Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Yeah there is no point trying to read anything at all into those sorts of wobbles, such fluctuations are perfectly normal.

Plus Wales dont seem to report cases over weekends, or at least that data doesnt make it to the UK dashboard, so Wales contribution to todays reported cases is 0, compared to 570 yesterday,

 

[cupid_stunt]

Cases down slightly today. Perhaps a corner has been turned?

Daily reported figures are always up & down, the 7-averages give a better guide.

And, talking about those 7-averages, regarding hospital admissions they have been floating around +10% for a good period of time, until yesterday when it went up to about +16%, and today a whopping +24.2%.

That includes the usual reporting lag, so is only up to 29th June.

Seeing it change from +10% to +24% in a few days seems worrying to me, OK, it's from small overall numbers, but we all know how small numbers can become big numbers very quickly, if the percentage increases keep growing like that.

 

[2hats]

But also worth remembering that number of people actually testing positive is not at all the same as the estimates for what proportion of the population are actually infected.

eg the ONS infection survey:

• In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to increase in the week ending 26 June 2021; we estimate that 211,100 people within the community population in England had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 185,200 to 239,300), equating to around 1 in 260 people.

See also REACT (round for the period late May/early June suggested infection was at least three times that indicated by daily testing).

 

[elbows]

Daily reported figures are always up & down, the 7-averages give a better guide.

And, talking about those 7-averages, regarding hospital admissions they have been floating around +10% for a good period of time, until yesterday when it went up to about +16%, and today a whopping +24.2%.

That includes the usual reporting lag, so is only up to 29th June.

Seeing it change from +10% to +24% in a few days seems worrying to me, OK, it's from small overall numbers, but we all know how small numbers can become big numbers very quickly, if the percentage increases keep growing like that.

What you have seen there is driven by both England but now Scotland too. I usually post figures for England because there are additional delays for countries like Scotland that make the UK dashboard figure extra laggy. eg England wont report over the weekend these days, but if you click the by nation stuff on the dashboard and then click data, you can see that a figure of 331 is the latest for England, for June 30th, an increase from 283 admissions in England the day before. The 331 figure was already available on the NHS website version of the data yesterday, so its already included in the recent hospitalisations in England graph I posted yesterday evening #38,875

I have neglected Sotland a lot with hospital data because I didnt get the same level of detail or same frequency of updates via the UK dashboard, but since they are ahead of England with this wave and with the timing of their school summer holidays, I will be paying much more attention in the next critical days. What happens next with their cases and hospitalisations will probably contain some very strong clues about what the story of this wave will turn out to be for the UK.

I shall make a Scotland graph or two shortly.

 

[2hats]

Worth remembering that 256 in 100,000 means less than 3 in every thousand people so the chances of any random person on the street having it are still pretty low!

The infections aren't randomly distributed though. They are (inevitably) concentrated in clusters.

 

[elbows]

See also REACT (round for the period late May/early June suggested infection was at least three times that indicated by daily testing).

I've lost track of whether they or anybody else uses such estimates to keep a rough running total of estimated number of infections so far. The UK dashboard is up to over 4.8 million confirmed positive cases so far, but we know it missed the vast bulk of the first wave ones in addition to all the ones it hasnt picked up as we've gone through subsequent waves.

 

[2hats]

I've lost track of whether they or anybody else uses such estimates to keep a rough running total of estimated number of infections so far. The UK dashboard is up to over 4.8 million confirmed positive cases so far, but we know it missed the vast bulk of the first wave ones in addition to all the ones it hasnt picked up as we've gone through subsequent waves.

Could easily be in the 10-20 million ballpark (maybe 3-4 times numbers from daily testing - DOI: 10.1101/2021.02.09.21251411).

 

[bimble]

Are people as ready to get themselves tested as they were last year or a few months ago ? I’d be surprised tbh, just going by the general sod it It’s all over kind of attitude.

 

[iona]

Are people as ready to get themselves tested as they were last year it a few months ago ? I’d be surprised tbh, just going by the general sod it It’s all over kind of attitude.

Anecdata here but the bloke I was working for yesterday casually mentioned at the end of the day that he and his wife have both had bad colds all week, and seemed baffled by my suggestion that they should maybe do a lateral flow test at least

 

[elbows]

OK 4 different graphs of the same hospital admissions/diagnoses data for Scotland. Two use logarithmic scales and two are zoomed in on the more recent period.

Exponential growth at a pretty consistent rate has been seen so far. Not as steep as seen in previous waves (longer doubling time).

