Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
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teuchter
je suis teuchter
From Data to Travel Freedom
IATA urged governments to make data-driven decisions to manage risks when reopening borders
IATA seems to be saying that 1 in 50 incoming air passengers turn out to have Covid ... And therefore we should ease restrictions?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
you are the g7? for that is on whom the iata are calling. it says so in your link. if you bother reading it.From Data to Travel Freedom
IATA urged governments to make data-driven decisions to manage risks when reopening borderswww.iata.org
IATA seems to be saying that 1 in 50 incoming air passengers turn out to have Covid ... And therefore we should ease restrictions?
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
I was thinking - it must feel especially devastating to have to endure all of this for the families of the people who did die yesterday.
It just gets completely lost in all the noise, doesn't it - the personal losses, set against numbers.
And now, celebrating 'Zero'. Awful.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes and by date of death on the dashboard, even with the 28 day bullshit limit, the number of UK deaths yesterday is already 2 and will likely increase further.I was thinking - it must feel especially devastating to have to endure all of this for the families of the people who did die yesterday.
It just gets completely lost in all the noise, doesn't it - the personal losses, set against numbers.
And now, celebrating 'Zero'. Awful.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I expect they'll all be posting corrections on the front pages tomorrow
TBF, the Beeb have this: How significant is a day without Covid deaths?
elbows
Well-Known Member
I expect they'll all be posting corrections on the front pages tomorrow
TBF, the Beeb have this: How significant is a day without Covid deaths?
Yeah a chunk of that is a rehash of stuff mentioned in their full article yesterday, but that didnt stop them havig that article as their main website story for many hours.
Despite seeming to be a sensible look at the detail, that article still leaves something basic out:
Death certificate figures are their own thing, updated weekly and lagging several weeks behind the current moment.
In fact as per my last post, the first thing to look at is that the daily announced deaths are not revised later, instead we just need to look at deaths by date of death on the official dashboard, figures that grow over time and are indeed subject to daily revisions as a result. And then it quickly becomes obvious that deaths reported on a particular day are never deaths that actually happened on that day, there is a minimum of 1 days lag an often much more. So the figure announced on June 1st was never about how many deaths actually happened on June 1st, and no revision to that particular figure is necessary, just the accumulation of actual data that records deaths by date of death.
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Yes, I saw that. 12 reported deaths today and still not a single day with no actual daily deaths (and then just going on the 'within 28 days' timeframe) since the beginning of March last year.
And a rise, of 17% on the week before, of hospital admissions up until 6 days ago - bit of a jump from 110 -123 for patients on mechanical ventilation in England yesterday, too.
I very much hope that none of that translates into a growth in deaths, obviously, but it's just too early to say, eh.
Certainly, actively continuing to flog June 21st as a lifting date is moronic though.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Going by UK death certificate deaths by date of death instead, the lowest things got since the first wave began was 8 deaths recorded on 29th August last year. There was one day in May thats only showing 7 so far but that might increase further in future. So its probably reasonable to claim that deaths have recently fallen to levels somewhat similar to those seen at the lowest point between waves 1 and 2. There are plenty of dates at various times where Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland had no recorded Covid deaths, but the same cannot be said for England as a whole.
Supine
Newt Member
UK in commercial negotiations with AZ for a new variant booster shot.
www.reuters.com
Britain seeks extra AstraZeneca shots to combat Beta COVID-19 variant
Britain is in talks with AstraZeneca (AZN.L) for additional doses of its COVID-19 vaccine that will have been modified to better target the Beta coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa, health minister Matt Hancock said on Wednesday.
www.reuters.com
elbows
Well-Known Member
lol Tim Spector did a video where he said that in his opinion this isnt a third wave beginning, its just a ripple. And then later in the same video he thanked the department of health for giving them several million quid to carry on their work for another year.
Its debatable quite how much I should laugh or rant about that because I suppose I cannot actually fully exclude the possibility that what we are seeing now will not turn into a large wave of the sort seen previously. But that doesnt mean I would go around claiming that I think that all we are seeing these days is a small bump in the road. Cautiously waiting to see what the reality turns out to be is the sensible approach. If the current situation turns into something horrific then it will be hard for me not to go around sarcastically remarking 'its only a ripple'.
Its debatable quite how much I should laugh or rant about that because I suppose I cannot actually fully exclude the possibility that what we are seeing now will not turn into a large wave of the sort seen previously. But that doesnt mean I would go around claiming that I think that all we are seeing these days is a small bump in the road. Cautiously waiting to see what the reality turns out to be is the sensible approach. If the current situation turns into something horrific then it will be hard for me not to go around sarcastically remarking 'its only a ripple'.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Although when I say some of that stuff I should probably point out that even last summer, when I did expect an autumn/winter wave, I had to force myself to keep an open mind about what would happen in future, rather than fully consider a 2nd wave to be a 100% certainty within the imagined timescale. Mostly because there is probable reality, and there are my own views which may become inappropriately rigid without me fully noticing, so I try not to exclude possibilities even when I deem them unlikely. And so I try to hedge my bets when making large proclamations. So far in this pandemic that has turned out to be an unnecessary watering down of my expectations, but I suppose I better stick to that approach since in theory its more likely to come in handy eventually, its just a question of when.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
elbows
Well-Known Member
It is so far beyond disgraceful that this hasnt been fixed yet that I havent had words to describe my anger about this for a long time now:
I also note this detail:
Covid-19: Health staff in plea for better protection
They say current guidance on items such as face masks leaves them vulnerable to airborne infection.
www.bbc.co.uk
I also note this detail:
elbows
Well-Known Member
A poor choice of words from the BBC live updates page wanking on about which countries will be added too the green list, given what that word has been more commonly used for recently.
