Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

[FridgeMagnet]

given the frequency with which the government has issued decisions guaranteed to make things worse it is a brave man or woman who would presume to think they won't fuck it up again

On the other hand, the flip side of what I was saying earlier about maybe not trying to work out how it might go wrong because I can't do anything about it, is that it doesn't matter if one is optimistic either. I mean I wouldn't go booking any flights or anything but why not have a little fantasy?

 

[Artaxerxes]

I posted this on my FB feed after wading through a deluge of doomy posts from self-professed lockdown experts insisting that everything is going to go wrong:

"Can all you Covid doom merchants just fucking zip it for a day? No one knows if the lockdown easing plan is going to work or stay on schedule, but how about you let people enjoy a few moments of happiness hoping it will? "

Given we’re all going through trauma and the governments killed close to 200k people paranoia and terror is somewhat justified.

We have a vaccine and it’s great but this is built on the backs of a year that has scarred and scared many of us to the bone.

 

[editor]

given the frequency with which the government has issued decisions guaranteed to make things worse it is a brave man or woman who would presume to think they won't fuck it up again

Oh, so you're going to respond by joining in with the doom? Thanks.

Given we’re all going through trauma and the governments killed close to 200k people paranoia and terror is somewhat justified.

We have a vaccine and it’s great but this is built on the backs of a year that has scarred and scared many of us to the bone.

So not even a few moments of happiness and optimism for those who desperately need it then?

 

[Pickman's model]

On the other hand, the flip side of what I was saying earlier about maybe not trying to work out how it might go wrong because I can't do anything about it, is that it doesn't matter if one is optimistic either. I mean I wouldn't go booking any flights or anything but why not have a little fantasy?

a little fantasy you say. but this isn't a little fantasy - that's like getting a spot of extra speed out of the enterprise. but this is the sort of fantasy that would have scotty rending his hair and wailing that you canna change the laws of physics, cap'n.

 

[editor]

On the other hand, the flip side of what I was saying earlier about maybe not trying to work out how it might go wrong because I can't do anything about it, is that it doesn't matter if one is optimistic either. I mean I wouldn't go booking any flights or anything but why not have a little fantasy?

I imagine there's a lot of people who desperately need a bit of optimism in their lives right now for the sake of their mental health.

Myself included.

 

[LDC]

Oh, so you're going to respond by joining in with the doom? Thanks.

So not even a few moments of happiness and optimism for those who desperately need it then?

FWIW, I've been pretty doom laden the last year, and I feel some level of optimistic now for the next months.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

we'll still be fucking about with this cycle of lockdown & release for many months to come because the government are so fucking shit.

On Marr yesterday John Edmunds was clear that once the schools are re-opened the R number will increase. It will be back above 1 rapidly. The theory, of course, is that the vaccine programme will mean that those statistically most likely to end up in hospital don’t as they’ve been jabbed. This means less pressure on the NHS.

The two unknowns in the theory are the extent of the ‘South African’ variant and also if there are, as there normally are, further mutations of the virus once the infection rate starts to increase again.

I think Pickmans is right that whilst the Tories might insist that this is the last lockdown, the reality is that it simply too early to say with any certainty. The plan to deal with outbreaks in a swift and targeted manner feels and sounds like the last time they claimed that they could do that. In addition to that I think the timescales remain, for politically expedient reasons, too ambitious. Plus I’d argue that the NHS needs a breather.

I hope I’m wrong, but I’m not convinced that we are going to be ‘substantively back to normal’ for a while to come...

 

[Pickman's model]

Oh, so you're going to respond by joining in with the doom? Thanks.

what i'd like to see is an end to this pandemic. as soon as possible. i would love to believe the vaccination programme will work. i am heartily sick of stopping in and the wariness involved in going shopping. but it's asking a lot, going beyond the bounds of credulity, to expect this administration to take us there. not when they've fucked things up on an industrial, indeed worldbeating, style for a year now. not when everything they touch turns to shit. i'd love to say otherwise, i really would. but when the government's on target to equal if not exceed the spanish flu death toll i can't muster the faith required to believe they've a snowball's chance in hell of pulling this off.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I imagine there's a lot of people who desperately need a bit of optimism in their lives right now for the sake of their mental health.

