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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

andysays said:
Breaking news on the BBC that a further 1.7 million people will be told to stay home and shield.

Implications for vaccine prioritization as well...
Click to expand...
More:

There is to be a large expansion of the number of people being asked to shield in England, the government has announced.
An extra 1.7 million people are expected to be added to the 2.3 million already on the list.
For some it will also mean they are now prioritised for vaccination.
This comes after a new model was developed that takes into account extra factors rather than just someone's health.
This calculation includes things like ethnicity, deprivation and weight to work out a person's risk of becoming seriously ill if they were to catch Covid.
Click to expand...

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: Extra 1.7m vulnerable added to shielding list

The move brings the total to 4m in England and means vaccinations will be prioritised more quickly.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
editor said:
More:



www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: Extra 1.7m vulnerable added to shielding list

The move brings the total to 4m in England and means vaccinations will be prioritised more quickly.
www.bbc.co.uk
Click to expand...
Wonder what that adds up to in terms of practical steps? Ethnicity is likely to be recorded on GP records (?), though obesity will be only if people have had discussions with their doc. Depravation - using post codes? Basically, who puts this list together if it does become a vaccine priority list?
 
I don't see how the Gov can be in any doubt the effectiveness of these lockdowns is due to everyone staying at home v the effect of vaccines?

We've had three lockdowns, each one hitting the numbers, two of the lockdowns there was no vaccine? The people who have been vaccinated have been shielding at home so they wouldn't help much with any statistics apart from deaths in those groups and they take weeks to filter through.

All I can think of that's left, it's either stopped being as easily transmitted or everyone who was going to from work, got it and generally recovered.
 
Sunray said:
I don't see how the Gov can be in any doubt the effectiveness of these lockdowns is due to everyone staying at home v the effect of vaccines?

We've had three lockdowns, each one hitting the numbers, two of the lockdowns there was no vaccine? The people who have been vaccinated have been shielding at home so they wouldn't help much with any statistics apart from deaths in those groups and they take weeks to filter through.

All I can think of that's left, it's either stopped being as easily transmitted or everyone who was going to from work, got it and generally recovered.
Click to expand...

I don’t think anyone near government has claimed that the effectiveness of this lockdown has been due to the vaccine.
 
Wilf said:
Wonder what that adds up to in terms of practical steps? Ethnicity is likely to be recorded on GP records (?), though obesity will be only if people have had discussions with their doc. Depravation - using post codes? Basically, who puts this list together if it does become a vaccine priority list?
Click to expand...

Not sure I've seen ethnicity on medical records tbh, but I have seen BMI and/or weight mentioned on loads. Unsure about whether discussion would need to have happened for that, although I suspect for most people it would have come up in the course of discussing the medical issue they were seeing the GP about.
 
I havent seen any claims that vaccination made lockdown work so I dont know whats being referred to at all.

The closest I could get to that sort of thing is that its pretty clear this government feels the need to find a light at the end of the tunnel to hype up when they are forced to lockdown. In the first wave lockdown they relied on spurious shit about tests being available from Boots and what wonderful options could be unlocked by alternative forms of mass testing. At least the second time around they could use vaccines as the light at the end of the tunnel, something with far more substance with far more potential to really change the game. If I stretch this idea a little then it is possible to imagine someone in government coming out with 'vaccine light at the end of the tunnel gave people the resolve needed to ensure this lockdown, reducing lockdown fatigue'.

In terms of claims about what difference vaccines are making, we are still at the very beginning of that in the UK. Claims will tend to be data-based and really quite specific, especially in this early period where data will start to show things to a limited extent in the weeks ahead. If all goes well then our data should be used to make the same sort of claims we have seen from Israel. This is probably the first example I've seen for the UK, expect much more of this sort of thing:

www.bbc.co.uk

Covid vaccine impact revealed in over-80s blood tests

More people in this age group in England now have detectable antibodies that can fight the virus.
www.bbc.co.uk
 
More on why I never really stop going on about hospital spread. It also reminds me of a time during the first wave where the likes of Whitty and Vallance would talk about how R is expected to be different in different settings, but resisted questions about what they thought R might be in hospitals at that time......

www.independent.co.uk

Spread of coronavirus within hospitals prolonged first wave fuelling a fifth of admissions

The R-rate for Covid-19 in hospitals could have been as high as 14, a new report reveals
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk

The scale of coronavirus spread within hospitals was so severe last year it may have prolonged the first wave and contributed to around 20 per cent of admissions, a new report has found.
Click to expand...

