Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[MickiQ]

Is it? No vaccine is 100% risk free and yet most parents still vaccinate their kids.

Absolutely, however with regular childhood vaccinations they are done to protect the child on the grounds that the risk to 'them' of the virus is far greater than the risk to 'them' of the vaccine. It also provides protection to the wider community which is good of course but that is secondary to the primary aim of protecting the innoculated child. With CoVID all the evidence there is so far is that the health risks drop like a stone the younger you are whereas there is some (though by no means conclusive) evidence that the health risks of the vaccine go up the younger you are. Is there a point at which the risks of vaccine vs virus is greater (hopefully no)? It's too early to know yet but it's not a concern that can just be dismissed.
Where it comes to childhood vaccinations Mrs Q and the GMC see eye to eye and all four of ours were jabbed with whatever was appropriate at the appropriate ages. I don't know about my grandsons but I know my wife well enough to know that she will have grilled Eldest and since there have been no annoyed rants I am confident that our daughter's answer was satisfactory.
I have no patience with the anti-vaxxer loons and am quite happy for them to die due to their own stupidity but we are however in unknown territory here and I can understand the concerns of parents (who would be happy to take the vaccine themselves) who might want greater reassurance before having their children vaccinated.

 

[Red Cat]

I think it's likely that the uncertainty about this virus and who is most vulnerable as the virus itself changes also morphs into fears about the vaccine and who might be at risk from that.

 

[elbows]

Model isn’t going well

In addition to what I already said about this, I note that they have these graphs per region too. And since the North East & Yorkshire are badly affected at the moment, and were one of the steeper graphs they generated, I decided to have a go at overlaying the latest data on top of their graph for that region. I havent got it lined up 100% perfectly, but I think its close enough. The green line is the real data I added via my own chart.

 

[wtfftw]

Isn't it that with mutations and vaccine escape we want the smallest pool of unvaccinated people? There's a vast number of children...

 

[Supine]

To be fair, that was two weeks ago and the accompanying text explicitly states it is not a forecast

I know they always have that kind of proviso. They shouldn’t put forward looking estimates with confidence levels if they don’t want people to use them

 

[elbows]

I know they always have that kind of proviso. They shouldn’t put forward looking estimates with confidence levels if they don’t want people to use them

Using them means paying attention to the caveats they plaster all around those charts. Very much including the fact that they dont think these models account for changes to behaviour etc that happen in the previous few weeks leading up to their projection.

Although frankly these medium term projections have never been very useful to me, especially as there is often quite some delay in publishing them.

I expect they are especially wide of the mark at the moment because the rate of growth in cases has fluctuated in a big way on several occasions recently. There was a period which would have made the short-medium term modelling more optimistic, and this particular set of projections probably fell foul of that. Some projections from much earlier in June were a better fit for whats been happening recently than the more recent ones, probably for the same reason.

I completed my per-region exercise and the South West is the only region where the hospitalisations so far have continued to track their central projection rather than shooting up to close to or beyond their maximum shaded range. Some of these developments are quite recent so I need to give it more time to see what happens next.

 

[zahir]

 

[cupid_stunt]

Absolutely, however with regular childhood vaccinations they are done to protect the child on the grounds that the risk to 'them' of the virus is far greater than the risk to 'them' of the vaccine. It also provides protection to the wider community which is good of course but that is secondary to the primary aim of protecting the innoculated child. With CoVID all the evidence there is so far is that the health risks drop like a stone the younger you are whereas there is some (though by no means conclusive) evidence that the health risks of the vaccine go up the younger you are. Is there a point at which the risks of vaccine vs virus is greater (hopefully no)? It's too early to know yet but it's not a concern that can just be dismissed.

There is, of course, the issue of long covid, and this is the first report I've seen that covers figures in respect of children, according to official statistics, some 33,000 are suffering from it, although some will be suffering more serious illness than others.

Serious cases of long covid among the young have also been emerging. Claire Hayes said her daughter Gracie was a bright and successful pupil at her school in Northumberland until July last year. Since then, the 11-year-old has not managed to complete a week in the classroom. “She’s lost a lot of weight, and the fatigue kicked in,” Hayes said. “She’s had horrible headaches, rushes, pains. When she stands up, her heart rate doubles. And she gets brain fog. Some days she can’t get out of bed because she feels dizzy. Just having a shower is impossible.”

Fran Simpson of Long Covid Kids said: “Children who’ve got long covid – it’s completely destroyed their lives for some of them. They’ve gone from being children going to school, seeing their friends, having hobbies, to not being able to school. Some are not well enough to walk – they’re using wheelchairs. Others are not eating properly because of the impact on taste and smell. It feels like they’ve had their childhood stolen.”

About 7% to 9% of children who become infected with covid go on to develop some long-Covid symptoms, according to Office for National Statistics data.

