Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[MJ100]

Pardon?


You fucking clown.

That was from a different post where I was taking about the subtly different issue of people who have been mixing indoors throughout. In the post you snarkily replied to I was talking about the March easing. But you probably knew that, didn't you?

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

This website tracks areas of England that have shown unusually high rates of infection in official data:

COVID-19 in England - Areas with unusually high rates of infection

 

[existentialist]

That was from a different post where I was taking about the subtly different issue of people who have been mixing indoors throughout. In the post you snarkily replied to I was talking about the March easing. But you probably knew that, didn't you?

You fucking clown

 

[MJ100]

The extent to which I call them rude names varies and only distracts from the detail when shit heads like you come along and pick on my language because there isnt much else for you to get your teeth into, so feeble is your substance.

I've already explained several times that I fucking AGREE with most of what you have been saying, but clearly you deliberately choose to ignore that. I'm picking up on the fact that alarmist rhetoric does NOT help anyone and can, will, and has had a huge impact on people's mental health, something you evidently don't give a fuck about. Yes, an uncontrolled pandemic will be bad for that as well (which, again, is why I agree that restrictions are needed), but that doesn't mean it should give a free reign to people to terrify the public when just making them concerned and wary will achieve the same effect.

 

[MJ100]

You fucking clown

Grow up.

 

[glitch hiker]

Given that the rise is happening now before we remove all restrictions it seems that at the very least they will not only have to postpone Freedom Day but roll back. Surely at that point, he said naively, tory voters will wake the fuck up

 

[elbows]

I've already explained several times that I fucking AGREE with most of what you have been saying, but clearly you deliberately choose to ignore that. I'm picking up on the fact that alarmist rhetoric does NOT help anyone and can, will, and has had a huge impact on people's mental health, something you evidently don't give a fuck about. Yes, an uncontrolled pandemic will be bad for that as well (which, again, is why I agree that restrictions are needed), but that doesn't mean it should give a free reign to people to terrify the public when just making them concerned and wary will achieve the same effect.

Your view on what counts as terrifying the public is at odds with mine it seems.

I believe in informing the public of the range of possibilities that are ahead of us. The delta variant threatens the unlocking roadmap, and even Johnson acklowledged that weeks ago.

Speaking of terror, I also believe in alerting people to the fact that herd immunity is part of the calculation again.

 

[sheothebudworths]

That's true, but people have been mixing indoors for months, and schools have been open for months, and they are meant to be the major channels of spread. I suppose we'd have more detail on that if the government weren't allegedly suppressing the data regarding schools.

Since the full reopening of schools in March, masks have been mandatory - that changed on May 17th.

 

[elbows]

Given the misleading way the PHE data about vaccines and the new variant has tended to be covered by the media, I feel the need to quote a section of an opinion piece that appeared in the BMJ a few days ago:

On the same day, the Financial Times covered an important leaked report by Public Health England, which suggested vaccines were highly effective against B.1.617.2 following two doses. [17] This was widely presented as a “good news” story across the media, prior to the full report being published. When it was, the full report along with additional documents (including a delayed report on variants) released late on a Saturday, presented a stark contrast to the message in the media. [18-21] Apart from showing substantial reduction in efficacy against symptomatic infection after the first dose (33% efficacy for both Pfizer and AstraZeneca), and modest reductions after the second dose (89% efficacy for Pfizer, 60% for AstraZeneca), it showed that vaccinated individuals were 1.5 times more likely to carry B.1.617.2 compared with B.1.1.7 (over a period when B.1.1.7 was the dominant variant), confirming greater vaccine escape than B.1.1.7. [19] This is concerning given that only 30% of the UK population has been fully vaccinated. Furthermore, the reports described a rapid growth of B.1.617.2, which by 15 May comprised 50% of all sequenced positive tests and was likely the dominant variant in many parts of England. [21] In non-travellers, the secondary attack rate of B.1.617.2 was 50% higher than that of B.1.1.7, consistent with higher transmissibility. [21] As a result of these findings, the PHE risk assessment increased the alert level associated with vaccines from amber to red. [20] Far from being the “good news” story reported in the media, the data suggested a real risk to public health from B.1.617.2 spread. We are seeing rapid spread of a new more transmissible variant with the ability to partially escape vaccines, with predictions from government advisors suggesting that if transmissibility is at the higher end of the plausible range, we are heading towards another wave that could be as large as the last one. Although there is uncertainty around the impact of spread of B.1.617.2 on hospitalisations and deaths given current levels of vaccination and accelerated vaccine rollout, it is clear that hospitalisations are already increasing in some areas (e.g. Bolton). [22] Until and unless we have definitive evidence that B.1.617.2 is not as threatening as it currently seems, we must act with caution.

