elbows
Well-Known Member
The idea that case numbers are set to fall isn't that wild. It's happened before recently; here are reported new case figures for the last six months:
View attachment 294252
In mid-July and mid-September just as things started to look bad, and the impacts were rising to the point where somebody would have to do something, the numbers dropped unexpectedly away before starting to rise again.
The July falls in England were not unexpected to me, because I paid attention to school holidays and what happened in Scotland when their schools broke up for summer.
Since its half term in many places this week I certainly dont expect this weeks numbers to show clear growth compared to last weeks. But I'll have to wait further weeks to get a proper glimpse about whats actually happening because schools being off tends to make a large difference to number of people getting tested, and also makes a difference to other behaviours and contact levels.
The mood music can also make a difference to behaviour, and that mood music has certainly changed in recent weeks.
Edited to add - As for what was seen in data during parts of September, at the time I attributed some of that to a nice spell of weather but that probably wasnt the only factor and I'll continue to describe this phase of the pandemic as messy and somewhat unpredictable. At least this spares everyone from my endless waffle about what the latest modelling shows, since such exercises could easily end up far wide of the mark.