When I highlighted Scotland as making an increasingly notable contribution to the UK admissions increases mentioned earlier, its because Scotland has reached the point where in order for that exponential growth to continue on the same trajectory, the scary bend upwards when viewed on a linear scale has to begin, and indeed has begun to show up in the last few days worth of data. (an exponential trajectory that is shown by the relatively straight lines of the logarithmic graphs as opposed to the curves of the linear graphs).

As with all the other data we are viewing in horror at the moment, the key questions are whether any of these trajectories change, and when. If we assume a constant exponential trajectory then it is trivial to just keep drawing straight lines at the same angle they've been at on the exponential graphs, to see what sorts of levels they reach at different points in time in future. Which still doesnt tell us when thinks will peak and decline, but at least allows a proper sense of when the shit will hit the fan if things just keep carrying on as they are. And obviously when we look at hospital admissions data, we expect it to have a relationship to levels of infection at an earlier point in time. So we should suppose that until some time after Scotlands cases peak, we should expect these hospital numbers to keep doing roughly what they have been doing (at least when viewed using logarithmic scale, as opposed to the curved nature of linear graphs luring people into a false sense of security and then boom).

Since I tend to place quite a lot of emphasis in the role of hospital infections as additional pandemic wave drivers, I do not rule out tipping points on that front giving an additional scary boost to the numbers and trajectory. But I've not tended to catch a clear and obvious sight of this in overall data in the past. If the relationship between case figures and hospitalisations, including the timing, is less neat and tidy than some people were expecting this time, then I might look in that direction for possible explanations.

 

[l'Otters]

(Not least because most people who have it should be isolating not out on the street...)

Yeah but the majority of people don’t because we don’t have adequate financial or any other kind of support in place.


Some individual councils have rearranged their resources to provide more comprehensive support for people to isolate. But one of the govt ministers admitted they don’t want to increase the support available or make it easier to claim it in case people were to fake their results and claim it fraudulently.

Just checked. 11% of people instructed to quarantine / isolate actually do so. Had to double check because its so utterly wrong.

 

[2hats]

NE takes off, in slightly older cohorts than recent, it would appear.

 

[elbows]

NE takes off, in slightly older cohorts than recent, it would appear.

Yeah I've been going on about this recently and its a reason I've started showing graphs of the North East more.

This is the latest positive case data for the North East, using 7 day averages of cases by specimen date.

Although the North East sticks out in terms of what stage its at and its trajectory, to my mind it remains to be seen whether they are really the odd one out, or whether it was actually the North West that was the odd one out. What happens in regions such as the West and East Midlands in the coming days will offer some clues about that.

And part of the reasons I've been posting age charts in recent times is because I thought there might be some misconceptions about age groups being infected. Partly due to the usual nature of exponential growth when levels are still relatively low, hence my inclusion of stuff using logarithmic sale.

 

[glitch hiker]

Oxford's not looking too clever:

 

[elbows]

Yeah and in additional to general rises seen pretty much everywhere, many places with student populations have seen extra rapid increase of positive cases recently.

 

[Elpenor]

I’m wondering what else I can do practically. Can work at home, don’t go anywhere apart from supermarket, wear a mask when I do.

 

[Loose meat]

18 deaths yesterday. Still 300 on machines. 78.5 million vaccinations given. Steady as she goes.

 

[elbows]

See also REACT (round for the period late May/early June suggested infection was at least three times that indicated by daily testing).

Oh and I forgot ZOE do their own estimates too.

 

[Supine]

I’m wondering what else I can do practically. Can work at home, don’t go anywhere apart from supermarket, wear a mask when I do.

You’re doing enough

 

[elbows]

This is easily the most surreal period of the pandemic for me, apart from March 2020 which will always have its own special status in this circus.

The press tonight are full of more tales about things that will be removed on July 19th, and lots of optimistic takes on the situation. It is that and the different sense of the pandemic being over that many have this time which makes it so surreal.

Plus I dont have the simple guide of lockdown timing giving us strong clues about what peak timing to expect of cases, hospitalisations and deaths this time.

I suppose the earliest I might ascertain how bad things will get is if Scotlands overall number of cases peaks real soon, and then clearly fall, assuming their hospital admissions then follow within a week or so. That wont give me a precise guide, but it will offer strong clues. As will whatever happens next for the North East and its alarming indicators.

I suppose as previously implied via modelling, that I still expect to get a much better idea about this wave in July. I just dont know exactly how much of July will pass before we get a proper sense of whether the government have 'gotten away with' their chosen approach, or whether it busts past their expected limits and spoils the current plan. In the meantime both what they can live with and what they cant will resemble grim stuff for a bit. And its pretty likely they will announce the details of the July 19th plan before it is clear to us via real data which of these will become reality. But by July 19th itself we might well know, or at least have firmer suspicions.

