cuppa tee
Well-Known Member
....or just covering the mouth as many have since the beginning.
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
....or just covering the mouth as many have since the beginning.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Other polls have shown support for ongoing restrictions more in the 50% area.
I'd be interested to see these results broken down by age group. If you're double-jabbed and you're telling those who aren't to put themselves at risk for your sake, well let's just say you're not my kind of person.
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
It's my understanding that if only partially vaccinated the virus can still get a foot hold, see the immune response and have more of a chance to find ways round it.
If fully vaccinated there's less chance of the virus getting a foothold before the immune system sees it. Although, AZ is only 60% effective against the delta variant, even with double doses so I guess there's still a good chance of variants. All this just further highlights the absolute fucking idiocy of doing away with all restrictions when numbers are high and ever climbing.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
I think it will be interesting if the public work out that 'we want young people to catch Covid' is the plan, with all the attendant risks of long Covid. If there was ever a time for Labour to push hard on fully funded sick pay and replacing the gig economy, this is it. However weary people are of the restrictions, there's a deep sense of unease out there, crying out for social democratic responses. It's not my politics, but it's an indication that there's still a terrain for labour to occupy.They are probably unsettled that their attempts to change the tone of the rhetoric in the last press conference were too little, too late. And the opinion polling, and the number of authorities (eg mayors) who are signalling that they will try to keep mask rule in certain settings.
Whether any analysis of recent data has also given them fresh cause for concern I cannot judge, since I havent seen the analysis.
They wanted to have their cake and eat it, but thats not a realistic goal. Especially when economic recovery and something approaching normal life requires the masses to be confident, and the governments own approach repeatedly undermines that. It reminds me a little of how, once the first wave was diminishing, Johnson tried to push too soon for schools reopening and people going back to work for June last year, an attempt that faltered very quickly.
The WHO continue to be unimpressed too:
Public alarm grows at Boris Johnson’s plan for Covid ‘freedom day’
Poll shows 50% want rules to stay in place, as mayors urge masks on public transportwww.theguardian.com
prunus
Tick tock.
Yes is the simple answer.
Any actively replicating pool of virus (as in an infected person) will be creating variants all the time through copying errors.
Whether or not any of those variants are better at infecting people is down to chance.
A person with a strong immune response (whether from previous infection or vaccination or just because) might be able to kill off some of the variants that arise inside them before they can spread. However by definition any variant that arises that is especially good are infecting human cells and/or evading the immune response will be more likely to be able to win out and spread. This is the selective pressure.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The question of whether there is something else going on in the North East is an interesting one and I was surprised it took so long to gain some traction.
The North East certainly stuck out on graphs I've made. However I am not qualified to judge whether it really contains 'a signal' that authorities look for when considering variants, as happened with the Kent variant towards the end of last year. Because I certainly didnt identify the data from the South East as being a signal at the time. It was obvious that cases had exploded there but a deeper analysis than I am capable of was required to unpick that one at the time, I couldnt tell the difference between it being a new variant and a failure of policy/too weak a November lockdown, coupled with regional factors.
I cannot tell from the basic numbers whether something is such a signal, or whether it is more a question of the North East being first, with other regions set to follow the same trend later. There has been a clear contrast between the North West and the North East, but there are multiple possible explanations for that and I considered the possibility that its the North West thats been the odd one out, rather than the North East.
Plus since this is the first Delta wave we've had, it is hard for me to tell the difference between a signal of some other variant or modified Delta, as opposed to data being in tune with what we'd expect from Delta.
There have also been some false starts, in terms of the fact some people are looking closely and have become somewhat wedded to the idea that something is up in the North East. For example there was an upload to a genome database that cause alarm the other day, but then this was blamed on faulty data. There was the article that mentions authorities having seen 'a signal', but then PHE issued a denial which seemed carefully worded to exclude some possibilities but with the door still left ajar to them having seen a signal.
As a result of this I currently have an open mind on the subject. There are certain warning signs and possibly some associated weasel words and murk, but I cannot faily describe all of these as being genuine tell-tale signs at this point. From my limited vantage point this one does require the benefit of hindsight, but it would be nice to think that some authorities are much better placed to get to the bottom of things in a timely manner that is unavailable to me.