The UK's response to new variants: a story of obfuscation and chaos - The BMJ

The UK government’s response to the B.1.617.2 variant is, once again, characterised by complacency, dither, and delay The rapid rise of the B.1.617.2 variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK, since [...]More...

blogs.bmj.com

 

[existentialist]

Grow up.

I thought you had me on ignore, you fucking clown

 

[MJ100]

Your view on what counts as terrifying the public is at odds with mine it seems.

I believe in informing the public of the range of possibilities that are ahead of us. The delta variant threatens the unlocking roadmap, and even Johnson acklowledged that weeks ago.

Speaking of terror, I also believe in alerting people to the fact that herd immunity is part of the calculation again.

I didn't say terrifying them, I just think that the choice of words matters. That's all. Saying people should be 'worried' will scare those who are already scared, and will have no impact on those who are minded to ignore the restrictions anyway. I absolutely agree that the public need to be aware of the range of possibilities and like I said, I think we should probably delay the reopening at least for a bit. I just think that there should be a more careful consideration of how the scientists choose to word their statements.

 

[MJ100]

I thought you had me on ignore, you fucking clown

Far as I know I don't have anyone on ignore.

 

[elbows]

I'm nearly ready to stop posting too much on this thread for tonight.

I want to highlight a few more quotes from Sturgeons statement today.

And full vaccination is vital. Protection against the Delta variant after one dose is not negligible - but it is not substantial either. It is after two doses that the protection becomes much stronger.

So if cases continue to rise significantly, for too long a period of time, while significant numbers are not fully vaccinated, we could still see a significant burden of illness and death, and severe pressure on our NHS.

And it might also be worth just pausing to reflect at this stage on what ‘protecting the NHS’ – which has been a key aim throughout this pandemic - means in this current context.

After coping with the pandemic for more than a year, the NHS is now seeking to get non-COVID treatment back on track.

That means protecting the NHS can’t just be about preventing it from being completely overwhelmed - although that is of course vital. It must also be about protecting its ability to get services back to normal.

So even although the health service ‘coped’ earlier this year, when more than 2,000 people were in hospital – albeit I should say with enormous pressure on the workforce - that shouldn’t be our benchmark. Anything remotely like that again would set back our efforts to get the NHS operating normally again.

So this is a key and a difficult moment.

We do remain on the right track overall. I remain confident that - with cautious, albeit difficult decisions now - we will enjoy much greater normality over the summer and beyond.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's statement - 1 June 2021

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on Tuesday 1 June 2021.

www.gov.scot

I dont think I've seen too much decent reporting of that side of her statement, or the bit I posted earlier about how they've seen proportion of cases hospitalised reduce from 10% to 5% this year so far with caveats about the new variant. If anyone does see an article that draws particular attention to those details and her case for what should count as protecting the NHS now, please do let us know cheers.

 

[elbows]

Most of the newspapers have used the zero Covid deaths story on their front pages to indulge in undisguised propaganda.

 

[Ms Ordinary]

Given the misleading way the PHE data about vaccines and the new variant has tended to be covered by the media, I feel the need to quote a section of an opinion piece that appeared in the BMJ a few days ago:

The UK's response to new variants: a story of obfuscation and chaos - The BMJ

The UK government’s response to the B.1.617.2 variant is, once again, characterised by complacency, dither, and delay The rapid rise of the B.1.617.2 variant of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK, since [...]More...

blogs.bmj.com

Having not read the past couple of pages, and just skim read the above, should we be getting a message that vaccinated people should be extra cautious around non-vaccinated and partially-vaccinated people as they (the vaccinated ones) are more likely to be spreaders of the Indian/ delta variant?

Cos that's not something I'm picking up from anywhere else.

 

[platinumsage]

And why should I offer event he slightest respect to someone who comes out with this, as Dingwall did today:

11h ago 09:41



Again that was also his stance right at the start, before people saw the horror for themselves. I dont think he has adapted sensibly to pandemic reality at any stage, he will just keep playing the same tune until such a time as there is actually a chance of erring on the side of caution actually doing more harm than good.

