Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[platinumsage]

Thats a bit of a useless non-story, since the article itself points out weekend and bank holiday effect, and its not news that deaths have gone down to a very low level recently.

Meanwhile in terms of the future, I recommend this thread:

How does she get from 3x cases to compared to second wave = same number of hospital admissions and half as many deaths? It seems pretty outlandish to me.

 

[MJ100]

Sure, there would have been a certain percentage of people who have carried on visiting others homes throughout but I've been surprised by how many have stuck to teh rules.

There would, but there have also been easings of family mixing fairly recently, I thought (March, was it?) that would have seen people meeting up in larger numbers.

 

[elbows]

My reaction was same as littlebabyjesus .

If the delta variant is 90% of cases in an area with 10 cases then it's fair to say it's not "taking hold" in that area, I'd say.

Taking hold related to that variants dominance of the overall infection picture. Even the government acknowledged quite some time ago that it was quite likely to become the dominant strain.

In my book saying about a strain taking over does not in itself include any sense of the current level of infection, it can be said whether there are a handful of cases or hundreds of thousands of cases. I can appreciate that the term 'taking hold' may imply to some people an increase in cases more broadly, but thats not how I've been reading some of Spectors comments in this regard. Especially given his video that was posted here some time ago that was advising peole not to worry about the variant. But of course I'm going to read things a certain way because I already decided that he is a prick whose pandemic commentary is sadly wide of the mark at times where it matters.

 

[cupid_stunt]

So if it is taking hold more widely, why are we not seeing huge rises in cases? In hospitalisations? In deaths? It's been months since the variant was first spotted here, surely to god that's long enough for it to cause major rises in all those things.

Try reading the thread, follow the data & news, and become informed, instead of being a uneducated potato.

And, frankly, a complete fucking twat.

 

[elbows]

How does she get from 3x cases to compared to second wave = same number of hospital admissions and half as many deaths? It seems pretty outlandish to me.

You didnt like the modelling I kept drawing attention to either though, and much of that disagreement seemed to boil down to differences in opinion between us about how much vaccine effect it was safe to assume. I havent done my own sums on this but given the range of modelling predictions I have no particular reason to find these scenarios outlandish. Nor are they completely inevitable, my mind is partially open as far as quite how bad I expect it to get. But we probably fell out in the past because your range of what seems plausible is narrower than mine, so its not surprising if that same sort of difference in our opinions continues.

I can say that Nicola Sturgeons statement today included her saying so far they've seen the hospitalised proportion of cases go from about 10% down to about 5% in the vaccine era so far, although of course thats based on data from a period of ongoing vaccination, a continually evolving situation. And I should check the exact wording she used, I will report back on that.

 

[cupid_stunt]

There would, but there have also been easings of family mixing fairly recently, I thought (March, was it?) that would have seen people meeting up in larger numbers.

No, for indoor mixing, May.

 

[elbows]

The bit of Sturgeons statement I was on about:

For example, since January in Scotland, the proportion of new cases which lead to hospital admission has reduced - on current estimates from 10% to 5% - although it is important to say that we are still assessing the recent impact of the new variant.

In addition, the length of time people are spending in hospital has also been reducing quite markedly since the new year - though, again, we are monitoring the data closely and carefully.

Her speech as a whole is a bit of a balancing act and a fudge of priorities, but at least she is hedging some bets rather than going full steam ahead on every front:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) update: First Minister's statement - 1 June 2021

Statement given by the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at the Scottish Parliament, Edinburgh on Tuesday 1 June 2021.

www.gov.scot

 

[platinumsage]

You didnt like the modelling I kept drawing attention to either though, and much of that disagreement seemed to boil down to differences in opinion between us about how much vaccine effect it was safe to assume. I havent done my own sums on this but given the range of modelling predictions I have no particular reason to find these scenarios outlandish. Nor are they completely inevitable, my mind is partially open as far as quite how bad I expect it to get. But we probably fell out in the past because your range of what seems plausible is narrower than mine, so its not surprising if that same sort of difference continues.

I’ll have to rack open my own calculations tomorrow.

