Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[elbows]

Scotland offers a sneak peek of the government framing that was set out months ago in terms of not reacting to rising cases - its now being applied. The stuff that is misleadingly described as breaking the link between cases and hospitalisations, when its actually about changing the ratios rather than totally breaking that link. UK government vary in quite how misleading they choose to be about that, and its no surprise that Scotland have chosen to describe the link in somewhat more honest terms.

Covid in Scotland: Number of new cases highest since February

A total of 992 people tested positive for the virus on Thursday, the highest daily figure since 17 February.

www.bbc.co.uk

Scotland has recorded its highest number of new Covid cases since February, a day before restrictions ease across much of the country.

A total of 992 people tested positive for the virus on Thursday, the highest daily figure since 17 February.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the number of new cases had more than tripled in the past month.

And she said it showed that the country was at a "critical juncture" in the pandemic.

However, she stressed that the success of the vaccine programme meant that the country could continue to look forward to living with fewer restrictions over the summer.

And she said the link between the number of cases and the number of people being hospitalised and dying because of the virus was not as strong as it has been in the past - but had not disappeared completely.

Ms Sturgeon said: "We are at a very critical juncture right now in what we still very much hope, and believe, is a transition to a less restrictive way of dealing with Covid, but the position we are in now on that transition is a fragile one."

 

[elbows]

I've grabbed these R estimates off the bbc live updates page. These sorts of estimates tend to lag behind reality a bit,

 

[elbows]

I've restarted my graphs of daily hospital admissions/diagnoses per English region.

This one is smoothed out via 7 day averages. Data is from Statistics » COVID-19 Hospital Activity

 

[weepiper]

One of the three feeder primaries for our secondary school has closed/gone to remote learning today because of Covid cases.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Robert Jenrick said he did not know how many cases there were of the new Nepal variant of the coronavirus.

Speaking to the Today programme, the communities secretary said it appeared to be a “further mutation of the Indian variant”.

When asked how the Nepal variant could be used as a reason to remove Portugal from the green list if he did not know how many cases there were, Jenrick said:

We have seen that there are cases of it, they are picking this up, and we took the decision that it was better to be cautious whilst we learn about this new mutation of the variant.
Jenrick said he was not aware of any cases of the Nepal variant in the UK.

He said Portuguese scientists had detected the variant, but said:

What we don’t yet know is how prevalent it is in Portugal – but more importantly than that, whether this really is a significant problem.
You could, of course, wait whilst we do that research and then, God forbid, we learn that it is very virulent, that it does compromise our vaccines, or we can take a safety-first approach.
He was also on BBC Breakfast defending the decision to add Portugal to the amber list, saying “it’s right to be careful”.

Robert Jenrick said there was still “nothing at the moment that suggests that we won’t be able to move forward” with the next stage of lifting restrictions on 21 June.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

We’ve got a further 10 days until we are going to make that decision on or around June 14, so during that period we’ll see where are we with hospitalisations, with deaths, where are we with the vaccine rollout – we’re doing everything we possibly can to expedite that – and then at that point, we’ll make our final decision.
Asked whether measures such as wearing masks and working from home could continue after 21 June, Jenrick told the Today programme:

Well, there are options that are clearly available to the government.
We set out within the road map what would be expected to happen at the next stage and we want to try to stick to that if we possibly can.
All of us are moving everything we can to achieve that. But of course, we keep these things under review and we’re also asking people to continue to exercise caution in their daily lives.

Yes but, no but... Urrrraaarrrgh!

 

[nagapie]

Probably not but it appears they are considering the practical and political as well as the actual situation on the ground. Its hard to see how those actions alone will reverse the situation but its even harder to see this government actually reimplementing curbs and restrictions. At this stage, anyway.

They have to consider what the public will actually follow and I imagine you'd get a lot of anger and non compliance if you tried to tighten things up to anything that looked like a lockdown right now.

 

[sheothebudworths]

One of the three feeder primaries for our secondary school has closed/gone to remote learning today because of Covid cases.

Are you pre or post a school holiday, weeps?

Omg, it's all just going to shit again, isn't it?


I wonder how many more days to come before we have a briefing (and how many BUT WE ARE DOING IT ANYWAY! briefings before the briefing where they swerve again).

