Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[andysays]

Tbh, from what I've seen in London, this already applies.
I'll be wearing my mask indoors for the foreseeable and for the same reason that I have done since last year...that I don't want to pass it on.

Unusually for me, I've travelled on buses and trains in London quite a few times in the past week, and although the signs requiring people to be masked are still there, fewer people than I remember seem to be wearing them.

 

[platinumsage]

Just read this in Indian news:
'Children aged up to 15 years accounted for 4% of Covid cases in Gurugram during the height of the second wave between April 1 and May 31. Of the 4,676 children who were infected during this period, 94 (2%) had to be hospitalised, according to data sourced from the health department..'
1 in every 50 infected children needed hospital treatment? That is really bad.

Bear in mind that children admitted to hospital are far more likely to be tested than those that aren’t, so the actual rate will be much lower.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Just read this in Indian news:
'Children aged up to 15 years accounted for 4% of Covid cases in Gurugram during the height of the second wave between April 1 and May 31. Of the 4,676 children who were infected during this period, 94 (2%) had to be hospitalised, according to data sourced from the health department..'
1 in every 50 infected children needed hospital treatment? That is really bad.

Bear in mind that children admitted to hospital are far more likely to be tested than those that aren’t, so the actual rate will be much lower.

Indeed, plus there's not much testing going on in Indian, around 300k tests per million population/UK over 3m, so there would have been far more cases amongst children than the 4,676 reported, and thus the percentage hospitalised would be much lower for this reason too.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Makes me laugh all this jubilant ending of mask laws. As if there were ever any in the first place.

Govnt - 'You must wear a mask in shops and on public transport unless you are exempt. You don't have to prove you're exempt at all though.'

Retail Workers - 'Can you wear your mask please so I don't get seriously ill/die/kill vulnerable people I live with.'

Ratlickers - 'I don't have to wear a mask because I'm exempt. 20 B&H please.'

Retail Workers -

 

[bimble]

Makes me laugh all this jubilant ending of mask laws. As if there were ever any in the first place.

Govnt - 'You must wear a mask in shops and on public transport unless you are exempt. You don't have to prove you're exempt at all though.'

Retail Workers - 'Can you wear your mask please so I don't get seriously ill/die/kill vulnerable people I live with.'

Ratlickers - 'I don't have to wear a mask because I'm exempt. 20 B&H please.'

Retail Workers -

I think it was you that was talking about the knuckle dragging macho types being over represented in the mask-refusing camp and a very insightful friend of mine said something yesterday that felt spot on, said that what some of these people hated was having to pretend to care about other people, which they experienced as an affront to their masculinity.

 

[xenon]

Bear in mind that children admitted to hospital are far more likely to be tested than those that aren’t, so the actual rate will be much lower.

Also children can obviously have medical conditions that make them more vunrible too.

Not to downplay a horrific situation but there's things the raw numbers don't tell you.

 

[Cat Fan]

Yeah but the majority of people don’t because we don’t have adequate financial or any other kind of support in place.


Some individual councils have rearranged their resources to provide more comprehensive support for people to isolate. But one of the govt ministers admitted they don’t want to increase the support available or make it easier to claim it in case people were to fake their results and claim it fraudulently.

Just checked. 11% of people instructed to quarantine / isolate actually do so. Had to double check because its so utterly wrong.

Yeah, our government is ideologically opposed to providing a decent safety net, so that was always going to happen.

Someone needs to explain the term "false economy". If we'd had proper support in place for people to isolate then not only would we have saved lives, but the economic damage could have been much less.

E.g. in the first wave when you had some agency care workers acting as super spreaders. They're paid by the day, so no way they would ever take time off sick unless they were forced to.

 

[Aladdin]

Tbh, from what I've seen in London, this already applies.
I'll be wearing my mask indoors for the foreseeable and for the same reason that I have done since last year...that I don't want to pass it on.

