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Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion

What worries me is that after nearly a year of a truly calamitous handling of the crisis, the government are going to get off the hook and milk the recent impressive performances on testing and vaccines:

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zahir said:
I thought this thread was interesting on media coverage here.

Click to expand...


I've had a bit of a look at Deepti's twitter feed.

I think she means well, but is misunderstanding how the media works. There are obviously a load of blatantly false claims out there, like "schools don't spread coronavirus". Last year we had the good old "masks definitely don't work, don't wear them" stuff for a decent period. Obviously total and utter bollocks.

The media for the most part aren't performing a rigorous scientific analysis; the most charitable analysis of what they're doing is trying to get as much traffic as possible to keep the lights on. They're not playing the same game.

On 'zero covid'; the main issue I have with this is that the models don't seem to incorporate human behaviour. In that sense, they're only partially 'evidence based'. It's a bit like a Physics problem - 'given an infinite frictionless plane...'.

If you suspend democracy, close everything for half a year, block the borders NZ-style, and have perfect enforcement of household mixing etc, then provided we don't have some sort of animal reservoir or magic going on, eventually cases go to zero.

In the real world, I'm getting messages every day from old friends I haven't been in contact with for years, and almost everyone is ready to snap, turn off the news, and just start acting as if there is no virus. It's been almost 100 days since it was last legal for me to have a friend over for a cup of tea. The idea of lockdowns continuing for another six months or social distancing until 2022 is.. well, it might exist on paper, but in practice I'd be willing to bet significant amounts of money that compliance is going to fall apart before the Summer.

In that case then, it's only going to happen if vaccines and acquired immunity take R low enough during the better seasons that we see really low case numbers.

The more likely situations in my eyes are either high case numbers but low illness (if vaccines work for long enough), or an absolute bloodbath and potentially self-enforced isolation (if they don't).
 
I find this interesting
www.theguardian.com

How the beach 'super-spreader' myth may have hampered UK Covid reaction

News that no outbreaks were linked to beach trips highlights important message about outdoor transmission, says expert
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

It gives the government some wiggle room, allowing outdoor things like camping and hanging about in the park while still clamping down on indoor activity, which the author suggests is where all the infections occur. This would lift the mood of the country, keep the population onside while also keeping a lid on the R value.
 
Did anyone ever propose zero flu? A zero COVID policy makes sense when the prospects of death and severe disease are so great, but with a largely vaccinated population pushing those rates right down even when new variants are considered, it seems disproportionate compared to anything we've ever done previously to tackle death and disease, and I don't see it gaining public support at all - Melbourne just did a lockdown because of one quarantine hotel worker catching it and passing it on to others. I couldn't imagine Londoners tolerating that after the vaccination program was complete and the vaccine had been shown to prevent severe disease and death caused by that variant.
 
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hypernormalized said:
I've had a bit of a look at Deepti's twitter feed.

I think she means well, but is misunderstanding how the media works. There are obviously a load of blatantly false claims out there, like "schools don't spread coronavirus". Last year we had the good old "masks definitely don't work, don't wear them" stuff for a decent period. Obviously total and utter bollocks.

The media for the most part aren't performing a rigorous scientific analysis; the most charitable analysis of what they're doing is trying to get as much traffic as possible to keep the lights on. They're not playing the same game.

On 'zero covid'; the main issue I have with this is that the models don't seem to incorporate human behaviour. In that sense, they're only partially 'evidence based'. It's a bit like a Physics problem - 'given an infinite frictionless plane...'.

If you suspend democracy, close everything for half a year, block the borders NZ-style, and have perfect enforcement of household mixing etc, then provided we don't have some sort of animal reservoir or magic going on, eventually cases go to zero.

In the real world, I'm getting messages every day from old friends I haven't been in contact with for years, and almost everyone is ready to snap, turn off the news, and just start acting as if there is no virus. It's been almost 100 days since it was last legal for me to have a friend over for a cup of tea. The idea of lockdowns continuing for another six months or social distancing until 2022 is.. well, it might exist on paper, but in practice I'd be willing to bet significant amounts of money that compliance is going to fall apart before the Summer.

In that case then, it's only going to happen if vaccines and acquired immunity take R low enough during the better seasons that we see really low case numbers.

The more likely situations in my eyes are either high case numbers but low illness (if vaccines work for long enough), or an absolute bloodbath and potentially self-enforced isolation (if they don't).
Click to expand...

