Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
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Steel Icarus
ersatz maven
This is in the face of current guidelines, right?
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
weepiper
I fix the machines that fight climate change
Although I've just had an email from my kids' high school saying the headteacher and several staff have tested positive
just under 3200 cases today. It doesn't seem to be spiking madly...yet. Hopefully never will. But that's the nature of this isn't it. Complacency will do us no good. OTOH, the wave may yet prove not to materialise after all. We just don't know
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
TBF, the number of tests being reported over the bank holiday period are well down, e.g., we were averaging almost 900k a day last week, and only just over 600k reported today, covering yesterday.
Yet, despite that, the creeping up of cases continues, yesterday new cases were up 28.8% week-on-week, today it's 31.9%.
Indeliblelink
\......👁&👁......./
Covid: Zero daily deaths announced in UK for first time
The latest figures come amid concern over a recent small rise in cases linked to the Indian variant.
www.bbc.co.uk
First day there have been no deaths since March 2020.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Covid: Zero daily deaths announced in UK for first time
The latest figures come amid concern over a recent small rise in cases linked to the Indian variant.www.bbc.co.uk
Thats a bit of a useless non-story, since the article itself points out weekend and bank holiday effect, and its not news that deaths have gone down to a very low level recently.
Meanwhile in terms of the future, I recommend this thread:
cupid_stunt
Merry fecking Christmas.
Covid: Zero daily deaths announced in UK for first time
The latest figures come amid concern over a recent small rise in cases linked to the Indian variant.www.bbc.co.uk
First day there have been no deaths since March 2020.
No deaths reported, bank holiday lag in reporting.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Speaking of that, here are the latest figures comparing the 28 day death measure with the 60 day measure. Doesnt include deaths that were recorded before the end of June 2020.
Thats from the weekly surveillance report https://assets.publishing.service.g...989845/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w21.pdf
Thats from the weekly surveillance report https://assets.publishing.service.g...989845/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w21.pdf
If i understand, the point is that, because Delta is that much more transmissible, we could still end up with comparable hospital admissions even factoring in the vaccines. Delta is increasing exponentially (Dr John Campbell in his vids say it's increased 80% in a really short time).
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
The thing is, we might learn what an "exponential curve" is at school, but we very rarely have it explained what it is like to be on an exponential curve. But with something like Covid, it's a classic example of the genre. And exponential curves (but also less exponential ones) all start out with small, apparently insignificant rises...which, if you're not thinking about exponential curves, seem just that - insignificant. The only way you get to find out for sure which it is, is to wait. And if you do that, then by the time you discover that it is an exponential curve, and your various lobbyists have had their say, you've hidden away from it for a week, and your cabinet has weighed in on behalf of various interested sectors, a huge opportunity has been missed, and you're now trying to alter the gradient of a now much more rapidly rising curve. Rinse and repeat. Or just look at the last 14 months in the UK
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Got to be careful about mixing representations here, though. So Spector's map shows overall infection levels, while the others show proportions. It's clear that the Kent variant is disappearing quickly everywhere. Looks like we'd have been in a very good place today if the Indian variant hadn't been allowed in the way it was back in April, but the Indian variant has taken over as the dominant variant in areas like the South West, South East and London without - so far - leading to significant spikes in overall numbers infected.
Spector's optimism may be misplaced or premature but it isn't entirely discredited by those other graphs.
Sunray
Its sunny somewhere.
He showed this graph, the proportion of tests that were the B.1.167.2. This is beyond exponential.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I didnt need a pandemic to inform me that Simon Jenkins is a prick, but anyway here we are:
Bollocks should I respect them, or those whose use of language like 'alarmist', 'cried wolf' and 'costs them nothing' betrays their pretence of being reasonable.
www.theguardian.com
Bollocks should I respect them, or those whose use of language like 'alarmist', 'cried wolf' and 'costs them nothing' betrays their pretence of being reasonable.