The numbers depend on where researchers draw the line on infections picked up in hospital. Patients who tested positive 15 days after admission would account for around 7,900 infections, 9 per cent of all hospital cases in the first wave.

But if the definition is expanded to those testing positive eight or more days after being admitted, the numbers rise to 14,635, or 16 per cent of total hospital cases.

With the least conservative definition, including all positives where patients have been discharged from hospital within the previous 14 days, then the numbers reach 36,000, or 41 per cent of hospital cases.
Click to expand...

The report continues: “Nosocomial infections, and onward community cases due to them, may lead to a substantial number of subsequent Covid-19 admissions, representing [approximately] 20 per cent of admissions in the tail of the first wave when community prevalence was considerably lower than for most of this wave.”

It adds that in total, the contribution of nosocomial infections, and the onward transmission resulting from them, may have accounted for 31.4 per cent of overall hospital infections, and suggests that “in the last quarter of the first wave the impact of nosocomial transmission may have been to prolong the epidemic potentially by several weeks.”
Click to expand...

The report’s authors calculate that the R-rate could have been as high as 14 in hospitals, and suggest that without the increased use of infection prevention measures and protective equipment by staff, the first wave of the pandemic would have been longer.
Click to expand...

An R of 14!!!!
 
cupid_stunt said:
Today's update -

First dose vaccinations now 15.3m

New cases - 9,765, overall a drop of 29% in the last week.

New deaths - 230, which is down 103 on last Monday's 333, that brings the 7-day average down to around 656 a day, a drop of 26.2% in the last week.
Click to expand...

Today's update -

First dose vaccinations now just under 15.6m

New cases - 10,625, overall a drop of 27.8% in the last week.

New deaths - 799, which is down 253 on last Tuesday's 1,052, that brings the 7-day average down to around 621 a day, a drop of 25.6% in the last week.
 
cupid_stunt said:
Today's update -

First dose vaccinations now just under 15.6m

New cases - 10,625, overall a drop of 27.8% in the last week.

New deaths - 799, which is down 253 on last Tuesday's 1,052, that brings the 7-day average down to around 621 a day, a drop of 25.6% in the last week.
Click to expand...

I havent posted my colour-coded graph for a while because there seemed less point in the current phase, and also because during a downwards trajectory it is even harder for us to separate out the genuine decreases from the most recent figures being artificially low due to delays in the reporting of deaths. But I shall share it today anyway, and probably tomorrow too, and then I wont do it again unless there is a change in trend such as the decline slowing notably.

Screenshot 2021-02-16 at 16.20.24.png
 
Since international travel and new variant issues are likely to be a subject of interest for a long time, I am going to selectively quote from a document that the Department for Transport and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office paper that SAGE considered on 21st January.

I have deliberately chosen to focus on one set of details that I hope will enable people that are still tempted to fall for false reassurances to avoid doing so. I will explain myself further if necessary but for now I'll assume the quotes speak for themselves. But basically Im talking about not confusing things that are actually done for surveillance purposes with measures that are genuine attempts to halt the spread of new variants. File under 'the horse has already bolted by the time we notice'.

www.gov.uk

DfT and FCDO: International importation, border and travel measures, 21 January 2021

Paper presented by the Department for Transport (DfT) and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).
www.gov.uk www.gov.uk

  1. By the time a case of a new variant is detected for the second time through sequencing approaches, there will already be a significant number of infections in the community. Not everyone infected with SARS-CoV-2 is tested, not all positive tests are sequenced, and delays occur at each stage.
    1. Assuming a local R of 1.5 for the B.1.351 variant first detected in South Africa, the first imported infection was estimated to have occurred between 7.6 and 10 days before the second case was reported in the UK (which was before the variant was reported by South Africa). (Pearson)
    2. At the time the second case of this variant was reported in the UK, there were already an estimated 78 (17, 230) people infected with this variant in the UK. (Pearson)
    3. The UK has a high level of international connectivity. This makes it more likely that at the time a new variant of concern is detected anywhere in the world, there will already be cases in the UK. This risk of this will be higher for countries with high volumes of direct international travel.
Click to expand...
 
elbows said:
I havent posted my colour-coded graph for a while because there seemed less point in the current phase, and also because during a downwards trajectory it is even harder for us to separate out the genuine decreases from the most recent figures being artificially low due to delays in the reporting of deaths. But I shall share it today anyway, and probably tomorrow too, and then I wont do it again unless there is a change in trend such as the decline slowing notably.