The issue isn't and hasn't ever really been about deaths and illness. The issue is about having a functioning health system. Which I'd go as far as saying was overwhelmed last month. Do you want to be able to have your child's broken arm taken care of, or when you crash your car you get patched up in hospital so you're not maimed for life from treatable issues?

When people say 'fuck it all' and do what they want. They are saying 'fuck you' to the workers who might save their life if their stupidity causes them to get really sick.

Plus, even if you go 'I'm doing shit I don't care' what are you going to do exact;y?
Stay in Tescos for an extra half an hour? Knock yourself out.
 
Sunray said:
The issue isn't and hasn't ever really been about deaths and illness. The issue is about having a functioning health system. Which I'd go as far as saying was overwhelmed last month. Do you want to be able to have your child's broken arm taken care of, or when you crash your car you get patched up in hospital so you're not maimed for life from treatable issues?

When people say 'fuck it all' and do what they want. They are saying 'fuck you' to the workers who might save their life if their stupidity causes them to get really sick.

Plus, even if you go 'I'm doing shit I don't care' what are you going to do exact;y?
Stay in Tescos for an extra half an hour? Knock yourself out.
Click to expand...

I'm happy to be your scapegoat, but we can have a more useful discussion if you address the points in my post. Ranting isn't going to solve anything.

As I've said, I think that one possible "timeline" here is that we end up with absolute carnage as people slowly snap mentally. I hope it doesn't happen, and I think the vaccines make it highly improbable, but it's not within my control.
 
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Wasn't ranting thanks.

hypernormalized said:
I'm happy to be your scapegoat, but we can have a more useful discussion if you address the points in my post. Ranting isn't going to solve anything.

As I've said, I think that one possible "timeline" here is that we end up with absolute carnage as people slowly snap mentally. I hope it doesn't happen, and I think the vaccines make it highly improbable, but it's not within my control.
Click to expand...

You're saying something doom is going to happen without saying what that something is? What are you and your mates going to do, break into pubs so you can go to the pub?

Me and my friends aren't snapping mentally and have started planning two camping festival party events for mid to late summer. Gonna be fun.
 
Sunray said:
Wasn't ranting thanks.



You're saying something doom is going to happen without saying what that something is? What are you and your mates going to do, break into pubs so you can go to the pub?

Me and my friends aren't snapping mentally and have started planning two camping festival party events for mid to late summer. Gonna be fun.
Click to expand...

Well, you seem to direct a load of anger at me, and what specifically I'm going to do, as if I have some sort of godlike powers over the world.

I'm just talking about potential outcomes and why I don't think 'zero covid' is viable.

It's just a possibility, there are other ones. Like the vaccines working perfectly, or actual herd immunity, or enforcement really ramping up with prison sentences etc. I'm not an oracle, I just don't think the current situation is sustainable.

That includes within hospitals, the staff (doing God's work by the way) must be running on fumes at this point. If this went on for years then eventually surely there ends up being a load of attrition as people just fall out of the job due to stress/trauma. I don't think it will, though.

I'm glad you and your friends are alright, festivals in the summer sound ace. Personally I have no chance of making it that far, but I salute you for your mental fortitude.
 
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My position is that 'zero covid' would have been desirable and possible if pursued from very early on in the pandemic. If it's tried now we'll have had the worst of all worlds; ongoing lockdowns for over a year but also with a massive death toll, and then now we'd also need a very strict lockdown to try and get to zero covid.

I tend to agree that it wouldn't be tolerated, either by people or business. It'd also be a complete, and probably untenable, about-face for the medical establishment and government as they've not given it any serious public consideration so far.
 
hypernormalized said:
On 'zero covid'; the main issue I have with this is that the models don't seem to incorporate human behaviour. In that sense, they're only partially 'evidence based'. It's a bit like a Physics problem - 'given an infinite frictionless plane...'.

If you suspend democracy, close everything for half a year, block the borders NZ-style, and have perfect enforcement of household mixing etc, then provided we don't have some sort of animal reservoir or magic going on, eventually cases go to zero.
Click to expand...

What I find frustrating about this line of argument is that democracy has been suspended to a large degree, almost everything was and continues to be closed for over half a year (if you add up the lockdowns, let alone the fact that even outside of lockdowns restrictions were sky high), restrictions on household mixing have been much stronger for longer than in even comparable European countries (afaiu) and compliance by the general population excellent, there has now been recognition that there may need to be some kind of border quarantine...

So by rights the UK should have been able to achieve near-zero covid three times over. It's just because restrictions have always come too late, been loosened too soon, isolation poorly overseen and not supported etc that we have ended up as what I see as the worst of all worlds and what we could end up slogging along in for another year.

