this? It's FFP2. Freedom1 FFP2 Graphene Protective Reusable Face Mask featuring Nanane™ and Polygrene™ You wear it ten times then spray it with graphene. You don't wash it. The mask is £9.60, and so is the graphene Graphene Mask Sanitiser Spray 100ml

My spider senses are tingling tbh. It’s an expensive spray (not actually graphene) and wouldn’t be needed if you just left a used mask to sit around for a few days. Also the CE attachment on the website isn’t actually a CE Declaration of Conformity as far as i can see.

 

[miss direct]

I always spray my reusable masks with an anti bacterial thingy and then hang them up.

 

[StoneRoad]

Given how wound up I get by the absolute bullshit myths that are repeated to this day about how well the NHS coped and gave care to those who needed, I am pleased that such shit does not sound like its a feature of this book:

Failures of State review – never forget the Johnson government's Covid disasters

A damning assessment, by investigative journalists Jonathan Calvert and George Arbuthnott, of the handling of the pandemic by the British government

www.theguardian.com

I shall probably get that book. Hopefully it also covers the number of people who didnt even seek NHS care, or were put of by 111 or otherwise denied admission.

Bloody scandalous situation.
Wish we could have a 'class action' to sue the government for murder or, at the very least "corporate manslaughter", over their (mis-)handling of the pandemic. Right back to the start, or January 2020 ...

 

[David Clapson]

My spider senses are tingling tbh. It’s an expensive spray (not actually graphene) and wouldn’t be needed if you just left a used mask to sit around for a few days. Also the CE attachment on the website isn’t actually a CE Declaration of Conformity as far as i can see.

I see what you mean. The wording is confusing. The spray is some sort of chlorine. And the testing was done in Shanghai. https://files.elfsightcdn.com/1ab14...abf1/48846c04-23ef-450e-878b-30d23d9f59d6.pdf

 

[StoneRoad]

I have several decent ffp2 masks in use, in a rotation. I don't go out every day, though.

Every couple of cycles, or if I've been in a crowded area or with unknown people, the mask gets a spray with a decent quality disinfectant and left to dry. After a few cycles of this, I'll bin [burn] the mask and get a new one out of the box.

I was doing similar with the cheap "single use" ones, before I was able to buy the FFP2 ones - usually I paired them with a cloth over-mask. They were sprayed and left to dry, I had a row of nearly a dozen at one point, to allow plenty of time between uses. This was during the shortage era. Rather than throw these in the bin, after a few cycles, I would put them in a carrier bag and then burn them [our workshop wood-burner is very useful, it gets remarkably hot at times, & then it will get used for such disposals, before reloading with the normal fuel.

Gloves, the same.
Although I tend to rely more on hand-washing / sanitising than gloves, unless I'm in an area with a very high case rate.

 

[xenon]

I’m wondering how dedicated everybody is in their mask wearing? I will admit to not being so 100%, 100% of the time. I have exceptions:

• On a train in the morning, I sometimes have bought a coffee, because it’s early and I’m fed up. I can’t sensibly drink with a mask on, so I don’t put it on until I’ve finished. There is mitigation — the train is mostly empty until long after I’ve finished. But others on the train will observe me not wearing a mask at that time
• I get dry eye unless I wear moisture-retaining eyewear. If I wear mask and eyewear, the glasses immediately steam up. Normally, I prioritise mask. However, on the train coming back in the evening, I normally have pretty sore eyes and I may well wear eyewear instead of mask.
• In our office, literally zero people wear a mask ever. Across 7 floors of people. What would be the point of me wearing one?
• If I’m going into a cafe, I generally won’t go through the charade of wearing a mask to the table and then taking it off.

Those are the things that spring to mind but there may be other occasions, such as if I’ve thought my mask was in my pocket when I went out but it actually wasn’t.

Is this partial dedication to wearing a mask unusual? Surely not. It can’t all be people who either refuse to wear one or treat it with religious devotion.

Pretty similar.

I had a double take moment getting a coffee yesterday as the staff were masked / visored. I was coming in from outside and wanted to sit outside. The door was wide open. I wasn't gonna put a mask on for the few minutes I ordered but felt sorry for the staff having to all day. I did clean my hands with sanitiser at the counter before paying.