Fear and anxiety are best managed via an effective response that instills confidence, not by making claims that will not stand the test of pandemic time.

And the collateral damage argument has been shown to be an absurd distortion already because taking a stance of avoiding lockdowns etc doesnt avoid that damage at all. Rather it makes it larger and more prolonged because other health services still get suspended due to the levels of infection that are reached by failing to impose the right restrictions at the right time. There will be many terrible medium and long term health consequences from this pandemic, but Dingwall and his ilk would not have helped avoid this.

It would not be easy to design a healthcare system that could have avoided these other consequences in this sort of pandemic. The most likely way to achieve it would have been to try a policy of actually keeping the virus out in the first place and stamping down very hard on the early outbreaks caused by early cases that did get through. Once things had gone out of control far beyond that, its much harder. A much larger health service with more staff and spare capacity all sorts of other things could have helped a bit. As could a much better attitude and capability in regards hospital infection control, and public confidence about going to hospital at a time of high infection rates. Even then, there would still be problems and health damage that would take a long time to recover from.

If you ask me the first lesson of this pandemic, apart from the lockdown-related stuff like acting early, travel restrictions etc, is that nations should be spending a much greater proportion of their wealth on healthcare. Its not a waste of money in normal times unless you have shit priorities, and the pandemic has amplified that point.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I have to admit, I've been reading his name as 'Dingbat' the last few days.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Most of the newspapers have used the zero Covid deaths story on their front pages to indulge in undisguised propaganda.

How is that a story and not just a reporting blip due to the bank holiday?

 

[elbows]

How is that a story and not just a reporting blip due to the bank holiday?

They have a fetish for daily numbers, however meaningless, and fake milestones. The anti-lockdown newspapers also used it as a blatant propaganda opportunity, coming as it did at a difficult moment and a day where headlines should have reflected Sturgeons pause. Others such as the BBC were happy to have it as their main website headline for a prolonged period of time.

I'd also expect propaganda to be espeically vulgar at the moment because many of the medias 'finest minds' are probably on holiday.

 

[elbows]

Having not read the past couple of pages, and just skim read the above, should we be getting a message that vaccinated people should be extra cautious around non-vaccinated and partially-vaccinated people as they (the vaccinated ones) are more likely to be spreaders of the Indian/ delta variant?

Cos that's not something I'm picking up from anywhere else.

Its a complex subject and I cant explore all of it right now, but I can say that isnt the reason why they brought up this detail:

it showed that vaccinated individuals were 1.5 times more likely to carry B.1.617.2 compared with B.1.1.7 (over a period when B.1.1.7 was the dominant variant), confirming greater vaccine escape than B.1.1.7.

That is being mentioned because its an indicator that the delta variant appears to have a better ability to escape at least some of the protection that vaccines offer than the alpha (kent) strain has. So they are just using it as part of the collection of evidence on that particular front.

I dont think there is anything wrong with your logic, except that it doesnt represent the full picture. Firstly what they describe is apparently from a while ago, before the delta variant became the dominant variant. And it includes no comparison of that sort of risk, eg it only tells us that vaccinated people who were still infected were more likely to have the delta variant than the older variants. It doesnt tell us how likely vaccinated people were to have any sort of covid infection compared to non-vaccinated people, and it doesnt tell us whether they were more or less likely to spread it to other people. Hope that makes sense!

This doesnt mean that what you've picked up on is entirely false or irrelevant. But perhaps it doesnt make that much sense to focus in on that particular risk, given how widespread the delta variant is becoming, and its of more value to focus on those who are at risk of catching this variant rather than details about who they might catch it from. I'm not that impressed with how that side of things has been reported on either - the government tried to be overly reassuring about the effectiveness of vaccines against that strain, no doubt with the excuse that if people become less confident about how much protection vaccination offers, it will lead to some defeatism and lower vaccine uptake, as well as threatening the unlocking timetable/slowing peoples return to normal levels of economic activity. They havent hidden the fact that people who have only had one dose of vaccine are not hugely protected against this variant, and this is made obvious by the increased emphasis and faster timetable for giving people second doses. But they have downplayed it, and the media has not drawn as much attention to this aspect as they should.

 

[elbows]

Given the number of experts expressing concern about the situation recently, I'm not surprised that others are being sent forth to reassure us.