And even now it could still be done - quoting from memory, I think Deepti Gurdasani estimates that we would need another 2-3 months of really tight restrictions for much greater freedom, relative plannability and lessening the chance of dangerous virus mutations after that. I do think that with political will and supported by the media it would be entirely possible to sell it to the public. Like with lockdown measures etc before, the appetite of the public for a strong containment or even elimination strategy has been imo completely underestimated or ignored by the government.

I guess it's similar to some other entrenched political positions - but I just cannot wrap my head around why not everyone can see this, including the likes of Tim Martin. Because to me, clearly Weatherspoons would stand a much better chance to be packed again safely, sooner, than dicking around for another however many months with half-arsed "beer garden, two households, compulsory Scotch egg-consumption" measures.

Just had another look at the Twitter thread, and she is indeed talking about extending current measures for about 2-3 months to get to <10 in 100000 cases (which I think comes under near-zero covid in much of the European debate, it's still quite different from the NZ model I think, and in fact I have question marks how well it could even work at that level - obviously it would need huge improvements in test and trace and supported isolation, as well as a willingness to go "hard and early" on measures again if things did threaten to go out of control again).

Quite the opposite of social distancing being extended for longer under a near zero covid strategy, I think social distancing measures and limits on gatherings and in-person teaching etc will need to stay in place for much longer under the current 'vaccination + half-baked measures' strategy.

On a personal level, I get it that people are ready to snap and take things into their own hands. I am also thinking about when and how I will be meeting with my non-cohabiting partner again (both living with other people), and that I might 'be forced' to do it outside of the regulations. But this is precisely because there is no plan. If I could be reasonably certain that I can in two or even four months time, I could hang in there. But at this rate, I can easily see a scenario in which schools re-open, shops are open, pub beer gardens and mini-camping festivals are allowed rule-of-six-styley, but it's still not allowed to stay over at another person's house. That's what's driving me crackers.

I agree that it is very unlikely to actually happen, but not imo because it's not an entirely viable strategy. Quick aside on Germany once again, and I guess an argument against my own position: A near-zero covid approach has received a lot of attention there recently. There are several very high profile, very well respected virologists and epidemologists who are getting a lot of airtime in talkshows and newspapers and even have got some support from business circles who understand that anything else is a false dichotomy - but it is still not getting any serious traction as the thing that's actually going to happen as far as I can see.
 
zora said:
And even now it could still be done - quoting from memory, I think Deepti Gurdasani estimates that we would need another 2-3 months of really tight restrictions for much greater freedom, relative plannability and lessening the chance of dangerous virus mutations after that. I do think that with political will and supported by the media it would be entirely possible to sell it to the public. Like with lockdown measures etc before, the appetite of the public for a strong containment or even elimination strategy has been imo completely underestimated or ignored by the government.
Click to expand...

But this is all ignoring the major issue of borders! Whatever timescale zero covid could be achieved within, it would then rely on quarantine for anyone entering the UK. Not just on a temporary basis - it would be until the rest of the world also achieved zero covid. Maybe there could be agreements with specific countries, where you had both opted for this approach. But essentially zero Covid only works if the whole world does it, or if the UK effectively lives with something like closed borders.

And that's not just an issue for people's personal freedoms to travel - it's a logistical issue too, getting freight in and out. Everyone keeps saying the UK's an island but it's not really - effectively we have several road links to the continent and at present we rely on those functioning, and functioning with accompanied freight. We are not comparable to somewhere like NZ at all.
 
zora said:
What I find frustrating about this line of argument is that democracy has been suspended to a large degree, almost everything was and continues to be closed for over half a year (if you add up the lockdowns, let alone the fact that even outside of lockdowns restrictions were sky high), restrictions on household mixing have been much stronger for longer than in even comparable European countries (afaiu) and compliance by the general population excellent, there has now been recognition that there may need to be some kind of border quarantine...

So by rights the UK should have been able to achieve near-zero covid three times over. It's just because restrictions have always come too late, been loosened too soon, isolation poorly overseen and not supported etc that we have ended up as what I see as the worst of all worlds and what we could end up slogging along in for another year.

And even now it could still be done - quoting from memory, I think Deepti Gurdasani estimates that we would need another 2-3 months of really tight restrictions for much greater freedom, relative plannability and lessening the chance of dangerous virus mutations after that. I do think that with political will and supported by the media it would be entirely possible to sell it to the public. Like with lockdown measures etc before, the appetite of the public for a strong containment or even elimination strategy has been imo completely underestimated or ignored by the government.

