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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

Heres a quick example of what I said in previous post. Deaths per day from all causes for England and Wales. 1988 and 1989, the latter of which featured a bad flu epidemic that was in the news at the time.

I also include a graph I started for 2020 which I didnt get round to completing, showing the first wave Covid-19 death spike. But do keep in mind that the 2020 death spike would have been larger if we hadnt had lockdowns & massive behavioural changes.

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Thanks Elbows for sharing some informative charts. What really stands out in the data is that after so many people passed away in the initial wave, deaths fell down to record lows.

The irony of Covid being a sh!tshow in this country and so many vulnerable people dying is that we now have an older population that is on average much healthier and better placed to survive future flu outbreaks. This "dry tinder" effect is why you never see bad flu seasons back to back.

For the record I'm not saying that Covid only affects the old/vulnerable, but it has hit those groups the hardest, especially those suffering from pre existing health conditions (technical term is comorbidities)

In conclusion between the successful vaccine rollout and the built up immunity in the population, I'm highly optimistic we will genuinely be able to go back to normal this year. There's even a glimmer of hope for those of us with family in the EU that travel may restart for the double vaccinated.
 
I can understand why people are anti more lockdown, but masks, they're such a small and easy adjustment!
Just anecdotally from the last few weeks i think the very obvious increase round here in mask refusal is about people expressing / signalling to others how they feel about the whole thing, basically 'fuck that it's over' or something similar.
It's not that putting a mask on your face for 2 minutes when you go into a shop to buy milk is hard work it's that not doing so feels good, to them. I might be projecting but thats how it seems to me. It was very rare round here for the last year and a half now it seems like its mostly just older people who will reliably be wearing them.
 
I'm not sure how much Australia or NZ's short term 'zero covid' success can tell us about the practicalities of the UK achieving something similar in the long term. As far as I understand, they don't intend to continue these policies post vaccination.

Maybe I am overlooking something but a true zero Covid approach is so infeasible it's hardly worth discussing as an option is it? The only way I can see it working is if the whole world, or the majority of the world, does it.
 
Just anecdotally from the last few weeks i think the very obvious increase round here in mask refusal is about people expressing / signalling to others how they feel about the whole thing, basically 'fuck that it's over' or something similar.
It's not that putting a mask on your face for 2 minutes when you go into a shop to buy milk is hard work it's that not doing so feels good, to them. I might be projecting but thats how it seems to me. It was very rare round here for the last year and a half now it seems like its mostly just older people who will reliably be wearing them.

The sort of people who I've seen not wearing a mask throughout this whole thing are mainly your real knuckle dragging blokey bloke type of arsehole. There's a lot more of them around than I thought.

I've gone on about it quite a lot but I am pretty bitter about it all. I'm still surprised by it too at times. There's one bloke who comes in to where I work. He's 88 years old and recently had a really bad fall. So bad in fact he now breathes with the help of a tracheostomy yet he still wears a mask. I've told him several times there's no need but he wants to do his bit.
Makes a mockery of all those arrogant ratlickers or people who claim exemption whilst buying a pouch of tobacco.
 
Mask compliance has noticeably dropped here. Was shopping yesterday and I'd say only 30% were wearing them. Plus distancing in queues seems to have been forgotten too. Which is really a pity. I'd quite happily distance from most of humanity for the rest of my life in queues and on public transport.

Social distancing could've been a real opportunity to make public space more welcoming for everyone. Griff was saying earlier how social distancing works for some people but the rest of us want to get back to normal.

Leaving aside the fact he doesn't speak for 'the rest of us' whoever they are he does have a point though. Lots of people either like or don't mind close social contact in shops and the like. That's fine but personally I can get fairly anxious in a crowded supermarket and on public transport, I was extremely anxious on the tube over bankholiday when I ended up having to take it because the trains were fucked.

I've really enjoyed being able to shop with lots of space in supermarkets and not having to squash next to a stranger on a coach when travelling on my own. I think we could've let elements of that remain as we emerge out of all this. Doesn't look on the cards though. Instead we're just rushing headlong into opening up again because the economic model takes pole position above everything else.
 
