Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[cupid_stunt]

Sajid Javid’s statement to MPs about Covid will be at 5pm, Jacob Rees-Mogg, the leader of the Commons, has announced. That means Boris Johnson can hold a press conference at 5pm as usual and not worry about Javid announcing the news first.

This arrangement follows complaints from Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the Commons Speaker, that No 10 used to make Covid announcements via press conferences without MPs being notified formally. Under the ministerial code, major government announcements are meant to be made first in parliament.

From the Guardian live updates.

 

[Spandex]

Prompting @Spandex to show where your working erred.

Dude! Don't trust my maths. I got a U in my maths A-Level. Spent 2 years copying work from Mark who sat next to me and then spent the exam drawing a lovely picture of a trolley with no idea what forces were at work on it.

 

[teuchter]

It was you dufus, that compared risks of death crossing the road being greater than dying of covid19, siting 15 deaths of the latter yesterday. If that persists for the rest of the year.

Prompting Spandex to show where your working erred.

Have another coffee and think about it...

Ironically enough, Loose meat 's initial engagement on urban75 was to argue against road changes in South London that are aimed at improving road safety for pedestrians and cyclists.

 

[prunus]

Anecdotes for the anecdata mill: up until about a fortnight ago there had been very few cases in my kids’ school (1200 pupil south London secondary), maybe 3 or 4 (they’ve been very good at being covid secure, and possibly lucky) and no-one we knew or even that anyone we knew knew. Over the last coups of weeks cases are spreading like wildfire - both my kids know several people personally who have it, and many more isolating as a result. It really feels totally different to the prior 16 months, and out of control.

 

[xenon]

Ironically enough, Loose meat 's initial engagement on urban75 was to argue against road changes in South London that are aimed at improving road safety for pedestrians and cyclists.

Yep. I read some of those posts on that mega thread.

Anecdotes for the anecdata mill: up until about a fortnight ago there had been very few cases in my kids’ school (1200 pupil south London secondary), maybe 3 or 4 (they’ve been very good at being covid secure, and possibly lucky) and no-one we knew or even that anyone we knew knew. Over the last coups of weeks cases are spreading like wildfire - both my kids know several people personally who have it, and many more isolating as a result. It really feels totally different to the prior 16 months, and out of control.

And yeah. People around me are getting pinged more than last year. In the last 3 weeks, 3 instances, 2 of them work with children, the other was from a pub.

 

[BillRiver]

I'm fairly sure this weirdo isn't here for an honest debate guys

Of course not. Hence Loose meat not acknowledging or responding to my posts from this morning.

 

[existentialist]

We're talking about ending lockdown in two weeks and the loss of life now, not pandemic history.

Time to get on with the day. Hopefully people on here will be sharper later.

Well, TBF, the average IQ of Urban does make a sharp upward move whenever you sign off...

 

[Wilf]

Thread from Deepti Gurdasani

That's a perfect way of framing what lockowns are - a response to the failure of the government's pandemic management. An entirely necessary response, but still an indication that the government failed to pull just about every other lever, or did so too late, or broke the fucking lever...

 

[LDC]

I think the mask wearing or not after the 19th is going to be a really divisive and horrible issue. I really feel for people working on transport and in retail and other places where this will mainly play out.

 

[elbows]

That's a perfect way of framing what lockowns are - a response to the failure of the government's pandemic management. An entirely necessary response, but still an indication that the government failed to pull just about every other lever, or did so too late, or broke the fucking lever...

The reality isnt quite that neat and tidy though. I remember many occasions where I've felt the need to bore on here about how the other, nicer sounding measures arent always enough, even for countries that try really hard to keep infections down to none or very few, secure their borders etc. They still end up having periods where they need to do stuff that will be described as lockdown. Its just that theirs get far more impressive results, in less time, because of not dragging their heels.

For example we've seen around the world that just having a test & trace system isnt enough, you also have to be prepared to closely watch the data that comes from that test & trace system, and if it tells you that there has been a notable outbreak, you may very well have to do lockdown type stuff in an area to nip it in the bud.