Will ‘freedom day’ go ahead? The only thing we know is we don’t know | Simon Jenkins
As new Covid data emerges, decisions over England’s lockdown easing on 21 June will go down to the wire, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins
elbows
Well-Known Member
The data shows that his use of the language 'not taking hold more widely' is entirely inappropriate and thats what they were pointing out.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Well, if nothing else, SJ has put into words the reasoning (or whatever passes for it) behind the current government's cack-handed approach. "If we don't know something, it can't be that bad...". Even though Jenkins himself acknowledges that the "crying wolf" on the previous two occasions was not, in fact, "crying wolf", but chillingly accurate predictions of what actually then transpired.I didnt need a pandemic to inform me that Simon Jenkins is a prick, but anyway here we are:
Bollocks should I respect them, or those whose use of language like 'alarmist', 'cried wolf' and 'costs them nothing' betrays their pretence of being reasonable.
Will ‘freedom day’ go ahead? The only thing we know is we don’t know | Simon Jenkins
As new Covid data emerges, decisions over England’s lockdown easing on 21 June will go down to the wire, says Guardian columnist Simon Jenkins
With people like this doing our large-scale thinking for us, what hope do we have?
l'Otters
.
I downloaded the zoe app last year and started logging my symptoms (or lack of) daily. I’ve gotten pretty disillusioned with the project since Spector’s analysis on things seems way off key & have stopped contributing my data. Possibly the data is still useful and worth inputting to the app though?
So if it is taking hold more widely, why are we not seeing huge rises in cases? In hospitalisations? In deaths? It's been months since the variant was first spotted here, surely to god that's long enough for it to cause major rises in all those things.
If you don't believe that some scientists have been alarmist over the past year then you've clearly not been paying attention to some of the cunts and their endless wailing. There's a difference between sensible concern and shouting about 12,000 deaths a day or a 'Category 5 hurricane of Covid facing the USA' (the latter being said just a couple of months ago) without a shred of evidence to support those claims. These people need taking to task for the effect they will have had on the mental health of millions of people. Their choice of words fucking matters. It's like that Welsh prick from last week saying people should be 'Worried' about the Indian variant. Not 'concerned,' 'sensible,' 'pragmatic,' 'cautious,' or even 'nervous.' Just straight up 'worried,' he said. What a fucking shithead who clearly didn't think for one second about the effect his choice of words might have.
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You would hope that having large scale restrictions on public movement in place would suppress the virus. Restrictions on mixing inside have really only been released recently.
That's true, but people have been mixing indoors for months, and schools have been open for months, and they are meant to be the major channels of spread. I suppose we'd have more detail on that if the government weren't allegedly suppressing the data regarding schools.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Everyone should be worried by the delta variant and you are a shithead whose pandemic attitude makes my blood boil.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
My reaction was same as littlebabyjesus .
If the delta variant is 90% of cases in an area with 10 cases then it's fair to say it's not "taking hold" in that area, I'd say.
Sure, there would have been a certain percentage of people who have carried on visiting others homes throughout but I've been surprised by how many have stuck to teh rules.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Yep, and isn't that great...but...but...I just can't get over the hordes of troy MPs tweeting that like their celebrating 'the end'; "VC day" and all that...such irresponsible posting but, of course, we can't criticise them for pointing out that it's good.Covid: Zero daily deaths announced in UK for first time
The latest figures come amid concern over a recent small rise in cases linked to the Indian variant.www.bbc.co.uk
First day there have been no deaths since March 2020.
Angry, confused and not very coherent; sorry.
No, I'm not. Like I just said, there's a fucking difference between being concerned and openly saying 'people should be worried.' Shit like this pisses me off massively, as does your complete and disgusting dismissal of people's mental health with a casual insult. I have NEVER said we shouldn't be concerned, I have NEVER said we shouldn't implement restrictions where necessary, I have NEVER said the previous lockdowns were not necessary, I have NEVER said we shouldn't delay this next step, and I have NEVER said that the Indian variant is not a potential problem (in fact I have expressed my concern about it before several times such as when I suggested forming a 'ring of vaccines' around the hotspots). The fact that you want to ignore that and also ignore the fact that some scientists have said inappropriate things just to insult me, again, says a lot about your attitude and your personality.
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