 

[xenon]

QQ. Boosters are only for people 50 and over or with a condition that makes them vunrible right? Only they keep talking about this 6 month thing but omiting the other criteria.

 

[StoneRoad]

QQ. Boosters are only for people 50 and over or with a condition that makes them vunrible right? Only they keep talking about this 6 month thing but omiting the other criteria.

Yes, that's the case at present. IE - six months [190 days ?] from second dose for over 50s or in a vulnerable category.

 

[cupid_stunt]

QQ. Boosters are only for people 50 and over or with a condition that makes them vunrible right?

Yes.

Only they keep talking about this 6 month thing but omiting the other criteria.

No one in good health & under 50 should be anywhere near to the 6 month point ATM, so I don't think reports need to keep repeating the criteria, especially as it is set out clearly on the booking website, which doesn't allow people to book a booster unless they are entitled to one.

 

[xenon]

OK but I know of at least 2 people under 50, who had theirs 6 months ago due to occupation.

 

[cupid_stunt]

OK but I know of at least 2 people under 50, who had theirs 6 months ago due to occupation.

Certain occupations make people more vulnerable to infection, such as health & care workers.

 

[xenon]

Certain occupations make people more vulnerable to infection, such as health & care workers.

Fair point. They should be getting their booster soon I imagine. Will ask just out of curiosity next time we speak.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This is from the Torygraph, so I am sceptical about the claim they are aware of other unpublished models suggesting cases will come down without introducing 'Plan B', but the one they quote from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is certainly interesting.

Of course, there's always several models, with a whole range of possible outcomes, but it would be nice if this one has got it right.

Covid cases will plummet in November even without Plan B restrictions, modelling seen by the Government suggests.

Ministers are thought to be holding back from introducing restrictions such as compulsory face masks, working from home and vaccine passports, after seeing projections from several groups which show infections declining rapidly within weeks.

One model, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, suggests that cases will soon peak before falling steeply in the winter months, even without Plan B.

The Telegraph understands that other unpublished models seen by the Government have also shown similar imminent drops, with experts indicating that cases could fall to around 5,000 cases a day before Christmas.

John Edmunds, Professor in the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the school, a member of Sage and the sub-group SPI-M, said: “When we were doing the work about two weeks ago, the Health Secretary had made it very clear that the government was not planning to introduce Plan B in the near future.

“Our model was projecting that cases would start to decline some time in the autumn. However, the model also suggests that cases may start to climb again in the spring, due to a combination of waning immunity and increased contacts.”

Much of the current wave is being driven by high case rates in children. Scientific sources close to the Government expect the “children’s epidemic” to run out of steam soon as immunity in youngsters increases, both through infection and vaccination.

The October half term, which for many schools begins on Monday, is also expected to help bring down case numbers. Scientists believe that the virus is close to reaching “endemic equilibrium” and recent oscillations in case rates will soon settle down.

Experts said if the models were correct, then it would do little good to bring in restrictions at this stage, and would be better for long-term immunity to allow the virus to spread.

Paul Hunter, Professor in Medicine, at the University of East Anglia, said: “There are times when delaying is really valuable, but there comes a point when restrictions have no value because you’ve got as much protection as you’re going to get, so you end up putting it off to a point where you lose immunity.

“What the modelling suggests is that even without Plan B, we should expect to see case numbers falling quite rapidly in the next few weeks. If correct, Christmas should see some of the lowest number of cases of Covid since late May/early June even without further restrictions.

“If it's right, then this issue about whether we should be locking down is immaterial. We shouldn’t and the Government is doing the right thing.

“Ultimately Covid will become another cause for the common cold. Once you’ve been vaccinated and had the infection a couple of times, it will almost always be asymptomatic or have symptoms like a cold.”

Covid cases to slump this winter, say scientists

Modelling seen by Government predicts falling infections even without implementation of ‘Plan B’ restrictions

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[LDC]

Yes, that's the case at present. IE - six months [190 days ?] from second dose for over 50s or in a vulnerable category.