My brother is working in the local hospital. He is so careful...wears an n95 mask if he calls to see us ..which has been only twice since March this year.
He told us he will not be seeing us again for a while because delta is on the increase here now.

It's pretty devastating tbh. We all thought that vaccination would be the way forward. My parents and I were on the very vulnerable list so we are fully vaccinated now. But my sister who was ok is now very high risk because of the stroke she had after AZ1. She is not getting a second vaccine now. Because AZ could cause another stroke and people who have had a bad reaction to AZ can apparently have a worse reaction to Pfizer. .

 

[Doctor Carrot]

I think it was you that was talking about the knuckle dragging macho types being over represented in the mask-refusing camp and a very insightful friend of mine said something yesterday that felt spot on, said that what some of these people hated was having to pretend to care about other people, which they experienced as an affront to their masculinity.

That does sound spot on to me. I thought people not wearing masks were just selfish pricks but I think this analysis is better.

I try not to generalise and sorry if anyone gets annoyed by this but think of your average scaffolder and those were the type of people that I've never seen wear a mask. I get a lot of scaffolders into my shop and not a single one of them has worn a mask in the 18 months I've been working through this and every single one of them has been like I described. Whenever I confronted them I was just dismissed or laughed at so I stopped bothering in the end. They were never going to listen so why bother?

In fact I remember a site manager moaning to me about how he had to cancel a job because the customer wanted workers to wear a mask whenever they were inside the house. 'My boys ain't gonna wear a mask, end of.' Said to me while I'm standing there wearing a mask.

Not that I'm just picking on scaffolders because I had more than enough students with the same attitude only more Americanised. Lots of calling me 'bro' while scratching their bollocks and ordering beer.

So I think your friend is spot on. I'm a bloke and I have never understood this type of masculinity. It's like a performance to me, completely conditioned by society. I loathe it but i guess it's the dominant way men perform their masculinity.

By the way if I sound massively bitter about all this it's because I am.

 

[prunus]

I think it was you that was talking about the knuckle dragging macho types being over represented in the mask-refusing camp and a very insightful friend of mine said something yesterday that felt spot on, said that what some of these people hated was having to pretend to care about other people, which they experienced as an affront to their masculinity.

Are there really that many people that fragile? I’d have thought it would be hard to operate in the world if your sense of self is so weak. Not saying your friend is wrong, it sounds right, but it means there are a lot of people walking around with dangerously severe self-image issues.

 

[StoneRoad]

Are there really that many people that fragile? I’d have thought it would be hard to operate in the world if your sense of self is so weak. Not saying your friend is wrong, it sounds right, but it means there are a lot of people walking around with dangerously severe self-image issues.

There are, tbh, a lot of "me, me, me" people that appear not to care a jot about other people, as was said above - I, too, blame thatcher's 'no such thing as society' grottiness and the culture of 'greed for self' she promoted for much of it.
Typical of this is the "why should I wear a mask" attitude.

 

[glitch hiker]

I'm one of those 16 monthers.
And I'm fucking livid at the attitude some people have..."I really need to go to a restaurant and dine indoors ...my mental health is suffering cos I cant do that". Well...fuck off...cunt.
This is the me me me crowd. The ones who have not lost family to covid. The ones whose lives have not been impacted by the horrors of covid.

I'll gladly do another 15 months indoors to make sure this virus doesn't get the chance to kill me or my family all of whom are very vulnerable.

People are stupid. And stupidity will be the driver of the fourth and fifth wave.

So wear the mask, maintain social distance and stick to the public health guidance.

You won't want to read Jenrick (for the record, Robert Jenrick breaks rules on behalf of rich pornographers) in the BBC.

Covid-19: Masks will become personal choice, says Robert Jenrick

Robert Jenrick says mask laws in England could go but Scotland says there will be an "ongoing need".

www.bbc.co.uk

Javid was also saying something similar. Clearly the Tories are leaning into the wind on this wind, while the rest of us get blown away. Freedom at all costs isn't freedom, it's political posturing to win over the covidiots. I think we all know that long covid isn't being taken seriously, by the media and the political class at large (it seems). That won't get any better, never mind when more people wind up with it.

