Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[Supine]

Interesting contingency plans getting reported

Health chiefs' Covid winter plan with masks and social distancing for 5 years

EXCLUSIVE: A draft blueprint drawn up by officials is said to include options to make masks mandatory and bring back social distancing in future outbreaks

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[2hats]

European holidays could be off limits to 5m Britons given Indian-made AstraZeneca jab

The jab, authorised in the UK in February, is not yet approved in Europe or recognised under EU’s new vaccine passport scheme

www.telegraph.co.uk

In somewhat related matters...

Joint COVAX Statement on the Equal Recognition of Vaccines

COVAX was built on the principle of equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines to protect the health of people all across the globe. That means protecting their lives and livelihoods, including their ability to travel and conduct trade. As travel and other possibilities begin to open up in some parts...

www.who.int

 

[2hats]

Reports from Israel suggest negotiations are underway to transfer around 1 million unused doses of Pfizer to the UK within the next week as their current stock would expire before a second dose could be administered. In return the UK would forward to Israel an equivalent number of doses from their upcoming shipments from Pfizer.

N12 - מגעים מתקדמים בין ישראל לבריטניה על חילופי חיסונים

במשרד הבריאות חוששים מאובדן של מאות אלפי מנות וחשבו על פתרון יצירתי • בריטניה עשויה לקבל מיליון חיסונים כבר בשבוע הבא

www.mako.co.il

Failing that they would seek an extension of validity from the manufacturer.

Scratch that...

Million Pfizer jabs face being dumped after Israel-UK swap deal fails

Israel says technical issues have scuppered deal to give UK Covid vaccines expiring on 30 July

www.theguardian.com

Pfizer won't extend the validation date.

 

[Teaboy]

Scratch that...

Million Pfizer jabs face being dumped after Israel-UK swap deal fails

Israel says technical issues have scuppered deal to give UK Covid vaccines expiring on 30 July

www.theguardian.com

Pfizer won't extend the validation date.

That's a scandal. Not Pfizer's decision but that this situation was allowed to arise.

 

[Yossarian]

I shouldn't be shocked by anything at this point but it's still jarring to see Britain's daily case numbers are now almost double those of the US.

 

[StoneRoad]

Scratch that...

Million Pfizer jabs face being dumped after Israel-UK swap deal fails

Israel says technical issues have scuppered deal to give UK Covid vaccines expiring on 30 July

www.theguardian.com

Pfizer won't extend the validation date.

That the situation has arisen is the real scandal. What a waste of a very scarce resource !

Bizarre about the validation date ...
Surely, if the stuff has been continuously & correctly stored, such cryogenic conditions should "preserve" the vaccine almost indefinitely ?

 

[magneze]

What, and hit profits?

 

[Riklet]

That's a scandal. Not Pfizer's decision but that this situation was allowed to arise.

Yeah shocking that apartheid Israel sat on them rather than giving them to Palestinians or donating them to Covax months ago. Probably cos theyre struggling with vaccinating younger people. Clearly some vaccine hestiancy in Israel.

 

[Supine]

Bizarre about the validation date ...
Surely, if the stuff has been continuously & correctly stored, such cryogenic conditions should "preserve" the vaccine almost indefinitely ?

Unfortunately they preserve them for the shelf life. Vaccines are inherently unstable.

 

[platinumsage]

Yeah shocking that apartheid Israel sat on them rather than giving them to Palestinians or donating them to Covax months ago. Probably cos theyre struggling with vaccinating younger people. Clearly some vaccine hestiancy in Israel.

The Palestinian Authority rejected them, and previous offers of vaccines from the Israeli government. I guess they want to demonstrate they are capable of doing it themselves.

 

[wemakeyousoundb]

That the situation has arisen is the real scandal. What a waste of a very scarce resource !

Bizarre about the validation date ...
Surely, if the stuff has been continuously & correctly stored, such cryogenic conditions should "preserve" the vaccine almost indefinitely ?

I remember something about a maximum amount of moves allowed as well, whether it's an issue here though I wouldn't know.

 

[Cat Fan]

The Palestinian Authority rejected them, and previous offers of vaccines from the Israeli government. I guess they want to demonstrate they are capable of doing it themselves.

The official story is that they don't want vaccines that are about to expire and I can sympathise with that. It's questionable how much they could even use in time before it's too late.

 

[Riklet]

Im wondering whether to start modifying my behaviour more if case numbers keep increasing exponentially. Its not terrible but not great around here... like case rate of 140. Bristol is much worse.

