Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Its certainly true that step 3 of unlocking was my biggest concern, but it is unclear how much further R can rise with the abandoning of various other things - a lot probably, but that will be balanced by however many people dont go back to normal and by whatever effects of population immunity we develop. But rhetoric about future approach, and indeed the entire way things have been framed in the UK via government and media for most of 2021 are a cause for concern for the short, medium and long term of coping with this virus. As I've been saying in recent weeks, they might get away with it in terms of whether this wave crushes hospitals, their plans and their political future, they might not. I dont feel like there is much longer left before I will get a much better sense of what the numbers are going to turn out like in this wave, in terms of the sharp end of hospitalisations and deaths.

 

[Cat Fan]

I feel like the whole world has an overpopulation/overcrowding problem, but it's especially true in cities (which is where most people live).

Climate change is only going to make that problem worse as less and less of the earth becomes habitable. It's a bit sad how short term people are that the whole world stops when people start getting sick, but everyone carries on as usual when the whole planet is sick.

Just to add to that point. Disease thrives in unsanitary and overcrowded conditions. We treat animals horrendously, especially those we breed for food. Eventually that creates super viruses that can jump the species barrier.

Anyone who wants to stop the next pandemic could do worse than become a vegetarian/vegan.

 

[Cat Fan]

Its certainly true that step 3 of unlocking was my biggest concern, but it is unclear how much further R can rise with the abandoning of various other things - a lot probably, but that will be balanced by however many people dont go back to normal and by whatever effects of population immunity we develop. But rhetoric about future approach, and indeed the entire way things have been framed in the UK via government and media for most of 2021 are a cause for concern for the short, medium and long term of coping with this virus. As I've been saying in recent weeks, they might get away with it in terms of whether this wave crushes hospitals, their plans and their political future, they might not. I dont feel like there is much longer left before I will get a much better sense of what the numbers are going to turn out like in this wave, in terms of the sharp end of hospitalisations and deaths.

Indeed, Delta seems to be absurdly contagious, but have been "lucky" that the vaccines still work in preventing serious illness so far.

 

[nagapie]

As a Londoner I can confirm that everyone I know who has been offered the vaccine has taken it. London is a lot younger than the rest of the UK, so I imagine that's the main reason (there will be plenty of under 30s who have booked their 1st dose but not got it yet).

Could also be that well known NHS registration miscounting thing to be honest, lots of people (especially students) register with GPs and then forget to register somewhere else when they move. Many Londoners left the country and aren't coming back, so there's that as well if those people are included in the calculations.

Finally London also has a high proportion of vulnerable and minority groups that are less able to access a vaccine or don't want to get one.

I work with a team of 8 twenty something year olds; half are not getting it.

 

[elbows]

So the Johnson press conference announcing what the next step will look like is happening tomorrow, and then a final decision on everything being 'ok', timing and it going ahead will happen a week later on the 12th.

Covid: Mask law and one metre rule set to end in England

Boris Johnson is ready to announce most remaining Covid restrictions can be eased from 19 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Wilf]

Bit weird seeing all the crowds going wild watching the football last night, how are they not going to be massive spreading events?!

Yep. My guess is that the police and local authorities have just about given up on controlling that kind of behaviour. Well, they might as well since the government has given covid permission to spread just how the fuck it likes in 2 weeks.

 

[Cat Fan]

So the Johnson press conference announcing what the next step will look like is happening tomorrow, and then a final decision on everything being 'ok', timing and it going ahead will happen a week later on the 12th.

Covid: Mask law and one metre rule set to end in England

Boris Johnson is ready to announce most remaining Covid restrictions can be eased from 19 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

Very optimistic of the BBC to use the word "final" there!

 

[xenon]

But how do you suppress case numbers once everyone has been fully vaccinated. For values of everyone.
that’s what I’m getting at. Just let cases rise possible mutants which May or may not be more harmful.

seems like this is the path we are on so I guess we will find out. The tension is between how do vulnerable people protect themselves, how do we as a society live with this. With the risk of more deadly mutants arising.
Yeah I know Captain obvious.
But the only case for lockdown is when the NHS becomes overwhelmed. If that and let’s hope it doesn’t, become a thing. What then. Oh well, they must’ve argued about this during the black plague,. Sarcasm.