 

[blameless77]

Thanks Elbows for sharing some informative charts. What really stands out in the data is that after so many people passed away in the initial wave, deaths fell down to record lows.

The irony of Covid being a sh!tshow in this country and so many vulnerable people dying is that we now have an older population that is on average much healthier and better placed to survive future flu outbreaks. This "dry tinder" effect is why you never see bad flu seasons back to back.

For the record I'm not saying that Covid only affects the old/vulnerable, but it has hit those groups the hardest, especially those suffering from pre existing health conditions (technical term is comorbidities)

In conclusion between the successful vaccine rollout and the built up immunity in the population, I'm highly optimistic we will genuinely be able to go back to normal this year. There's even a glimmer of hope for those of us with family in the EU that travel may restart for the double vaccinated.

Maybe some of the testing infrastructure developed to fight cove could be redeployed for other endemic viruses? Multiplex?

 

[bimble]

Quite impressed, i got a text yesterday from some mobile number saying there's space in the next few days if i wanted to bring my 2nd jab forward and so that's rebooked for Wednesday now, even though the website said there was nothing available.
Felt like there was an actual human there on the other end just doing their best to get the thing done as efficiently as possible.

 

[LDC]

Bit weird seeing all the crowds going wild watching the football last night, how are they not going to be massive spreading events?!

 

[baldrick]

Quite impressed, i got a text yesterday from some mobile number saying there's space in the next few days if i wanted to bring my 2nd jab forward and so that's rebooked for Wednesday now, even though the website said there was nothing available.
Felt like there was an actual human there on the other end just doing their best to get the thing done as efficiently as possible.

Yeah the sense I'm getting throughout this whole thing is that there is a whole bunch of people in different roles involved in vaccine rollout, public health, education, media, data, epidemiology, and so on all doing their best to get the right messages across and get things done that are being utterly hamstrung by government policy. Nevertheless, they keep trying.

 

[LDC]

Yeah the sense I'm getting throughout this whole thing is that there is a whole bunch of people in different roles involved in vaccine rollout, public health, education, media, data, epidemiology, and so on all doing their best to get the right messages across and get things done that are being utterly hamstrung by government policy. Nevertheless, they keep trying.

Someone I know well works reasonably high up in a local (council area) response to the pandemic and the area mostly works well. I know they've done lots of good work on vaccine hesistancy and tailored messaging for restrictions (for example) and they say the same pretty much; that they manage despite central government rather than being helped by them.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Bit weird seeing all the crowds going wild watching the football last night, how are they not going to be massive spreading events?!

Narrator: They were.

 

[Aladdin]

I do wonder just how many people up and down the country have been traumatised by this since March 2020. I've heard of people who literally haven't ventured outside for 15 months.

I'm one of those 16 monthers.
And I'm fucking livid at the attitude some people have..."I really need to go to a restaurant and dine indoors ...my mental health is suffering cos I cant do that". Well...fuck off...cunt.
This is the me me me crowd. The ones who have not lost family to covid. The ones whose lives have not been impacted by the horrors of covid.

I'll gladly do another 15 months indoors to make sure this virus doesn't get the chance to kill me or my family all of whom are very vulnerable.

People are stupid. And stupidity will be the driver of the fourth and fifth wave.

So wear the mask, maintain social distance and stick to the public health guidance.

 

[bimble]

Reports that everything, all measures, including wearing masks in any situation are going to be made a matter of 'personal choice' from the 19th. I'm a healthy person who doesn't have to use the tube or do face to face work or anything and this makes me feel very uneasy. Must be very scary for a lot of people.

 

[bimble]

Just read this in Indian news:
'Children aged up to 15 years accounted for 4% of Covid cases in Gurugram during the height of the second wave between April 1 and May 31. Of the 4,676 children who were infected during this period, 94 (2%) had to be hospitalised, according to data sourced from the health department..'
1 in every 50 infected children needed hospital treatment? That is really bad.

 

[kalidarkone]

Reports that everything, all measures, including wearing masks in any situation are going to be made a matter of 'personal choice' from the 19th. I'm a healthy person who doesn't have to use the tube or do face to face work or anything and this makes me feel very uneasy. Must be very scary for a lot of people.

Tbh, from what I've seen in London, this already applies.
I'll be wearing my mask indoors for the foreseeable and for the same reason that I have done since last year...that I don't want to pass it on.