(from 10am entry of BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57340860 )
(from 10am entry of BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57340860 )
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Experts monitor variants after 10 children admitted to hospital ‘with Covid’ in Scotland
‘There are still some people being hospitalised with the vaccine,’ minister says
www.independent.co.uk
As a rough average of Scotland's daily 'patients in hospital' figures over the last week or so, that'd be around 10% of them being kids under 10. Very worrying.
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elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah thats something that some raised concerns about when the situation in India itself was at its worst. I wish I could have answered it more usefully, but was stuck with 'its hard to tell because a small percentage of a very large number is still a sizeable number of people' stuff.Experts monitor variants after 10 children admitted to hospital ‘with Covid’ in Scotland
‘There are still some people being hospitalised with the vaccine,’ minister says
As a rough average of Scotland's daily 'patients in hospital' figures over the last week or so, that'd be around 10% of them being kids under 10. Very worrying.
Now that a version of that fear has reached us, I am still left with a quite long list of possible factors, and no way to rule them in or out at the moment. Some of the possibilities to consider include:
That the variant actually has a greater health impact on children.
That the variant is spreading rapidly in children, leading to high levels of infection which then automatically translates to more hospitalisations even if the variant doesnt have a worse health impact per child in this group.
That the proportions have changed because numbers of older people are reduced via vaccines.
Generally we've seen that people who are in hospital for other reasons but then catch Covid in hospital are lumped into the admissions stats, and detail that helps separate these different phenomenon can be slow or missing. So I cant exclude things like the variant spreading through childrens wards etc.
The reality is likely a mix of a number of those factors, but I cant say which ones. And probably there are a few others that havent popped into my head right now.
I'll try to find some age-related data over time later. Not sure what is available for Sotland, I might have to resort to figures for England to illustrate the picture prior to this stage.
2hats
Dust.
BBC News channel has just said that (they understand that) no countries are to be added.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
There's a big outbreak based in a primary school in the west of Edinburgh at the moment, I wonder if kids from there are some of the hospitalised children. There is also a lot of cases in my kids' high school right nowExperts monitor variants after 10 children admitted to hospital ‘with Covid’ in Scotland
‘There are still some people being hospitalised with the vaccine,’ minister says
As a rough average of Scotland's daily 'patients in hospital' figures over the last week or so, that'd be around 10% of them being kids under 10. Very worrying.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The current approach and nature of the vaccine rollout means that government are effectively still going for a 'herd immunity via infection' approach when it comes to kids and younger adults!
Public Health England still havent published the data about the delta variant and infections in children. Should be a massive scandal but the media dont seem too bothered about it.
Public Health England still havent published the data about the delta variant and infections in children. Should be a massive scandal but the media dont seem too bothered about it.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And if reports are accurate, Portugal is to be removed from the green list.
elbows
Well-Known Member
The weekly surveillance report is out. There are some graphs I would post if it werent for the fact that the height of the last peak means the scale used compresses the view of more recent climbs from a low base into a mush that isnt very easy to look at.
So here is just one graph from the supplimentary document instead.
www.gov.uk
So here is just one graph from the supplimentary document instead.
National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports
National influenza and COVID-19 report, monitoring COVID-19 activity, seasonal flu and other seasonal respiratory illnesses.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Christina Pagel tweets about the decline of testing as well:There's a big outbreak based in a primary school in the west of Edinburgh at the moment, I wonder if kids from there are some of the hospitalised children. There is also a lot of cases in my kids' high school right now
NoXion
Craicy the Squirrel
Why was the mask mandate removed? The virus is still at large. We still have to wear masks on public transport. I don't think the virus gives a shit whether you're in school or on a bus. oh, and also schoolkids are still using ordinary buses, if it were up to me I would have hired more buses just for the kids.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Latest contacts report, based on surveys they've been doing for ages:
sheothebudworths
Up the bum - no babies!!!
Are the
We had 7 cases over two days by the following Weds in the school I work in. All Year 10's, so the whole year out.
Half term now so no idea how many more cases came up from that but that's already the highest number of kids we've had at any one time, throughout.
My daughter's school (next door) sensibly decided to keep masks everywhere except classrooms at least - no cases.
Even if they don't give a fuck about kids health or their obvious ability to spread it in the community, they're now all missing even more school.
We had really got to a place where there was no need to remind them to put them on/pull them up, too - just completely fucking irresponsible and unnecessary.
It really DOES feel like a deliberate stab at herd immunity amongst children now. Cunts.
Did Scotland go with removing masks on the 17th, too?There's a big outbreak based in a primary school in the west of Edinburgh at the moment, I wonder if kids from there are some of the hospitalised children. There is also a lot of cases in my kids' high school right now
We had 7 cases over two days by the following Weds in the school I work in. All Year 10's, so the whole year out.
Half term now so no idea how many more cases came up from that but that's already the highest number of kids we've had at any one time, throughout.
My daughter's school (next door) sensibly decided to keep masks everywhere except classrooms at least - no cases.
Even if they don't give a fuck about kids health or their obvious ability to spread it in the community, they're now all missing even more school.
We had really got to a place where there was no need to remind them to put them on/pull them up, too - just completely fucking irresponsible and unnecessary.
It really DOES feel like a deliberate stab at herd immunity amongst children now. Cunts.
Any country the government stuck on a green list becoming a covid hotspot was yet another depressingly predictable outcome.
I hope the few quid the Portuguese tourist industry made from those few weeks was worth it for all the covid that's now been imported into their country.
I hope the few quid the Portuguese tourist industry made from those few weeks was worth it for all the covid that's now been imported into their country.
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