I guess it's similar to some other entrenched political positions - but I just cannot wrap my head around why not everyone can see this, including the likes of Tim Martin. Because to me, clearly Weatherspoons would stand a much better chance to be packed again safely, sooner, than dicking around for another however many months with half-arsed "beer garden, two households, compulsory Scotch egg-consumption" measures.

Just had another look at the Twitter thread, and she is indeed talking about extending current measures for about 2-3 months to get to <10 in 100000 cases (which I think comes under near-zero covid in much of the European debate, it's still quite different from the NZ model I think, and in fact I have question marks how well it could even work at that level - obviously it would need huge improvements in test and trace and supported isolation, as well as a willingness to go "hard and early" on measures again if things did threaten to go out of control again).

Quite the opposite of social distancing being extended for longer under a near zero covid strategy, I think social distancing measures and limits on gatherings and in-person teaching etc will need to stay in place for much longer under the current 'vaccination + half-baked measures' strategy.

On a personal level, I get it that people are ready to snap and take things into their own hands. I am also thinking about when and how I will be meeting with my non-cohabiting partner again (both living with other people), and that I might 'be forced' to do it outside of the regulations. But this is precisely because there is no plan. If I could be reasonably certain that I can in two or even four months time, I could hang in there. But at this rate, I can easily see a scenario in which schools re-open, shops are open, pub beer gardens and mini-camping festivals are allowed rule-of-six-styley, but it's still not allowed to stay over at another person's house. That's what's driving me crackers.

I agree that it is very unlikely to actually happen, but not imo because it's not an entirely viable strategy. Quick aside on Germany once again, and I guess an argument against my own position: A near-zero covid approach has received a lot of attention there recently. There are several very high profile, very well respected virologists and epidemologists who are getting a lot of airtime in talkshows and newspapers and even have got some support from business circles who understand that anything else is a false dichotomy - but it is still not getting any serious traction as the thing that's actually going to happen as far as I can see.
Click to expand...

I think you're describing a potentially tractable "if we could go back in time" state, but now, 300 days in, after being told the vaccines were the key, I just can't see it I'm afraid, though I'm perfectly willing to concede that I'm just more fragile than most.

I'm about a month or two away from turning off the news, putting my laptop in a cupboard, and going all in on collecting fines. Living like this just isn't worth it for me; society's approval becomes irrelevant when you don't feel part of it any more.
 
hypernormalized said:
In the real world, I'm getting messages every day from old friends I haven't been in contact with for years, and almost everyone is ready to snap, turn off the news, and just start acting as if there is no virus. It's been almost 100 days since it was last legal for me to have a friend over for a cup of tea. The idea of lockdowns continuing for another six months or social distancing until 2022 is.. well, it might exist on paper, but in practice I'd be willing to bet significant amounts of money that compliance is going to fall apart before the Summer.
Click to expand...
I feel your pain, and to be honest I've had weeks feeling like this and then moved back into some sort of acceptance... but you do realise that for many parts of the country it hasn't been legal to have a friend over for a cup of tea since July? Closer to 250 days than 100. And we've got through it, somehow.
 
lazythursday said:
I feel your pain, and to be honest I've had weeks feeling like this and then moved back into some sort of acceptance... but you do realise that for many parts of the country it hasn't been legal to have a friend over for a cup of tea since July? Closer to 250 days than 100. And we've got through it, somehow.
Click to expand...

Thank you.

Unfortunately, thinking about what other people are able to tolerate doesn't really help me. If I were under Chinese rule I wouldn't have survived to be the age I am now either. I'm not wired that way, I'd have either been dragged off to a camp or topped myself by now. So it goes.

I'm glad you're surviving. :)
 
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hypernormalized said:
Doesn't really help me. If I were under Chinese rule I wouldn't have survived to be the age I am now either. I'm not wired that way, I'd have either been dragged off to a camp or topped myself by now. So it goes.

I'm glad you're surviving. :)
Click to expand...
I do agree with you that compliance will increasingly be an issue as the cases fall. It is just inevitable, and yes I don't think the zero Covid people really think that through. For example, I haven't seen my best mate since last July and once cases have gone below about 50 per 100,000 I will be sorely tempted to persuade him to come over for the night just in case that is the only chance all year because there's another surge on the way. And I am being far more of a stickler for the rules than many people I know.
 
teuchter said:
But this is all ignoring the major issue of borders! Whatever timescale zero covid could be achieved within, it would then rely on quarantine for anyone entering the UK. Not just on a temporary basis - it would be until the rest of the world also achieved zero covid. Maybe there could be agreements with specific countries, where you had both opted for this approach. But essentially zero Covid only works if the whole world does it, or if the UK effectively lives with something like closed borders.