 

[pogofish]

One of the three feeder primaries for our secondary school has closed/gone to remote learning today because of Covid cases.

Yup, since he went back to school, Mrs Fish’s boy’s classes have been continually sent home to isolate/WFH because of positive tests amongst his classmates - I don’t think he has managed more than a few full weeks in class yet! Thankfully he’s not at the assessment stage yet.

 

[weepiper]

Are you pre or post a school holiday, weeps?

Omg, it's all just going to shit again, isn't it?


I wonder how many more days to come before we have a briefing (and how many BUT WE ARE DOING IT ANYWAY! briefings before they serve again).

We're approaching the end of term but not very soon - schools break up for summer around the 25th of June here. My older two are in the middle of their exams-that-aren't-exams

 

[sheothebudworths]

We're approaching the end of term but not very soon - schools break up for summer around the 25th of June here. My older two are in the middle of their exams-that-aren't-exams

Yeah, three more weeks is a long time with this going on.
My girl has just finished her exams that aren't exams - and has left - although Ofsted are now saying they shouldn't have left, lol.
Total fuck up.
I hope your biggest two are holding up alright and that they reach the end safely and without more disruption and worry. I can see that's looking more and more unlikely, though - fuck sake.

 

[Brainaddict]

I'm going to write this here so I don't rant about it too much at the social event I'm attending tonight (weather had better clear up) but if you have 400% a week growth in cases in some areas of England as we do then THE FACT YOU ARE STARTING FROM FAIRLY SMALL NUMBERS OF CASES IS NOT THAT COMFORTING. I know I don't have to explain that to most people here but apparently the fucking government needs it explaining to them.

 

[lazythursday]

I'm going to write this here so I don't rant about it too much at the social event I'm attending tonight (weather had better clear up) but if you have 400% a week growth in cases in some areas of England as we do then THE FACT YOU ARE STARTING FROM FAIRLY SMALL NUMBERS OF CASES IS NOT THAT COMFORTING. I know I don't have to explain that to most people here but apparently the fucking government needs it explaining to them.

indeed, 500% increase in several of the very local MSOA areas close to me on the map - and according to local public health team it's the Delta variant and contact tracing suggests this has been spread through evening socialising, not through workplaces or cramped housing or any of the more usual hotspot explanations.

 

[elbows]

This article implies that the first fallback contingency plan will be to delay the next unlocking step by a couple of weeks.

Subscribe to read

www.ft.com

A senior civil servant closely involved with coronavirus planning said that officials were drawing up contingency plans to delay the fourth and final phase of easing, possibly to July 5, if the data suggested it was necessary. “A variety of options are being drawn up, including a delay to step four and trading off some measures against others.”

Another Whitehall insider said that there was an increasing sense that a “smallish delay” may be likely. “Irreversibility is key to this. The prime minister doesn’t want to go backwards, so if it’s a choice of more measures in the future, I think he can stomach a minor delay,” they said.

But one senior Downing Street official cautioned “we’re not in that space yet” for a delay. “There’s still nothing in the data that shows we need to change our plans”. The official added that there would be more clarity in the data by the end of next week.

Johnson isnt the only one keen to avoid a backwards step and/or the impression of a backwards step, Sturgeons speech was full of 'we are not going backwards' talk earlier this week.

 

[Supine]

Who remembers the 2m for fifteen minutes rule? Seems like the good old days now.

 

[LeytonCatLady]

Wouldn't it make more sense to wait until everyone's been offered both jabs? We're starting to see light at the end of the tunnel, don't fuck it up now...

 

[FridgeMagnet]

They will not alter any of their dates.

 

[glitch hiker]

Who remembers the 2m for fifteen minutes rule? Seems like the good old days now.

I still remember the empty shelves that stank of disinfectant (BANG! And the toilet paper's gone!).

Good times

 

[elbows]

Who remembers the 2m for fifteen minutes rule? Seems like the good old days now.

Well I certainly remember the days where pandemic policy seemed to last about 15 minutes before having to be replaced by something tougher, such was the extent to which the decision makers found themselves to be behind the curve.

 

[elbows]

They will not alter any of their dates.