Myself included.

I get that I really do. My dad is 82 and sat in his own all day, every day. It’s starting to get to him (and he’s as robust as it gets) and it’s getting to all of us for that reason. Like you, like everyone, we all want some optimism. But this ‘the last lockdown’ stuff is really a hostage to fortune and I’m not convinced backed up the evidence. The timescales feel off to me at a number of turns and points and we don’t want a repeat of last year where everyone could see another lockdown was needed but Johnston held out against it for purely tactical reasons and now he’s decided that this is the last lockdown likely to be even more reticent to change course if it’s blindingly obvious that the plan isn’t working.

 

[magneze]

The plan seems ok. All pupils on 8th March seems a bit optimistic but otherwise it's all reasonable.

It appears to hinge on the assumption that any new variants are (a) handled by the vaccine or (b) squished by track & trace.

 

[elbows]

FWIW, I've been pretty doom laden the last year, and I feel some level of optimistic now for the next months.

I have a case of gradually creeping vaccine optimism, with caveats that I can turn the volume down on at moments like this.

And mental health reasons were the primary reason I tried to encourage people to take a break from fretting about the future for a time last summer.

 

[Wilf]

As mentioned upthread, I think Israel will provide a clearer picture of how/whether this will work. If we've got a largely vaccinated adult population by some point mid-Summer, what will be the nature of the beast? Large amounts of the virus circulating and significant numbers getting it (particularly if the Oxford vaccine has 60% efficacy), but much smaller numbers with symptoms and even smaller numbers getting hospitalised/dying? A fairly open society living with Covid, what would that look like? Something like living in a (rarely fatal) flu period... for the foreseeable future?

 

[beesonthewhatnow]

I'll fight you for it

FOH/MONS

 

[elbows]

It appears to hinge on the assumption that any new variants are (a) handled by the vaccine or (b) squished by track & trace.

Yeah that was the only bit where the spectre of local restrictions raised their head again in todays statement, along with withs like contain and suppress. Those are words they dont usually live up to, but I take the wait and see approach.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

The plan seems ok. All pupils on 8th March seems a bit optimistic but otherwise it's all reasonable.

It appears to hinge on the assumption that any new variants are (a) handled by the vaccine or (b) squished by track & trace.

Crowds back at football/clubs reopening on the planned timescale seems very optimistic to me. Surely you need to vaccinate everyone attending first?

 

[elbows]

A fairly open society living with Covid, what would that look like? Something like living in a (rarely fatal) flu period... for the foreseeable future?

For clues about that we can consider how much collective memory there is of the large number of people dying of flu over the period many celebrated as being 'the new millennium'. If you work in healthcare then maybe you remember it, but for most people my graphs of that period were treated with much surprise. I suppose I'll fish those out again at some point to illustrate this point, but not now.

 

[elbows]

Crowds back at football/clubs reopening on tbf planned timescale seems very optimistic to me. Surely you need to vaccinate everyone attending first?

Why? They arent aiming for zero hospitalisations and deaths, just levels well within coping limits. Significant wiggle room unless there is mutant doom.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Why? They arent aiming for zero hospitalisations and deaths, just levels well within coping limits. Significant wiggle room unless there is mutant doom.

See above. The ‘coping limits’ issue is one the two concerns I’ve got with the timetable. Go too fast and the NHS will get overwhelmed and back to lockdown we go. Far better to phase this in over a longer period so people are living under gradually easing restrictions and the NHS gets some breathing space

 

[Pickman's model]

See above. The ‘coping limits’ issue is one the two concerns I’ve got with the timetable. Go too fast and the NHS will get overwhelmed and back to lockdown we go. Far better to phase this in over a longer period so people are living under gradually easing restrictions and the NHS gets some breathing space

if not the 112,000 doctor and nurse vacancies filled

 

[maomao]

If the vaccine does reduce transmission enough as well as preventing illness it mostly seems reasonable to me. 'Last lockdown ever' is a stupid thing to say even if it could be because the government have shown themselves singularly lacking in foresight over the last year and a bit but then we knew they were thick bastards. And if it works it's not just them that got lucky it's us.