Up til now been taking the bus for short journeys, had dinner in a pub garden and drinks a few times at another pub garden etc. Im playing it pretty safe as it is... and I have got some vaccine protection. Wondering whether i'll need to modify my behaviour any more.. im a bit sick of hunkering down!

 

[elbows]

How simple an answer there is to that depends on individual circumstances, attitudes, comfort zone and what sort of activities you need to do to cope this summer.

We are into a zone where plenty of people might have good reason to modify their behaviour again in order to increase their chances of dodging the virus. Some will have reasons that is difficult or doesnt balance with their other needs and feelings. I've been raising the alarm for a little while now, but I'm not very interested in making other peoples judgements on their behalf, and there is still quite a broad range of possibilities ahead in terms of things like how bad the hospitalisation rate gets in this wave.

 

[elbows]

The first segment of indie sage today, lasting just under 23 minutes, includes some case grahs using log scales and prjections of how many cases there will be by July 19th using a couple f different growth rates.



Includes comments about what a terrible plan the current approach of letting million(s) more people get infected in this period is.

 

[2hats]

Remind me again which nation didn't make it to the Euro 2020 tournament...

In other data...

From the ONS 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 2 July 2021'.

Additionally, monitoring of Scottish waste water indicates the explosion in cases there is very real and no artefact of increases in daily testing (national average trends in wastewater Covid-19 and daily case rates (7 day moving average)):

From 'Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue No. 58)'.

 

[cupid_stunt]

For this wave, we have another record number of new cases reported today - 27,125 / 7-day average +74.2%

Hospital admission rates creeping up a bit faster now, 304 reported for 28th June / 7-day average +16.5%

Patients in hospital, on 30th June - 1,795, almost double that at the start of June.

ETA -

FFS, here in Worthing, we've gone from a 7-day average of 4 cases to over 90, in just one month. With hospital admissions reported for 27/6/21 resulting in a 7-day average increase of +80%.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Remind me again which nation didn't make it to the Euro 2020 tournament...

In other data...
View attachment 276427 View attachment 276426
From the ONS 'Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 2 July 2021'.

Additionally, monitoring of Scottish waste water indicates the explosion in cases there is very real and no artefact of increases in daily testing (national average trends in wastewater Covid-19 and daily case rates (7 day moving average)):
View attachment 276430
From 'Coronavirus (COVID-19): modelling the epidemic in Scotland (Issue No. 58)'.

Ah yes, the monitoring of Scottish waste water...

 

[Yossarian]

So the military were taking the piss?

 

[bimble]

I tried to book a Sunday lunch at a local fancy country pub for this Sunday just gone but they were full. Now the exact pub has just appeared in a bbc article saying they found out on Sunday that one of the staff tested positive so theyve had to close business etc. Very close to home, again, quite suddenly.

 

[elbows]

Remind me again which nation didn't make it to the Euro 2020 tournament...

Northern Irelands upwards trend will start showing up more in subsequent infection surveys I'm sure.

The Scottish wastewater data is very interesting. At one point the UK dashboard people suggested wastewater data would be added at some point, but I dont see any signs of that happening so far. Various surveillance entities that were created during this pandemic and/or have military and intelligence links are enjoying their lack of openness as per the usual norms.

In terms of the standard daily testing data rather than these infection surveys, the North Easts cases are going to break records for that region soon, if they havent already.

 

[elbows]

I tried to book a Sunday lunch at a local fancy country pub for this Sunday just gone but they were full. Now the exact pub has just appeared in a bbc article saying they found out on Sunday that one of the staff tested positive so theyve had to close business etc. Very close to home, again, quite suddenly.

When I scan various local news websites around the country, stories of outbreaks, isolation and/or closures related to pubs and restaurants and sports bars are popping up all over the place.

It probably goes without saying that I'm not exactly recommending people frequent such venues at the moment, but people will of course do as they want.

 

[bimble]

Yep I’m done, full hunkering mode until I go see parents.

 

[elbows]

I note some NERVTAG minutes came out for a couple of May meetings.

The 51st meeting of May 14th included this:

PH introduced the 51st NERVTAG meeting, giving a reminder about confidentiality of NERVTAG papers and discussions pending public release of minutes.

