Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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Supine
Newt Member
I was so depressed after watching her presentation I had to go out and walk up a mountain!
prunus
Tick tock.
Really?I rarely give Covid a second thought now tbh, even though I'm regularly in and out of bars, restaurants, shops. Always wear a mask and sanitise - and I probably always will now for the rest of my life (can't believe I used to go through a whole day in London without washing my hands - ride the tube, buy a sarnie, grab a coffee - might wash up in the evening, might not). Dunno, just stopped worrying about it, if it happens it happens, but y'know...
If people start to act in a blasé manner with respect to covid infection then (probably other) people will end up disabled or dead that wouldn’t have ended up that way with a more cautious attitude on the part of the former people. It’s not a judgement, it’s just a fact. How much (and for how long) are people prepared to modify their behaviour in order to save the life or livelihood of probably a complete stranger? We don’t really know. But also I think a lot of people don’t really know that the causal link exists.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Better to walk up one than stare at the horrible mountains in the data!
Loose meat
Well-Known Member
Really enjoying the simple but effective graphing in The Guadian.
The tale now seems to be in the comparison of this wave with the second. Looking at the charts shows what an enormous calculated risk/gamble/hold-you-nerve moment the UK is in. The world watches:
www.theguardian.com
The tale now seems to be in the comparison of this wave with the second. Looking at the charts shows what an enormous calculated risk/gamble/hold-you-nerve moment the UK is in. The world watches:
Covid UK: coronavirus cases, deaths and vaccinations today
Are coronavirus cases rising in your local area and nationally? Check week-on-week changes across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and the latest figures from public health authorities
elbows
Well-Known Member
Since the total number of daily positive cases by specimen date for the North East is approaching the highest level seen in the last peak, here is a different look at how the different age groups make up those totals.
First graph is the latest data (with most data for cases with specimen date of 1st July not yet available), second graph is from the end of 2020/start of 2021 peak.
First graph is the latest data (with most data for cases with specimen date of 1st July not yet available), second graph is from the end of 2020/start of 2021 peak.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
This all really depends on what the consequences of being vaccinated are though - does being vaccinated protect you from 'long covid' in the same way it protects you from death/hospitalisation? IN other words do we expect the numbers of people suffering it to track the 'cases' graphs or the 'hospitalisations' graphs.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
elbows - thanks for those graphs. It fits with what I know anecdotally.
Although interesting data to examine, as I'm in the North-East I'm finding this third wave to be in the depressingly "I told you so" territory.
The only bright spot I can see, is that the vaccination programme has "protected" a lot of the more vulnerable people who were getting infected during the holiday seasons in 2020.
But that is being made up for by the relatively large numbers of un-protected under 30s who are getting infected in 2021 ...
It is re-enforcing my inclination to haul up the drawbridge - despite needing to travel out of the area for work in the next two to three weeks. I am double-jabbed, but still anxious. {especially after Marr getting a case}
Although interesting data to examine, as I'm in the North-East I'm finding this third wave to be in the depressingly "I told you so" territory.
The only bright spot I can see, is that the vaccination programme has "protected" a lot of the more vulnerable people who were getting infected during the holiday seasons in 2020.
But that is being made up for by the relatively large numbers of un-protected under 30s who are getting infected in 2021 ...
It is re-enforcing my inclination to haul up the drawbridge - despite needing to travel out of the area for work in the next two to three weeks. I am double-jabbed, but still anxious. {especially after Marr getting a case}
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
There's not enough information on that yet.
Personally, I've got two mates locally suffering long covid for over 6 months, neither had been hospitalised.
So, I think there remains a risk of long covid for vaccinated people contracting covid, but not requiring hospital treatment.
Brainaddict
slight system overdrive
Yeah, we don't know yet, it will almost certainly be somewhere between, but I suspect closer to tracking cases, given how many people with mild covid have had long covid. We'll see, but in terms of the personal risks people feel up for taking, I think it's important to understand what the risks are, and if you don't happen to know a few people with long covid (as much of my family doesn't) it is still easy to see it as an unimportant risk, either because it's hard to understand what fatigue* means, or because the case numbers have been low profile in the media most of the time.
*Of course many people have a wide array of other symptoms, but that is the most common one.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The fucking Daily Mail finally figured out that current self-isolation for contacts rules + the rather high number of cases = rather a lot of disruption. So of course they've written a load of shit on their front page about what pressure Johnson is under to change the rules, and their latest pathetic front page headline cries 'dont let NHS app cripple Britain'.
