On 'zero covid'; the main issue I have with this is that the models don't seem to incorporate human behaviour. In that sense, they're only partially 'evidence based'. It's a bit like a Physics problem - 'given an infinite frictionless plane...'.
If you suspend democracy, close everything for half a year, block the borders NZ-style, and have perfect enforcement of household mixing etc, then provided we don't have some sort of animal reservoir or magic going on, eventually cases go to zero.
What I find frustrating about this line of argument is that democracy
has been suspended to a large degree, almost everything
was and continues to be closed for over half a year (if you add up the lockdowns, let alone the fact that even outside of lockdowns restrictions were sky high), restrictions on household mixing have been much stronger for longer than in even comparable European countries (afaiu) and compliance by the general population excellent, there has now been recognition that there may need to be some kind of border quarantine...
So by rights the UK should have been able to achieve near-zero covid three times over. It's just because restrictions have always come too late, been loosened too soon, isolation poorly overseen and not supported etc that we have ended up as what
I see as the worst of all worlds and what we could end up slogging along in for another year.
And even now it could still be done - quoting from memory, I think Deepti Gurdasani estimates that we would need another 2-3 months of really tight restrictions for much greater freedom, relative plannability and lessening the chance of dangerous virus mutations after that. I
do think that with political will and supported by the media it would be entirely possible to sell it to the public. Like with lockdown measures etc before, the appetite of the public for a strong containment or even elimination strategy has been imo completely underestimated or ignored by the government.
I guess it's similar to some other entrenched political positions - but I just cannot wrap my head around why not everyone can see this, including the likes of Tim Martin. Because to me, clearly Weatherspoons would stand a much better chance to be packed again safely, sooner, than dicking around for another however many months with half-arsed "beer garden, two households, compulsory Scotch egg-consumption" measures.
Just had another look at the Twitter thread, and she is indeed talking about extending current measures for about 2-3 months to get to <10 in 100000 cases (which I think comes under near-zero covid in much of the European debate, it's still quite different from the NZ model I think, and in fact I have question marks how well it could even work at that level - obviously it would need huge improvements in test and trace and supported isolation, as well as a willingness to go "hard and early" on measures again if things did threaten to go out of control again).
Quite the opposite of social distancing being extended for longer under a near zero covid strategy, I think social distancing measures and limits on gatherings and in-person teaching etc will need to stay in place for much longer under the current 'vaccination + half-baked measures' strategy.
On a personal level, I get it that people are ready to snap and take things into their own hands. I am also thinking about when and how I will be meeting with my non-cohabiting partner again (both living with other people), and that I might 'be forced' to do it outside of the regulations. But this is precisely because there is no plan. If I could be reasonably certain that I can in two or even four months time, I could hang in there. But at this rate, I can easily see a scenario in which schools re-open, shops are open, pub beer gardens and mini-camping festivals are allowed rule-of-six-styley, but it's still not allowed to stay over at another person's house. That's what's driving me crackers.
I agree that it is very unlikely to actually happen, but not imo because it's not an entirely viable strategy. Quick aside on Germany once again, and I guess an argument against my own position: A near-zero covid approach has received a lot of attention there recently. There are several very high profile, very well respected virologists and epidemologists who are getting a lot of airtime in talkshows and newspapers and even have got some support from business circles who understand that anything else is a false dichotomy - but it is still not getting any serious traction as the thing that's actually going to happen as far as I can see.