I‘m not sure we fell out, just disagreed. FWIW I’ve noticed on Twitter and elsewhere that a person’s optimism or pessimism about the current situation seems less related to the science, and more about how their general personality sits in the optimistic-pessimistic axis, or dare I say it, their politics. Scientists with no special knowledge on the matter tend to be amplified on social media based on the extremeness of the predictions rather than any kind of peer recognition of their methods or conclusions.

 

[elbows]

No, I'm not. Like I just said, there's a fucking difference between being concerned and openly saying 'people should be worried.' Shit like this pisses me off massively, as does your complete and disgusting dismissal of people's mental health with a casual insult. I have NEVER said we shouldn't be concerned, I have NEVER said we shouldn't implement restrictions where necessary, I have NEVER said the previous lockdowns were not necessary, I have NEVER said we shouldn't delay this next step, and I have NEVER said that the Indian variant is not a potential problem (in fact I have expressed my concern about it before several times such as when I suggested forming a 'ring of vaccines' around the hotspots). The fact that you want to ignore that and also ignore the fact that some scientists have said inappropriate things just to insult me, again, says a lot about your attitude and your personality.

If people are not worried about the new variant then this will impact on their behaviours and make future restrictions, and future negative impact on mental health, more likely.

I used the word shithead specifically because youd used the term to describe those who said things you arent happy with. I left out the fucking bit, but as it happens I am happy to call you a fucking shithead.

 

[pinkmonkey]

and my brother has it now, he had one vaccine but he still has symptoms, says he feels sweaty and tired.

they had a call from public health england, it's the Indian variant. Despite having one vacc, my brother is still pretty ill, he says he's exhausted, has a fever and a tight chest /stuffy nose.

 

[elbows]

I’ll have to rack open my own calculations tomorrow.

I‘m not sure we fell out, just disagreed. FWIW I’ve noticed on Twitter and elsewhere that a person’s optimism or pessimism about the current situation seems less related to the science, and more about how their general personality sits in the optimistic-pessimistic axis, or dare I say it, their politics. Scientists with no special knowledge on the matter tend to be amplified on social media based on the extremeness of the predictions rather than any kind of peer recognition of their methods or conclusions.

Well I mostly quote people on twitter who are known for their other avenues, whether it be the ZOE bloke who I am at odds with, or the Indie SAGE people like Christina Pagel who I respect. I havent really checked who get amplified on social media, I just keep returning to the same sources that I am already familiar with, although I will occasionally choose others with something interesting (or something I consider stupid) to say that matches the moment.

Optimists and wishful thinkers have not been well suited to the pandemic so far. There are exceptions in certain areas - I would not want can't do mentalities or defeatism to have gotten in the way of the vaccine development and rollout programme, for example. And eventually this should change, its just a question of when.

And I do expect that if I stick for too long to the pandemic stance that everyone is used to hearing from me so far, I will eventually fall foul of reality and be proven wrong in a happy and glorious way. Maybe I will manage to avoid that by picking the right moment to adjust my sense of reality and future wave risk. But I'd really quite like that outcome eventually because it will mean the pandemic has gone beyond the acute phase before I expected it to.

I would be keen to hear about your own calculations. I'll try not to be a dick about the detail, even if I dont quite agree with them.

 

[elbows]

they had a call from public health england, it's the Indian variant. Despite having one vacc, my brother is still pretty ill, he says he's exhausted, has a fever and a tight chest /stuffy nose.

Sorry to hear that. Authorities are particularly concerned about the ability of the new variant to infect people who've only had one dose of vaccine, and this is why ramping up and bringing forwards second doses was in the news quite a bit in May. Hope your brother is feeling better soon.

 

[pinkmonkey]

Sorry to hear that. Authorities are particularly concerned about the ability of the new variant to infect people who've only had one dose of vaccine, and this is why ramping up and bringing forwards second doses was in the news quite a bit in May. Hope your brother is feeling better soon.

thanks, he's quite shocked at how ill he's got, but he and I are in a high risk category and even the vaccine knocked me off my feet. People are acting like it's over, it so very isn't over.