Social distancing could've been a real opportunity to make public space more welcoming for everyone. Griff was saying earlier how social distancing works for some people but the rest of us want to get back to normal.

Leaving aside the fact he doesn't speak for 'the rest of us' whoever they are he does have a point though. Lots of people either like or don't mind close social contact in shops and the like. That's fine but personally I can get fairly anxious in a crowded supermarket and on public transport, I was extremely anxious on the tube over bankholiday when I ended up having to take it because the trains were fucked.

I've really enjoyed being able to shop with lots of space in supermarkets and not having to squash next to a stranger on a coach when travelling on my own. I think we could've let elements of that remain as we emerge out of all this. Doesn't look on the cards though. Instead we're just rushing headlong into opening up again because the economic model takes pole position above everything else.
I agree, it would be great if some lessons can be learned in terms of making supermarkets and public transport more accessible to people who struggle in crowded environments.
 
I'm not sure how much Australia or NZ's short term 'zero covid' success can tell us about the practicalities of the UK achieving something similar in the long term. As far as I understand, they don't intend to continue these policies post vaccination.

Maybe I am overlooking something but a true zero Covid approach is so infeasible it's hardly worth discussing as an option is it? The only way I can see it working is if the whole world, or the majority of the world, does it.
I mostly bring it up because I am always interested in adding elements to the mix that are not well covered by politicians and the media in this country.

Plus it forms a handy placeholder for one end of a spectrum that is bound to come up at the moment when discussing the whole 'learning to live with covid approach'. And we dont need to position ourselves at the very end of that spectrum in order to debate the merits and drawbacks of the other end of the spectrum, the UKs let it rip approach.

And the likes of Australia come up when trying to talk about what sort of lockdown etc burden the various approaches actually end up entailing. Certainly when I mention Australia at the moment I am keen to point out their current challenge in winter with Delta, and also some problems they are having with vaccine uptake. So I dont tout their approach as being perfect and without drawbacks. Nor would I describe it as something thats supposed to be ongoing in perpetuity. Countries that went for this approach mostly did so to cover the unvaccinated period, and vaccines are gradually supposed to take over the heavy lifting as time goes on. It may well not turn out that neatly.

We dont actually tend to have many serious and longlived discussions about an actual full zero covid approach that imagines total global suppression and elimination of this virus. That would be a tricky thing to pull off and would be very hard to imagine if the vast majority of countries were not fully onboard with the concept. But we can still discuss all things in between, very much including whether the UK should still be trying to suppress the disease at this stage, at least keeping the numbers down below a certain level.
 
I mostly bring it up because I am always interested in adding elements to the mix that are not well covered by politicians and the media in this country.

Plus it forms a handy placeholder for one end of a spectrum that is bound to come up at the moment when discussing the whole 'learning to live with covid approach'. And we dont need to position ourselves at the very end of that spectrum in order to debate the merits and drawbacks of the other end of the spectrum, the UKs let it rip approach.

And the likes of Australia come up when trying to talk about what sort of lockdown etc burden the various approaches actually end up entailing. Certainly when I mention Australia at the moment I am keen to point out their current challenge in winter with Delta, and also some problems they are having with vaccine uptake. So I dont tout their approach as being perfect and without drawbacks. Nor would I describe it as something thats supposed to be ongoing in perpetuity. Countries that went for this approach mostly did so to cover the unvaccinated period, and vaccines are gradually supposed to take over the heavy lifting as time goes on. It may well not turn out that neatly.

We dont actually tend to have many serious and longlived discussions about an actual full zero covid approach that imagines total global suppression and elimination of this virus. That would be a tricky thing to pull off and would be very hard to imagine if the vast majority of countries were not fully onboard with the concept. But we can still discuss all things in between, very much including whether the UK should still be trying to suppress the disease at this stage, at least keeping the numbers down below a certain level.
Sure.