Or health and social care workers. I'm under 50 and had mine last week booked through the national online system as work didn't have slots (lack of them rather than being full), was just asked to be able to prove job with NHS ID.

 

[LDC]

This is from the Torygraph, so I am sceptical about the claim they are aware of other unpublished models suggesting cases will come down without introducing 'Plan B', but the one they quote from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is certainly interesting.

Of course, there's always several models, with a whole range of possible outcomes, but it would be nice if this one has got it right.

Covid cases to slump this winter, say scientists

Modelling seen by Government predicts falling infections even without implementation of ‘Plan B’ restrictions

www.telegraph.co.uk

Totally anecdotally it does seem to be the case among people I know. Loads of people I know have had it recently and have it now, and it's all just been cold-like symptoms and it's passed in a week or so with no complications. All are double vaccinated though. My friend working in public health currently thinks no restrictions and leaving it to go like is suggested above is probably the right thing to do now.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Totally anecdotally it does seem to be the case among people I know. Loads of people I know have had it recently and have it now, and it's all just been cold-like symptoms and it's passed in a week or so with no complications. All are double vaccinated though.

Same here, although I know one chap who ended-up in hospital despite being double jabbed, he's in his early 70's with various underlying health conditions, but got away with just 4 days on oxygen, and made a full recovery.

 

[elbows]

This is from the Torygraph, so I am sceptical about the claim they are aware of other unpublished models suggesting cases will come down without introducing 'Plan B', but the one they quote from London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine is certainly interesting.

Of course, there's always several models, with a whole range of possible outcomes, but it would be nice if this one has got it right.

Covid cases to slump this winter, say scientists

Modelling seen by Government predicts falling infections even without implementation of ‘Plan B’ restrictions

www.telegraph.co.uk

My thoughts on the modelling we did get to see is in the following post and the subsequent one: General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat

One of the LSHTM model outputs is the 2nd graph I posted there.

As I said in those posts, I feel the need to point out that recent days worth of hospital admissions data for England really challenges the upper bounds of those projections already. So it wont take too long at all before we see whether the real data carries on increasing even beyond the confidence intervals shown in that modelling, or whether those numbers soon peak.

We should expect half term to do something (and the changing mood music to do something), but I have a rather open mind about what will happen next. Perhaps some models have got it right, perhaps not. They cant all be right as there is quite a bit of variation in what they show. The modellers themselves should say that they just modelled a number of specific scenarios and what influence the effects of different degrees of waning immunity and changes to peoples behaviour would be expected to have, rather than trying to make an exact prediction about what will happen next. I would also say its a bad idea to cherrypick only the models that show scenarios the Telegraph are happy with, rather than ones that show nasty peaks around Christmas and new year.

The Hunter quotes and the 'endemic equilibrium' stuff is also not surprising. Hunter has been saying this sort of stuff for months, and only time will tell whether he is right or not. At the very least he usually sounds far too sure and confident for my liking, and he has ended up being a useful tool for pandemic shitheads during this phase. But obviously what really matters is whether he is right or not, and we should get some early answers to that question over the next 2-4 weeks. I would not like to guess either way, which is why I continue to be short on exact predictions about this wave myself.

 

[_Russ_]

https://public.tableau.com/app/prof.../RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

 

[little_legs]

The Guardian is no longer displaying the graphic with the latest data on its front page, this is their last graphic from Oct 22

 

[Cloo]

The Telegraph thing does sound like 'Tories are listening to the projection they want to hear and going "lalalalala" to anything else'. I mean their 'strategy' such as it is since July 19 does seem to me to have been 'Let's get a peak before winter and hopefully it'll work out like that'. I mean, I'm not gonna say I hope they're wrong about that, but I'm not going to be confident in it either.

 

[teqniq]

This is damning:

 

[StoneRoad]

https://public.tableau.com/app/prof.../RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary

Apart from the numbers vaccinated, there's not much good news in that link.