 

[existentialist]

Aren't pubs open now, like inside? The messaging is: it's fine now, go and get pissed. And I can understand young people going for it. The government have been too gung ho.

The government have failed - as ever - to think about the longer-term consequences of their messaging and decision making (assuming there's been much of the latter...).

 

[elbows]

I downloaded the zoe app last year and started logging my symptoms (or lack of) daily. I’ve gotten pretty disillusioned with the project since Spector’s analysis on things seems way off key & have stopped contributing my data. Possibly the data is still useful and worth inputting to the app though?

The app was useful in several ways. It had a somewhat similar function to the more general population surveillance survey things like the ONS one and REACT, with ZOE having the advantage of being able to release their data in a very timely fashion. It was also of use when determining which symptoms were important to associate with COVID infection.

My negative opinion of Tim Spectors pandemic opinions is something I treat separately to the app and its data/analysis. It wouldnt put me off using the app if I was a user. I never signed up to use it because I hardly ever go out in this andemic and so would have had no symptoms etc to report.

More recently the app has been useful for looking at what symptoms people who have been vaccinated but still end up getting infected are seeing - they found that vaccinated people are more likely to sneeze if infected.

Limitations of the app include not having enough active users in some regions to be able to produce certain estimates for those areas. They may have suffered from a decline in active users overall as perceptions of the pandemic change. And there is probably underrepresentation of certain parts of society in their apps userbase. Some weeks ago they had to adjust various estimates because they determined that a higher proportion of their users had been vaccinated than the vaccinated proportion of wider society.

 

[existentialist]

The app was useful in several ways. It had a somewhat similar function to the more general population surveillance survey things like the ONS one and REACT, with ZOE having the advantage of being able to release their data in a very timely fashion. It was also of use when determining which symptoms were important to associate with COVID infection.

My negative opinion of Tim Spectors pandemic opinions is something I treat separately to the app and its data/analysis. It wouldnt put me off using the app if I was a user. I never signed up to use it because I hardly ever go out in this andemic and so would have had no symptoms etc to report.

More recently the app has been useful for looking at what symptoms people who have been vaccinated but still end up getting infected are seeing - they found that vaccinated people are more likely to sneeze if infected.

Limitations of the app include not having enough active users in some regions to be able to produce certain estimates for those areas. They may have suffered from a decline in active users overall as perceptions of the pandemic change. And there is probably underrepresentation of certain parts of society in their apps userbase. Some weeks ago they had to adjust various estimates because they determined that a higher proportion of their users had been vaccinated than the vaccinated proportion of wider society.

I'm still using it, but the high point of the last year was the day I was able to say "Yes, I have had a vaccine". It's all been a bit downhill from there - it doesn't even ask me how many people I've been within 1m of any more (the answer was nearly always zero, anyway, but that's not the point )

 

[elbows]

Interesting, I wonder what their excuse was for not asking that question anymore. I might look into that.

 

[xenon]

That's true, but people have been mixing indoors for months, and schools have been open for months, and they are meant to be the major channels of spread. I suppose we'd have more detail on that if the government weren't allegedly suppressing the data regarding schools.

Indoor mixing of different households, bubbles aside, has only been allowed since 17th of May. Some people were ignoring that before then of course but how much of that has contributed to cases, is unknowable.

I actually agree on the point about alarmist language though. It's not doing anyone any favours. A cool assessment of the risks and possible mitigations is more helpful.

I think delaying the 21st final lifting of restrictions only seems sensible just now though.

 

[souljacker]

I'm still using it, but the high point of the last year was the day I was able to say "Yes, I have had a vaccine". It's all been a bit downhill from there - it doesn't even ask me how many people I've been within 1m of any more (the answer was nearly always zero, anyway, but that's not the point )

It never asked me that. It only asked questions a few times but it was usually where have you been sort of questions and did you wear a mask.

 

[MJ100]

No, for indoor mixing, May.

I didn't say indoor, did I?

The lockdown rules that will be eased on 29 March under England's roadmap

The Rule of Six is set to return in public outdoor spaces on 29 March

inews.co.uk

 

[MJ100]

If people are not worried about the new variant then this will impact on their behaviours and make future restrictions, and future negative impact on mental health, more likely.