View attachment 254695
Click to expand...

Good to see that the pattern is holding for now anyway, thanks for the work you put in on these.
 
My friend passed away sadly over the weekend from Covid-19 aged 31. Went into hospital with an unrelated health condition, caught it while there and was too weak to recover. Really brought home how serious this situation is. My wife and I had it at the start and weren't worried but this now seems surreal. Apparently if I update my GP that I have a BMI of just over 40 I can get a jab in the next round or 2 of jabs.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
Not sure I've seen ethnicity on medical records tbh, but I have seen BMI and/or weight mentioned on loads. Unsure about whether discussion would need to have happened for that, although I suspect for most people it would have come up in the course of discussing the medical issue they were seeing the GP about.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm sure you're right, I'm probably confusing the monitoring type forms you fill in when you register with a practice (which will be anonymised) with individual records. :facepalm: Overall though, I'm wondering which lists/sources of information government are using when they send out these letters:

Medical records have been searched to identify high risk patients and they are now being sent letters by the NHS informing of them of their new status, which means they are entitled to statutory sick pay, prioritisation for online shopping slots and help collecting medicines.
Click to expand...
 
i_hate_beckham said:
My friend passed away sadly over the weekend from Covid-19 aged 31. Went into hospital with an unrelated health condition, caught it while there and was too weak to recover. Really brought home how serious this situation is. My wife and I had it at the start and weren't worried but this now seems surreal. Apparently if I update my GP that I have a BMI of just over 40 I can get a jab in the next round or 2 of jabs.
Click to expand...
Sorry to hear about your friend. My condolences. :(
 
Wilf said:
Yeah, I'm sure you're right, I'm probably confusing the monitoring type forms you fill in when you register with a practice (which will be anonymised) with individual records. :facepalm: Overall though, I'm wondering which lists/sources of information government are using when they send out these letters:
Click to expand...

Medical records are a total mess tbh. Different bits of the NHS use different systems, and there's no central system/register at all. That, the fact some patient's have opted out of record sharing, and then the NHS IT systems are like something from the mid-90s doesn't make for efficiency at all.

My brother was totally missed from the first shielding letters (kidney transplant) due to his hospital and GP records not linking up at all.
 
LynnDoyleCooper said:
Medical records are a total mess tbh. Different bits of the NHS use different systems, and there's no central system/register at all. That, the fact some patient's have opted out of record sharing, and then the NHS IT systems are like something from the mid-90s doesn't make for efficiency at all.

My brother was totally missed from the first shielding letters (kidney transplant) due to his hospital and GP records not linking up at all.
Click to expand...
So, there's a chance any extended shielding list or priority list for vaccines will involve GPs or others diverting time going through their records patient by patient (or not much better than that)?
 
Wilf said:
Wonder what that adds up to in terms of practical steps? Ethnicity is likely to be recorded on GP records (?), though obesity will be only if people have had discussions with their doc. Depravation - using post codes? Basically, who puts this list together if it does become a vaccine priority list?
Click to expand...

hopefully it includes proper financial support - the groups included in this are going to be much more likely to need it
 
Wilf said:
So, there's a chance any extended shielding list or priority list for vaccines will involve GPs or others diverting time going through their records patient by patient (or not much better than that)?
Click to expand...

From what I have heard GPs will be able to search their database records for various categories (age/illness/etc.) so it's not too time consuming, but accuracy will depends on how good their records are (obviously). It also depends on the info flow from other places in the system. When I worked at a hospital (small department) we at one point had a backlog of over 2000 letters to GPs about patients and their attendance at the department, some of which would have been about new diagnoses and treatments given.
 
I'm sorry i_hate_beckham - what a shock.

Waiting to hear about our neighbour over the road, last we heard a few days ago he was gradually being brought back to consciousness, he's been in hospital for 3 weeks, 1 on heavy ventilation and coma, and since then slightly lighter sedation.

BTW, very interesting account of Covid from this Spectator writer: 'Then the roof fell in': My Covid fight | The Spectator

He basically didn't feel very ill or have many symptoms, so didn't think it could be COVID, then suddenly deteriorated and had to take himself to hospital.
 
Ed Rooksby passed away the other day, I wouldn't say he was well known but did contribute to Jacobin, PTO, and other such organs and podcasts. He wrote a moving blog detailing his struggle with long covid it really is worth a read, tbh I found it really moving.
edrooksby.wordpress.com

ed rooksby

ideas are also material forces
edrooksby.wordpress.com edrooksby.wordpress.com
 
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