This is in the face of current guidelines, right?Went to a little, 20-25 people party on Sunday night. They deliberately kept the numbers down to that and it was outside so I thought it would be OK.
This is in the face of current guidelines, right?
This seems good. Some parts of Scotland moving to level 0 from Saturday. Central belt staying at level 2 for now.
just under 3200 cases today. It doesn't seem to be spiking madly...yet. Hopefully never will. But that's the nature of this isn't it. Complacency will do us no good. OTOH, the wave may yet prove not to materialise after all. We just don't know
Covid: Zero daily deaths announced in UK for first time
The latest figures come amid concern over a recent small rise in cases linked to the Indian variant.www.bbc.co.uk
Covid: Zero daily deaths announced in UK for first time
The latest figures come amid concern over a recent small rise in cases linked to the Indian variant.www.bbc.co.uk
First day there have been no deaths since March 2020.
In fact, according to the UK’s current definition, deaths within four weeks of a positive test, there was a day with no reportable deaths last summer – on 30 July.
But the government did announce some deaths on that day as they were using a different definition at the time.
Thats a bit of a useless non-story, since the article itself points out weekend and bank holiday effect, and its not news that deaths have gone down to a very low level recently.
Meanwhile in terms of the future, I recommend this thread:
Guardian said:The government’s former chief scientific adviser, Prof Sir Mark Walport, said it was “not impossible” that the country was in the foothills of new wave.
“I hope not, but it’s not impossible,” Walport told BBC Breakfast. While the B.1.1.7 variant, or “UK variant”, was disappearing, the B.1.617.2 variant, or India variant, was taking over, he said. The World Health Organization has renamed B.1.1.7 as the Alpha variant, and B.1.617.2 as the Delta variant.
Walport said: “It is a quite perilous moment, but we’ve just got to keep our fingers crossed that the measures work.” He added: “It’s clear that the B.1.617.2 variant is taking over – it accounts for about 75% of those cases which have been typed – the numbers of infections are getting up, but we would expect that.
“On the much better news side is the fact that hospital admissions are not surging. If anything, overall they’re coming down, though in some parts of the country where the B.1.617 is at its worst they are increasing slightly, so it is genuinely very, very finely balanced.”
The thing is, we might learn what an "exponential curve" is at school, but we very rarely have it explained what it is like to be on an exponential curve. But with something like Covid, it's a classic example of the genre. And exponential curves (but also less exponential ones) all start out with small, apparently insignificant rises...which, if you're not thinking about exponential curves, seem just that - insignificant. The only way you get to find out for sure which it is, is to wait. And if you do that, then by the time you discover that it is an exponential curve, and your various lobbyists have had their say, you've hidden away from it for a week, and your cabinet has weighed in on behalf of various interested sectors, a huge opportunity has been missed, and you're now trying to alter the gradient of a now much more rapidly rising curve. Rinse and repeat. Or just look at the last 14 months in the UKjust under 3200 cases today. It doesn't seem to be spiking madly...yet. Hopefully never will. But that's the nature of this isn't it. Complacency will do us no good. OTOH, the wave may yet prove not to materialise after all. We just don't know
Tom Spectors bullshit is starting to get called out by people who know better on twitter.
He showed this graph, the proportion of tests that were the B.1.167.2. This is beyond exponential.If i understand, the point is that, because Delta is that much more transmissible, we could still end up with comparable hospital admissions even factoring in the vaccines. Delta is increasing exponentially (Dr John Campbell in his vids say it's increased 80% in a really short time).
Yet what can we say? Alarmist scientists guarding their reputations are competing daily not to be thought “soft on lockdown”. Just a few more weeks of lockdown costs them nothing. They are right that the rise in cases is exactly what preceded the previous two waves, when those who cried wolf were proved right. Do we really want to risk thousands more deaths?
At such moments we tend to fall back on our default ideologies. I believe that the ultimate proof of Britain’s success in vaccination is precisely that it can take a risk on 21 June. Provided, of course, that ministers do what they often find so hard to do: explain precisely the risk involved to the public. But just now risk assessment is wholly dependent on the flow of data.
So everyone must hold their horses. We have to honour those for whom Covid has been the most ghastly trauma and for whom lockdown remains the only line of last defence. We have, for just two weeks, to accept that the only thing we know is that we don’t know. We should, for once, respect those who must make these awful decisions for us.
Got to be careful about mixing representations here, though. So Spector's map shows overall infection levels, while the others show proportions. It's clear that the Kent variant is disappearing quickly everywhere. Looks like we'd have been in a very good place today if the Indian variant hadn't been allowed in the way it was back in April, but the Indian variant has taken over as the dominant variant in areas like the South West, South East and London without - so far - leading to significant spikes in overall numbers infected.
Spector's optimism may be misplaced or premature but it isn't entirely discredited by those other graphs.
Well, if nothing else, SJ has put into words the reasoning (or whatever passes for it) behind the current government's cack-handed approach. "If we don't know something, it can't be that bad...". Even though Jenkins himself acknowledges that the "crying wolf" on the previous two occasions was not, in fact, "crying wolf", but chillingly accurate predictions of what actually then transpired.I didnt need a pandemic to inform me that Simon Jenkins is a prick, but anyway here we are:
Bollocks should I respect them, or those whose use of language like 'alarmist', 'cried wolf' and 'costs them nothing' betrays their pretence of being reasonable.
Will ‘freedom day’ go ahead? The only thing we know is we don’t know | Simon Jenkins
As new Covid data emerges, decisions over England’s lockdown easing on 21 June will go down to the wire, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkinswww.theguardian.com
The data shows that his use of the language 'not taking hold more widely' is entirely inappropriate and thats what they were pointing out.
Bollocks should I respect them, or those whose use of language like 'alarmist', 'cried wolf' and 'costs them nothing' betrays their pretence of being reasonable.
So if it is taking hold more widely, why are we not seeing huge rises in cases? In hospitalisations? In deaths? It's been months since the variant was first spotted here, surely to god that's long enough for it to cause major rises in all those things.
You would hope that having large scale restrictions on public movement in place would suppress the virus. Restrictions on mixing inside have really only been released recently.
If you don't believe that some scientists have been alarmist over the past year then you've clearly not been paying attention to some of the cunts and their endless wailing. There's a difference between sensible concern and shouting about 12,000 deaths a day or a 'Category 5 hurricane of Covid facing the USA' without a shred of evidence to support those claims. These people need taking to task for the effect they will have had on the mental health of millions of people. Their choice of words fucking matters. It's like that Welsh prick from last week saying people should be 'Worried' about the Indian variant. Not 'concerned,' 'sensible,' 'pragmatic,' 'cautious,' or even 'nervous.' Just straight up 'worried,' he said. What a fucking shithead who clearly didn't think for one second about the effect his choice of words might have.
My reaction was same as littlebabyjesus .The data shows that his use of the language 'not taking hold more widely' is entirely inappropriate and thats what they were pointing out.
That's true, but people have been mixing indoors for months, and schools have been open for months, and they are meant to be the major channels of spread. I suppose we'd have more detail on that if the government weren't allegedly suppressing the data regarding schools.
Yep, and isn't that great...but...but...I just can't get over the hordes of troy MPs tweeting that like their celebrating 'the end'; "VC day" and all that...such irresponsible posting but, of course, we can't criticise them for pointing out that it's good.Covid: Zero daily deaths announced in UK for first time
The latest figures come amid concern over a recent small rise in cases linked to the Indian variant.www.bbc.co.uk
First day there have been no deaths since March 2020.
Everyone should be worried by the delta variant and you are a shithead whose pandemic attitude makes my blood boil.