I also have to keep in mind that some modelling exercises done months ago thought that the North East would be especially badly affected this time, in great part due to them having a more modest Alpha wave than many regions (eg because the timing of their wave meant January lockdown was more timely for that region than others, and so cut off their peak at an earlier stage).
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LeytonCatLady
Well-Known Member
I can't tell if your last sentence is directed at me specifically or if you're speaking generally, but I'm talking about those who want nightclubs to shut and a curfew regardless of coronavirus. That sounds unnecessarily controlling. Obviously I accept we need restrictions while Covid is still a threat, but after?
elbows
Well-Known Member
Plus very knowledgeable people like 2hats are not afraid to point out the ways in which crap policies may end up enhancing such selection pressures.
eg if you make various rules and surveillance attempts weaker for double-vaccinated people, then you are inviting strains of the virus that are adept at infecting double-vaccinated people to walk through the door.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Carrying on the North East 'signal' stuff, I have been pondering what sorts of signals would alarm authorities. It wont just be raw number of cases. It could be the doubling time. Or the age profiles of people getting infected. Or the age profiles or vaccination status of those requiring hospitalisation, or a differing profile of disease severity and outcomes. Theres probably more where that came from. Some of that data is available to me in relatively timely fashion, others I dont get to see till quite a bit later.
2hats
Dust.
And whilst high community prevalence is not addressed, it will skew in favour of the virus over time, as selection pressure playfully nudges the bricks of the tottering jenga tower of government pandemic policy.
Leighsw2
strictly off the record
Which rather presumes that's a terrain that Labour would like to occupy. Unfortunately this is probably not the case with the people who are now in charge.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Public alarm grows at Boris Johnson’s plan for Covid ‘freedom day’
Poll shows 50% want rules to stay in place, as mayors urge masks on public transport
I shouldnt really miss the opportunity to say that hospital infections were mentioned in that Guardian article.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
How about Javid-19?
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
'Enjoyed' reading this at work. Good article, even if in The Guardian...
The NHS is already overstretched – dropping Covid restrictions will spell disaster for patients | Rachel Clarke
The NHS is already overstretched – dropping Covid restrictions will spell disaster for patients | Rachel Clarke
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
The i article Pagel cites seems to be unsupported:
Public Health England not investigating a new Covid variant in the North East
Reports have suggested that Public Health officials are investigating a new Covid-19 variant which is said to have emerged in the North East.
www.northumberlandgazette.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes I mentioned the denial earlier. They dont explicitly deny that there was a potential signal in the data, but I already gave my thoughts on that, I cant really tell and its unclear to me why the North East data seemed so surprising to some. Somebody somewhere briefed a journalist that a signal had been seen, but without having a clue about who that source was, I cant really place any weight on the original reporting.
FridgeMagnet
Administrator
Somehow "public health officials are not investigating a new variant" is not reassuring.The i article Pagel cites seems to be unsupported:
Public Health England not investigating a new Covid variant in the North East
Reports have suggested that Public Health officials are investigating a new Covid-19 variant which is said to have emerged in the North East.
two sheds
Least noticed poster 2007
Also Cornwall. I'm not sure what percentage of cases now are delta - infections started around mid june but people will presumably have come from all over the place for G7 and holidays.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah but I was just talking about particular modelling, and I probably added my own thoughts on top of what they actually claimed. Basically apart from London they had most areas doing badly in a wave. Tthe North East & Yorkshire got mentioned for being the worst but most of the rest werent exactly great. Page 25 of https://assets.publishing.service.g.../file/993358/s1288_Warwick_RoadMap_Step_4.pdf
Supine
Newt Member
Having traveled through London via train stations today all i can say is YES
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Does it transmit via the medium of fisticuffs?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
More rowing back from the superbrains who run the country:
www.theguardian.com
Covid unlocking on 19 July must come with a warning, says Johnson
Ministers are told easing of restrictions could be accompanied by 2m new cases in coming weeks
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