 

[xenon]

I mean can we just not have people pointing at numbers going oh my God oh my God. We did that last year. Can we have a debate, or something.

 

[elbows]

Well Labour have asked some of the right questions about it, but I'm not sure how much of a debate there will be about it. And whether there is much of one at all does depend on whether certain numbers reach levels that add impetus to such debate and the sense that the government are doing it all wrong (or, alternatively, getting away with the numbers game in the vaccination era).

Labour's shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth urged the government to confirm "what level of mortality and cases of long Covid" it considers acceptable.
"Letting cases rise with no action means further pressure on the NHS, more sickness, disruption to education - and risks a new variant emerging with a selection advantage," he warned.

From Boris Johnson to set out England's final Covid lockdown easing

As for us mere mortals here on this forum, I expect we will do the usual mix of both. No point asking people not to react in horror at various data or to want to talk about it. But plenty of discussion and debate of all manner of aspects along the way too. Some nasty arguments too I expect.

As for tomorrows details it sounds like much has been leaked again. I dont really feel like repeating the details via tweets from some shithead from the Sun, so i wont get into the detail right now. But it sounds like the expected sort of mix where some stuff is ditched completely, some stuff will still linger voluntarily or because the businesses and institutions in question decide to, and some government stuff remaining in place for now, like matters related to self-isolation that they'd like to get rid of at some point but probably dont feel confident enough to do that yet and still have key numbers stand a chance of adding up against Delta..

 

[elbows]

And there is a sort of debate on twitter, or at least #ToryCovidCatastrophe is trending.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

But how do you suppress case numbers once everyone has been fully vaccinated. For values of everyone.
that’s what I’m getting at. Just let cases rise possible mutants which May or may not be more harmful.

seems like this is the path we are on so I guess we will find out. The tension is between how do vulnerable people protect themselves, how do we as a society live with this. With the risk of more deadly mutants arising.
Yeah I know Captain obvious.
But the only case for lockdown is when the NHS becomes overwhelmed. If that and let’s hope it doesn’t, become a thing. What then. Oh well, they must’ve argued about this during the black plague,. Sarcasm.

Personally I just think we do the things I mentioned earlier. Masks on public transport and in shops and just giving each other more space in public. I also think limited capacity in clubs, pubs etc and allowing for more flexible working arrangements between home and office. Couple these with proper financial support to keep businesses and individuals afloat.

This won't be forever of course, although I wish the space thing would remain permanent in shops etc, and this isn't the same as lockdowns but I think this is what's needed until we can understand, prevent treat long covid better and until such time a variaint comes along that isn't so destructive to our health. That's not definite but there's as much chance of that happening as there is as even more dangerous variants emerging. Throwing all these restrictions out the window now though is fucking insane.

 

[two sheds]

Plus improve ventilation in buildings, see how we can minimize the risks of the virus being passed on in crowded spaces.

 

[existentialist]

That doesn't answer my point does? Every case increases the chance of a mutation. A mutation that could evade the vaccine, or do you disagree with this basic science?

I think that your interlocutor is less interested in basic science than political posturing.

 

[Loose meat]

That doesn't answer my point does? Every case increases the chance of a mutation. A mutation that could evade the vaccine, or do you disagree with this basic science?

Not sure I can bothered at 8am with this daft idea there is only one interpretation of 'the science', and that's the science that suits you. Scientists are, as ever, divided. Media report what suits them, you believe what suits you.

Double jabbed, I'm getting on with my life now on the basis that 15 deaths from 66 million people makes it safer than crossing the road.

 

[existentialist]

Not sure I can bothered at 8am with this daft idea there is only one interpretation of 'the science', and that's the science that suits you. Scientists are, as ever, divided. Media report what suits them, you believe what suits you.

Double jabbed, I'm getting on with my life now on the basis that 15 deaths from 66 million people makes it safer than crossing the road.

