Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
- Thread starter Sasaferrato
- Start date
And almost certainly bollocks.
elbows
Well-Known Member
I've rewritten part of his statement.
Today we are on a one-way smart motorway to freedom. There will be deaths on the lane that was formerly the hard shoulder, but we will carry on driving. We are redefining safety so that such deaths do not count against it, and with that in mind I am confident that everyone can return to school safely. The only exception will be my fellow MPs for whom there is no prospect of learning from the schooling they've received at the hands of this pandemic virus.
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cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
They are not exact dates, they are only a guideline, subject to constant reviews of the data.
Anyway, the roadmap is here -
Lockdown: Boris Johnson unveils plan to end England restrictions by 21 June
Shops, hairdressers, gyms and outdoor hospitality could reopen on 12 April, Boris Johnson says.
www.bbc.co.uk
souljacker
innit
It all sounds bonkers and dangerous but I can't help having a smile on my face for the first time since March 2020. I'm actually going to be able to see some mates. I can go round my mums and have a glass of wine in the garden. I might even get to a festival this summer. W00t!!
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
Then there’s all the 40, 50, 60 and 70 years olds breaking the rules too. Don’t just blame it on the young, Abe
You'll find no blame here! The only party I hold responsible for the current state of our country is the Government.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
I've been very cautious, and generally have been very pro-restrictions and lockdowns over the last year, but I think this pace and order feels about right to me tbh. It's still months away for any significant indoor mixing, and there's the caveat that for things to change on those dates they have to fulfill the criteria mentioned.
On schools opening I'm not sure, I don't have a kid and I'm not a teacher so feels a bit not my area, but I can see both sides, and I do know plenty of parents that are desperate for schools to open now (not that I think that should dictate what happens) for some very good reasons.
There's lots in the last year that I've found very easy with lockdown, but even I'm feeling ready for some easing now, the chance to meet up with people and have some more social contact, even though that comes with slightly more risk. And I can see in work (healthcare) that the people I come across are more mentally frayed and more (non-covid) unwell in the last month or so due to the complex and compounded issues the last year has caused, so it does feel with the newer data and vaccine roll-out people want and need some things to change.
On schools opening I'm not sure, I don't have a kid and I'm not a teacher so feels a bit not my area, but I can see both sides, and I do know plenty of parents that are desperate for schools to open now (not that I think that should dictate what happens) for some very good reasons.
There's lots in the last year that I've found very easy with lockdown, but even I'm feeling ready for some easing now, the chance to meet up with people and have some more social contact, even though that comes with slightly more risk. And I can see in work (healthcare) that the people I come across are more mentally frayed and more (non-covid) unwell in the last month or so due to the complex and compounded issues the last year has caused, so it does feel with the newer data and vaccine roll-out people want and need some things to change.
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cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
I totally agree, subject to the data & backed by the vaccine roll-out, it seems a reasonable timeline guide.
I see secondary school pupils will be required to wear face coverings in classrooms this time around.
Orang Utan
Psychick Worrier Ov Geyoor
I think some parents will be at breaking point by now depending on circumstances.
My brother and SIL are going a bit spare with their nonstop chatty 7 year old and 2 year old active escapologist adventurer.
I saw a customer in the street with her young son who has autism and she looked totally done in. She was saying she couldn’t wait for the schools to reopen.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Amid all the rather niche shit about people dying and economic collapse, to my utter disgust I find that the holiday I'd booked for April won't happen - the restrictions on such things end (no earlier, and quite possibly later than) halfway through the booking.
Balls.