Sir John Bell:

Covid-19: UK's data encouraging, says government adviser

Sir John Bell says balance is needed in the discussion over when to end lockdown restrictions.

www.bbc.co.uk

Sir John Bell, part of the government's vaccine taskforce, said there needed to be "balance" to the discussion.

"If we scamper down a rabbit hole every time we see a new variant we are going to spend a long time huddled away."

A typical technque that we've also heard from Spector of late. Ignores the fact that people dont go nuts about every variant, just ones that become dominant and appear to have transmission and vaccine escape advantages. Also ignores the timing context - incomplete vaccination programme and looming unlocking.

Sir John, regius professor of medicine at University of Oxford, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that the UK's "numbers don't look too intimidating" and he was "encouraged" by what he saw.

When I did a quick google search for Sir John Bell I was not encouraged by what I saw from earlier this year:

Tracking down John Bell: how the case of the Oxford professor exposes a transparency crisis in government

As testing and the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine are hailed as UK pandemic successes, why won’t Oxford University or the government disclose the “long list” of financial interests of a high profile researcher at the centre of both? Paul D Thacker investigates Since the covid-19 outbreak began...

www.bmj.com

Since the covid-19 outbreak began early last year, John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, has held high profile roles in the UK government’s epidemic response while also working with AstraZeneca on the vaccine.

But both Oxford and the government have refused to disclose Bell’s financial interests after The BMJ filed freedom of information (FOI) requests. More alarmingly, it appears that the government is referring media enquiries about Bell through the Cabinet Office and is scrutinising a reporter for The BMJ as it has other reporters it finds troublesome.1The BMJ has been unable to gain either direct contact with Bell or contact through his employer, Oxford University, despite multiple attempts.

The BMJ has previously raised concerns about Bell’s financial ties to industry, during a campaign it ran from 2009 for access to the clinical trial data on Tamiflu (oseltamivir), with an open letter to Bell published in 2012.5 At that time Bell was on the commercial board of Roche and received $420 000 from the company in 2011.67

Since The BMJ approached Oxford University and the government last November about Bell, he has made appearances in many media outlets—such as the BBC, Channel 4 News, CNBC, and the Financial Times—to comment on public policy. Yet questions remain about the exact sum and nature of his self-confessed “long list” of financial investments, and how that might affect the government’s coronavirus policy.

 

[elbows]

And now a small random selection of outbreak news:

Covid in Scotland: Douglas Ross isolating after David Duguid tests positive

Douglas Ross and David Duguid carried out a number of engagements together in Peterhead on Monday.

www.bbc.co.uk

Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross is self-isolating after coming into contact with someone who has now tested positive for Covid-19.
The Highlands and Islands MSP was told of the result on Wednesday morning after arriving at Holyrood.
He is now self-isolating in a hotel in Edinburgh, and is due to take a test.
Four other Tory MSPs are also taking tests as a precaution, while two MSPs from another party have been advised they could do likewise.

Covid: Indian variant spike in Leek sees 1,000 self-isolating

Thirty-one people with links to two schools and a college have tested positive for coronavirus.

www.bbc.co.uk

Almost 1,000 pupils and staff are self-isolating after 28 people with links to two schools and a college tested positive for coronavirus.
Staffordshire health chiefs said cases found were thought to be the so-called Indian variant, now named Delta variant by the World Health Organization.
The 28 people have links to Westwood College, St Edward's Middle School and Leek High School, the council said.
Households with links to the schools are urged to get rapid PCR Covid tests.

The county council said staff and customers who visited the following venues on the specified dates are also being urged to get tested, as the positive cases may have visited the venues while infectious:

• The Three Horseshoes Country Inn & Spa, Buxton Road, Blackshaw Moor ST13 8TW between 24 and 26 May
• The Black Lion, 12 Hollow Lane Cheddleton, ST13 7HP between 22 and 23 May

 

[SpookyFrank]

Given the number of experts expressing concern about the situation recently, I'm not surprised that others are being sent forth to reassure us.

Sir John Bell:

Covid-19: UK's data encouraging, says government adviser

Sir John Bell says balance is needed in the discussion over when to end lockdown restrictions.

www.bbc.co.uk

A typical technque that we've also heard from Spector of late. Ignores the fact that people dont go nuts about every variant, just ones that become dominant and appear to have transmission and vaccine escape advantages. Also ignores the timing context - incomplete vaccination programme and looming unlocking.