I used the word shithead specifically because youd used the term to describe those who said things you arent happy with. I left out the fucking bit, but as it happens I am happy to call you a fucking shithead.

So your argument boils down to two things.

1) You think people should be 'worried,' I think they should be 'concerned,'
2) You can sit there and call respected scientists, economists, sociologists and other experts 'shitheads' and 'pandemic cunts' (Spector and Dingwall most recently), and even dismiss practically everything they've ever said for saying one thing you disagree with, but how dare anyone else disagree with one thing said by someone you happen to agree with?

Gotcha.

 

[MJ100]

Indoor mixing of different households, bubbles aside, has only been allowed since 17th of May. Some people were ignoring that before then of course but how much of that has contributed to cases, is unknowable.

I actually agree on the point about alarmist language though. It's not doing anyone any favours. A cool assessment of the risks and possible mitigations is more helpful.

I think delaying the 21st final lifting of restrictions only seems sensible just now though.

I was thinking of the 'rule of 6' that came back in in March, which involved going into people's gardens etc. I agree that we should delay things a bit though. The question then is how long for? Until schools break up? Until all the vulnerable groups have had two jabs? Until we reach a certain percentage of 1st or 2nd doses being given?

 

[cupid_stunt]

I didn't say indoor, did I?

The lockdown rules that will be eased on 29 March under England's roadmap

The Rule of Six is set to return in public outdoor spaces on 29 March

inews.co.uk

Pardon?

That's true, but people have been mixing indoors for months,...

You fucking clown.

 

[existentialist]

So your argument boils down to two things.

1) You think people should be 'worried,' I think they should be 'concerned,'
2) You can sit there and call respected scientists, economists, sociologists and other experts 'shitheads' and 'pandemic cunts' (Spector and Dingwall most recently), and even dismiss practically everything they've ever said for saying one thing you disagree with, but how dare anyone else disagree with one thing said by someone you happen to agree with?

Gotcha.

I am sure it's well past time someone else told you to fuck off.

 

[existentialist]

So if it is taking hold more widely, why are we not seeing huge rises in cases? In hospitalisations? In deaths? It's been months since the variant was first spotted here, surely to god that's long enough for it to cause major rises in all those things.

"...Surely to god..."

So, speculation, then.

 

[Supine]

Why are we not seeing huge numbers of cases? The answer is you are not looking at the data.

 

[elbows]

So your argument boils down to two things.

1) You think people should be 'worried,' I think they should be 'concerned,'
2) You can sit there and call respected scientists, economists, sociologists and other experts 'shitheads' and 'pandemic cunts' (Spector and Dingwall most recently), and even dismiss practically everything they've ever said for saying one thing you disagree with, but how dare anyone else disagree with one thing said by someone you happen to agree with?

Gotcha.

I go into tedious detail about why I disagree with people and why think some of them deserve to be regarded as dangerous idiots in the pandemic. Its not hard, since some of them have impressive track records of dismal failure, the detail of which I can point out either at the time or bring up again later. I could do the same with you but who cares. They and their attitudes are partly to blame for the second wave. Fuck them, I dont respect them, and I spend a lot of time explaining why. The extent to which I call them rude names varies and only distracts from the detail when shit heads like you come along and pick on my language because there isnt much else for you to get your teeth into, so feeble is your substance.

Meanwhile I have emphasised this bit because its a fair fit:

UK Covid: zero deaths reported today but daily cases above 3,000 – as it happened

UK records no new deaths within 28 days of a positive test but 3,165 new cases amid warnings the pandemic is not over

www.theguardian.com

Discussing his warning over the 21 June unlocking, Professor Adam Finn, from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

There are a lot of people who are very fed up about the idea of us even worrying about this.

Since I’ve been saying in the last 24 hours that we should be cautious I’ve been getting lots of messages from people telling me to shut up basically.

But the truth is that a more infectious virus, which is what it looks like we’ve got, will reach people who are vulnerable - those who did not make a good response to the vaccine, those who have not yet had their doses - and that will be a problem for everyone because in the end it will be worse economically as well as for public health if we end up having to shut down again.