Since this was back in May, it also featured continued complaints about how the Delta variant travel stuff was handled:

PHE updated on the current situation with VOC B1.617.2. The committee again expressed their concerns about the importation of this variant and the spread in certain parts of the country. Of particular concern was the fact that introductions took place via travellers who were in home quarantine and it was noted that home quarantine is not effective if other household members, who have daily contact with the person in quarantine, are able to leave the house and go about their normal business.

Also contains various failures to get anywhere with understanding more about the potential for faecal transmission, a look at a Delta variant outbreak at a care home in north London, a look at reinfection and waning immunity, and a bunch of other analysis, some of which has likely been superseded with subsequent knowledge by now.

Also featured a request to check that the SAGE modelling group were using the right parameters in their modelling:

This was a request from SAGE to check that the parameters used for the modelling by SPI-M are correct; the paper will go to SAGE on 27 May.

Box

app.box.com

I'm not quoting anything from the other minutes published, for meeting 52, as this largely dealt with further attempts to estimate various aspects of Delta. Also includes them reviewing the PHE risk assessment of that variant, which they praised. Box

 

[elbows]

For this wave, we have another record number of new cases reported today - 27,125 / 7-day average +74.2%

Hospital admission rates creeping up a bit faster now, 304 reported for 28th June / 7-day average +16.5%

Patients in hospital, on 30th June - 1,795, almost double that at the start of June.

Yes the daily hospital admissions/diagnoses for England are now rising in the manner I started mentioning the other day, after a previous period where things overall stagnated for a bit with that picture. They are still dwarfed by rates seen in previous waves, and I still have very limited clues about how large they could become.

 

[marshall]

Yep I’m done, full hunkering mode until I go see parents.

Really? I rarely give Covid a second thought now tbh, even though I'm regularly in and out of bars, restaurants, shops. Always wear a mask and sanitise - and I probably always will now for the rest of my life (can't believe I used to go through a whole day in London without washing my hands - ride the tube, buy a sarnie, grab a coffee - might wash up in the evening, might not). Dunno, just stopped worrying about it, if it happens it happens, but y'know...

 

[bimble]

Really? I rarely give Covid a second thought now tbh, even though I'm regularly in and out of bars, restaurants, shops. Always wear a mask and sanitise - and I probably always will now for the rest of my life (can't believe I used to go through a whole day in London without washing my hands - ride the tube, buy a sarnie, grab a coffee - might wash up in the evening, might not). Dunno, just stopped worrying about it, if it happens it happens, but y'know...

Yeah, I see that a lot of people, maybe most, feel like you do. My view has changed with the numbers, I really really don’t want the long covid so I’ll just live quiet for a while til things look better again. No great hardship for me tbh.

 

[Brainaddict]

Really? I rarely give Covid a second thought now tbh, even though I'm regularly in and out of bars, restaurants, shops. Always wear a mask and sanitise - and I probably always will now for the rest of my life (can't believe I used to go through a whole day in London without washing my hands - ride the tube, buy a sarnie, grab a coffee - might wash up in the evening, might not). Dunno, just stopped worrying about it, if it happens it happens, but y'know...

I don't think it's a good time to be developing that way of looking at it tbh. And if it happens, it happens? If it happens you may become disabled. People don't understand what fatigue means in long covid so I'm increasingly using the word 'disabled' so that people understand it may affect what they are capable of doing for a long time, with the possibility you may not be able to do whatever your job is now for months or years, quite besides the wider quality of life issues, which can be very harsh: Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics

Symptoms adversely affected the day-to-day activities of 634,000 people (65.9% of those with self-reported long COVID), with 178,000 (18.5%) reporting that their ability to undertake their day-to-day activities had been "limited a lot".

Edit to add: I don't want to scare people just for the sake of it. But the fatigue people talk about with long covid is not just feeling a bit tired. It means your entire lifestyle could be significantly compromised. I actually didn't have it as bad as many people, but bad enough that I can talk with some confidence about how much you do not want it.

 

[elbows]

My view of what new normal goals I should set myself wont develop properly until we have seen whether we can unlock the population/herd immunity benefits of vaccination. Because individual protection and changed risk picture is one thing, lower levels of hospitalisations and death another, but the benefits can really be amplified if we end up with a picture where overall levels of transmission are kept down via population immunity. And we clearly arent at that point now, hence the ridiculous number of infections.

 

[bimble]

I mean, ‘if it happens it happens’ is, always, true, but I’d really very much prefer it not to and that’s why I’m going to stop going to indoor public stuff for a bit, cos that will make it massively less likely, to happen. Just in time for Freedom Day, brilliant.