When I did a quick google search for Sir John Bell I was not encouraged by what I saw from earlier this year:

Tracking down John Bell: how the case of the Oxford professor exposes a transparency crisis in government

As testing and the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine are hailed as UK pandemic successes, why won’t Oxford University or the government disclose the “long list” of financial interests of a high profile researcher at the centre of both? Paul D Thacker investigates Since the covid-19 outbreak began...

www.bmj.com

Of course the more prevalent this partially-escaped variant becomes, the greater the pool of hosts from which a new, completely escaped variant can emerge.

Which, if I can figure it out, anyone posing as any kind of 'expert' should already know.

 

[elbows]

Of course the more prevalent this partially-escaped variant becomes, the greater the pool of hosts from which a new, completely escaped variant can emerge.

Which, if I can figure it out, anyone posing as any kind of 'expert' should already know.

Well more broadly I expect to see this propaganda battle rage on right up until the decision in a few weeks. I suppose I will have to pick and choose which days to pay attention to this, as if I pay full attention every day I will wear myself out.

Unknowns include what data may emerge during this period, and which way authorities will try to spin it. Its been many months since the government first set the stage for the reframing of case numbers to not in themselves being met with the same approach as before, along with telling us that R being above 1 was no longer going to be seen by them as the alarm it once was.

There is a logic to some of that reframing, along the lines of vaccines etc modifying the relationship between cases and hospitalisations/deaths. But they go too far by going on about the link being broken, as opposed to the reality that the link ratios have been changed, not utterly destroyed.

 

[elbows]

I expect one of the dissapointing features of UK knowledge and reporting during this pandemic is the very limited info we've had about many details of transmission in regards specific cases.

I think this Australian article is interesting because it goes into far more detail than we usually get about that stuff. Some of it may be inaccurate or over the top, I cannot judge, but I found it quite fascinating so am sticking it in this UK thread. The use of the word bizarre in the headline is stupid.

Scary new Victorian transmission revealed

Victoria’s chief health officer Brett Sutton says people are becoming infected with Covid-19 in ways we have not seen before.

www.news.com.au

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday where it was announced the state’s seven-day lockdown would continue for another week, Professor Sutton said a person was infected at an indoor enclosed space “two hours after an infectious case had left”.

“(It) was therefore a substantial period of time but they had left two hours before the next exposed individual came in who has become a case,” he said.

“That’s in the kind of measles category of infectiousness. Probably relates to an unventilated setting where someone spent a great deal of time but to come in two hours later and be infected. It may be on surfaces but it could absolutely be through airborne transmission as well because of that indoor setting.”

He said the ease with which the virus is spreading may be a feature of the Indian variant.

“We are used with previous variants, we are more used to transmission occurring in the home, in the workplace, where people know each other already, not all of those big social settings,” he said.

“We have seen transmission in these places with very fleeting contact. We have transmission in places like the Telstra store in South Melbourne, JMD Grocers, the display home we talked about a few days ago, I’d add Craigieburn Central shopping centre.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Re 'zero' cases -

The long Easter weekend looked like this -

Thu 1/4 - 51
Fri 2/4 - 52
Sat 3/4 - 10
Sun 4/4 - 10
Mon 5/4 - 26
Tue 6/4 - 20
Wed 7/4 - 45
Thu 8/4 - 53

and the early May bank holiday weekend like this -

Thu 29/4 - 22
Fri 30/4 - 15
Sat 1/5 - 7
Sun 2/5 - 14
Mon 3/5 - 1
Tue 4/5 - 4
Wed 5/5 - 27
Thu 6/5 - 13


I mean this is OBVIOUS stuff being allowed to run completely manipulated to fit the June 21st agenda isn't it.

It's actually exactly the sort of thing that Whitty/Valance/Van Tam etc actually went to quite some pains to point out during press conferences (figures being skewed over weekends and holidays) and this is all still without the delay you would expect to have to happen, after cases started rising, before you could even be sure that hospitalisations weren't increasing dramatically, let alone deaths, too.

 

[editor]

Good work Wales!

 

[Smangus]

Impressed with Mongolia, I have visions of Vaccination centre yurts being set up all over the steppes.

 

[2hats]

Even more impressed with Mongolia, though likely very urban focussed. Note that UK regional breakdown is skewed by ignoring under 18s (because of course, they magically don't transmit). True values are roughly Scotland: 38%, NI: 35%, Wales: 36%, England: 39% (which then better tallies with the second chart).