Except that now, being less likely to die from Covid, you're going to have many more opportunities to cross the road, thereby putting yourself at even greater risk. Vaccines kill.

 

[Loose meat]

Anyone quantified this 'risk' of under 65s dying after a double jab.

1 : 1K?
1 : 5K?
1 : 10K?

 

[two sheds]

Not sure I can bothered at 8.15 am with this daft idea there is only one quantified 'risk' of under 65s dying after a double jab.

 

[Loose meat]

psst. quantify doesn't mean a single number, Einstein.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I wonder if there will be a reaction in a while from young people realising that they've become the subjects of a medical experiment in herd immunity.

Adding insult to injury there's now likely to be stuff you can only do if double-jabbed, which most young people are not.

 

[LDC]

Loose meat maybe outside the internet you have a fulfilling life, a loving family, and wide circle of friends. And there might even be a (well disguised) point worthy of discussion in what you're saying, but jesus fucking christ you don't half come across as a total cunt the way you're posting on this subject.

 

[bimble]

Personally not worried about dying of it at all Loose meat , what i'm worried about is the seemingly really high chance that if i do catch the bloody thing i get the long fatigue afterwards which goes on for unknown amount of time. I live alone self employed & an active sort of person and if i couldn't function i'd be totally fucked not just emotionally but practically financially all of it.

 

[LDC]

Personally not worried about dying of it at all, what i'm worried about is the seemingly really high chance that if i do catch the bloody thing i get the long fatigue afterwards that goes on for unknown amount of time. I live alone and if i couldn't function i'd be totally fucked,

Why do you think there's a high chance of that? Statistically there really isn't.

 

[bimble]

Why do you think there's a high chance of that? Statistically there really isn't.

Its because of some numbers i saw about women in my age group, i think it was 1 in 5 or something? But can't remember now. Maybe that's very wrong in which case please say so!

eg this sort of thing: Covid-19: Middle aged women face greater risk of debilitating long term symptoms
And they're saying that there's no obvious link between severity of illness and likelihood of long term impairment.

 

[two sheds]

psst. quantify doesn't mean a single number, Einstein.

psst. then don't suggest a single number, Einstein.

1 : 1K?
1 : 5K?
1 : 10K?

 

[Supine]

Numberwang!

 

[Loose meat]

Personally not worried about dying of it at all Loose meat , what i'm worried about is the seemingly really high chance that if i do catch the bloody thing i get the long fatigue afterwards which goes on for unknown amount of time. I live alone self employed & an active sort of person and if i couldn't function i'd be totally fucked not just emotionally but practically financially all of it.

Excellent. Extra caution seems to be the right choice for you, maybe for your mental health, maybe for your physical health.

 

[LDC]

bimble people are mixing up a whole host of symptoms and time scales. Some of the studies use 4 weeks post-positive test for still having any symptoms, which is a very short period of time. It's also a very complex mix of symptoms, and anything involving chronic fatigue is also a very complicated issue for a whole host of reasons (one of the reasons why it's not used as a key symptom for whether people have a covid infection or not).

 

[bimble]

Excellent. Extra caution seems to be the right choice for you, maybe for your mental health, maybe for your physical health.

How would you suggest i protect myself from you?

 

[bimble]

bimble people are mixing up a whole host of symptoms and time scales. Some of the studies use 4 weeks post-positive test for still having any symptoms, which is a very short period of time. It's also a very complex mix of symptoms, and anything involving chronic fatigue is also a very complicated issue for a whole host of reasons (one of the reasons why it's not used as a key symptom for whether people have a covid infection or not).

Yeah. I am aware that its a murky and not very clear (yet?) area, with a whole bunch of theories as to why women have so much poorer outcomes. I'm not hiding behind the sofa terrified just want to avoid it if i can & best way of doing that seems to be to not catch the virus in the first place.

There is something of a personal fear in this, because of knowing a lovely young woman who is completely unable to function due to some sort of version of what they call M.E (long before covid) . She needs people to do every personal thing for her, is often in a wheelchair, it really frightens me.