I wouldnt be so sure, and Johnson already set the scene for that possibility weeks ago.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

delta variant has arrived in berkshire - surge testing about to start (i'm not in one of the areas involved at this stage)

Surge testing in Reading and Wokingham - live

Both Reading and Wokingham borough councils have released details

www.getreading.co.uk

 

[muscovyduck]

my fave was when in the middle of the tier chaos someone randomly announced we were going up to "level 5"

 

[FridgeMagnet]

I wouldnt be so sure, and Johnson already set the scene for that possibility weeks ago.

They've never altered an announced date before, and the stupid way the media works in this country means they would face much more consequence for missing a date than keeping to it but being forced to lock down afterwards because of that, and they're only interested in their appearance, so that's why I say that.

We'll see I guess. Nothing any of us can do about it.

 

[Supine]

I think the public are being softened up ready for a delay in some measures. There are news stories about long covid in kids coming up. Delays have not been ruled out.

 

[Artaxerxes]

They've blatantly lied about the situation with children throughout. They ain't going to change now.

The virus is dormant in school settings and also in pubs when offered a substantial meal.


Was not aware that the virus was literally my Dad

 

[Artaxerxes]

I wouldnt be so sure, and Johnson already set the scene for that possibility weeks ago.

Given the bodies were getting stacked 5 deep a week before Christmas and Boris still didn't announce for another 4 days I'd not take the money if someone bet me Boris would do another lockdown.

We may, possibly, probably, get extended same level of current restrictions till Autumn and the odd super targeted further restriction to some Labour council areas, but lockdown isn't happening.

 

[Raheem]

Who remembers the 2m for fifteen minutes rule? Seems like the good old days now.

Think that never went away. It was a contract-tracing threshold, and still is. Although, tbf, that also makes it irrelevant, I suppose.

 

[elbows]

Given the bodies were getting stacked 5 deep a week before Christmas and Boris still didn't announce for another 4 days I'd not take the money if someone bet me Boris would do another lockdown.

We may, possibly, probably, get extended same level of current restrictions till Autumn and the odd super targeted further restriction to some Labour council areas, but lockdown isn't happening.

There is a very simple calculation when it comes to full lockdowns. If the government thinks hospitals could collapse, then they are eventually forced to do lockdowns. But there are plenty of moments where things are not so clearcut, and we get lots of fog and mud and resistance to doing things instead. We are not currently close to a situation where they would do a full lockdown, but that doesnt mean I can make confident predictions about the future.

 

[BillRiver]

I think most of the British public fall into one of three groups:

1. Those that do what the government tells them they can and can't, no matter what.

2. Those that flout all rules and advice, and will continue to do so, no matter what.

3. Those (like me, and most of my friends) who base their behaviour on a combination of what the government advises, and what the science and data is saying.

Currently we are being much more cautious, distancing and wearing masks much more than government rules and advice says we must.

For example I'm still not meeting anyone indoors without a mask and lots of ventilation, and I'm still distancing indoors and out.

At other times we've gone the other way, eg. I met with a friend once a week in a local park, at a distance of more than 2 metres, and wearing masks, last March and April, when that was illegal.

I can't predict what the government will or won't do in the next weeks or months but I do predict that most individual members of the public will continue to fall into the same one of the groups as listed above, as they have throughout, regardless.

 

[Supine]

I think right most of the British public fall into one of three groups:

1. Those that do what the government tells them they can and can't, no matter what.

2. Those that flout all rules and advice, and will continue to do so.

3. Those (like me, and most of my friends) who base their behaviour on a combination of what the government advises, and what the science and data is saying.

Currently we are being much more cautious, distancing and wearing masks much more than government rules and advice says we must.

For example I'm still not meeting anyone indoors without a mask and lots of ventilation, and I'm still distancing indoors and out.

At other times we've gone the other way, eg. I met with a friend once a week in a local park, at a distance and wearing masks, last March and April, when that was illegal.

I can't predict what the government will or won't do in the next weeks or months but I do predict that most individual members of the public will continue to fall into the same one of the groups as listed above, as they have throughout, regardless.

Definite 3 here. I locked down a few weeks before that stuff all started getting official. I’ll probably still wear a mask when you don’t need to. I’d go to a rave in a field tonight if I was younger.

 

[Elpenor]

I’d go to a rave in a field tonight if I was younger.

lol I’d go to a rave only if I had somewhere comfy to sit down!