The cases & %positivity trends are definitely not good at all.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

Reusable masks anyone? What about this? It's FFP2. Freedom1 FFP2 Graphene Protective Reusable Face Mask featuring Nanane™ and Polygrene™ You wear it ten times then spray it with graphene. You don't wash it. The mask is £9.60, and so is the graphene Graphene Mask Sanitiser Spray 100ml

"

• A Freedom 1 mask can be worn for a whole day – carefully sanitised and reused, compared to changing a paper mask every 2-4 hours.
• With careful use one Freedom1 mask will last up 10 cycles of wear and sanitisation without losing efficacy. Please refer to below cleaning instructions.

"
So not quite what you said, I think I will stick with my regular FFP2s at £7.95 + shipping for a box of 20.

 

[StoneRoad]

I've tried several FFP2 suppliers, as I wear glasses I need a padded bridge, the wired ones are nearly as bad as a paper/medical styled one for misting up specs.
We found a suitable one in the early months of the Lockdown. [Respiratory BIOMASK 2.0 from Expert Technology / Scotts ; co. based in Wiltshire - where the masks are actually made, I don't know].
The packaging says "single use", but I've been spraying them with disinfectant and drying them, with about 10 days between uses. I don't need one everyday, as I'm WFH.

 

[David Clapson]

I've ordered an Airpop mask. Reusable and well reviewed. Disposable masks are an environmental disaster. Reusable face coverings can be highly effective, Which? tests reveal – Which? News I want to go to the cinema. I'm high risk. And triple jabbed. I'll use micropore tape to ensure a good seal.

 

[elbows]

When I saw the word plummet in the headline I knew it would be Triggle, and it was.

Its the BBCs version of the Telegraph story except they stick to published modelling results unlike the Telegraph. And I already gave my thoughts on this modelling. It is possible, but there are no certainties for me at the moment. If we were at a earlier, more straightforward stage of the pandemic then I would be mercilessly mocking this article, and perhaps there will still be cause to do so in future, but perhaps not. After all it is half term, and the immunity picture is complicated these days. And there is more sense and balance later in the article than the headline and the start of the article would imply.

Covid: Are cases about to plummet without Plan B?

Infection levels have been rising, but this could be about to change - and change quite dramatically.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Spandex]

The idea that case numbers are set to fall isn't that wild. It's happened before recently; here are reported new case figures for the last six months:


In mid-July and mid-September just as things started to look bad, and the impacts were rising to the point where somebody would have to do something, the numbers dropped unexpectedly away before starting to rise again.

The past four days have seen numbers come down; here are reported new case numbers for the past month:


So it's certainly a possibility. But no-one really knows where we're going with this. It could be a slight dip before numbers continue to rise, there might be a sharp fall followed by numbers creeping up again like the last two times, it might drop to a lower level and stay there. Just have to wait and see. Again.

That top graph is a rollercoaster ride and since July it's been going up and down in a range where the government can get away with doing nothing much, but Covid continues to hospitalise and kill significant numbers of people. I just wish it would go one way or the other so there's some kind of resolution, preferably dropping to a level where I'm comfortable living with it, because I'm sick of this twilight zone we're in where it's there, but we're supposed to pretend it's not..

 

[scalyboy]

I always spray my reusable masks with an anti bacterial thingy and then hang them up.

How long do you hang them up for? I used to put them up in the window for 24 hours or so, but someone told me that's not long enough. And anyway I was doing so in summer, when we had some sun. Afterwards I began washing my N95/FFP2 masks after each use, but I suspect they can only take a limited number of washes before they become ineffective.

 

[scalyboy]

... Covid continues to hospitalise and kill significant numbers of people. I just wish it would go one way or the other so there's some kind of resolution, preferably dropping to a level where I'm comfortable living with it, because I'm sick of this twilight zone we're in where it's there, but we're supposed to pretend it's not..

I was just looking at the govt data over the past 19 months and - unless I've misunderstood the graphs - it looked like hospital admissions now are only slightly below the numbers of admissions at the same time last year. Similarly with deaths, they are lower than 12 months ago but by not as much as I'd expected. But I wasn't able to see whether these current hospitalisation and death stats can be further broken down so they distinguish between vaccinated and unvaccinated people