Balls.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yes. I'll never be able to promise everyone that the relaxation is irreversible because of the unknowns on the mutation and vaccine failure front. But that also means it would be stupid for me to demand no unlocking until I am more certain about those things, because that time may well never come. Nor can I demand that authorities and individuals never push their luck. By at least including gaps between phases for data accumulation and analysis, there is a chance that luck can be pushed slowly enough that we can learn from it without multiplying the risks too much, that we wont push luck straight over a cliff.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Starmer still goes on about solving the problem of school disruption due to high levels of teachers self-isolation by vaccinating teachers. But that is not the only key that would be necessary to unlock such possibilities, the rules would also need to be changed so that people with particular vaccination histories no longer need to follow the self-isolation rules. Or different changes to the self-isolation rules that would have the same effect. And I've not noticed Starmer acknowledging that bit.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Today's update -
First dose vaccinations now just over 17.7m - second doses are now just over 625k - that's a very low increase on yesterday.
New cases - 10,641, overall a drop of 11.1% in the last week - that's another very low percentage drop, compared to the 25%+ we were seeing.
New deaths - 178, which is down 52 on last Monday's 230, that brings the 7-day average down to around 481 a day, a drop of 26.9% in the last week.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
is it now? what do you believe it means?Today's update -
First dose vaccinations now just over 17.7m - second doses are now just over 625k - that's a very low increase on yesterday.
New cases - 10,641, overall a drop of 11.1% in the last week - that's another very low percentage drop, compared to the 25%+ we were seeing.
New deaths - 178, which is down 52 on last Monday's 230, that brings the 7-day average down to around 481 a day, a drop of 26.9% in the last week.
elbows
Well-Known Member
New cases - 10,641, overall a drop of 11.1% in the last week - that's another very low percentage drop, compared to the 25%+ we were seeing.
As I've been saying recently, I'm not sure its fair to even talk about it as dropping any more.
Listening to the rhetoric of recent days, do not be surprised if cases increase from the current level. But that government, after allowing for the lag between different measures, will actually turn this into a celebration of how the ratio of hospitalisations and deaths to cases is changing, and how some of those are still going down while cases rise. Unless of course something else goes wrong and that isnt what ends up being seen.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
c4u
editor
hiraethified
Here's the updates:
Step two will happen no earlier than 12 April
Step three will happen no earlier than 17 May
Step two will happen no earlier than 12 April
- Non-essential retail, hairdressers, nail salons, libraries and museums open
- Outdoor hospitality in pubs and restaurants allowed with households or rule-of-six
- Most outdoor settings reopen such as zoos and theme parks
- Gyms and indoor swimming pools open
- Self catering holiday accommodation and camp sites reopen
- Funerals continue with up to 30 people
- Weddings with up to 15 people.
Step three will happen no earlier than 17 May
- Outdoors most social contact rules lifted, up to limit of 30 people
- Mixing indoors allowed for two households, but rule-of-six for indoor hospitality and elsewhere
- Cinemas, soft play centres, rest of accommodation sector, hotels, indoor exercise classes return
- Performances and sporting events resume - larger performances with venues 1,000+ or half full will be allowed indoors and outdoors 4,000 capacity or half full (whichever lowest)
- In very largest outdoor seated venues such as football stadiums up to 10,000 people allowed to attend (or 1/4 full whichever is lowest)
- Up to 30 people can attend weddings, receptions, funerals, wakes.
editor
hiraethified
Step one
On 8 March
On 8 March
- all students return to schools and colleges, and school clubs can resume
- Secondary school students will be required to wear masks in class as well as communal areas
- People can meet one other person outside for recreation, not just exercise
- Care home residents allowed one regular named visitor
- Stay at home order remains in place.
- Outdoor gatherings of up to six people or two households allowed, including meeting in private gardens
- Outdoor sports facilities such as tennis and basketball courts and outdoor swimming pools allowed to reopen; organised outdoor sports can resume
- Stay at home order ends but people encouraged to stay local wherever they can
- Work from home wherever possible
- No overseas travel.
prunus
Tick tock.
He has a point - without changing the isolation rules - if teachers were vaccinated they would (it seems from all the evidence) be less likely to catch it, and thus exhibit symptoms and/or test positive and have to isolate.
The next logical step (on this particular road) would be to vaccinate the people that school staff live with, to minimise the chance that they’d have to isolate second hand (again without changing the rules).