‘Their childhood has been stolen’: calls for action to tackle long Covid

MPs and peers demand review of debilitating condition as fears grow of surge among young after 19 July lifting

www.theguardian.com

 

[existentialist]

There is, of course, the issue of long covid, and this is the first report I've seen that covers figures in respect of children, according to official statistics, some 33,000 are suffering from it, although some will be suffering more serious illness than others.

‘Their childhood has been stolen’: calls for action to tackle long Covid

MPs and peers demand review of debilitating condition as fears grow of surge among young after 19 July lifting

www.theguardian.com

I think our (I use the term loosely) government has been and is carefully and studiously ignoring the long Covid issue.

Mind you, Javid-19 is ignoring pretty much any reality that doesn't fit the ideology.

 

[glitch hiker]

Decisive leadership

 

[gentlegreen]

Nasty cop nice cop ....

 

[IC3D]

Splitting hairs over any politicians words is like complaining about the way you are being kicked in the nuts/tits. I do not support anything more than offering the symptom reducing injection to those that want it. Its a corona virus it will run and run. Personally I suspect its laboratory in origin and the emergency planning seems very focused on a laboratory solution, social engineering aspects have been appalling constructed and implemented. Harm reduction by mask promotion, public health awareness should be ramped up, NHS services funded.

 

[Brainaddict]

I think the question is interesting. I think it's related to why the Tories under May went so hard Brexit when they didn't have to. My interpretation is they were shocked by a party (UKIP) sneaking in to the right of them and causing so much trouble. So now they are determined not to allow any space to the right of them for that to happen again, and because of Labour's various fuck-ups (remain wavering, inability to persuade people that Corbyn was on their side (against hostile press), failing to get electorate on board with 2019 manifesto, electing an empty suit) they feel that they don't have to worry too much about losing votes to their left. So alas their mask position is nothing to do with evidence or science and everything to do with electioneering. The vote they are worried about is the macho 'freedom-loving' nuts who hate mandatory masks. It sucks. It may also turn out to be a miscalculation, because it's possible they are fighting the last war (Brexit) and that isn't the electorate they need to be chasing at all. But I'm being optimistic.

 

[IC3D]

That is what I don't get. The exeptance that this just occured seems glaringly remiss. World govts Inc China would be all over finding out how to prevent a repeat occurrence but instead they focus on data collection and damage limitation

 

[maomao]

I think the question is interesting. I think it's related to why the Tories under May went so hard Brexit when they didn't have to. My interpretation is they were shocked by a party (UKIP) sneaking in to the right of them and causing so much trouble. So now they are determined not to allow any space to the right of them for that to happen again, and because of Labour's various fuck-ups (remain wavering, inability to persuade people that Corbyn was on their side (against hostile press), failing to get electorate on board with 2019 manifesto, electing an empty suit) they feel that they don't have to worry too much about losing votes to their left. So alas their mask position is nothing to do with evidence or science and everything to do with electioneering. The vote they are worried about is the macho 'freedom-loving' nuts who hate mandatory masks. It sucks. It may also turn out to be a miscalculation, because it's possible they are fighting the last war (Brexit) and that isn't the electorate they need to be chasing at all. But I'm being optimistic.

I think it's more likely an ideological belief that the boss class should be allowed to exploit people and resources unhindered.

 

[Brainaddict]

I think it's more likely an ideological belief that the boss class should be allowed to exploit people and resources unhindered.

Masks don't stop that though, do they? I agree that's the explanation of why people won't have to self-isolate and some of the other measures.

 

[zahir]

I think the question is interesting. I think it's related to why the Tories under May went so hard Brexit when they didn't have to. My interpretation is they were shocked by a party (UKIP) sneaking in to the right of them and causing so much trouble. So now they are determined not to allow any space to the right of them for that to happen again, and because of Labour's various fuck-ups (remain wavering, inability to persuade people that Corbyn was on their side (against hostile press), failing to get electorate on board with 2019 manifesto, electing an empty suit) they feel that they don't have to worry too much about losing votes to their left. So alas their mask position is nothing to do with evidence or science and everything to do with electioneering. The vote they are worried about is the macho 'freedom-loving' nuts who hate mandatory masks. It sucks. It may also turn out to be a miscalculation, because it's possible they are fighting the last war (Brexit) and that isn't the electorate they need to be chasing at all. But I'm being optimistic.

I wonder if they're risking dividing their base of support. I can't see that everyone on the right is going to be behind them. See this by Melanie Phillips for example:

A reckless gamble

With the prospect of an alarming rise in Covid infections, Boris Johnson is saying "bring it on"

melaniephillips.substack.com

eta: that came to my attention because it was shared by a life-long Conservative supporter.

 

[teuchter]

If that survey is really representative... I'm a bit concerned that a quarter of the population want nightclubs closed forever, and nearly 20% want a 10pm curfew forever.

 

[Brainaddict]

If that survey is really representative... I'm a bit concerned that a quarter of the population want nightclubs closed forever, and nearly 20% want a 10pm curfew forever.