I'm just saying that Aus/NZ demonstrate quite well that pre-vaccinations, a zero-covid approach can result in fewer restrictions than the UK's approach has led to - but they also demonstrate that achieving zero-covid involves certain restrictions (primarily international travel) that almost no-one would tolerate after they can see that vaccination can keep hospital pressure and illness/death to historically tolerated levels.
 
I'm not sure how much Australia or NZ's short term 'zero covid' success can tell us about the practicalities of the UK achieving something similar in the long term. As far as I understand, they don't intend to continue these policies post vaccination.

Maybe I am overlooking something but a true zero Covid approach is so infeasible it's hardly worth discussing as an option is it? The only way I can see it working is if the whole world, or the majority of the world, does it.

Friends in NZ have told me they aren't expecting to be receiving overseas visitors for another year. Not sure where that info came from. But if it's from the Govt at least they're honest with their population.
 
Of course these same people have just spent a lovely covid-free summer at cricket grounds and beaches and are looking forward to ski season so really don't a fuck whether or not we can go there! Apparently a lot of the world's billionaires have been buying up property and sadly, passports.
 
Thanks Elbows for sharing some informative charts. What really stands out in the data is that after so many people passed away in the initial wave, deaths fell down to record lows.

The irony of Covid being a sh!tshow in this country and so many vulnerable people dying is that we now have an older population that is on average much healthier and better placed to survive future flu outbreaks. This "dry tinder" effect is why you never see bad flu seasons back to back.

For the record I'm not saying that Covid only affects the old/vulnerable, but it has hit those groups the hardest, especially those suffering from pre existing health conditions (technical term is comorbidities)

In conclusion between the successful vaccine rollout and the built up immunity in the population, I'm highly optimistic we will genuinely be able to go back to normal this year. There's even a glimmer of hope for those of us with family in the EU that travel may restart for the double vaccinated.
Its a phenomenon that is visible on such graphs but its not that impressive and there are actually multiple causes.

Although some of the death reductions are caused by people that would have lived till then having died earlier because of the pandemic, there are other factors. Such as the effects of lockdown and reduced economic activity, equivalent to start of a recession that would be expected to reduce deaths due to factors such as air pollution, and people not going out and indulging in risky behaviour. And the effects of lockdowns and other measures reducing the number of other illnesses at various times.

And certainly the level that deaths fell to after the first wave was not an indicator of their future potential to rise, it didnt stop deaths reaching horrible levels again when the second wave came along.

Although a large number of vulnerable people lost their lives already in this pandemic, I dont think the overall state of the nations health is positively transformed as a result. Especially not with the healthcare backlog that has accumulated so far, and the currently unknown scale and longer term impact of things like long Covid, state of health and care services etc.

Anyway here is an updated graph which shows the period I hadnt filled in on the graph I posted the other day. It shows deaths from all causes per day for England only. Deaths have been especially low again recently, but I expect those figure to bounce back at some point. I dont know exactly what the baseline they've used is based on but it does provide a guide as to how much deaths are expected to change with the seasons in normal, non-pandemic times.

Screenshot 2021-06-30 at 14.15.jpg
Made using data from the weekly PHE surveillance reports (the latest spreadsheet of data from National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports ).
 
Nah, let's let loads of people die horribly, gasping for breath, and loads more become longterm disabled, when we could have prevented it. Much more fun.

How long do you think that we can tolerate the prevention measures? How long would you lock down for.

I have been isolating pretty much for 464 days. The number of shops I've been in in that time is still under 20. No pubs, no gym, no swimming pool.

We give real thanks that we have a house with a garden, and enough space not to both have to be in the same room all the time. The real heros of this are the folks who have got through whilst living in a flat with children and little outside space.
 
How long do you think that we can tolerate the prevention measures? How long would you lock down for.
I think its important not to always drag lockdown into these discussions of what a reasonable future looks like. I wouldnt go so far as to call it a red herring, but it is an emergency handbrake that authorities here will only resort to if the numbers become too extreme for healthcare systems to cope with.