 

[l'Otters]

Interesting, I wonder what their excuse was for not asking that question anymore. I might look into that.

I’m pretty sure they stopped asking about contacts etc when the track n trace app came out.

I was finding those q’s quite interesting / useful to answer regularly - it was once a week iirc - as it made me consider how my levels of in person interactions etc were fluctuating as the weeks & months passed.

 

[elbows]

I also think its important to either highlight peoples track records or insult them as shorthand for a more detailed study of their past bullshit, because their latest proclamations may include some areas of truth, but distorted to fit their own long-standing preferences.

Take another bit of what Dingwall the pandemic cunt was saying to Times Radio today:

11h ago 10:07

By the time we get to June 21, everybody who is in the nine priority groups or the highest risk will have had both jabs, and would have had a period of time to consolidate the immunity.

What are we going on with is really running into younger age groups who are intrinsically much lower risk. Many of the scientists who’ve been talking over the weekend simply haven’t adjusted their expectations to understand that - (for these people) Covid is a mild illness in the community.

As the Director of Public Health Bolton was saying last week, the people who are going into hospital... it’s not like January, these are not desperately ill people.

They’re people who need a little bit of extra support with oxygen, they need access to the dexamethasone treatment, which is very effective.

They go in, stay in hospital for three or four days and they go out again. There is no realistic prospect of the NHS facing the sorts of pressures that it faced in January and February. And that’s why I think we have to we have to push on with this.

Its important to know that before the first wave really got going his attitude towards the level of illness that would be seen was also a load of shit. As time goes on the actual reality of the situation is likely to move a bit closer to his bullshit. Variants pose questions with currently unknwon answers in terms of setbacks on that front. And so I will not be relaxing and deciding to treat the illness as something people just need to pop into hospital for a few days for at this stage. I wont downplay it in the way Dingwall does, because however reasonable his views and expertise might for all I know turn out to be in other areas of health and society, he has been a dangerous idiot in the acute phases of this pandemic. We will know we are really in a different phase of living with this virus when many of the claims of Dingwall and those like him no longer earn a sweary rant from me. It will happen eventually. Not yet.

 

[elbows]

And why should I offer event he slightest respect to someone who comes out with this, as Dingwall did today:

11h ago 09:41

I think we need to recognise the way in which levels of fear and anxiety in the population have been amplified over the last 15 months or so.

We’ve got to look at the collateral damage in terms of untreated cancers, untreated heart conditions, all of the other things that people suffer from.

Again that was also his stance right at the start, before people saw the horror for themselves. I dont think he has adapted sensibly to pandemic reality at any stage, he will just keep playing the same tune until such a time as there is actually a chance of erring on the side of caution actually doing more harm than good.

Fear and anxiety are best managed via an effective response that instills confidence, not by making claims that will not stand the test of pandemic time.

And the collateral damage argument has been shown to be an absurd distortion already because taking a stance of avoiding lockdowns etc doesnt avoid that damage at all. Rather it makes it larger and more prolonged because other health services still get suspended due to the levels of infection that are reached by failing to impose the right restrictions at the right time. There will be many terrible medium and long term health consequences from this pandemic, but Dingwall and his ilk would not have helped avoid this.

It would not be easy to design a healthcare system that could have avoided these other consequences in this sort of pandemic. The most likely way to achieve it would have been to try a policy of actually keeping the virus out in the first place and stamping down very hard on the early outbreaks caused by early cases that did get through. Once things had gone out of control far beyond that, its much harder. A much larger health service with more staff and spare capacity all sorts of other things could have helped a bit. As could a much better attitude and capability in regards hospital infection control, and public confidence about going to hospital at a time of high infection rates. Even then, there would still be problems and health damage that would take a long time to recover from.

If you ask me the first lesson of this pandemic, apart from the lockdown-related stuff like acting early, travel restrictions etc, is that nations should be spending a much greater proportion of their wealth on healthcare. Its not a waste of money in normal times unless you have shit priorities, and the pandemic has amplified that point.