I guess never underestimate the bitter vindictiveness of the older Tory vote? They're not happy so why should anyone else be. Alternatively people may not take these surveys very seriously when they answer them.

 

[LeytonCatLady]

If that survey is really representative... I'm a bit concerned that a quarter of the population want nightclubs closed forever, and nearly 20% want a 10pm curfew forever.

Well, a quarter of people who took part in the survey. I didn't take part and I bet thousands of others didn't either. Still iffy.

 

[kabbes]

Remember that when answering questions like these, people don’t consult a predetermined rational checklist in their head and look up the answer. They construct a position in the moment based on loads of contextual factors. That’s why the specific wording of question and answer are important, along with which questions preceded this. But it also matters who is asking and how, and what difference the questioned person perceives their answer will make and why the question has been asked.

As somebody with no power to actually make it happen, if asked to state a personal preference by a random clipboard-bearer on the street, I might well respond that I would happier if nightclubs stayed shut forever. Doesn’t mean I think they should stay shut forever.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Remember that when answering questions like these, people don’t consult a predetermined rational checklist in their head and look up the answer. They construct a position in the moment based on loads of contextual factors. That’s why the specific wording of question and answer are important, along with which questions preceded this. But it also matters who is asking and how, and what difference the questioned person perceives their answer will make and why the question has been asked.

As somebody with no power to actually make it happen, if asked to state a personal preference by a random clipboard-bearer on the street, I might well respond that I would happier if nightclubs stayed shut forever. Doesn’t mean I think they should stay shut forever.

Also worth remembering that a huge number of people are thick as shit.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Remember that when answering questions like these, people don’t consult a predetermined rational checklist in their head and look up the answer. They construct a position in the moment based on loads of contextual factors. That’s why the specific wording of question and answer are important, along with which questions preceded this. But it also matters who is asking and how, and what difference the questioned person perceives their answer will make and why the question has been asked.

As somebody with no power to actually make it happen, if asked to state a personal preference by a random clipboard-bearer on the street, I might well respond that I would happier if nightclubs stayed shut forever. Doesn’t mean I think they should stay shut forever.

True, as so well demonstrated in this clip.

 

[Wilf]

Government beginning to bottle it over their mass infection policy? Well, a significant move back towards masks in England:

Nadhim Zahawi says mask wearing will be ‘expected’ after 19 July

Minister signals harder stance on face coverings in England as soaring Covid infections cause concern

www.theguardian.com

 

[Spandex]

Government beginning to bottle it over their mass infection policy? Well, a significant move back towards masks in England:

Nadhim Zahawi says mask wearing will be ‘expected’ after 19 July

Minister signals harder stance on face coverings in England as soaring Covid infections cause concern

www.theguardian.com

So you don't have to wear a mask but you do have to wear a mask. I'm glad that's clear now.

 

[cupid_stunt]

So you don't have to wear a mask but you do have to wear a mask. I'm glad that's clear now.

Yeah, I commented about it on the face-mask thread, it's going to be advice and not law, which is as dumb as it gets.

 

[two sheds]

Sorry if this has been covered and I missed it, but if someone's infected after vaccination is there still a risk of creating a variant?

 

[LDC]

Casinos closed forever in that poll though.

 

[Wilf]

So you don't have to wear a mask but you do have to wear a mask. I'm glad that's clear now.

Maybe just wear it askew?

 

[elbows]

Government beginning to bottle it over their mass infection policy? Well, a significant move back towards masks in England:

Nadhim Zahawi says mask wearing will be ‘expected’ after 19 July

Minister signals harder stance on face coverings in England as soaring Covid infections cause concern

www.theguardian.com

They are probably unsettled that their attempts to change the tone of the rhetoric in the last press conference were too little, too late. And the opinion polling, and the number of authorities (eg mayors) who are signalling that they will try to keep mask rule in certain settings.

Whether any analysis of recent data has also given them fresh cause for concern I cannot judge, since I havent seen the analysis.

They wanted to have their cake and eat it, but thats not a realistic goal. Especially when economic recovery and something approaching normal life requires the masses to be confident, and the governments own approach repeatedly undermines that. It reminds me a little of how, once the first wave was diminishing, Johnson tried to push too soon for schools reopening and people going back to work for June last year, an attempt that faltered very quickly.

The WHO continue to be unimpressed too:

The World Health Organization (WHO) is becoming increasingly vocal about the dangers of the government’s plans. While not referring to the prime minister by name, Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s Covid-19 technical lead, said that allowing the disease to spread and infect others “by not implementing consistently proven actions that prevent infections, reduce spread, prevent disease and save lives is immoral, unethical and non-scientific”.

Public alarm grows at Boris Johnson’s plan for Covid ‘freedom day’

Poll shows 50% want rules to stay in place, as mayors urge masks on public transport

www.theguardian.com