The vaccines are the only tool the Tories have seriously invested in. They still don't' have a decent test system and won't anytime soon. However the vaccine rollout can only succeed insofar as the NHS infrastructure allows. and, despite the heroic efforts of its workers, it is still limited, thanks to the Tories. So whichever way you slice it, we are really in a tight spot. It is two weeks till the 19th and if you're going to say "personal choice" you are really saying "don't wear them, wave your pathetic little flag instead, that's the true blue vaccine, plebs". IN that time we aren't going to reach herd immunity. Fully vaccinated is just shy of 50% while 1 dose is about 67%. according to Google.

I was in a Zoom call and one of the people present, a young guy who'd been double vaccinated, had just recovered from catching the virus. He seemed to have recovered, I have no idea what his overall health is like but he said it laid him up for ten days. That's with a full vaccine.

Once that genie is let out the bottle on the 19th (that's a shit metaphor) it ain't going back without a fight.

 

[Supine]

I certainly won’t be relaxing my personal restrictions after July 19th. Although I am looking forward to a festival in august which should be fine as it’s all outside. Plus i have a face mask with a covid ecstacy tablet printed on it

 

[miss direct]

It would be good if a new lanyard came out to replace the sunflower ones. Or perhaps sunflower ones could be rebranded to indicate that a person wearing one is vulnerable and/or would like to avoid close contact.

 

[Spandex]

Freedom at all costs isn't freedom, it's political posturing to win over the covidiots.

It's the Tory concept of freedom: I'll do as I please and damn the consequences! Oh. Consequences. Must be the fault of foreigners and the poors...

 

[elbows]

NE takes off, in slightly older cohorts than recent, it would appear.

I was thinking more about this last night and the idea that the North East would be hit hard in this wave started to ring a bell. I eventually remembered that it had been mentioned in one of the modelling exercises of recent months, and I tracked it down to page 25 of the Warwick modelling report from June.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993358/s1288_Warwick_RoadMap_Step_4.pdf

The predicted scale of the third wave for all three measures is a function of historical cases, vaccine uptake, vaccine efficacy and the competitive advantage inferred for B.1.617.2 (Fig. 1). All regions except London are predicted to have large numbers of infections in the third wave (equivalent or more than in wave 2 for both the default and cautious efficacy assumptions, Fig. 18 top left), with the North East and Yorkshire suffering the highest burden. As expected we observe smaller levels of infection for the optimistic efficacy assumptions giving the smallest outbreak sizes while the cautious assumptions give the largest.

When considering deaths due to COVID-19 (top right), the protective effects of the vaccine are even more marked, with none of the regions expected to experience more deaths in the third wave compared to wave 2 for the optimistic and default efficacy assumptions, but many regions projected to experience a larger third wave (compared to the second) for the more cautious assumptions. This pattern is echoed in the total hospital admissions projections (lower graph), the mean number of hospital admissions in the third wave under the optimistic and default assumptions is consistently lower than during the second wave, but the cautious efficacy assumptions lead to a substantial increase for many regions. Again, the North East and Yorkshire suffers the highest projected burden of hospital admissions.

There are some graphs on that page too. I also note their prediction that London wont be hit so bad by this wave.

I believe that some others have since pointed this out on twitter.

 

[andysays]

I was thinking more about this last night and the idea that the North East would be hit hard in this wave started to ring a bell. I eventually remembered that it had been mentioned in one of the modelling exercises of recent months, and I tracked it down to page 25 of the Warwick modelling report from June.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993358/s1288_Warwick_RoadMap_Step_4.pdf

There are some graphs on that page too. I also note their prediction that London wont be hit so bad by this wave.

I believe that some others have since pointed this out on twitter.