Cid
Proper break this time
I also don't see any particular problems with timing... seems reasonably cautious in general. I don't particularly like the whole dates thing though, and as mentioned 'irreversible' is just stupid.
The one thing that leaves me pretty uncomfortable is schools... It's difficult to know exactly how that could be managed, given that it is kind of important to get kids back in. But I suspect the absolute minimum will be done. I know that Korea, for example, staggered attendance to keep overall numbers down. And a wider vaccine programme in teaching staff would make sense... I would feel a lot more comfortable if back to school was left until after easter holidays I think. We're just now vaccinating those of us who are younger, but with moderate risk factors after all; were I a teacher I'd be going back just under 3 weeks since first dose.
The one thing that leaves me pretty uncomfortable is schools... It's difficult to know exactly how that could be managed, given that it is kind of important to get kids back in. But I suspect the absolute minimum will be done. I know that Korea, for example, staggered attendance to keep overall numbers down. And a wider vaccine programme in teaching staff would make sense... I would feel a lot more comfortable if back to school was left until after easter holidays I think. We're just now vaccinating those of us who are younger, but with moderate risk factors after all; were I a teacher I'd be going back just under 3 weeks since first dose.
editor
hiraethified
Step four, from no earlier than 21 June:
- All legal limits on social contact removed with ambition to reopen final closed sectors of the economy such as nightclubs
- Hope to lift restrictions on large events and performances
- Hope to remove all limits on weddings and other "life events"
BigMoaner
What A Load of Old Bollocks
elbows
Well-Known Member
True, although its still incompatible with the schools reopening timing that Starmer is keen to support. There wont have been enough time to properly build post-vaccination immunity before schools reopen.
I just can't see step 4 happening in that time frame. I just can't. I don't know how we go from it not being safe to sit inside a restaurant and then 5 weeks later packed out live venues and thousands gathering for festivals etc.
All this before hundreds of thousands (probably millions) of adults will still not have had their first jab. Oh well, fingers cross as ever.
All this before hundreds of thousands (probably millions) of adults will still not have had their first jab. Oh well, fingers cross as ever.
elbows
Well-Known Member
Why not? The numbers game that caused this government to bring in strong restrictions contrary to its instincts and perceived economic interests is all about number of people hospitalised. If those equations are fundamentally changed by vaccines then the things proposed seem well possible within the proposed timescales.
Cloo
Banana for scale
The only move in this that sounded quite smart is not opening outdoor attractions until basically end of Easter hols, thus avoiding a massive rush to them during the break. Also, changing it to 'rule of 6 or 2 households', just allowing a family of 4 to meet a family of 4 would be a huge help, and there'd be a chance I could go up to see my sister and family for a walk in the Chilterns, where they moved in September. I got there just before walls closed in at end of October, but haven't see her since.
21st date is 5 days from daughter's postponed bat mitzvah. I'm not believing it for a minute, but even if they did scrap restrictions by or near then I think the most we'd do would be get immediate family together (21 people) in one of our parents' gardens, which is out fall back flexible plan if there's any allowance for it. We're fortunate to have parents with big gardens!
21st date is 5 days from daughter's postponed bat mitzvah. I'm not believing it for a minute, but even if they did scrap restrictions by or near then I think the most we'd do would be get immediate family together (21 people) in one of our parents' gardens, which is out fall back flexible plan if there's any allowance for it. We're fortunate to have parents with big gardens!
Well clearly they think its possible. There have been an awful lot of stories about how some forms of defence such as social distancing will be with us for a good while yet. The stage 4 stuff is where social distancing is largely impossible and on a scale which could have a dramatic impact. Seems to me by allowing these things to go ahead they are basically saying there will be no need for social distancing anymore.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Within a month we'll be in a situation where everyone who accepts the jab aged 50 or more will have a reasonable degree of protection whilst most of those under 50 won't. Of course the under 18s won't have any protection as they won't have the vaccine. I don't neglect the problem of kids being off school so long, but leaving it another fortnight or so might have allowed more under 50s to get some protection before the inevitable increase in virus circulation caused by the schools return.
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