Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
I am not, and never have advocated instant normality, I'm a retired nurse, I understand infection (as do you).
Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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I am not, and never have advocated instant normality, I'm a retired nurse, I understand infection (as do you).
elbows
Well-Known Member
Sure, I'm just bouncing my opinion off of some of your posts, I dont think you are advocating some kind of deluded ostrich approach.
Sasaferrato
Super Refuser!
I am very very glad that this is not my call. I cannot think of anything worse than having to take the decision as to what happens next, and when.
I don't wear masks just to walk outside, away from other people. There's really need no need, there's negligible risk of infection in that scenario.
Masks are needed when close to others outdoors, and when sharing space indoors. As you probably know.
l'Otters
.
Re. Masks,
In early April 2020 I joined a group of people who had started making cloth masks, with a lot of sharing info on designs, fit, materials, filtration, user friendliness, and distribution. My reaction to this was really positive, as this could make it possible for me to minimise the risk of the activities I needed to do. (eg in person shopping or negotiating crowded pavements.) It also meant I felt ok about going round to a friend’s mum’s garden and sitting outside for a chat. I welcomed them and viewed them as very beneficial. And (more fool me) looked forward to them catching on.
In short, I took to masks as a means of widening out my range of activities. Never saw them as a restriction or as an imposition.
In early April 2020 I joined a group of people who had started making cloth masks, with a lot of sharing info on designs, fit, materials, filtration, user friendliness, and distribution. My reaction to this was really positive, as this could make it possible for me to minimise the risk of the activities I needed to do. (eg in person shopping or negotiating crowded pavements.) It also meant I felt ok about going round to a friend’s mum’s garden and sitting outside for a chat. I welcomed them and viewed them as very beneficial. And (more fool me) looked forward to them catching on.
In short, I took to masks as a means of widening out my range of activities. Never saw them as a restriction or as an imposition.
26,000 new cases today. We are well on the way for 30k by weekend. There's NHS rallies happening on saturday as well. Ironically
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Weekend before last they had the conference league playoffs here in Bristol, Hartlepool vs Torquay. Drove past a pub near the ground and there were literally hundreds of people jammed into the beer garden and spilling onto the pavement, all squashed together. Reckon that might have seeded a few cases, what are the stats like in monkey hanger land now?
Football linked to 2,000 Scottish Covid cases
Most of the 1,991 cases were people who travelled to London for Scotland's game with England on 18 June.www.bbc.co.uk
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont generally do such things myself, I just look at what modellers come up with for various scenarios, occasionally look at other peoples attempts on twitter, etc. I'll post someone eleses next time I see one.
Although in theory its not hard to do a crude projection if I plot stuff using a logarithmic scale so that the graph resembles zig-zags rather than curves.
The government knew things would be rather bad by mid July though, its part of the reason why they are repeatedly underlinig their learning to live with covid rhetoric at the moment.
When judging the UK figures as a whole, we'll also need to wait and see what happens to Scotlands data now that their schools have broken up for summer.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And this should offer clues about cases:
Which reminds me to say that optimists on twitter (such as that Oliver person who is prone to describing themselves as a corona centrist) were happier during the period where there was a slight kink in the trajectory as shown in one of those graphs, but more recently they are alarmed again because the trajectory returned to a rather steep one with high R and short doubling time.
Which reminds me to say that optimists on twitter (such as that Oliver person who is prone to describing themselves as a corona centrist) were happier during the period where there was a slight kink in the trajectory as shown in one of those graphs, but more recently they are alarmed again because the trajectory returned to a rather steep one with high R and short doubling time.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
I should also say that I probably wouldnt attempt to do a future hospital projection just yet, since there is a suspicion that the admissions curve is going to bend upwards soon, and I dont want to be misled by it being on a less steep incline until then.
I think I will be paying much attention to mechanical ventilator beds figures this time around, since it may provide more clues about deaths than the broader hospital figures. And so far I've been keen to point out that the ratio of hospitalised to mechanical ventilation patients seems worse this time, so I want to keep an eye on it quite carefully.
I think I will be paying much attention to mechanical ventilator beds figures this time around, since it may provide more clues about deaths than the broader hospital figures. And so far I've been keen to point out that the ratio of hospitalised to mechanical ventilation patients seems worse this time, so I want to keep an eye on it quite carefully.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Plus these sorts of projections dont offer enough clues about when the virus might start to run low of victims in certain age groups. We can see how bad things will be if all these measures remain on their current trajectories, but that doesnt offer many clues about when, and at what level, the trajectories will start to bend lower, leading to a peak and then decline.
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Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
It's really upsetting that there are so many people who won't make a tiny bit of effort, then you've got someone who, as I posted here, from March 2020 did not leave their house for fear of catching Covid. Their situation, their freedom, is seriously impacted by the former group of people, who do go out but complain that people might object to them not wearing a mask to protect themselves and others.