Surely a sensible argument about what this next period should look like involves more of a balance of other things, such as various measures designed to reduce transmission but that do not totally spoil our lives.

Masks are a great example. There was 'cultural resistance' to mask wearing by our establishment, and there have been press conferences with the likes of Van Tam saying that there wont simply be a day where we all throw away our masks, which gave Johnson the chance to demonstrate just how much he hated that view of the future, and would instead try to abandon masks as quickly as possible.

And there are many ways to frame that stuff. If, instead of people moaning about masks and being desperate to ditch them as soon as possible, they were encouraged to consider the possibility that keeping mask rules makes it less likely that the draconian stuff like lockdowns will have to be reimposed in future, then perhaps people would view them in a more positive light.

Distancing and venue capacity rules are another issue. Clearly there are business reasons why plenty of entities dont think they can live with those rules for a long time to come, and pressure exists to ditch them. But simply running along this route as quickly as possible is hardly the most secure strategy if trying to avoid future restrictions that are even more damaging to business is the goal.

We could also consider stuff like masks in schools and exactly what the motive and logic was of ditching those rules when we did. Establishment cultural resistance to kids wearing masks in the classroom manifested itself via a number of claims including that the masks disrupt kids ability to learn. I would suggest that the recent spread of Delta variant through schools has had a far greater disruptive effect on kids eduction than masks.
 
I think its important not to always drag lockdown into these discussions of what a reasonable future looks like. I wouldnt go so far as to call it a red herring, but it is an emergency handbrake that authorities here will only resort to if the numbers become too extreme for healthcare systems to cope with.

Surely a sensible argument about what this next period should look like involves more of a balance of other things, such as various measures designed to reduce transmission but that do not totally spoil our lives.

Masks are a great example. There was 'cultural resistance' to mask wearing by our establishment, and there have been press conferences with the likes of Van Tam saying that there wont simply be a day where we all throw away our masks, which gave Johnson the chance to demonstrate just how much he hated that view of the future, and would instead try to abandon masks as quickly as possible.

And there are many ways to frame that stuff. If, instead of people moaning about masks and being desperate to ditch them as soon as possible, they were encouraged to consider the possibility that keeping mask rules makes it less likely that the draconian stuff like lockdowns will have to be reimposed in future, then perhaps people would view them in a more positive light.

Distancing and venue capacity rules are another issue. Clearly there are business reasons why plenty of entities dont think they can live with those rules for a long time to come, and pressure exists to ditch them. But simply running along this route as quickly as possible is hardly the most secure strategy if trying to avoid future restrictions that are even more damaging to business is the goal.

We could also consider stuff like masks in schools and exactly what the motive and logic was of ditching those rules when we did. Establishment cultural resistance to kids wearing masks in the classroom manifested itself via a number of claims including that the masks disrupt kids ability to learn. I would suggest that the recent spread of Delta variant through schools has had a far greater disruptive effect on kids eduction than masks.

When out, I wear a mask, of course I do. I also maintain distance, and sanitise my hands when out and about.

Because of very reduced lung function, it only takes about fifty yards until I am gasping for breath, the mask makes this quite unpleasant. It follows, that I want masks dropped ASAP, when it is safe to do so.

I don't really pay a lot of attention to government diktat, my own measures are much more stringent, but I do look forward to the day when things return to as normal as they will ever.
 
Regardless of individual circumstances, my point remains that I wont be very impressed if the rush to ditch some things actually ends up making a return to normal less likely to be sustainable.

I for one will return to normal behaviour much more slowly if there are no mask rules. I wont be alone.
 
How long do you think that we can tolerate the prevention measures?
But one of the most frustrating things at the moment is that one reasonable answer to this - not perfect but at least defensible - was to say 'until most people were double jabbed', and that would only have been a few months more - just a few more months after fifteen months of shit. Instead we're getting an answer to it that has a mostly political logic, and as a result future lockdowns have been made more likely, with increased future deaths and increased long covid rates a certainty.
 
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