Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[maomao]

I'm obviously not a scientist but isn't having a massive pool of virus circulating through a half vaccinated population a pretty efficient way to come up with a proper escape variant?

 

[elbows]

I'm obviously not a scientist but isn't having a massive pool of virus circulating through a half vaccinated population a pretty efficient way to come up with a proper escape variant?

This is what the establishment variant of experts had to say about the broader subject when concerns came up about the UK extending the second dose time to 12 weeks. As such it also pre-dates the delta variant concerns, and was written at a time when we were still at a high point in a deadly wave:

In the current UK circumstances the unquantifiable but likely small probability of the delayed second dose generating a vaccine escape mutant must be weighed against the measurable benefits of doubling the speed with which the most vulnerable can be given vaccine-induced protection.

It is a realistic possibility that over time immune escape variants will emerge, most likely driven by increasing population immunity following natural infection.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/954990/s1015-sars-cov-2-immunity-escape-variants.pdf

So they thought the risk was possible but couldnt measure how likely it was, decided it was a small risk, and suggested that the escape mutant risk over a longer period would probably come via natural infections more than vaccinations. Immunosuppressed patients worry them because they have some actual evidence of what can happen with such patients and certain treatments. But of course it also happens to be convenient for them to think that way and downplay certain possibilities that get in the way of the plans and the proactive stuff like vaccination.

 

[elbows]

Also note various things from the 'monitoring immune-escape' section of that document, since such things often offer better clues about their concerns than sections that feature specific attempts to downplay specific risks. Again this pre-datesimported delta variant concerns.

• Vaccine breakthrough should be closely monitored.
• Vaccinated cases who develop COVID-19 should undergo virus sequencing and genotype to phenotype characterization as quickly as possible to understand whether viral variation may explain the breakthrough.
• Sequencing pillar 1 and pillar 2 samples will be used to understand whether new clusters with hallmark antigenic changes accumulate in the next few months of vaccine roll out.

• More intense study of vaccine recipients in immunosuppressed groups are planned that will reveal whether mutants may arise in this cohort.
  
  It might prove useful to create a cohort of immunosuppressed, vaccinated individuals for active surveillance and sequencing to serve as a sentinel population in whom we watch for vaccine escape with particular care.

• Vaccine efficacy after one dose should be carefully monitored to inform future vaccine policy.

 

[elbows]

PHE variant news summary:

Covid: Indian variant 'now dominant' in the UK

Confirmed cases of the Indian variant have risen to 12,431 in the UK, according to new data from Public Health England

www.bbc.co.uk

The variant of coronavirus first identified in India is now the dominant strain in the UK, Public Health England (PHE) has said.
The number of cases confirmed by laboratory analysis rose by 79% over the last week to 12,431.
Scientists believe the variant, now known as Delta, has overtaken the Kent, or Alpha, variant.
They say that there may also be a higher risk of hospitalisation linked to the Delta variant.
But that is based on early evidence, and PHE say more data is needed to have more confidence in the finding.

Sounds like the much hidden delta variant schools data may actually have been published, finally.

PHE has also published a breakdown of outbreaks and clusters of variants in schools settings with cases rising in line with higher levels of the Delta variant in the community.

I havent had time to locate and read the PHE document(s) myself yet.

 

[2hats]

PHE technical briefing 14 is out. Indicates that there is clearly a greater risk of hospitalisation from B.1.617.2.

there was a significantly increased risk of hospitalisation within 14 days of specimen date (HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.56-4.36, p<0.001), and emergency care attendance or hospitalisation within 14 days (HR 1.67, 1.25-2.23, p<0.001), for Delta cases compared to Alpha cases after adjustment for confounders (age, sex, ethnicity, area of residence, index of multiple deprivation, week of diagnosis and vaccination status).

Educational settings clearly playing a major role in the spread of it (surprise!).

 

[platinumsage]

PHE technical briefing 14 is out. Indicates that there is clearly a greater risk of hospitalisation from B.1.617.2.

Only given that they didn’t control for vaccinations and pre-existing conditions.

 

[Teaboy]

PHE technical briefing 14 is out. Indicates that there is clearly a greater risk of hospitalisation from B.1.617.2.

Educational settings clearly playing a major role in the spread of it (surprise!).

No wai

 

[elbows]

PHE technical briefing 14 is out. Indicates that there is clearly a greater risk of hospitalisation from B.1.617.2.

Educational settings clearly playing a major role in the spread of it (surprise!).

Delta variant already generating impressive reinfection numbers given the relatively short period of time its been with us compared to Alpha.

 

[xenon]

Got a text to say my second appointment had been cancelled. Rebooked it within the hour for the next day. Bit odd.

 

[weepiper]

No we still have masks for secondary pupils here, kids don't have to social distance but adults are meant to keep 2m still. My kids report a lot of mask fannying about (below noses, taking off to sneeze etc) though.

 

[elbows]

I see that report does feature a modest reduction in their secondary attack rate estimates.

Secondary attack rates for contacts of cases with Delta and no travel history are higher than those for contacts of non-travel cases with Alpha: 12.4% compared to 8.2%. The estimate of secondary attack rate for contacts of cases with Delta represents a decrease compared to that published in Technical Briefing 13 for the period to 29 March to 4 May 2021, which was 13.5% (95% CI 12.5% to 14.6%).

 

[maomao]

If they're up to Kappa, it'll be the London Lambda next.

 

[elbows]

Only given that they didn’t control for vaccinations and pre-existing conditions.