And that's not just an issue for people's personal freedoms to travel - it's a logistical issue too, getting freight in and out. Everyone keeps saying the UK's an island but it's not really - effectively we have several road links to the continent and at present we rely on those functioning, and functioning with accompanied freight. We are not comparable to somewhere like NZ at all.
Click to expand...

I was actually just pondering this while making my porridge, based on your remark from last night about border quarantine.

I haven't really got an answer to that - maybe in a way a reflection on how little this approach has been discussed in any seriousness and for its longer term implications.

I guess one could say it's a strange counter argument to make exactly at the moment when the UK is starting to be (semi)serious about actually implementing border quarantine! We may well be in a situation where there is border quarantine for half the world's countries for the next 1-2 (x?) number of years because of concerns about mutations and their effect on vaccices, in which case - why not go for near zero covid here in the meantime?

But yeah it'd be interesting to hear more about what Australia an NZ's longer term plans are in that respect and also how that might have developed over time. Maybe when they started all this, they had hoped that the rest of the world would also go for elimination and ultimately eradication - idk! However, it would be clearly crazy to say that because of where the majority of the rest of the world is at now, they shouldn't have followed their strategy.

Don't know if the freight issue really is one? Freight seems to have continued around the globe more or less regardless of each countries covid-status and strategy?

But not wanting to downplay it either. In fact this issue often seems to be the point where the discussion in Germany fizzles out as well. It's always the argument "but we are in the middle of Europe, many borders, people crossing borders for work..." then the zero-covid side says "yes, we would need a Europe-wide strategy".. and there it all goes tumbleweed...
Yet again, when push does come to shove, borders get closed after all. Curious situation in Germany/Austria right now, where borders have been closed (or restricted, with negative test needing to be shown, something like that) with Austria because of the situation in Tyrol, and of course Austria is pissed off, but Austria have internally restricted travel with Tyrol itself...

Clearly a not uncomplex issue.
 
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zora said:
Don't know if the freight issue really is one? Freight seems to have continued around the globe more or less regardless of each countries covid-status and strategy?
Click to expand...

The point here - which it seems to me, some people don't appreciate - is that although we don't have a land border with the continent, we move loads of stuff between the UK and the continent on individual lorries, either through the channel tunnel, or on the many short-haul ferry services that exist. In effect we have multiple land borders with significant numbers of drivers crossing them every day.

There is also a proportion of freight that arrives un-accompanied - that is, in shipping containers that are pulled off a ship at a port and then put on a lorry (or train).

But the big difference in NZ or Australia is that all of their freight arrives un-accompanied (as far as I am aware) because they just aren't close enough to anywhere for it to make any sense to pay a lorry driver to sit on a long-haul ship crossing along with their cargo.

It would be quite possible for the UK to change its entire setup (I'd be massively in favour of that anyway if it reduced the number of long distance individual-lorry journeys) so we didn't rely on drivers crossing the border with their consignments but it would need quite a lot of changes to infrastructure, logistics, supply chains and so on, and it's not something that you can change overnight. It would certainly be interesting to see an analysis of how quickly it could be changed though.

Freight has continued around the globe yes - not entirely without disruption - but only in the context of nearly everywhere being under various restrictions (except places which don't receive unaccompanied freight anyway). Maybe someone will come back at me with counter-examples of east-asian countries though?

But I think this is all a bit of a side issue, compared to that of telling people that effectively they can't travel abroad any more (possibly for many years) without time consuming, expensive and disruptive quarantine procedures. I can't see that being accepted, unless we find ourselves in a position where it has been demonstrated that we are unable to control things via vaccination and are having to rely on periodic lockdowns in the long term. And by "control" I mean reduce deaths and serious illness to levels that are non-zero, and probably higher than many posting here would be happy with.
 
Previously the only scenario in which I've considered zero covid being taken seriously by the UK establishment is if the vaccination programme backfires and fails in some way. A scenario I dont intend to look at more deeply unless there are signs that we and ending up down that route.

But I suppose there is another scenario, one where vaccinations and other stuff pushes the number of infections here, and in other key countries, down to such low levels that eradication starts to sound viable. Again I doubt I will go on about that much unless we find ourselves approaching such a scenario, but I may as well throw it out there.
 
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