Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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2hats
Dust.
It's not clear to me precisely how the data are classified geospatially. Are counts by vaccinee GP registration or vaccine [assumed] home address? Perhaps by vaccination location in the absence of addresses? The map probably doesn't reflect where a not insignificant number of vaccinees spend most of their active time, where they are more likely to come into contact with greater numbers of others. See also: maps of case counts, especially as a proxy for infections.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Some details here:
Why is Cambridge’s vaccination rate so low?
While there are many opinions about the UK’s response to the Coronavirus pandemic, it’s widely agreed that the vaccination rollout has been one of the more successful aspects. This char…
philrodgers.wordpress.com
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Hope all this shit is getting archived for evidence after an even worse variant emerges from the exponentially-growing population of infected people and sends us right back to square one.
A year prior to this I had started carrying handsoap during the flu season because I got sick of being sick from bug on public transport (I assumed). I had seen a few people wearing masks prior, but very few, as you'd expect. Mainly people of far east asian extraction, which I only mention because perhaps that attitude, sensible, was informed by their experience with SARS which the rest of us generally didn't have. Seems like a good habit to emulate
2hats
Dust.
The ONS v NIMS population count disparity is well known. What is not very clear is precisely how vaccination (or case, etc) data is geospatially classified.Some details here:
Why is Cambridge’s vaccination rate so low?
While there are many opinions about the UK’s response to the Coronavirus pandemic, it’s widely agreed that the vaccination rollout has been one of the more successful aspects. This char…
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
I would have thought that was obvious.
Health Secretary in today's Fail on Sunday has made his intentions clear. And on twitter:
Since I'm not going to read the Heil on Sunday I will assume it's the same bananas attributed to him elsewhere. This idea of health benefits is deeply sinister. No wonder Boris picked him, probably on Sunak's reputation as they appear to share the same denialist dna, ideologically speaking. It's the new 'eat out to help out'. Play your plebian part.
The health effects - stress/domestic violence/mental health - were always there, thanks to capitalism and the feudal society he willingly advocates for. Had we approached the crisis properly those effects would be been lessened - are ther ecomparable outcomes in countries like Vietnam or New Zealand? In the end he's just revealing the failings of his own government. They mismanaged a crisis that exacerbated the problems already amped up through ten years of neoliberal realignment. All of this is on his government, and now him.
This does not bode well for the the direction of travel with him at the helm. Not that it was ever going to be much better under Hanock, and thinking about what's under Hancock these days isn't something I care to do.
2hats
Dust.
Evidently these matters are not to you.
Plague island, baby
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Wow you really are supercilious aren’t you. A shame you often don’t seem to know what you’re on about despite the regurgitation of other sources that you’re so good at.
Is there any evidence yet as to whether vaccines prevent people both contracting the virus and spreading it?
If they do not in fact stop you contracting, and spreading the virus rather than protecting you from severe illness, what is the alternative to eventually just opening everything up anyway.
Note this is not a defence of this shambolic vnal government. But if we took I hypothetical best case scenario where all adults have been double jabbed by the end of August.
If they do not in fact stop you contracting, and spreading the virus rather than protecting you from severe illness, what is the alternative to eventually just opening everything up anyway.
Note this is not a defence of this shambolic vnal government. But if we took I hypothetical best case scenario where all adults have been double jabbed by the end of August.
Supine
Newt Member
TBD on exact numbers. Vaccinated people do still catch and can transmit covid. Definitely less than unvaccinated people though.
2hats
Dust.
Goodbye.
2hats
Dust.
Loose meat
Well-Known Member
15 deaths yesterday. Still 300 on machines. 78.9 million jabs given. Steady as she goes.
Storm Fox
Trying the find the next noun to verb
But the cases are still rapidly rising. Each case rolls the dice of new mutation. A mutation that could work around the vaccine and we will be back to square one. Why is this so difficult to understand? We need to keep some controls in place for a few more weeks until the cases start falling.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
As a Londoner I can confirm that everyone I know who has been offered the vaccine has taken it. London is a lot younger than the rest of the UK, so I imagine that's the main reason (there will be plenty of under 30s who have booked their 1st dose but not got it yet).
Could also be that well known NHS registration miscounting thing to be honest, lots of people (especially students) register with GPs and then forget to register somewhere else when they move. Many Londoners left the country and aren't coming back, so there's that as well if those people are included in the calculations.
Finally London also has a high proportion of vulnerable and minority groups that are less able to access a vaccine or don't want to get one.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Scientists think there will be new variants every year just like flu, and we will produce new vaccines every year, just like flu, and that's how we will keep it under control. Most likely the vaccine will only be offered to older people and the vulnerable.
Storm Fox
Trying the find the next noun to verb
But Covid is a lot me severe than flu. More deaths, higher R0 value and more long term health issues. So more people will need to be vaccinated annually. Are you willing to pay higher taxes for this or wait for a few more weeks?
Chilli.s
mingling jets and statuettes
In the UK it is as always a class thing. The richer you are the easier it is to distance from possible transmission and the easier it is to look after yourself and family at home. The poor better get back to work as toffs pensions are going to suffer.
The get back to normal narrative is all about the economy, the awful newspapers have been haemorrhaging money and only sell papers when people buy them on the way to work, so they happily spin that freedom nonsense.
Irreversible end of restrictions? irresponsible wishes unless you are a time traveller.