Vaccination status was part of the analysis:

Based on a record linkage of sequence-confirmed Delta and Alpha cases in England tested between 29 March 2021 and 20 May 2021, an analysis of 38,805 sequenced cases was performed to assess the risk of hospitalisation and emergency care attendance. Using stratified Cox proportional hazard regression, there was a significantly increased risk of hospitalisation within 14 days of specimen date (HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.56-4.36, p<0.001), and emergency care attendance or hospitalisation within 14 days (HR 1.67, 1.25-2.23, p<0.001), for Delta cases compared to Alpha cases after adjustment for confounders (age, sex, ethnicity, area of residence, index of multiple deprivation, week of diagnosis and vaccination status).

 

[glitch hiker]

Figures for today delayed?

 

[SpookyFrank]

I'm obviously not a scientist but isn't having a massive pool of virus circulating through a half vaccinated population a pretty efficient way to come up with a proper escape variant?

You're a better scientist than half the actual scientists on government payroll by the looks of things.

 

[elbows]

Figures for today delayed?

Yes, I commented on ominous dashboard delays earlier, although occasionally such delays have been due to technical reasons that did not conveniently overlap with bad news.

 

[elbows]

Some more of the stuff from todays PHE variant technical briefing document:




No wonder the government wanted to sit on the delta variant schools data.

 

[2hats]

Only given that they didn’t control for vaccinations and pre-existing conditions.

Try reading the report first. Or even just the quote you are yourself quoting.

 

[sheothebudworths]

No we still have masks for secondary pupils here, kids don't have to social distance but adults are meant to keep 2m still. My kids report a lot of mask fannying about (below noses, taking off to sneeze etc) though.

Well if you're already having outbreaks, I guess thank fuck they do still have the policy in place, at least.

I wouldn't know what happens in the classrooms, tbf - and there are always some kids who will just not QUITE manage it but those aside, I think it just took some time for them to get used to remembering to do it, iykwim - so what I saw in our canteen was that the majority of them had pretty much got there, until they were then removed again.
Just seemed like a pointless risk to take with half a term left - and with the likelihood (maybe ) that they will have to return to that very shortly now anyway.

All of that without the more obvious health risks, and indeed the further loss of time in school - but even just on a practical level, kids are likely to find the constant changes, the predictable U-turns, even more difficult to adjust/readjust to than us adults might, so if it ain't broke... sorta thing.

(Our head was one of those 'Oh it's just like flu' types back in March though, so I wasn't surprised they went with the new guidance, despite having a choice in it )

 

[cupid_stunt]

The dashboard has finally been updated, 5,274 new cases/7-day average up +38.9%.

However, 7-day average hospital admission up by only 3%, based on 30/5/21 latest figures. Deaths 18, 7-day average down - 5.5%

 

[elbows]

 

[glitch hiker]

This is going on the wrong direction. Clearly.

I fear we'll have to rollback restrictions, not just postpone 'Freedom Day'.

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

 

[elbows]

Just in case it wasnt clear from earlier technical quotes:

An analysis of 38,805 sequenced cases in England revealed that the Delta variant was associated with a 2.61 fold higher risk of hospitalisation within 14 days of specimen date compared with the Alpha variant. There was a 1.67 times higher risk of A&E care within 14 days. These figures take into account factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, area of residence and vaccination status .

Data from Scotland supported the findings, also pointing to a more than twofold higher risk of hospitalisation for those infected with the Delta variant compared with the Alpha variant.

“Confirmatory analyses are required to confirm the magnitude of the change in risk and to explore the link to vaccination in more detail,” the document states.

India Covid variant may increase risk of hospital admission, early data suggests

Public Health England analysis finds Delta variant is more likely to lead to hospitalisation than Kent variant

www.theguardian.com

edit - I added a bit more to the quote.

 

[weepiper]

Another Scottish school outbreak Covid mobile testing unit sent to Falkirk High School after outbreak

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

Well, this all has a depressing ring of familiarity to it.

 

[StoneRoad]

I must admit that I am getting more and more worried about the possibility of a third wave now, rather than later in the year (winter). Just when I was hoping for the chance to do more normal things ...

I do not trust our political bosses to follow the science, at all; certainly not as a first choice and eventually only when forced to do so by developments.
In other words, they'll miss the boat, again. And people will suffer and die, again, despite the vaccine rollout.

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

I must admit that I am getting more and more worried about the possibility of a third wave now, rather than later in the year (winter). Just when I was hoping for the chance to do more normal things ...

I do not trust our political bosses to follow the science, at all; certainly not as a first choice and eventually only when forced to do so by developments.
In other words, they'll miss the boat, again. And people will suffer and die, again, despite the vaccine rollout.

Still, at least they’ve timed it this time to fuck up the summer

 

[zora]

Urgh, the whole thing really feels on such a knife edge!

Anecdotally, there seem to be not twice as many cases as a few weeks ago, but many more times over, just going by the amount of people here who are reporting cases in their extended families or their schools and workplaces.

The one positive thing I can report, again anecdotally, is that they (the NHS in this case) are not dragging their heels with bringing the second vaccinations forward! Just had a call yesterday and am going in this morning for second vaccination (originally booked for 1 July). I have leap-frogged the b/f who will be having vaccination 2 next week, brought forward by a week or so.

I am very pleased about getting mine, because I finally have a lengthy dentist appointment booked in for end of June, and I was worried how high cases will be by then, at least now I will be fully vaccinated for that date.

But yeah, why take this gamble at this point?