 

[LDC]

See above. The ‘coping limits’ issue is one the two concerns I’ve got with the timetable. Go too fast and the NHS will get overwhelmed and back to lockdown we go. Far better to phase this in over a longer period so people are living under gradually easing restrictions and the NHS gets some breathing space

The timetable for easing is pretty slow, with long enough gaps between changes to enable data to show what difference each bit of easing made. That and the vaccine roll-out, and we'll have the summer as well, makes me feel OK about the coming months. Not OK as it'll be back to normal, but OK as in death and hospitalisations rates will be low, and the impact on the NHS won't be unmanageable. Think about last summer, plus we've got the vaccine program. I'm cautiously optimistic.

 

[Pickman's model]

The timetable for easing is pretty slow, with breaks between changes to enable data to show what difference each bit of easing made. That and the vaccine roll-out, and we'll have the summer as well, makes me feel OK about the coming months. Not OK as it'll be back to normal, but OK as in death and hospitalisations rates will be low, and the impact on the NHS won't be unmanageable. Think about last summer, plus we've got the vaccine program. I'm cautiously optimistic.

you have an unusual amount of confidence that the government will stick by what they say even though they have much form of saying one thing and then doing another, of chopping and changing once everyone has organised themselves around what they've said.

 

[weltweit]

If the vaccine does reduce transmission enough as well as preventing illness it mostly seems reasonable to me. 'Last lockdown ever' is a stupid thing to say even if it could be because the government have shown themselves singularly lacking in foresight over the last year and a bit but then we knew they were thick bastards. And if it works it's not just them that got lucky it's us.

I agree, I think Johnson is making a political and tactical mistake calling these relaxations "irreversible", there are a number of events that could require future lockdowns and he isn't in control of them.

 

[Pickman's model]

it's really strange they're saying unis can go back on 8 march but libraries aren't allowed to open before 12 april.

seems to me there'll likely be a rise in the rate and number of infections from the three weeks between schools returning and the start of the easter holiday.

 

[teqniq]

Even though I want lockdown over this scenario seems quite likely:

COVID-19: 'Large wave' of infections if restrictions were eased too fast and some measures will be needed beyond 2021, scientists warn

Sir Patrick Vallance says there would be a risk of "flying blind" if all lockdown restrictions were lifted at once.

news.sky.com

 

[Sue]

a little fantasy you say. but this isn't a little fantasy - that's like getting a spot of extra speed out of the enterprise. but this is the sort of fantasy that would have scotty rending his hair and wailing that you canna change the laws of physics, cap'n.

...and then we discover we're fresh out of dilithium crystals.

 

[editor]

Even though I want lockdown over this scenario seems quite likely:

COVID-19: 'Large wave' of infections if restrictions were eased too fast and some measures will be needed beyond 2021, scientists warn

Sir Patrick Vallance says there would be a risk of "flying blind" if all lockdown restrictions were lifted at once.

news.sky.com

But no one is proposing that "all lockdown restrictions [should be] lifted at once."

 

[elbows]

But no one is proposing that "all lockdown restrictions were lifted at once."

Indeed the comments from Vallance and McLean are compatible with the governments approach, which is why they can say those things whilst remaining in their posts.

But I assume teqniq is talking more about the latter part of the article, the modelling and 52,000 fatalities by June 2022. I am reserving judgement about that at this time. Depending on how that level of death was spread out, it might still fall within a range the government thing is tolerable.

 

[Pickman's model]

Indeed the comments from Vallance and McLean are compatible with the governments approach, which is why they can say those things whilst remaining in their posts.

But I assume teqniq is talking more about the latter part of the article, the modelling and 52,000 fatalities by June 2022. I am reserving judgement about that at this time. Depending on how that level of death was spread out, it might still fall within a range the government thing is tolerable.

the government think any level of deaths is tolerable if it doesn't see them bumped out of office.

 

[elbows]

Not too long to wait now for the 'Whitty talks about balance' show.