Obviously I see it from a different angle, dont let that many people get infected if you dont want that sort of disruption. But they dont care about the number of infections, just their immature, unrealistic race to normality.
These rules are one of the only brakes the government have left available for this wave without having to u-turn, its nowhere near as comprehensive as a lockdown but it should still start to grind a chunk of 'normal life' to a halt during the most insense part of a wave. I've spoken previously about how I'm sure they would like to change these rules eventually, but this wave has come too soon, and looks too large and aggressive for them to attempt such a thing right now. Though its true that this government are so shit at handling the pandemic that I suppose I should not rule out the possibility of them changing stuff on this front ridiculously early. I dont think they've given me any particular reason to think it will happen as soon as the fucking Daily Mail would like, or go as far as they would like. But there will certainly be various sorts of pressure in the weeks ahead as cases will presumably reach stunning levels, leading to all sorts of mess and stupid, deadly noises from some quarters.
Obviously I see it from a different angle, dont let that many people get infected if you dont want that sort of disruption. But they dont care about the number of infections, just their immature, unrealistic race to normality.
These rules are one of the only brakes the government have left available for this wave without having to u-turn, its nowhere near as comprehensive as a lockdown but it should still start to grind a chunk of 'normal life' to a halt during the most insense part of a wave. I've spoken previously about how I'm sure they would like to change these rules eventually, but this wave has come too soon, and looks too large and aggressive for them to attempt such a thing right now. Though its true that this government are so shit at handling the pandemic that I suppose I should not rule out the possibility of them changing stuff on this front ridiculously early. I dont think they've given me any particular reason to think it will happen as soon as the fucking Daily Mail would like, or go as far as they would like. But there will certainly be various sorts of pressure in the weeks ahead as cases will presumably reach stunning levels, leading to all sorts of mess and stupid, deadly noises from some quarters.
l'Otters
.
That last sentence - yes. Conversations I have about risk mitigation seem to always veer towards assessment of personal risk. The most frustratingly blinkered reaction is when people frame my caution or sense as about personal fear and anxiety. It does come up with friends who work in care, or live with clinically vulnerable relatives.
Even when it’s framed as about direct contact with clinically vulnerable people, whether through work or home/family situation, there’s been some degree of people sort of accepting more cautious behaviour as reasonable for that specific context. But not taken on board as something everyone should be thinking about. And there’s a definite sense that if I or a friend weren’t in such a position our approach wouldn’t be taken seriously / boundaries wouldn’t be respected on our account alone.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
There is a good Nature article here that I found useful in understanding more about long Covid.
The four most urgent questions about long COVID
Scientists are starting to get insights into the lingering disorder that affects some people infected with SARS-CoV-2 — but many mysteries remain unsolved.
www.nature.com
The quote saying "Covid is like a nuclear bomb to the immune system" and the speculation that long Covid is an autoimmune disease makes me think that the vaccines should help a lot because they train the immune system, making Covid infection come as less of a shock.
But it's all speculation at this stage. Long Covid being "long" means we have to wait a while for the data to come through.
andysays
Love and solidarity
As I think I've mentioned elsewhere in this discussion, we have for decades now been generally encouraged to think individually, not socially or collectively, and it's really difficult for people to make that switch (even if the government, media etc were framing it in that way, which they aren't).
So in addition to all the other reasons why the transmission and effects of Covid have been worse than they need have been (and there are clearly many other reasons) one is that as a society we are struggling to make the shift required from thinking as individuals to thinking in wider social terms.
TL;DR It's Thatcher's fault
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
The timescales involved mean we effectively have no data on the effects of the vaccine on long covid. But if case numbers are going to continue to rise unchecked then any protective effect of vaccines is likely to be swamped by the sheer number of cases.
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
It's effectively impossible for individuals to accurately judge population-scale risks though. The decisions have to be made on a centralised basis, ideally by some kind of AI that doesn't ever read the papers.
And I say that as an instinctive anarchist with an innate distrust of technology.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
It is important to remember that 'long covid' isn't a single thing you get and then have forever, and some of it is very clearly understood, such as the issues suffered with long term ICU stays. Most people don't get long covid at all, those that do often have some symptoms for a number of weeks and which then pass, and even those with much longer term symptoms might eventually recover. And the symptoms are a mix of things, some that can be diagnosed with tests, and some are less easy to find an identifiable physical cause for.