Disabled and chronically ill people, as usual, at the bottom of the pile are the ones whose freedoms are being most curtailed, on top of them receiving even less support than they already did.
I am fucking terrified of catching this thing. My life's already restricted, proper restricted like. Wearing a mask on the rare occasions I do go out is the absolute least of my worries.
Disabled and chronically ill people, as usual, at the bottom of the pile are the ones whose freedoms are being most curtailed, on top of them receiving even less support than they already did.
I am fucking terrified of catching this thing. My life's already restricted, proper restricted like. Wearing a mask on the rare occasions I do go out is the absolute least of my worries.
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Number of deaths prevented from "not engaging in risky behaviour" is going to be rather low. Same goes for air pollution given that's more of a long term than a short term factor.
But I'm not by any means suggesting we can't see high numbers of deaths from a new variant of Covid or from any other new virus that comes along. Covid is different from flu because the mortality rate is much higher in older ages and people with comorbidities.
I also agree that long term the pandemic has been bad for life expectancy because of the negative economic effects, long Covid and delayed treatments.
On the plus side the current vaccines work very well at preventing serious illness from the current variants, so I do think it's worth giving this unlocking thing a shot. We can always lock down again if variant Zeta comes along.
For anyone who is not comfortable with unlocking, they can at least take their own personal precautions. (E.g. order groceries online, limit social contact, avoid crowded places).
For younger people who have never been at risk and have given up their freedom it's a chance for them to have a life again. Thinking particularly of those who are single, or those who have had weddings postponed multiple times.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Risky behaviour was shorthand for all manner of things that happen to people during periods of high economic activity.
A lot of deaths of different sorts were prevented in 2020. Pollution kills asthmatics and people with various other conditions in the short term, it triggers acute illness from conditions they already have. the effects of pollution are not simply a matter of longer term health. Indeed they are one of the factors that causes some spikes in death during certain summer weather conditions.
And more generally, I had too long an argument with someone else last night to want to have another one today, but I very much disagree with the bulk of your current pandemic stance that you have been expressing recently. And for now never mind future variants, we have a heavy battle on our hands right now with the Delta variant.
elbows
Well-Known Member
eg see charts like this one that I talked about ages ago at The nerdy amounts of pandemic detail thread
The stuff in green, less deaths etc than usual, is the reason I was entirely unsurprised by how low deaths fell at some stages of 2020. Note that there is an entire table relating to short-term impact.
The stuff in green, less deaths etc than usual, is the reason I was entirely unsurprised by how low deaths fell at some stages of 2020. Note that there is an entire table relating to short-term impact.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Oh and this is someone elses basic projection that is now out of date but may be of interest anyway.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And sorry if thats a bit strong. Its a difficult moment right now because there is the very awkward juxtaposition of a rapidly declining situation, combined with increased desires from some quarters to advocate a return to normality for many. These two things rub rather uneasily against eachother, and I am also extra tetchy whenever we are in a period of seeing cases escalate but before government has gotten round to responding to the increases with action. But this time around, unlike previous occasions, we dont even know if or when they will be forced to take action, their rhetoric has set them up to resist u-turns much more than on previous occasions. But there is still a limit to how far this government can stretch indifference and inaction somewhere, a limit government may yet have to face if hospitalisations get back on track with following case rises (hospital admissions had a period where they stagnated recently, which overexcited the optimists, but that stage now seems to have passed).
Cat Fan
Cats and stats
Nice table, but these things are notoriously difficult to estimate correctly. The whole thing hangs on 3000 fewer deaths due to air pollution, but road traffic went back pretty quickly to pre pandemic levels unfortunately.
And don't get me started on the economic bit of the table. 2000 less deaths from dementia and 2000 less from heart conditions, because there will be a recession? What? Because lockdowns cure dementia and make people do more exercise to improve their cardio health? It completely contradicts itself because it highlights low exercise as one of the risks.
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Cat Fan
Cats and stats
No worries, I respect your point of view but it's clear we are on opposite ends of optimism/pessimism spectrum.
I don't see anything to worry about in terms of hospitalisations on the govt. dashboard either but that may be the optimist in me. Case numbers are dire I admit.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Lots can happen in the gap between a positive case and a hospitalization as well. Numerous other healthcare service contacts, various calls to GPs and 111, a GP appointment, an OOH clinic trip, maybe ambulance attending, possibly a trip to A&E without ending up in admission, all sorts of stuff that impacts the capacity of the NHS.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I dont have time to properly get my teeth into this now. I'll just say its very complicated and there are lots of factors at play, some of which may not immediately spring to mind.
How the next recession could save lives
Death rates have dropped during past economic downturns, even as many health trends have worsened. Researchers are scrambling to decipher lessons before the next big recession.
www.nature.com
The old normal, and prosperity, kills people.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Plus there a lot of different aspects to the timing of death. Recessions can change the timing of death in ways that may seem counterintuitive if you are only thinking about the development of their health condition over the long term, as opposed to events that actually trigger their death within a particular period of time.
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