The get back to normal narrative is all about the economy, the awful newspapers have been haemorrhaging money and only sell papers when people buy them on the way to work, so they happily spin that freedom nonsense.
Irreversible end of restrictions? irresponsible wishes unless you are a time traveller.
Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
For me it's two concerns. One, is long covid. Having rates of infection this high and going ahead with opening up will push rates higher than we've ever seen them. Not enough people are vaccinated yet so far too many are vulnerable. A significant percentage of people who get it suffer with long covid, even with the vaccine you're not safe from it. More vaccinated people and lower case numbers means slower and less spread as vaccinated people are less likely to catch and pass it on than unvaccinated.
Second and more pressing concern is variants that escape vaccine entirely. This is the ideal scenario for that. A novel virus running this rampant coming into high numbers of vaccinated people gives it more chance to figure out ways to get round our immune systems. Flu virus mutates only slightly every year whereas this one mutates more significantly and faster.
I may be wrong about all this but these are my concerns about it. I'm scared of long covid. One of my best friends has ME and it completely altered the path her life was on. At this rate I'm not sure I'll ever go to a packed gig or club again.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Thats a general approach but there are loads of potential timing flaws.
We've now got some sense of how long a mass vaccination programme takes, and what sort of rate of supply has been available to a country like the UK that is prepared to grab as much as it can.
And we've heard various confident claims about how quickly vaccines can be adapted to include new characteristics of the virus.
We've also seen how quickly a new variant with a big advantage can take hold, even with some restrictions and behavioural changes in place, and how long it takes to get a handle on the variants details, study it to see where its advantage may be found etc.
What we havent had the opportunity to put all of the above together into a scenario where we need to urgently respond to a new strain because it escapes a lot of prior immunity, and is fit enough for purpose with key advantages over its rivals, so that it has the potential to dominate. How quickly will it take in practice to offer protection to the population in such circumstances?
If we look at the timing of the gap between our authorities suspecting a new variant was going to swamp this country, and the wave of that variant actually doing so, the timescales dont imply success with the above.
Rather the authorities will be rather reliant on the idea that the first new variant to actually cause this sort of immune escape and become the dominant strain, will not in practice be exactly the same as being back to square one with a new, novel virus that the population has no prior protection against. They will be hoping that the vaccines and prior infections still do something against the new strain, that effectiveness is reduced but not obliterated. Or that the variant will also have some disadvantages which end up buying us more time. We've seen with the two variants most relevant to the UK so far that they showed signs of doing a bit on the immune escape front, just not enough to make existing vaccines really quite bad, just slightly less good than before. They are examples of something a traditional vaccine update & distribution schedule could hope to cope with, by gradually evolving the vaccines used to cope with gradually decreasing effectiveness. And the authorities lean on other stuff during any tricky periods, eg by relying on the vaccine protection still being enough to work with their numbers game. The sort of test the UK currently faces as we wait to fully establish how bad this Delta wave will be. If we get away with that I will probably have further comment, and if we fail I certainly will. For example the Delta strain has certainly complicated the numbers game because of how much less protection one dose of current vaccines seems to offer against it, but the results are better with second dose so we could lean on solutions involving dose timing this time, to try to make the numbers game turn out ok again. But there are various combinations of parameters that the current shit government approach has no chance against, and this current wave will certainly help inform my thinking on that.
I am not able to judge how likely a much worse scenario will be. eg a mutation that does really cause a giant problem in one go in terms of immune escape. We are bound to learn more about this entire area as we move further into an era where the virus will really need to gain an immune escape advantage in order to thrive. The seelction pressure is being ramped up and I am not arrogant or self-assured enough to think I already know what the big stories will be in that era. It will be a long time before I can remove the idea that the virus will make fools of the UK approach from my list of possibilities, and I dont think I can take any reassurances on that front too seriously, only with the passing of time will the ultimate guide to that end up writing itself before our very eyes.
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Doctor Carrot
Marxist Henchman
I wrote earlier about how coming out of this we had a real chance to make public space more welcoming for people.
We could've done this by still limiting numbers into shops, increasing capacity on public transport and having more single seats for those travelling solo. Not only will this be more welcoming for people who get anxious in crowded supermarkets, transport etc it will also help us live with this and mitigate other respiratory illnesses going forward.
We could've done this by still limiting numbers into shops, increasing capacity on public transport and having more single seats for those travelling solo. Not only will this be more welcoming for people who get anxious in crowded supermarkets, transport etc it will also help us live with this and mitigate other respiratory illnesses going forward.
Loose meat
Well-Known Member
Cases are rising, few are dying. That's always been the plan. The 80 millionth jab will be done this week.
Looking at the West End yesterday, people are making their choices.
Storm Fox
Trying the find the next noun to verb
That doesn't answer my point does? Every case increases the chance of a mutation. A mutation that could evade the vaccine, or do you disagree with this basic science?
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
I feel like the whole world has an overpopulation/overcrowding problem, but it's especially true in cities (which is where most people live).
Climate change is only going to make that problem worse as less and less of the earth becomes habitable. It's a bit sad how short term people are that the whole world stops when people start getting sick, but everyone carries on as usual when the whole planet is sick.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
It definitely feels like we are flying blind with this whole opening up thing. But let's be honest, most of the restrictions were relaxed anyway when we came out of lockdown and that's why cases have gone sky high. Doesn't help when high profile government figures don't obey their own rules either...
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