Anecdata again, but I only personally know 3 people with any sign of long covid, one had long term loss of smell that came back after about 6-8 months (but was otherwise fine), one had occassional chest pain and shortness of breath on exertion that also passed after a few months (and nothing was found on investigation), and then one felt fatigued and still does 6 months post-infection, but they feel it is improving slowly and they admit themselves they were very run down and over worked before catching the virus and they think that contributed. All 3 had what I would say had mild to moderate symptoms while infected (no hospital admission but felt rough). Just realized all 3 are women in their 30s fwiw.
I suspect one of the ways to help avoid some of the long covid symptoms is looking after yourself well while ill, and then understanding it might take a long time to recover to full fitness, and adjust life stuff to account for this rather than rushing back to everything quickly (E2A: if you can, know that's not always easy for some folks with busy lives.)
Anecdata again, but I only personally know 3 people with any sign of long covid, one had long term loss of smell that came back after about 6-8 months (but was otherwise fine), one had occassional chest pain and shortness of breath on exertion that also passed after a few months (and nothing was found on investigation), and then one felt fatigued and still does 6 months post-infection, but they feel it is improving slowly and they admit themselves they were very run down and over worked before catching the virus and they think that contributed. All 3 had what I would say had mild to moderate symptoms while infected (no hospital admission but felt rough). Just realized all 3 are women in their 30s fwiw.
I suspect one of the ways to help avoid some of the long covid symptoms is looking after yourself well while ill, and then understanding it might take a long time to recover to full fitness, and adjust life stuff to account for this rather than rushing back to everything quickly (E2A: if you can, know that's not always easy for some folks with busy lives.)
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Yossarian
Get thee behind me, Santa
It's going to be years before we can effectively gauge the effects of long COVID - one thing a study of 2 million people who tested positive in the US found was that many people who had mild symptoms or no symptoms at all ended up experiencing new health problems months after they were infected.
www.nytimes.com
Many Post-Covid Patients Are Experiencing New Medical Problems, Study Finds (Published 2021)
An analysis of health insurance records of almost two million coronavirus patients found new issues in nearly a quarter — including those whose Covid infection was mild or asymptomatic.
andysays
Love and solidarity
I'm not talking about accurately judging population-scale risks.
I'm talking about simply recognising that our individual behaviours have consequences for those around us and that, especially in a pandemic situation, we need to modify our behaviour even if we don't (can't) have an accurate calculation of the potential consequences of not doing so. And I mean independently of an authoritarian government telling what we must do.
Obviously, some people can and have done that. But my contention is that four decades (more, probably) of indoctrination into individualistic ways of thinking and behaviour make it more difficult, in general, for people to do that.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Most people don't get it, but as many as 10% do according to that Nature article. I have to admit that's a lot more than I thought.
But as you say it's not necessarily a chronic condition, most people would expect to get gradually better over time provided they are able to rest properly and let their body recover.
Fully agree that the best way to protect against Covid symptoms (long or short) is to be generally healthy and well rested. It's anecdotal, but when professional athletes get it they never seem to have any strong symptoms. And of course being vaccinated should help a lot.
The famous example that scares people at the moment is Andrew Marr but it's worth noting he's sadly in a vulnerable group (over 60 and stroke/tumor survivor according to Wikipedia) where the immune response might not be as strong.
bimble
floofy
i have an anecdote that points the other way, i think we just need to wait for more info.
bimble
floofy
Government reportedly considering making it so that if you have been fully jabbed you're exempt form having to isolate after contact with an infectee, you'd just be 'advised' to test yourself thats all.
This seems problematic in various ways. I get why they would want to do it though.
This seems problematic in various ways. I get why they would want to do it though.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
It's going to be years before we can effectively gauge the effects of long COVID - one thing a study of 2 million people who tested positive in the US found was that many people who had mild symptoms or no symptoms at all ended up experiencing new health problems months after they were infected.
Many Post-Covid Patients Are Experiencing New Medical Problems, Study Finds (Published 2021)
An analysis of health insurance records of almost two million coronavirus patients found new issues in nearly a quarter — including those whose Covid infection was mild or asymptomatic.
One of the less reported aspects seems to be the number Covid does on you long term, a huge chunk of recovered patients ended up dying soonish after - officially recorded as something else but it's clear it really damages you
For me there was improvement over the first six months or so. Since then it hasn't got better and I'm expecting it will be with me for life. I can understand the desire to not sound too discouraging to people with long covid but tbh I'm getting tired of the optimistic takes.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
She's chosen the dates so it doesn't show the much worse second wave. I prefer the government one which has a bit more context.
Could also be a lot better though, and it's a worrying trend.
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