 

[LDC]

Going to be interested to see what they say when the 'acceptable numbers of dead' questions come up. I mean, apart from desperately avoid answering them. Another 10,000 dead in the next 12 months is a figure kicking about in the media, so about 30 daily and 900 a month (no idea where that figure comes from and how valid it is).

 

[glitch hiker]

I listened to Dr Gurdasani's interview with Jeremy Vine. She really is the voice of all fucking reason right now, I hope she doesn't burn herself out smashing her head against the wall of broadcast indifference and 'balance'.

I listened right up until Vine said there was another side of the argument, immediately turning to some libertarian twat from the institute of fuckoffand die to dismiss science and reason.

I swear to all the imagined gods...

 

[elbows]

Going to be interested to see what they say when the 'acceptable numbers of dead' questions come up. I mean, apart from desperately avoid answering them. Another 10,000 dead in the next 12 months is a figure kicking about in the media, so about 30 daily and 900 a month (no idea where that figure comes from and how valid it is).

If history is any guide they will simply resist giving anything in terms of limits of daily levels of deaths or hospitalisations. The most we'll get is them pointing to previous high points in other waves and making noises about how much lower things are right now than that, or what levels in the past were clearly problematic for the NHS. And at most, variations on a '20,000 is a good result' theme when it comes to totals per year or wave etc.

 

[elbows]

Adding insult to injury there's now likely to be stuff you can only do if double-jabbed, which most young people are not.

I only paid vague attention to last nights leaks, but I got the impression that a lot of the stuff relating to double-jabbed people being allowed to do stuff and not needing to self-isolate, which the press have been quite obsessed with, is in the pile of future ambitions rather than stuff the government are ready to announce today. I suppose at this point I may as well just wait a few more hours to become sure either way.

 

[kalidarkone]

I think the mask wearing or not after the 19th is going to be a really divisive and horrible issue. I really feel for people working on transport and in retail and other places where this will mainly play out.

Yes it is. I've decided that I'm not going to get into it with anyone......and just do what I find acceptable which is to wear a mask indoors in public, lft 2x per week, wash my hands.

 

[Sue]

I think the mask wearing or not after the 19th is going to be a really divisive and horrible issue. I really feel for people working on transport and in retail and other places where this will mainly play out.

Folk from USDAW/Unite on R4 earlier sounding very unhappy about it. Who knows if that'll end up being anything more concrete though.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I think the mask wearing or not after the 19th is going to be a really divisive and horrible issue. I really feel for people working on transport and in retail and other places where this will mainly play out.

I know I go on about this a lot but people in touristy areas will be pretty fucked if they want to avoid large numbers of maskless people.

 

[kalidarkone]

I've been isolating since Tuesday and ZOE have invited me to do a PCR test which will be sent to me to do. Intrigued to see as I don't really trust the lft.

 

[elbows]

Actually people are concerned about what will be happening with hospitalisations in 2 or 4 or 8 weeks on from now - which will be determined by what is happening with case rates now. We are yet to find out what the link will look like.

Yes. There are already case to hospital links we can look at in this wave so far, but I've deliberately resisted treating the future picture as though it will resemble the recent picture. Mostly because the number of positive cases being detected in older people has started from a very low base and as usual it takes time for exponential growth to reveal via real data its true momentum and potential. If current rates of increase in older age groups are maintained, it wont be very long till their numbers are far more substantial, and not too long after that when the hospital data will reflect this growth of disease in older people. Thats when I'll start to be in a better position to judge quite how much of the weight of this wave the vaccines continue to successfully carry.

 

[LDC]

Yes it is. I've decided that I'm not going to get into it with anyone......and just do what I find acceptable which is to wear a mask indoors in public, lft 2x per week, wash my hands.

I mean the fact that it looks like it'll be entirely voluntary means it's pretty much going to be impossible to challenge anyone tbh, it's hard enough now even when it's a legal requirement. I think stuff might even shift the other way and mask wearers start getting more grief.

I think keeping the requirement for them on public transport and in shops is a pretty fair compromise.

 

[Pickman's model]

i wonder what will happen now that we're going to be giving delta to each other, whether it will be long till we see epsilon (or the boris bug as it will doubtless become known) which may have more means of evading the various vaccines than the current crop of coronavirus. once again the government are going to fuck this up.