Is there a simpl(ish) reason why they think London won't be so badly hit as other regions?

 

[elbows]

Is there a simpl(ish) reason why they think London won't be so badly hit as other regions?

I believe in large part its down to how many people they think already caught the virus in a previous wave, with high numbers in the previous waves contributing to a much reduced pool of susceptible individuals now. Quite how sophisticated a version of that analysis they did I dont know, eg they might have done it per age group and then factored in what age groups are least protected by vaccines at this stage.

Whether they got all this right obviously remains to be seen.

 

[andysays]

I believe in large part its down to how many people they think already caught the virus in a previous wave, with high numbers in the previous waves contributing to a much reduced pool of susceptible individuals now. Quite how sophisticated a version of that analysis they did I dont know, eg they might have done it per age group and then factored in what age groups are least protected by vaccines at this stage.

Whether they got all this right obviously remains to be seen.

Thanks for that, kind of makes sense.

I haven't been following the detail anywhere nearly as closely as you, but I seem to remember there were concerns at one stage that vaccination rates were lower in London that elsewhere, which would tend (all else being equal) to suggest London being more at risk from a new wave.

 

[elbows]

Thanks for that, kind of makes sense.

I haven't been following the detail anywhere nearly as closely as you, but I seem to remember there were concerns at one stage that vaccination rates were lower in London that elsewhere, which would tend (all else being equal) to suggest London being more at risk from a new wave.

Yes thats been highlighted as an issue. The extent to which the percentage of people vaccinated stats are affected by less acurate total population estimates for each age group in London is unknown, so that sort of thing may be a factor in their lower percentages.

And London certainly gets a wave, its just a question of how bad the burden from it is. Particular communities in London could be badly affected without this causing the overall figures for London to stick out as being especially bad.

There are so many potential factors that I dont like to sound too sure about this sort of thing at all.

 

[StoneRoad]

I am a bit concerned about the NorthEast getting hammered in a Third Wave ...

Yet, my little corner of the Northumbria has had a very good uptake of the vaccine [both doses] and mask (etc) compliance - from what I can see - is still fairly good.

 

[rubbershoes]

Unusually for me, I've travelled on buses and trains in London quite a few times in the past week, and although the signs requiring people to be masked are still there, fewer people than I remember seem to be wearing them.

And the vaccination take up is lower than in many other parts of the country

 

[andysays]

And the vaccination take up is lower than in many other parts of the country

As mentioned above, I remember reading that a while ago, wasn't sure if it was still the case.

 

[Leighsw2]

Tbh, from what I've seen in London, this already applies.
I'll be wearing my mask indoors for the foreseeable and for the same reason that I have done since last year...that I don't want to pass it on.

As will I. But surely, whether you or I wear a mask is seriously compromised if nobody else does?

 

[rubbershoes]

As mentioned above, I remember reading that a while ago, wasn't sure if it was still the case.

To 30 June

 

[kalidarkone]

As will I. But surely, whether you or I wear a mask is seriously compromised if nobody else does?

I can only control what I do though......but yes.

 

[elbows]

At this rate I am expecting Javid to soon announce that we've done a trade deal with the virus.

 

[Riklet]

The vaccination stats for London are shocking! Whats up with that? Lack of jabs and not enough slots plus reluctance in young people/different ethnic groups?

I just dont get how the vaccine uptake can be so bloody low... in the busiest place in the country.

 

[Dystopiary]

Health Secretary in today's Fail on Sunday has made his intentions clear. And on twitter:

 

[StoneRoad]

feckin 'ell, Javid's a callous barsteward.
but I think that he's had that opinion all along, and it fits in with bojos personal view.
I wish bj's brush with the virus had included long covid.

my opinion is directly opposed.
To me, the health arguments actually point to a further delay for the final unlockening.
or at least until the jabs applied to the younger adults have had time to develop a decent level of immunity
(and the older kids have been jabbed)