 

[Wilf]

The reality isnt quite that neat and tidy though. I remember many occasions where I've felt the need to bore on here about how the other, nicer sounding measures arent always enough, even for countries that try really hard to keep infections down to none or very few, secure their borders etc. They still end up having periods where they need to do stuff that will be described as lockdown. Its just that theirs get far more impressive results, in less time, because of not dragging their heels.

For example we've seen around the world that just having a test & trace system isnt enough, you also have to be prepared to closely watch the data that comes from that test & trace system, and if it tells you that there has been a notable outbreak, you may very well have to do lockdown type stuff in an area to nip it in the bud.

... and of course 'lockdown' has rarely meant 'lockdown'.

 

[LDC]

The other things that sounds like it's going is the requirement to self isolate if you have contact with an infected person if you have had both vaccine doses. I'm not sure on what I think about that, but I do think it'll mean the end of nearly all self isolation in reality.

 

[elbows]

... and of course 'lockdown' has rarely meant 'lockdown'.

Yeah its a broad term. Our versions of lockdown have been enough to get R below 1 so that things shrink instead of grow. They havent been the sort of lockdowns you'd want if you were genuinely trying to contain an outbreak in a particular place, to really get on top of a particular outbreak or strain, to really nip anything in the bud as opposed to just more generally dampen things down.

 

[Riklet]

My instinct is they´re plugging zero restrictions now, cynically knowing they'll go back on some of them in 2 weeks time.

They'll keep the freedom loonies at bay but also can be seen to be "listening to concerned scientists" about the mask stuff when they set out final rules. But the negotiating position is stronger. I'd be surprised if they drop the requirement on public transport for example.

 

[Wilf]

Neo-liberal problem: gig economy workers have no incentive to stay off work in a pandemic.

Neo-liberal solution: get the fuck to work.

Cunts.

 

[elbows]

The other things that sounds like it's going is the requirement to self isolate if you have contact with an infected person if you have had both vaccine doses. I'm not sure on what I think about that, but I do think it'll mean the end of nearly all self isolation in reality.

Oh thats exactly the sort of thing I'd heard they would not announce today. But I'm reliant on media for that info.

 

[MickiQ]

Ryanair said face masks would remain mandatory on its flight "in order to protect the health of our passengers and crew".
You will be allowed to take it off for a £10 fee

 

[elbows]

My instinct is they´re plugging zero restrictions now, cynically knowing they'll go back on some of them in 2 weeks time.

They'll keep the freedom loonies at bay but also can be seen to be "listening to concerned scientists" about the mask stuff when they set out final rules. But the negotiating position is stronger. I'd be surprised if they drop the requirement on public transport for example.

There are possible scenarios with this wave where the system will buckle and they will probably have to reimpose stuff that was already removed in May. Giant u-turns, the death of the 'irreversible' rhetoric. This is worst case stuff.

But if they avoid that happening with this wave, if they avoid number of hospitalisations becoming too great, I think they will be keen to also give themselves every chance of avoiding announcing anything now that needs u-turning on quickly if the wave is bad, but not totally catastrophic.

So I expect the rhetoric to be about freedom and choice and all the things they are ditching. But if they dont mess with self-isolation etc rules right now then they have actually left some brakes in place, some forms of disruption in place that can affect the trajectory of cases when the shit really hits the fan. ie if infections double and double again in this wave, then a lot of normal life will be disrupted to ever greater extents in the coming weeks, via self-isolation, lack of staff, personal sense of risk etc. Not to the extent of formal lockdown, but somewhat similar in practice in some areas. Then a little later school holidays for England will come, which are also equivalent to applying the brakes. This will lead to much moaning from 'freedom lovers' and the shit newspapers, businesses etc, they will realise that the rhetoric about opening up, and the governments ultimate ambitions on this front, have not actually come to full fruition this July.

 

[Doctor Carrot]

Ryanair said face masks would remain mandatory on its flight "in order to protect the health of our passengers and crew".
You will be allowed to take it off for a £10 fee

Genuinely can't tell if the last sentence is sarcasm or not.